Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nursebee]

Blood in the streets!

 

[ZachF]

Remind you of anyone?

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"The age of Tesla is over. The time of the Shorts has begun..." Gothmog Chanos

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Chanos' face does look like you'd need a Falcon Heavy in order to fully study it's topography.

 

[carterm2]

It’s there, approved by them about 8am.. You have to select “show all comments”, else they show you a a handful of relevant ones.
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Thanks, Even after telling me I still took 3 minutes to find it... it is slightly lighter in grey than the alternative...

Gave your comment a like, which I do... thanks for the effort!

I also noticed that you can see your comments for all articles by clicking on "My Profile" just under "Show/Hide Conversation"

 

[Tenable]

I honestly don't care what wall street thinks, or shorts think, or the media thinks. Tesla is outselling everyone else in EVS and pushing the entire worlds automakers to catch up. People who think the S needs a 'refresh'...show me the car that looks and feels cooler? Show me the car with the more impressive touchscreen, or the better real-world usable autopilot, or the supercharger network, or over-the-air updates, or range, or acceleration, for the same price.
Such a car does not exist yet, not even on anybodies drawing board, let alone orderable right now.

I'd like a short-term SP rise so I can get out of my stupid short term (i thought) day-trade positions I've been holding,which distract me from my day job, but my roughly 1,000 actual TSLA shares will still be in my hands in 2025. I don't care how long it takes for wall street to learn to do actual maths.

Tesla outselling everyone in EVs doesn't matter if they can't produce and sell them at the right rates and price points. The Model S is a cool car, but who cares? We are all bulls here, many of us are affluent to a greater degree. Is anyone here excited about spending $130k+ on a new Model S today? I'm in the process of buying an inventory P100D that I am STEALING from Tesla. Even at this disgustingly low price point I'm getting it at, I'm hesitating. Why? Because cool or not, its dated. It has no door pockets, visibility is lacking, oh and IT CHARGES SLOWER THAN A CAR 1/3 its price. It can't maintain a sustained power output for as long as a car a fraction of its price, its range is no better, etc. We all know the issues. Posts like yours are not beneficial to us as investors. They simply turn a blind eye to the issues we are facing in favor of feel good vibes. No one here is well served by this. My .02 as always, take it as you will.

 

[Doggydogworld]

- The FPL Manatee Energy Storage Center's battery system is projected to have four times the capacity of the world's largest battery system currently in operation

"World's biggest" claims are such BS. Since March, 2016 the biggest energy storage battery installation is 300 MWh in Japan:
Buzen City, Fukuoka, Japan | Case Studies | NAS

I don't think FPL has announced suppliers, and may not do so as this appears to be utility-owned vs. a PPA type of deal.

 

[jbcarioca]

Was that ever more than a rumour?

I have looked as closely as I could into recent Panasonic and Tesla statements about their relationship. I can not find any explicit statement that confirms any of the most recent reports. Thus here is what I believe (I am careful with wording here, it's my 'belief' not my 'thought'):
1. Panasonic is eager to expand it's relationships and production of automotive products, as evidence with deals signed with both Toyota and Honda;
2. Panasonic is eager to hold on to existing business including with Tesla for GF-1, GF-2 and S/X cells;
3. Panasonic probably wants to transition away from 18650 existing Japanese production in favor of more efficient and modern forms as well as cost reduction;
4. Tesla, regardless of coyness, seriously wants to modernize production and performance of Model S and X, reducing production cost and operating efficiecy while providing continuing technological leadership to those vehicles;
5. Tesla also must move towards China cell sourcing as soon as prudently possible while diversifying sourcing to match Panasonics customer diversification also.
6. With Model Y, Semi, Roadster and Pickup in the offing as well as massive growth for TE none of us have a clue how those will be factored in to these arrangements.

We are all debating what all those things mean in the short term. In the long term there is not much question.

Thus I fully expect a Model S and X new battery back, new motors and improved 'producibility features. Of course they'll look a little bit different. I fully expect multiple sources for solar panels, cells and other components. We'll find out about these things and much more during the coming weeks.

In the meantime I am not buying nor selling nor paying too much attention to the great incredible FUD. By later in the year we'll all be happy.

These things I believe.

 

[EVNow]

People who think the S needs a 'refresh'...show me the car that looks and feels cooler? Show me the car with the more impressive touchscreen, or the better real-world usable autopilot, or the supercharger network, or over-the-air updates, or range, or acceleration, for the same price.
Such a car does not exist yet, not even on anybodies drawing board, let alone orderable right now.

Such a car exists. It is called Model 3.

Its a problem since Tesla as yet can't do too many things at the same time. Otherwise They would have refreshed S/X before 3 started rolling out.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

I don't really get a lot of the doom and gloom here.

Realistically, Tesla is in the best position they've ever possibly been in.

 

[EVNow]

Create ridesharing service with MS 3 X for free!

Are you saying - people who bought a $100k car will drive around others for $20 ?

 

[Tenable]

Are you saying - people who bought a $100k car will drive around others for $20 ?

If I keep losing money at this rate I may consider it.

 

[EVMeister]

I don't really get a lot of the doom and gloom here.

Realistically, Tesla is in the best position they've ever possibly been in.

I agree. Although I sense a lot of frustration that this isn't reflected in the stock price yet.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I think there is unconfirmed news that Panasonic & Tesla freeze spending on Gigafactory; whatever that means.

Panasonic last straw to negotiate on China sourcing? IMO with the Maxcells & cut in S/X production, Tesla is diminishing their role and prepping to cut ties.

Guys, timing wise this sucks...

But if the Maxwell deal goes through, that large investment from Panasonic isn't needed anyway:
- the chemistry change shows an energy density increase from 250wh/kg to 350wh/kg.
Meaning without further improvements, the GF output will increase to 49GWh
- the cells don't need to 'cure' in a storage facility anymore and the footprint area to produce the cells decreases a lot. No need for expansion, just machinery that will be replaced.

Enough improvements alone to feed Fremont m3 production and TE

Am I that wrong?

Maxwell tech improves manufacturing costs / speed / space requirements but does not on it's own improve cells from 250 to 350wh/kg, that was based on various other assumed improvements. So while it would make sense to halt expansion while waiting on new production line designs using the tech, the tech is not by itself a threat to Panasonic as Tesla would be using it with whomever their partner was for cell production. Only if Panasonic refused to integrate the tech would it be a concern.

 

[MP3Mike]

World's biggest? Isn't the planned one Tesla is supposed to do in Cali >1GWh?

"World's biggest" claims are such BS. Since March, 2016 the biggest energy storage battery installation is 300 MWh in Japan:
Buzen City, Fukuoka, Japan | Case Studies | NAS

I don't think FPL has announced suppliers, and may not do so as this appears to be utility-owned vs. a PPA type of deal.

I think the key part of their claim is "solar-powered battery". Not wind powered, not other generation powered, etc. Is the CA battery system Tesla putting in solar powered?

 

[Tenable]

Maxwell tech improves manufacturing costs / speed / space requirements but does not on it's own improve cells from 250 to 350wh/kg, that was based on various other assumed improvements. So while it would make sense to halt expansion while waiting on new production line designs using the tech, the tech is not by itself a threat to Panasonic as Tesla would be using it with whomever their partner was for cell production. Only if Panasonic refused to integrate the tech would it be a concern.

Many of us here were immediately ultra bullish on the solar roof, battery storage, etc. While I am still hopeful these things will be significant, as group our expectations on timelines have been beyond optimistic. The acquisition of MXWL is not yet done. Once/if it is, the expectation it will show up meaningfully in Tesla's products anytime soon simply doesn't gel with anything that we are seeing. If they had a plug and play product that was useful today MXWL would not have been in the position to be acquired so cheaply. Tesla is very capital efficient. I have little doubt this acquisition is an intelligent one. But any expectation that its moving the needle in the near future doesnt seem realistic to me.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla outselling everyone in EVs doesn't matter if they can't produce and sell them at the right rates and price points. The Model S is a cool car, but who cares? We are all bulls here, many of us are affluent to a greater degree. Is anyone here excited about spending $130k+ on a new Model S today? I'm in the process of buying an inventory P100D that I am STEALING from Tesla. Even at this disgustingly low price point I'm getting it at, I'm hesitating. Why? Because cool or not, its dated. It has no door pockets, visibility is lacking, oh and IT CHARGES SLOWER THAN A CAR 1/3 its price. It can't maintain a sustained power output for as long as a car a fraction of its price, its range is no better, etc. We all know the issues. Posts like yours are not beneficial to us as investors. They simply turn a blind eye to the issues we are facing in favor of feel good vibes. No one here is well served by this. My .02 as always, take it as you will.

I actually agree with much of this. I don't view the S/X as integral to Tesla's future success as you seem to, but I agree that, in their current form, you need very particular reasons to choose an S/X over a 3. Once the Y is out, those reasons narrow even further(the main one being storage/passenger capacity).

 

[ZeApelido]

Now I see it!

"Are there any features in a Tesla that can actually surprise? I think people are waiting for those cars to start to fly any day now? "

Model S Falcon Wing Doors confirmed!

 

[EVNow]

This kind of headline FUD is the reason I prefer a single pool of 2M cars for all manufacturers. It would be revenue neutral too.

'Driving America Forward Act' Could Give China $2 Trillion in U.S. Subsidies

BTW, the bill sponsors put the cost at $11B

 

[printf42]

That water leak is concerning, but hopefully a one-off defect or else buyers elsewhere would surely have noticed by now? Unless Tesla messed up waterproofing on a whole batch...I can't read Chinese, so do any of the comments have any information to suggest that more than one car is affected?

Chinese social media smear campaign is much more severe than US. Especially when it comes to auto market. There are big companies running this business openly.
Toyota Highlander and Ford Edge were two most obvious victims I can remember, seems Tesla is on the list now.

Also revenue of these companies who runs smear campaigns are several orders of magnitude larger than a few cars, so always be skeptical when reading news from China.

 

[VValleyEV]

Thanks, Even after telling me I still took 3 minutes to find it... it is slightly lighter in grey than the alternative...

Gave your comment a like, which I do... thanks for the effort!

I also noticed that you can see your comments for all articles by clicking on "My Profile" just under "Show/Hide Conversation"

Thanks!

(Referenced WSJ article: Opinion | Get Ready for a Pileup, Tesla)

I also scanned through the comments, and:

• I responded to all of them that said “but EVs don’t save on emissions” with a short comment of yes they do, please follow this link on how much they save today in the US, and how it is getting better every year with power plant emissions improvements: New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner
• I responded to all of them that said “but Tesla is going out of business”, with a very short summary of Tesla’s grown and profitability compared to ICE, followed by link to the CleanTechnica article about Tesla’s financials: No, Wall Street — Tesla Has No Cash Or Liquidity Problem (And A P.S. For Elon Musk) | CleanTechnica
• For every complaint that included a “too bad, they are fine cars and fun to drive”, I added a “once you have read this that dispels your concerns, go out and buy a Tesla, and you will love it”

I don’t think any of this will make squat difference, but it made me feel better.

Related: I noticed several comments saying that most articles in wsj no longer allow for comments, and that they were discontinuing their subscription for that reason. I wonder WTF why would they do that? Folks love to talk and argue, and it has gotta cost WSJ tiny amounts. Legal concerns?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This kind of headline FUD is the reason I prefer a single pool of 2M cars for all manufacturers. It would be revenue neutral too.

'Driving America Forward Act' Could Give China $2 Trillion in U.S. Subsidies

BTW, the bill sponsors put the cost at $11B

For reference, the US Federal budget is around $4.7 trillion.