Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Yup

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603400189787652099

now all of chickens followers are just gonna go and buy today /s

Great timing by Chicken, atleast he didn't decide to now wait for $75

 

[Nocturnal]

I doubt cartels want Semi's that phone home and track every movement. Law enforcement/governments would know exact locations and routes.

They'll probably be the last to go electric.

Don't forget about the long term relationship between Elon and the cartels though.
(man I miss the old style FUD)

 

[SOULPEDL]

150, not so much. For the TA-oblivious, it might be but 157 is the big one. That's the 0.618 retracement from ATH to the IPO price. Yes, we've fell that much. That's where a lot of decent tech stocks bottomed out earlier this year (eg. NVDA).

Slightly above it at 160 is the weekly 200 SMA. Historically that's marked the bottom for 80% of stocks during a severe crash.

Below it at 154 is the monthly 50 SMA. Also very strong support.

This area is the last bastion, technical-wise. Below it is no man's land.

Thank you. So we are in the pocket of max tension it would seem. In that case, I agree 150 is just a round number, but it sure got a lot of attention in threads.

I'm now wondering why 190 is hanging on this late in the week? People hoping for a pop tomorrow while max pain is only 172.5 today? And it's not being traded (or as much as we know so far).

Volume, but nothing really at 190?

 

[Artful Dodger]

If I had a dollar for every GigaFactory announcement rumor…..

Hey, anyone else think is time for short term leverage to the hilt for TSLA rebound to 170 or so over the next ten days?

Anyone? Anyone?

So you think "leverage" is the way forward for short term gains, but new factories are just rumors to be discounted? Alrighty then...

• Tesla Now Has an Exclusive Lane at a US-Mexico Border Crossing (Jul 21, 2022)
• Tesla's Musk eyes potential investment in Mexican border state -sources (Oct 24, 2022)
• Elon Musk pondering investment in Mexican state of Nuevo Leon: report (Oct 25, 2022)
• Tesla to announce Nuevo León factory in January 2023 (Dec 15, 2022)

Investing, like building a great company, takes time, and is best done by minimizing leverage. That way the pirates can't steal your shares during some artificial media-created crises.

Or, there's the casino.

 

[Speedr117]

Gary Black was just on CNBC and was great!

His last point was, that if Elon had NPMI that was negative, like a delivery miss, that the board wouldn't have allowed him to sell shares right now. Here's hoping!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Didn't we hear rumors of Elon trying to refinance his high interest loans using margin loans? What is the typical collateral needed to do something like that?

Musk bankers ponder Tesla margin loans to replace high-interest Twitter debt | Posted Dec 7, 2022

 

[CHGolferJim]

Sure like the volume - 40 million shares in 40 minutes. Fingers crossed that Tesla is buying the shares that Elon sold. That would align well with the news of the meetings this last week, and the end of year opportunity for Tesla to complete any buy-back. I can possibly accept that Elon wouldn't need to care too much about share price when he sells if he has a greater goal in mind (he sleeps on the couch and on the production floor at work and lives in a tiny house to ensure the bigger mission is achieved for instance), but I will never accept the idea of Elon selling without concern that either himself and/or Tesla retain a substantially controlling number of Tesla shares to avoid a hostile takeover down the road. He and the rest of the Tesla team have bled too much for too long to abandon that long-standing concern. Elon pushing the share price down with his sale to allow Tesla to buy back more shares at the end of the year would certainly be aligned with securing the greater mission.

That would be nice, especially if there is a reciprocal SP reaction. Do you think there is some restriction on Tesla buying directly from Elon to avoid all this kerfuffle?

 

[dl003]

Thank you. So we are in the pocket of max tension it would seem. In that case, I agree 150 is just a round number, but it sure got a lot of attention in threads.

I'm now wondering why 190 is hanging on this late in the week? People hoping for a pop tomorrow while max pain is only 172.5 today? And it's not being traded (or as much as we know so far).

View attachment 885321
Volume, but nothing really at 190?

View attachment 885323

Could be hedges for short.

Could be that since we dropped so furiously, these positions became pennies overnight and not worth the commission and spread to close them.

 

[EVDRVN]

Not sure it's by design or need. Again, what's with 150 and who set that line besides Chicken Little. Any chance Elon is trying to create maximum short interest before a blowout quarter? I'm only asking. I know most here want him to hang it seems. I'm asking if anyone else sees a trap brewing for shortz?

Tesla could double their numbers this quarter and it would only drive the price down for shorts

 

[Rarity]

SpaceX stocks are dual-class, Elon's shares have super voting rights which gives him ~70% of the votes with ~40% of the shares, so I doubt he cares much about dilution. But it's not impossible that SpaceX may have some trouble raise the amount they needed under the current macro environment and Elon may choose to sell TSLA to avoid a slowdown of SpaceX's progress.

His voting rights are even higher -- 78% voting, 42% ownership, as of September 6. See attached.

Your other points stand.

 

[Todd Burch]

The bright side of Elon selling all this TSLA stock is that the stock is less concentrated in a single person's position. When the stock is diversified among more investors, big drops from one person selling (like this) are less likely to negatively affect the share price as a whole in the future.

But damn Elon, next time coordinate selling your shares through a bank so they get consumed by buyers instead of dumping them on the open market.

 

[keydiver]

He sold now because he is not comfortable carrying debt and needed money. He told us this as well.

Like the margin account trader who liquidates to take out dangerous margin so he does not have to waste energy worrying about it, EM sells and damn the price.

But...doesn't he have to pay capital gains tax on the sale?? How does that factor into into this, vs paying high interest on the Twitter loans? At least the IRS is going to love him next year.

 

[dl003]

The bright side of Elon selling all this TSLA stock is that the stock is less concentrated in a single person's position. When the stock is diversified among more investors, big drops from one person selling (like this) are less likely to negatively affect the share price as a whole in the future.

But damn Elon, next time coordinate selling your shares through a bank so they get consumed by buyers instead of dumping them on the open market.

I'm still trying to figure out what this message might be, though.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla could double their numbers this quarter and it would only drive the price down for shorts.

Cheese and Rice... sour grapes anyone?

 

[betstarship]

Can someone confirm that it's $22.9B? Also, he has $100B+ left, yeah?

MSN

www.msn.com

Edit: Also, owns 47.4% of SpaceX at a $140B valuation. https://fcc.report/IBFS/SAT-MOD-20200417-00037/2274435.pdf

 

[Prunesquallor]

So you think "leverage" is the way forward for short term gains, but new factories are just rumors to be discounted? Alrighty then...

• Tesla Now Has an Exclusive Lane at a US-Mexico Border Crossing (Jul 21, 2022)
• Tesla's Musk eyes potential investment in Mexican border state -sources (Oct 24, 2022)
• Elon Musk pondering investment in Mexican state of Nuevo Leon: report (Oct 25, 2022)
• Tesla to announce Nuevo León factory in January 2023 (Dec 15, 2022)

Investing, like building a great company, takes time, and is best done by minimizing leverage. That way the pirates can't steal your shares during some artificial media-created crises.

Or, there's the casino.

Hoping this is true, but so far all reports seem to trace back to single Milenio report.

 

[traxila]

So you think "leverage" is the way forward for short term gains, but new factories are just rumors to be discounted? Alrighty then...

• Tesla Now Has an Exclusive Lane at a US-Mexico Border Crossing (Jul 21, 2022)
• Tesla's Musk eyes potential investment in Mexican border state -sources (Oct 24, 2022)
• Elon Musk pondering investment in Mexican state of Nuevo Leon: report (Oct 25, 2022)
• Tesla to announce Nuevo León factory in January 2023 (Dec 15, 2022)

Investing, like building a great company, takes time, and is best done by minimizing leverage. That way the pirates can't steal your shares during some artificial media-created crises.

Or, there's the casino.

Yes, I was specifically writing about the casino. And no, people should not leverage to the hilt for a short term move. Or even a long term move.

I believe in the new factories and know they will come, but I have seen previous proclamations over the past year that never happened. I will be very happy if Mexico is officially announced.

 

[elasalle]

Can someone confirm that it's $22.9B? Also, he has $100B+ left, yeah?

MSN

www.msn.com

Crucial Quote​

“The Twitter nightmare continues as Musk uses Tesla as his own ATM machine to keep funding the red ink at Twitter,” Wedbush analysts Dan Ives and John Katsingris wrote in a Thursday note to clients, referring to Twitter’s struggles to keep advertisers on the site. “Musk has managed to change the narrative of Tesla from the fundamental [electric vehicle] transformation story” to a story of Tesla funding Twitter, “which we believe will go down as the most overpaid tech acquisition in the history of M&A and remains a train wreck situation.”

 

[tslalala]

That or:
View attachment 885314

In this GIF, you've perfectly summed up all our experiences this year as TSLA investors!!

 

[Knightshade]

But...doesn't he have to pay capital gains tax on the sale?? How does that factor into into this, vs paying high interest on the Twitter loans? At least the IRS is going to love him next year.

Depends on which shares he sold.

All the options-exercise ones from the past year for example he already paid taxes on those setting a much higher cost basis, so he'd actually REDUCE his tax bill if he sold those since he'd have a loss on the sale. Obviously he also had shares for which he'd have a cap gain. We don't know how much of which kind was sold here.