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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
What numbers did it look like he was referencing to you here right before end of Q4 in the middle of a discussion specifically about that topic? (Alex himself is more than welcome to clarify of course, but IIRC a mod specifically warned him about this post because it appeared to be hinting at NMPI that was about the exact thing you think it wasn't about)
But couldn't EPA classification have been used?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I don't think that's too easy to do in the near-term. Tesla likely already has firm orders in place with its cell suppliers for the next year's production. Tesla won't cancel those.
Further, there's no fast'n'easy way to order up thousands of new LFP packs for a Model Y RWD. That'd again likely be over a year's lead time to get that volume of new packs.
Personally, I think it'll be the 4680 packs and Giga Texas, and Tesla will have to adjust some prices to keep sales moving. This latter item will come at the expense of lost sales for competitors, as buyers hoover up the obvious bargains on the best EV in the world.
Cheers!
FSDtester#1
Large Member
Or NHTSA, both have it as a SUV, check the window sticker
petit_bateau
Active Member
On that basis, any high value employee who got hired in the last ?? two ?? years might well be thinking they could be out of the money for say ?? one ?? year from here. That would be three years from date of hire. Burn out rate on anyone standing near Musk seems to be quite high. Trouble inbound at some point on the human side at a guess.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
No, Q1 P&D report will likely come out about Apr 2nd, 2023, while Investor Day is Mar 01:
Martin Viecha on Twitter: "Mark your calendars for Tesla’s Investor Day on March 1st! (not the same as the Annual Shareholder Meeting) Some of our institutional and retail investors will be able to attend in person (details to follow) and see Giga Texas production line & meet management." / Twitter
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Speaking of GM, I noticed the Cadillac Lyric also has the $55K price cap and will not get the standard subsidy.
Really don't buy into conspiracy theories and Tesla has many ways around this issue on the Model Y. i.e build 7 seaters at the same price, introduce a RWD SR at $50K, include the subsidy in a lease deal. I would like to see all of them.
The standard Model 3 is looking like a real steal at 40K after the incentive. They will sell like crazy.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, Gary is already trying to prove his worth for that juicy BoD job... /s
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Demand Concerns are Shortsighted - Zoom Out
The Model 3 and Y account for 95% of Tesla’s delivery volume these days. As far as most customers are concerned, the 3&Y are essentially the exact same car design with two slightly different options for size and shape. Indeed, when revealed in 2019 the Model Y was basically sold as “Here’s a bigger Model 3 that has 75% of the parts in common.” The differentiation was so minimal that in 2019 after the reveal most pundits thought that the Y would barely generate any additional demand because it was nothing new or special. 3&Y have exactly identical interiors, software, stereo systems and so on. A untrained eye can't even to tell the difference in the exteriors on sight unless the vehicles were parked right next to each other so the height difference is more obvious. Most customers deciding between the two models really are just deciding on whether the Y’s extra cargo capacity and higher roof justify the price premium.
Tesla just built 420k cars in the 3/Y platform in a single quarter, or almost 1.7M annualized. Berlin and Texas have “>250,000” per year nameplate production capacity. If they combine for 600k Ys per year production rate by the end of 2023, the 3/Y will be at a total annualized run rate of 2.3M.
This success is unprecedented, to say the least.
The Toyota Corolla’s best year ever was 2015 with 1.34M units sold, which still today stands as the all-time world record for most units sold of any vehicle model in a single year. The 3/Y family just nearly matched this record in 2022 with a combined 1.30M units made and 1.25M delivered, and without Shanghai shutdowns the Corolla’s record would have been surpassed. In 2023, the Y by itself will come close to the Corolla's 2015 record, and might actually beat it if production ramps go well; if not, in 2024 for sure. Even after adjusting for inflation, the Y is priced more than double the average Corolla price in 2015.
Tesla is achieving this with ~30% gross margins for 3/Y that no one else can come close to. At the latest factories with the latest tech reducing cost, Ys will be earning 40-50% margins for a while until prices come down. Tesla could eventually push drastically more volume of 3s and Ys by reducing prices further as costs improve and as margins are gradually leaned out. This has actually been the plan the entire time.
What is Tesla not doing thus far for accomplishing this with 3/Y:
So, the Model Y is by far the most economically successful vehicle model ever, and it’s not even close. The 3&Y put together as one very closely related family are even more dominant. The numbers don’t lie.
Thus, Tesla has a viable path to selling millions 3/Y cars each year at 20% gross margin or better.
Tesla crushed the high-end luxury market with the S&X. Then they crushed the medium-luxury mid-sized sedan and crossover SUV markets with 3&Y. They appear poised to crush the pickup truck and large SUV market with Cybertruck. Yet Tesla is still not even touching most of the overall vehicle market. For example, they don't sell any economy cars in any segment, nor any boxy crossovers like the RAV-4, coupes, vans, minivans, small hatchbacks, small sedans, or commercial trucks (except for a handful of full-sized semis). There’s an order of magnitude more opportunity out there for Tesla to claim. This is why the demand will probably be there for the goal of 20M units sold per year even without autonomous driving ever working out.
Will Tesla’s success extend to other vehicle shapes and sizes, or to cheaper cars with less luxury? I think all signs point towards a resounding “Yes”. The same reasons why 3/Y is so successful will apply equally to other segments. For example:
All of this is happening in the macro environment of humanity’s dawning awareness of the value of EVs and of the severe dangers, both geopolitical and environmental, of continued fossil fuel dependence. EV demand continues its unabated exponential growth and governments policies around the world are tilting the balance ever more in favor of EVs over ICEVs every year. That’s good news for the world’s largest and best producer of EVs.
Vegas Loop is then the dark horse. It is effectively a factory that mass produces first impressions of Tesla vehicles for people who are in an entertainment wonderland intentionally and expertly engineered to put them in the mood for openness to new experiences and for craving novelty and stimulation. This is exactly the psychological state you want potential customers to be in when introducing them to a new product they might be otherwise disinterested in or skeptical of. They need to have their mental guard down and be curious enough to, for example, ask the driver about the car while riding in it. Furthermore, at some point when the Teslas drive people autonomously through the tunnels as robotaxis, the experience is going to blow people’s minds. They’ll post about it on social media, tell everybody about it as a highlight of their trip when they get home, and probably remember it for the rest of their lives. If we look out to 2024 or however long it takes to get robotaxis going in this simplified, secured, closed-loop system, we must bear in mind that millions of people will have this robotaxi ride be their first ever experience in a Tesla. Most people remember losing their EV virginity but this is going to be a whole new level of astonishment and delight for the next wave of converts. All of this this is still deeply underappreciated by the market. The Vegas Loop is small now, but in a few years it will sprawl out across the entire heart of Las Vegas, the entertainment capitol of the Western Hemisphere with 42 million visitors per year and a strong long term tourism growth trend. Miami-Fort Lauderdale is close behind for both tourism and getting their own Loop. Construction and daily operation of existing segments is occurring right now and people keep forgetting about it, even TSLA investors who follow Tesla stuff daily. This project doesn’t generate daily news but it does generate thousands of first rides daily for people who have never even sat in any EV before.
Demand for 3/Y will experience short-term fluctuations, and Tesla may offer temporary discounts for end-of-quarter inventory clearance or to build good will, but the trajectory over the long term is incredibly favorable. Myopic focus on quarterly results and Elon’s politics causes investors, especially institutional folks who control most of the float, to miss the bigger picture.
The Model 3 and Y account for 95% of Tesla’s delivery volume these days. As far as most customers are concerned, the 3&Y are essentially the exact same car design with two slightly different options for size and shape. Indeed, when revealed in 2019 the Model Y was basically sold as “Here’s a bigger Model 3 that has 75% of the parts in common.” The differentiation was so minimal that in 2019 after the reveal most pundits thought that the Y would barely generate any additional demand because it was nothing new or special. 3&Y have exactly identical interiors, software, stereo systems and so on. A untrained eye can't even to tell the difference in the exteriors on sight unless the vehicles were parked right next to each other so the height difference is more obvious. Most customers deciding between the two models really are just deciding on whether the Y’s extra cargo capacity and higher roof justify the price premium.
Tesla just built 420k cars in the 3/Y platform in a single quarter, or almost 1.7M annualized. Berlin and Texas have “>250,000” per year nameplate production capacity. If they combine for 600k Ys per year production rate by the end of 2023, the 3/Y will be at a total annualized run rate of 2.3M.
This success is unprecedented, to say the least.
The Toyota Corolla’s best year ever was 2015 with 1.34M units sold, which still today stands as the all-time world record for most units sold of any vehicle model in a single year. The 3/Y family just nearly matched this record in 2022 with a combined 1.30M units made and 1.25M delivered, and without Shanghai shutdowns the Corolla’s record would have been surpassed. In 2023, the Y by itself will come close to the Corolla's 2015 record, and might actually beat it if production ramps go well; if not, in 2024 for sure. Even after adjusting for inflation, the Y is priced more than double the average Corolla price in 2015.
Tesla is achieving this with ~30% gross margins for 3/Y that no one else can come close to. At the latest factories with the latest tech reducing cost, Ys will be earning 40-50% margins for a while until prices come down. Tesla could eventually push drastically more volume of 3s and Ys by reducing prices further as costs improve and as margins are gradually leaned out. This has actually been the plan the entire time.
What is Tesla not doing thus far for accomplishing this with 3/Y:
- Paying for advertising
- Offering many customization options
- 5 paint colors in most markets (7 in Europe)
- 2 interior colors
- 2 wheel styles
- No typical bonus options like heads up displays or heated steering wheels
- Refreshing the cosmetic styling of 3/Y since launch 5 years ago
- Switching the paint colors available
- Offering the standard-range Y and long-range 3 anymore
So, the Model Y is by far the most economically successful vehicle model ever, and it’s not even close. The 3&Y put together as one very closely related family are even more dominant. The numbers don’t lie.
Thus, Tesla has a viable path to selling millions 3/Y cars each year at 20% gross margin or better.
Tesla crushed the high-end luxury market with the S&X. Then they crushed the medium-luxury mid-sized sedan and crossover SUV markets with 3&Y. They appear poised to crush the pickup truck and large SUV market with Cybertruck. Yet Tesla is still not even touching most of the overall vehicle market. For example, they don't sell any economy cars in any segment, nor any boxy crossovers like the RAV-4, coupes, vans, minivans, small hatchbacks, small sedans, or commercial trucks (except for a handful of full-sized semis). There’s an order of magnitude more opportunity out there for Tesla to claim. This is why the demand will probably be there for the goal of 20M units sold per year even without autonomous driving ever working out.
Will Tesla’s success extend to other vehicle shapes and sizes, or to cheaper cars with less luxury? I think all signs point towards a resounding “Yes”. The same reasons why 3/Y is so successful will apply equally to other segments. For example:
- Software, user experience, FSD/autopilot
- Efficient manufacturing methods
- Front and rear gigacastings
- Battery management systems
- Thermal management systems (octovalve, heat pump, super manifold, amazing software and hardware integration)
- Motors
- Structural battery pack
- Safety
- Fancy, beautiful paint coming from Berlin and soon to a gigafactory near you
- Glass roofs
- Dealership-free, haggle-free purchasing + Low inventory and high cash turnover rate
- Supercharger network
- 4680s for long-range variants
- EV market mindshare
- Tesla and Elon Musk accounts on Twitter generating tens of millions of impressions effortlessly and for $0
All of this is happening in the macro environment of humanity’s dawning awareness of the value of EVs and of the severe dangers, both geopolitical and environmental, of continued fossil fuel dependence. EV demand continues its unabated exponential growth and governments policies around the world are tilting the balance ever more in favor of EVs over ICEVs every year. That’s good news for the world’s largest and best producer of EVs.
Vegas Loop is then the dark horse. It is effectively a factory that mass produces first impressions of Tesla vehicles for people who are in an entertainment wonderland intentionally and expertly engineered to put them in the mood for openness to new experiences and for craving novelty and stimulation. This is exactly the psychological state you want potential customers to be in when introducing them to a new product they might be otherwise disinterested in or skeptical of. They need to have their mental guard down and be curious enough to, for example, ask the driver about the car while riding in it. Furthermore, at some point when the Teslas drive people autonomously through the tunnels as robotaxis, the experience is going to blow people’s minds. They’ll post about it on social media, tell everybody about it as a highlight of their trip when they get home, and probably remember it for the rest of their lives. If we look out to 2024 or however long it takes to get robotaxis going in this simplified, secured, closed-loop system, we must bear in mind that millions of people will have this robotaxi ride be their first ever experience in a Tesla. Most people remember losing their EV virginity but this is going to be a whole new level of astonishment and delight for the next wave of converts. All of this this is still deeply underappreciated by the market. The Vegas Loop is small now, but in a few years it will sprawl out across the entire heart of Las Vegas, the entertainment capitol of the Western Hemisphere with 42 million visitors per year and a strong long term tourism growth trend. Miami-Fort Lauderdale is close behind for both tourism and getting their own Loop. Construction and daily operation of existing segments is occurring right now and people keep forgetting about it, even TSLA investors who follow Tesla stuff daily. This project doesn’t generate daily news but it does generate thousands of first rides daily for people who have never even sat in any EV before.
Demand for 3/Y will experience short-term fluctuations, and Tesla may offer temporary discounts for end-of-quarter inventory clearance or to build good will, but the trajectory over the long term is incredibly favorable. Myopic focus on quarterly results and Elon’s politics causes investors, especially institutional folks who control most of the float, to miss the bigger picture.
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Easy, make fewer Model 3 RWDs and more Model Y RWDs, as they would have a higher margin. Of course, they will likely only get the full incentive for ~3 months until the mineral requirements kick in. But it would kick the can down the road a bit.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Again, two words: production planning. You can't jerk the supply chain that hard. And for 3 mths? Oi!
Thats not the LyricHahaha! You know the Lyric is over $200K MSRP and they haven't built a single one yet? (they can't get the blue-cruise thingy to work).
OF COURSE they won't get the subsidy. You have to be able to buy one to get a subsidy!
Starts at 63kHahaha! You know the Lyric is over $200K MSRP and they haven't built a single one yet? (they can't get the blue-cruise thingy to work).
OF COURSE they won't get the subsidy. You have to be able to buy one to get a subsidy!
2023 Cadillac Lyriq Review, Pricing, and Specs
Cadillac's first entrant into the luxury electric-vehicle market is the Lyriq SUV, which features sleek styling, a modern cabin, and up to 312 miles of range.
www.caranddriver.com
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
If Robotaxi in a loop is going to be a first impression, then I hope there would be an optional "rollercoaster route" - I've taken countless friends & strangers on their first EV ride and the most guaranteed way to make them smile is the smooth and powerful acceleration. And for those who I trust enough to actually drive, it's always fun to tell them, "No, actually push the pedal to the metal, that was just halfway!"
523.5 is NHTSA
Both NHTSA and EPA have their own internal classification systems that do not follow the letter of the base regulations (mass, volume, frontal area). Especially in terms of model line vs specific vehicle build.
Per their regulations, EPA classification is at the discretion of the Administrator, that's hard to codify to for an external agency. "vehicle MSRP cut off is determied by whomever is running the EPA" 40 CFR § 600.315-08 - Classes of comparable automobiles.
Treasury could add a clause grouping all versions of a vehicle under the highest limit variant of the group.
Okay I’m back lol.
Question. Is this the bottom? Want to buy more.
Question. Is this the bottom? Want to buy more.
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