Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

If it is too early to say, why do you anyway? Too little noise here ?

Because numbers from

• Sweden
• Italy
• Austria
• Spain

do seem lower than they should be, given that we are talking about December, the strongest month in the whole year.
It's napkin math but I feel we miss a couple thousands cars with those 4 countries alone.

 

[Matias]

TSLA is down simply because the actual numbers were about 5% lower than what Wall Street analysts wanted them to be.

Correction; numbers were lower than Tesla guided.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Demand is not a problem, the high price of the car is the problem.
Just lower the car price as input costs decline to expand sales.

Would mostly agree except for in China. Not sure what is going on over there in relation to China and demand locally.

Nio just posted way higher Dec deliveries. Covid didn't seem in cause their demand to collapse. Same with BYD (yes I know they mostly sell much cheaper EV's and hybrids but they still didn't have a huge drop in demand for Dec). I completely admit the China demand situation blind sighted me and I'm not entirely sure what Tesla is going to do about it. Price drops don't seem to be helping while other China EV makers seem to be doing just fine

I haven't heard anything over the past 6 months to suggest Tesla's brand has diminished in China. So a bit of a loss for words as to what is going on over there

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pow. Straight in the kisser.

$110.86 is the magic SP they'll try to avoid the 'uptick rule' today. Walk it down to within a buck then hold it there is their pattern.

 

[mongo]

From what I understand, leases get the credit no matter what the price is. Is this correct? Is so could Tesla offer a 1 month lease and customer buys after a month?

Even better, lease for 2 years under the terms that Tesla sells it to you and you capture the $4,000 used car incentive.

It's not that simple.
Per IRS FAQ, you can't set up the lease to effectively be a purchase. Topic G — Frequently Asked Questions About Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicles Credit | Internal Revenue Service
The used vehicle credit has a max MSRP of $25k and purchaser can't be original user.
Topic D — Frequently Asked Questions About the Eligibility Rules for the Previously-Owned Clean Vehicles Credit | Internal Revenue Service

 

[samppa]

Indeed:

Tesla Model Y Standard Range reappears in website source code, is it finally going to be released? | Drive Tesla Canada (2023-01-02)

Tesla Model Y Standard Range reappears in website source code, is it finally going to be released?

Tesla looks like it might finally be getting ready to add the Model Y Standard Range to its online configurator after code for the new variant was added to the website on New Year’s Eve. […]

driveteslacanada.ca

This is likely the 4680-cell/structural pack Made-in-Texas variant with 279 mile (449km) range and 5 second 0-60mph acceleration, as previously listed by the EPA. Could be enough cells for 1K/wk volume right away.

Basic Model Y sold in europe is RWD with a 60kWh LFP pack. Acceleration is 6.9 seconds, wltp range 455km. It's not a SR version, it's called just "Model Y".

Why wouldn't they just introduce the same to usa?

 

[NicoV]

Because numbers from

• Sweden
• Italy
• Austria
• Spain

do seem lower than they should be, given that we are talking about December, the strongest month in the whole year.
It's napkin math but I feel we miss a couple thousands cars with those 4 countries alone.

It’s clear that there was a logistics issue: Belgium+The Netherlands combined had 50% of their yearly volume delivered in december (Almost 4000 cars!). That were the only 2 countries that could realistically absorb the volume from the 2 ships that reached Zeebrugge on Christmas.

 

[vikings123]

Let's make an appointment to talk some more tomorrow? How is 09:47 EST for you? /s

(433K shares of TLO traded on Tradegate)

I don't know if today's action gives you something to chew on but like I said Frankfurt TL0 trades mean nothing..

BTW I waited for you on the zoom call but looks like you are busy

 

[thx1139]

Tesla did setup a lobbying presence in DC and a simple google search tells me that they spent about half a million last year. This is not even peanuts, but more like skin of peanuts. If anything this is a priority over and above spending any money on ads.

That said all this spending is for naught in the current admin, if the rhetoric elsewhere keeps up.

To influence DC you need to have friends and lobbyists. Elon does nothing to create friends in DC, more the opposite he tries to create more enemies, and Tesla lobby effort is rather small. Kind of reminds me of Microsoft in the 90s. Microsoft did no lobbying. Bill Gates didnt believe in it so Sun, Oracle and others lobbied for the anti-trust investigations Microsoft went through. Microsoft and Bill Gates learned. Will Tesla and Elon learn that they should make friends?

Still I do believe the PHEV uproar, as much as I dont support it is not consequential to Tesla. Those cars already were eligible for the tax credit pre-IRA. Tesla could make adjustments for Model Y and Model 3 LR. Hasnt Tesla been preparing for this since they gave the list to the IRS about which car qualify?

 

[Knightshade]

Still early to say, but Europe numbers seem underwhelming enough to actually give credit to the theory that many of these cars are still in transit:

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

We'll only know for sure in February.

What happened to a couple days ago BTW when Alex V was in here saying he had first hand sources that EU deliveries for Q4 were really good but couldn't say why he knew?

 

[Christine69420]

I talked to a few Tesla white collar employees over the holidays.

They are indeed pissed about the share price crash. It absolutely does bother them signficantly.

Surprisingly to me, they do indeed blame Musk for the share price crash. Too much so IMO, as they don't even consider macro condtions changing.

So I view internal sentiment as not the best.

So have I as it happens. And they were thrilled for the opportunity of buying in at such a low price. So be careful thinking that everyone think the same as the guys you met.

 

[STUtoday]

View attachment 891784

Mainland China is LHD.

Yes, that is the point that was being made in the original post. The cars slated for export, on the docks, are RHD and can't just be sold into LHD/local markets.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Basic Model Y sold in europe is RWD with a 60kWh LFP pack. Acceleration is 6.9 seconds, wltp range 455km. It's not a SR version, it's called just "Model Y".

Why wouldn't they just introduce the same to usa?

There's zero chance of importing a MiC Model Y for sale in the USA. Elon's said so. If they have to get this done quickly, they're best off to go with a design that's already approved by the EPA.

Drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer has been speculating for weeks that the large inventory of battery packs he sees building up at Giga Texas is for this new version.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's not that simple.
Per IRS FAQ, you can't set up the lease to effectively be a purchase. Topic G — Frequently Asked Questions About Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicles Credit | Internal Revenue Service
The used vehicle credit has a max MSRP of $25k and purchaser can't be original user.
Topic D — Frequently Asked Questions About the Eligibility Rules for the Previously-Owned Clean Vehicles Credit | Internal Revenue Service

The only conditions are that:
- the lease term needs to be short enough not to be an effective sale
- it can't be set up so the customer has a large incentive to buy the vehicle at the end of the lease term.

So, all Tesla should need to do is have a typical lease deal.

 

[traxila]

Would mostly agree except for in China. Not sure what is going on over there in relation to China and demand locally.

Nio just posted way higher Dec deliveries. Covid didn't seem in cause their demand to collapse. Same with BYD (yes I know they mostly sell much cheaper EV's and hybrids but they still didn't have a huge drop in demand for Dec). I completely admit the China demand situation blind sighted me and I'm not entirely sure what Tesla is going to do about it. Price drops don't seem to be helping while other China EV makers seem to be doing just fine

Tesla is playing at a very high price point for Chinese market.

Hybrid subsidies expired on the 31st I believe.

The answer can be as simple as export, export, export and do the best you can in local market while you push forward with lower priced model. Tesla had its hands full dedicating all resources to churn out MY and M3 AFAP with ridiculous margins. They said so in the beginning of 2022. It did not make sense to focus on anything else when ramping was the first order of business. Does any reasonable investor believe that Tesla would have missed targets if COVID did not obliterate work flow and supply chains in China?

If demand for current models really is cresting (and by that I mean at around 2M per year), then time for Cybertrucks and cheaper models.

BTW, Tesla only builds inventory when it cannot sell its cars. Usually it has zero inventory, just like every other real car company in the world /s.

It is all about the batteries, and I don’t think any legacy OEMs can simply overflow excess to their energy division.

Channeling my inner @TheTalkingMule ! We close flat! Or almost….

 

[thx1139]

Basic Model Y sold in europe is RWD with a 60kWh LFP pack. Acceleration is 6.9 seconds, wltp range 455km. It's not a SR version, it's called just "Model Y".

Why wouldn't they just introduce the same to usa?

Can they make enough? Freemont wont grow much, well at least fast and Texas still ramping. Do they end up cutting more Model Y LR sales and not making up the profit on more sales of the lower margin Model Y SR?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't know if today's action gives you something to chew on but like I said Frankfurt TL0 trades mean nothing..

As I said on here on Monday morning:

Won't matter in New York on Monday Tuesday. If you ask a bear what's the fair price, they always say "LESS THAN THAT!"

Meanwhile, Frankfurt found a support level: (~122.17 USD at 18:47 CET)

View attachment 891432

So it is what it is.

BTW, I'm not on Zoom so you won't connect.

 

[samppa]

Can they make enough? Freemont wont grow much, well at least fast and Texas still ramping. Do they end up cutting more Model Y LR sales and not making up the profit on more sales of the lower margin Model Y SR?

Good question. These I believe have the BYD Blade battery.

 

[bkp_duke]

In actual news, Tesla continues to execute and plan for the future. Locking up Lithium supplies for future growth.

Tesla Locks Battery Material Supply; This Lithium Stock To Benefit

The agreement secures Tesla's lithium supply through 2025.

www.investors.com

The contract is very interesting, as it is basically billed on spot pricing, but a guaranteed lock up for volume.

"According to the terms, SC6 pricing will be set by a formula based on average market prices for lithium hydroxide monohydrate at the time of each shipment to Tesla during the agreement."

 

[JRP3]

Only the best and brightest of the ruling class are involved in writing bills like the IRA.

We certainly do have a different opinion of those working for the government. There are also actual facts such as those posted below:

No action was taken was done to specifically exclude the 5 seat Y. Its exclusion is a default state of being.

The $80k MSRP is for SUV, vans, and pickup trucks which are all versions of 'light truck'.
The Federal Law, since 2009, has allowed a vehicle with minimal ground clearance to qualify as a 'light truck' if it has 3 rows of seats where 2 rows fold flat for cargo (only reason a 7 seat Y qualifies). 49 CFR § 523.5 - Non-passenger automobile.
This section of the law is under NHTSA section.
The EPA definitions also rely on this regulation (light ttuck vs passenger vehicle).