Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mach-edriver]

It comes into play if you buy the same stock in a regular account and tax free account, you can't sell for a loss in one and buy under 30 days in the other trying to avoid the wash rule. At least that's my understanding.

That’s quite true. To do so would be to take no risk of missing the upside but still to dodge the tax bill. Good point.

 

[mongo]

I think this FAQ is pretty clear they are only missing guidance on the Battery Mineral requirements.

https://www.irs.gov/pub/taxpros/fs-2022-42.pdf

Q6. What is the amount of the new clean vehicle credit? (added December 29, 2022)
A6. Beginning January 1, 2023, eligible vehicles may qualify for a tax credit of up to $7,500.
Until the day after the Treasury Department and the IRS issue proposed guidance on the critical mineral and battery component requirements of the new clean vehicle credit under § 30D, the credit is calculated as a $2,500 base amount plus, for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours, up to an additional $5,000 beyond the base amount. In general, the minimum credit amount will be $3,751 ($2,500 + 3 * $417), representing the credit amount for a vehicle with the minimum of 7 kilowatt hours of battery capacity.
Once the Treasury Department and the IRS issue the proposed critical mineral and battery component guidance later in 2023, additional requirements will change the amount of the credit (that is, an eligible vehicle may qualify for more or less credit than before). The credit amount will depend on the vehicle meeting the critical minerals requirement ($3,750) and/or the battery components requirement ($3,750). A vehicle meeting neither requirement will not receive a credit, a vehicle meeting only one requirement may be eligible for a $3,750 credit, and a vehicle meeting both requirements may be eligible for the full $7,500 credit. The Treasury Department and the IRS anticipate issuing the proposed guidance in March.

The question on vehicle eligibility is not waiting for guidance. Yes they will update the list if a vehicle changes but they are not changing guidance.

Q2. Is there a list of vehicles that qualify for the new clean vehicle credit? (added December 29, 2022)
A2. Yes. The following link contains a list of eligible clean vehicles, including fuel cell vehicles, qualified manufacturers have indicated to the IRS meet the requirements to claim the new clean vehicle credit beginning January 1, 2023: Clean Vehicle Qualified Manufacturer Requirements. This list will be updated to reflect changes in vehicle eligibility. Verification of the manufacturer's suggested retail price and final assembly is required, see Topic B FAQs 2 and 3.

Heh, heh, only "Verification of the manufacturer's suggested retail price and final assembly is required" not classification...

Seems still open to me:
From notice 2023-1

SECTION 3. GUIDANCE TO BE ISSUED The Treasury Department and the IRS intend to issue the forthcoming proposed regulations to address the amendments made to § 30D by the IRA. The forthcoming proposed regulations will include definitions of the following terms, which are relevant for new clean vehicles placed in service after December 31, 2022:
1. Final Assembly
2. North America
3. Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price
4. Vehicle Classifications for vans, sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and other vehicles
5. Placed in service

In addition, the forthcoming proposed regulations will provide guidance regarding the critical mineral and battery component requirements under § 30D(e).2 The remainder of this section 3 describes a subset of the expected content of the forthcoming proposed regulations.

 

[Thekiwi]

Pricing Reference

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611177163939786752

Whoa! $33k for a model 3!

 

[Discoducky]

I see the price cuts and wonder...

• What is the competition? BYD? If so, what are their margins
• What is the current gov sponsored rebates?

This helps me discern what is going on....

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This price reduction appears to verify that demand is indeed an issue. Or was an issue. I bet this will boost sales significantly.

 

[elasalle]

Pricing Reference

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611177163939786752

US next?

Once Tesla brings down US prices, IRA will approve MY 5 seater for 80K
… but there is still a price to pay… low Tesla prices means everyone else is ducked

 

[Chunky Jr.]

US next?

I wouldn't be surprised at all

 

[juanmedina]

I see the price cuts and wonder...

• What is the competition? BYD? If so, what are their margins
• What is the current gov sponsored rebates?

This helps me discern what is going on....

This is the competition it seems for the Model 3:

 

[EVNow]

A simple lie is an easier sell than a complicated truth. It's just sad that people don't have a bit more discrimination. I feel sorry for people who believe the Tesla growth story in China is hitting a local maximum when there is so much evidence to the contrary. China is nowhere near saturated with Tesla sales.

I predict Tesla will sell record numbers of EV's in China in 2023, many more than in 2022 (which was also a record year). There is no end in sight yet.

You have presented zero evidence that your "complicated" story is the truth. Here are the facts
- Tesla increased incentives in China in Q4
- Tesla didn't sell as many cars in China as they had hoped
- Tesla actually lowered China bound vehicles in Q4, in spite of falling short of delivery expectations
- Tesla lowered overall production in Q4

You can either believe a "complicated" story that doesn't explain all the above facts or use Occam's razor and accept the simple story. Up to you. We'll know the real story soon enough.

BTW, this is so similar to Q1 '19 when the demand for high priced Model 3s hit a soft patch and Tesla was not ready with lower priced trims. Coupled with Europe delivery problems, Tesla had a near death experience. But I chose to believe the complicated story and didn't see the simple truth staring us in the face. Lost a ton of money.

ps : Ofcourse, Tesla cuts China prices. RIP "complicated truth".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611177163939786752

 

[Singuy]

Lowest priced Tesla yet. I believe 249k was the last cut in 2020 but that's after subsidies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1311568908487323650

 

[mongo]

Pricing Reference

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611177163939786752

The Yuan gained lost 8-9% on dollar over the past year, so conversion pricing may be misleading. Especially with >90% local sourcing.​

US Dollar to Chinese Yuan Renminbi Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

 

[Accident]

This is the competition it seems for the Model 3:

The M3 SR and BYD Seal SR cost about the same now. Range is also pretty much identical.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611185119716573185

 

[30seconds]

Great news on the China price cuts. Just like Elon said - margins may drop over the next year or so but volume will grow. The 3 & Y were already running at high margins so they have room. Plus a new manufacturing process for the 3 (and hopefully an external refresh) will also help costs and demand.

 

[Accident]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611183825912233985

 

[StealthP3D]

Lowest priced Tesla yet. I believe 249k was the last cut in 2020 but that's after subsidies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1311568908487323650

According to Google, that price equals $33,460.45 USD. Maybe not the cheapest Tesla yet depending upon how much the Chinese subsidies are and currency rates. Tesla sold the Standard Range Model 3 in 2019/2020 for $35K-$36K without subsidies in the United States although I think it was off-menu. How much are the Chinese subsidies to get it to that price? And didn't that have nickel-based batteries?

This is a good indicator that it only costs Tesla $33K or less to build a Standard Range Model 3 in China. My bet is on a lot less. EV's needed to get cheaper to carry out the mission and it looks like it's finally happening after a bout of record high prices in 2022!

 

[StealthP3D]

This is the competition it seems for the Model 3:

It looks like a Toyosla!

 

[Cosmacelf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611183825912233985

Oh cool, and they even include the price of the steering wheel, not an extra cost option. That's nice.

 

[cusetownusa]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611183825912233985

That’s great. Would love to get a model X (in addition to our model Y) but was concerned that my wife wouldn’t like the yoke. Now if they can just lower the 6 seater by $50k+ I should be good to go. Lol.

I Still can’t believe what they sell for, about the price of an average home around me.

Anyone have an idea what the margins are for a model X?

 

[30seconds]

It looks like a Toyosla!

It’s been almost 7(!!) years since the Model 3 unveiling event, and probably more like 8 since most of the design work was done.

Time for a serious upgrade to the 3

 

[JRP3]

Great news on the China price cuts.

I expect us to get hammered on this "great news" tomorrow.