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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I utterly disagree with this. Blind faith is probably the worst possible strategy.

Facts and logic and building rational models that can forecast the future will crush a faith-based strategy over the long run.

Before there was so many data-analytics products available in Internet tech, you largely had to have blind faith and a crazy side to think that your startup was going to work out from an early stage (also, connections to a far fewer set of investors and money than nowadays). For the most part, there were moats needed...like starting with superior tech and the best engineers to get anywhere. It's still largely needed in a general sense (so so many untapped industries), but not as much in Internet tech as it used to be from what I can gather. People can experiment and hypothesis test their way into successful startups nowadays.

To me, it's similar to investing as most retail investors have not been privy for decades to the type of data analytics and datasets that are available to analyze now. Nowadays, if you're just starting out, most young investors have the advantage and disadvantage of the internet. It's an advantage/benefit because of the information, it's also a disadvantage/weakness because too much info is paralyzing as well as separates people from faith in leadership of a team to do the extraordinary even when info/data says otherwise. Willpower, in other words.

It's built in, based off of experience, to have this type of mentality as an investor and entrepreneur.
 
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🤮. Since there is no equivalent reaction option on TMC. I am truly disgusted by his sentiment. The difference in avatar name between @Paracelsus and Chicken ****** says it all.
keep in mind that Ken (Chicken) was attacked and called TSLAQ by some of the uber bulls, hence the bitter retribution. Correct me if I'm wrong but TSLAQ would never buy the stock no matter how low it goes. Just like a failing marriage, everybody's got a hand in this mess. I, too, laughed at his absurd PT, not to his face, though. Needless to say, I'm not laughing anymore. While I'll never sell TSLA out of fear, I'd like to make more money timing the market so I can buy more shares for the long haul. Anyone having demonstrated success there, I'll pay them close attention.
 
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I utterly disagree with this. Blind faith is probably the worst possible strategy.

Facts and logic and building rational models that can forecast the future will crush a faith-based strategy over the long run.
IDK one way or the other, but right now I'm ready for a freekin' Christmas Miracle with TSLA SP.
 
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I don't want to link directly to the messages, but I did want to highlight that there are actually some people on social media openly claiming that they're attempting to manipulate TSLA to get revenge with Elon. Some quotes:

"Our relentless criticism is what set Tesla stock on course oblivion"

"I haven’t been tweeting so much criticism of Elon for no reason. I knew Tesla stock was DRASTICALLY overvalued. Speculative stocks are based on confidence. Undermine the confidence, and the stock falls. All this criticism is about strategically undermining his power."

"Folks, we’re well on our way to Elon getting margin called on the Tesla stock propping up [another company], meaning multiple companies crash."

"Because if we want [another company] to return to sanity, that means new leadership. And the most expedient way to do that is to help investors understand how overvalued Tesla stock is. Musk gets margin called = Banks own [another company], not Elon."

And this is just one individual with a large following. I think the combined efforts of people like this could be having a measurable impact.
 

So this chicken guy is buying, now that we’ve reached his price target of $140 (I thought he already said a few days ago he bought back in at $149, but maybe that was just nibbling). One advantage for those who dislike him: we’ll now find out whether he is an oracle (if this is the bottom) or was just lucky and goes down with the rest of us.
 
Im with you on this. Luckily im about 8 years from retirement so $TSLA should be the most valuable company by the time im ready to call it quits. I want to say we've been through these downturns before and will come back even stronger but this is the most detached from reality i have ever seen the SP.

I would be hard pressed to say whether the share price was more detached from reality in May/June of 2019 or right now, but I would lean towards 2019 being a bit more disconnected.

Taking into account how different Tesla is now, from the Tesla then, I would say the two periods are remarkably similar in terms of share price disconnect from reality, but it must be remembered that we are only about a third of the frothy all-time highs. In the bigger picture, that's not much. Countering the view that the all-time high was rather frothy is the fact that over a year of impressive growth has occurred in production capacity as well, with plenty more unrealized growth in capacity that is pretty much a given. If this is "all" there was, the market could almost be forgiven for the low valuation.

However, there is so much unrealized growth that Tesla has already proven is economically viable, lucrative even, just waiting on the sidelines. Namely, the energy business that is just beginning to show the shoots of new growth. Beyond simply selling battery storage, it's the energy networks like what Tesla is in the nascent stages of in Texas that I think offer nearly unlimited potential. Come spring, these shoots could grow into branches and then leaves which would be worthy of accommodating in growth models. And this will likely be followed up by surprising success in an entirely new automotive market segment, light trucks. If the manufacturing cost structure of Cybertruck pans out as expected, the results will blow away what pretty much every automotive analyst expects. Realized volumes of these new growth opportunities will all come down to the batteries so continue to watch the ramp of 4680 cells with the understanding that this is long-term initiative with long-term advantages, just as was revealed on Battery Day.

Personally, I see Tesla's success in these markets as pretty solid, high-probability results based upon how Tesla thinks about problems like this and their track record of being able to leverage their low-cost structure to implement the solutions they develop in a profitable manner. Additionally, every share of TSLA potentially contains huge potential value in things that I believe are still likely, even if less certain. Things like FSD and affordable humanoid robots that Tesla is currently hard at work developing in a cost-effective manner.

These things make the current walk-walk down of TSLA shares look quaint. No one knows when it will end, but my conviction is strong that this quarters growth and developments will have us climbing out of this hole, even if it takes a year or more to start testing old highs again. The big picture tells us that the world economy is in the transition from the age of oil and gas to an economy based on sustainable energy, not because we know we have to, but because it's increasingly cheaper and more affordable. The fact that we know we must make the transition simply provides additional tailwinds to the speed of the transition that is really driven by economics at its core. I can think of no other company that will benefit more strongly, and with more certainty than Tesla.
 
what degrees and work experience? I thought he was a pilot?

Anyway degress (does/doesn't) matter in Wall Street - it's a level playing field and he has definitely acquired trading skills.
He sold for macro related items and did kinda sell at the top (good for him).

However, repeat after me - " Without Elon selling all year long" - we would never have been at $140. cheers!!

+ we need to survive 8-9 more trading days ...
+ can't feel like victim and be mad at Elon selling either .. but maybe there were better ways to do it. ...
and I stated his selling aided the bulls...not the twitter twaddle
 
So those weekly China Tesla sales numbers released today were pretty 💩 .

Fear not though. Forgive me for repeating myself, but China is right in the middle of an absolute nightmare (for them) as the BIG-C is washing over the country.

This will pass in short order though, and as they get used to the “new normal”, normal economic activity will resume, with Tesla sales returning to normal also. The next big China focused delivery period (late Feb through March end) should be back to normal one would assume.
The comp is BYD. Though not sure if BYDs numbers include hybrids, which have a sunsetting tax incentive on 12/31. Anyone tracking care to chime in?
 
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Partly emotional on my part.

Partly..it’s just gotta be done. I don’t want an unhinged, Qanon, highly political freak show as CEO of a company I’m invested in.

The board? They allowed the above to happen without lifting a finger. They just gotta go.

And I don’t care how good Tesla is doing now, the brand is getting poisoned because of the CEO. Under the current management TSLA and TESLA is going to be seriously damaged over the next 3 years.

Jmho.

The board better know something we don’t. The silence is only excusable if Tesla is going to pull a huge rabbit out of its hat after q4. If that doesn’t happen, expect shareholder lawsuits against Elon for not fulfilling his fiduciary duty as Tesla ceo and board member. And also lawsuits against the board for allowing Elon to do it.
 
keep in mind that Ken (Chicken) was attacked and called TSLAQ by some of the uber bulls, hence the bitter retribution. Correct me if I'm wrong but TSLAQ would never buy the stock no matter how low it goes. Just like a failing marriage, everybody's got a hand in this mess. I, too, laughed at his absurd PT, not to his face, though. Needless to say, I'm not laughing anymore. While I'll never sell TSLA out of fear, I'd like to make more money timing the market so I can buy more shares for the long haul. Anyone having demonstrated success there, I'll pay them close attention.

There’s also a thing called luck.

All wisdom in the history of the market says you cannot consistently time the market (unless maybe you’re a quant fund like renaissance with army of Ivy League phd a). Also goes in the face of some of the greatest investing legends in history. But hey, if you want to listen to a YouTuber with a limited track record like that (who no matter what the market does makes money off advertisement revenue for clicks) then you go for it.

Greed slaughters. You saw it in the options thread when people were doing bull put spreads during the peak and who are selling covered calls right now during multi year lows. But hey, Chicken has the crystal ball for the future and you too want to time the market 👍 go ahead.
 
I don't want to link directly to the messages, but I did want to highlight that there are actually some people on social media openly claiming that they're attempting to manipulate TSLA to get revenge with Elon. Some quotes:

"Our relentless criticism is what set Tesla stock on course oblivion"

"I haven’t been tweeting so much criticism of Elon for no reason. I knew Tesla stock was DRASTICALLY overvalued. Speculative stocks are based on confidence. Undermine the confidence, and the stock falls. All this criticism is about strategically undermining his power."

"Folks, we’re well on our way to Elon getting margin called on the Tesla stock propping up [another company], meaning multiple companies crash."

"Because if we want [another company] to return to sanity, that means new leadership. And the most expedient way to do that is to help investors understand how overvalued Tesla stock is. Musk gets margin called = Banks own [another company], not Elon."

And this is just one individual with a large following. I think the combined efforts of people like this could be having a measurable impact.
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