Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Anybody know who the vendor is for this:

FPL PRESS RELEASE:
FPL announces plan to build the world's largest solar-powered battery and drive accelerated retirement of fossil fuel generation
- Innovative modernization plan will replace a pair of aging natural gas power generating units with clean and renewable energy, saving FPL customers more than $100 million while eliminating more than 1 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions
- The FPL Manatee Energy Storage Center's battery system is projected to have four times the capacity of the world's largest battery system currently in operation
- Charged by an existing, co-located FPL solar power plant, the planned battery storage center will increase the predictability of solar - extending its benefits even when the sun is not shining

this will be 409MWH.

Any intel on the vendor would be helpful.

Fire Away!

World's biggest? Isn't the planned one Tesla is supposed to do in Cali >1GWh?

 

[jbcarioca]

It’s not panicked. I’m numb to these drops at this point. But S/X numbers are concerning. I’ve seen many inventory cars reduced in price by 20-40%. Saw a P100D with 50 miles on it for $86k. That’s ludicrous. The only plausible explanation would be a refresh is coming so they are clearing out inventory and making buyers feel good about their purchase when the refresh comes since they got a good deal

As long as it had ludicrous I think I'd buy it.

 

[carterm2]

Idea...

Refresh Models S and X.

Offer trade ups to current "downrev" Model S and X owners, offer a good deal.
Create ridesharing service with MS 3 X for free! Free S 3 X! Use S3X to promote Tesla and develop a new UBER-Lyft income channel.

I take tips.

 

[Curt Renz]

ARK Invest will host its quarterly webinar today at 4:15 pm EDT led by CEO/CIO Cathie Wood. This is in addition to its monthly webinar presented on Tuesday. The webinar will conclude with a Q&A session during which we can send questions.

Tesla is the largest holding among the ARK ETFs (exchange traded funds). I own shares of its ARKK fund which is 9% TSLA. Tesla is usually discussed during either the primary webinar presentations or in the Q&A portion.

Link to register: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/9009747195251486466

 

[ggies07]

I’ll start questioning my investment in Tesla if there is no refresh shown.

Why? As you can see, Tesla never thought they would always focus on the Model S/X. We are at the third generation level now, the mass production. Model S/X did it's job, time to become smaller sales vs. 3/Y.

 

[VValleyEV]

I am not sure why you did not notice...

The WSJ does not show your comment... Please let me know how to review it... I have also commented on WSJ articles, and I don't see my own submissions including to this article.... They only show a handful of the comments... They show a dozen comments out of more than 650, (it was plus 200 when I commented.)

I did mention this to you yesterday...?

It’s there, approved by them about 8am.. You have to select “show all comments”, else they show you a a handful of relevant ones.

 

[davecolene0606]

World's biggest? Isn't the planned one Tesla is supposed to do in Cali >1GWh?

Maybe they’re basing on their cost if they don’t use Tesla power packs?

Fire Away!

 

[EVMeister]

tesla Chinese market is over

微博

Eh?

 

[AndyH]

Likely S/X refresh.

• Redesigned battery pack. Parallel cooling lines with full height contact with the cells as in Model 3 pack. Enables V3 charging. 2170 cells also a possibility now that Panasonic has disclosed excess capacity?
  
• New "Raven" permanent magnet motor. Increases range.
• Cooling rework with a "bottle". Increases efficiency.
  
• Interior refresh with Model 3 like dash.
  
• Minor exterior design details.
  
• Ccs for Europe.

Nothing is new for Tesla, it's all adapted Model 3 hardware and can be sourced from the same suppliers. Electrek article with leaked images of interior refresh mention q3 2019 as a release date. Hopefully it will arrive sooner.

Maybe they will do the refresh one feature at a time with motor and battery arriving first.

 

[anon]

tesla Chinese market is over

微博

That water leak is concerning, but hopefully a one-off defect or else buyers elsewhere would surely have noticed by now? Unless Tesla messed up waterproofing on a whole batch...I can't read Chinese, so do any of the comments have any information to suggest that more than one car is affected?

 

[Doggydogworld]

1) S/X revamp using GF cells this quarter

Panasonic said they would move S/X battery production to the US by April. This could mean moving the 18650 machines to Nevada, converting them to 2170s and moving them, keeping the old 18650 machines in Japan and installing new 2170 lines in Nevada or something else. We don't know.

They also talked about reaching 35 GWh/year in Nevada in early 2019. It certainly seems the 35 GWh includes these S/X cells. GF1 capacity with 10 old and 3 new lines was ~27 GWh. Adding 8.5 GWh for S/X would be 35 GWh. Even so, 35 GWh exceeds Tesla's current needs:

8 Models S/X
2 Energy
25 Model 3
-----
35 Total

25 GWh is 385,000 Model 3s at 65 kWh average pack size. That's almost 8000/week vs. <5000/week actual production last quarter and <4000/week deliveries. 385k exceeds Fremont's max stated run rate of 7000/week, which itself is looking more like a Muskgoal than a real goal. Model Y and Semi are 1+ years away.

The Nikkei article merely restates the obvious - there is no reason to expand beyond 35 GWh this year.

 

[schonelucht]

Panasonic said they would move S/X battery production to the US by April.

Was that ever more than a rumour?

 

[ZachF]

Panasonic said they would move S/X battery production to the US by April. This could mean moving the 18650 machines to Nevada, converting them to 2170s and moving them, keeping the old 18650 machines in Japan and installing new 2170 lines in Nevada or something else. We don't know.

They also talked about reaching 35 GWh/year in Nevada in early 2019. It certainly seems the 35 GWh includes these S/X cells. GF1 capacity with 10 old and 3 new lines was ~27 GWh. Adding 8.5 GWh for S/X would be 35 GWh. Even so, 35 GWh exceeds Tesla's current needs:

8 Models S/X
2 Energy
25 Model 3
-----
35 Total

25 GWh is 385,000 Model 3s at 65 kWh average pack size. That's almost 8000/week vs. <5000/week actual production last quarter and <4000/week deliveries. 385k exceeds Fremont's max stated run rate of 7000/week, which itself is looking more like a Muskgoal than a real goal. Model Y and Semi are 1+ years away.

The Nikkei article merely restates the obvious - there is no reason to expand beyond 35 GWh this year.

They could also keep using the 18650 pack for the SR S/X versions, and the rest for Semi + Roadster.

 

[samppa]

Are ARK etfs listed in xetra or anywhere in europe?

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Yeah, Model X and S pricing is brutal right now. The numbers of cars being produced and sold is fairly ugly. Tbh, I don't know where to look for a silver lining. At this point I feel like we need a hail mary of some sort. Be it in the self driving investors day, something surprising and amazing in the refresh, etc. As an investor thats deeply underwater, hoping for some kind of miracle isnt a position I am happy to be in.

My guess is that Tesla's updating the S/X and their production lines. They laid off S/X staff in January, reduced production, and raised prices.

While it's possible that they did so because they somehow knew S/X demand would drop 2-3 months in advance, I think it's more likely they knew S/X demand would drop because they weren't going to build as many cars when they were updating the S/X and their production lines, which also explains the staff layoffs and price increases.

Model 3 production also seems to be humming along according to Bloomberg at an average of 6k+ cars/week, which suggests that Perbix/Grohmann could have enough time on their hands to update the S/X production lines.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Tslynk67]

Bloody hell, had a nice little call that was moving into the money nicely with yesterday's climb and I thought would be a dead-cert with the early ER announcement. Don't see much hope now!

Just play money, of course...

 

[ReflexFunds]

Likely S/X refresh.

• Redesigned battery pack. Parallel cooling lines with full height contact with the cells as in Model 3 pack. Enables V3 charging. 2170 cells also a possibility now that Panasonic has disclosed excess capacity?
  
• New "Raven" permanent magnet motor. Increases range.
• Cooling rework with a "bottle".
  
• Interior refresh with Model 3 like dash.
  
• Minor exterior design details.
  
• Ccs for Europe.

Nothing is new for Tesla, it's all adapted Model 3 hardware and can be sourced from the same suppliers. Electrek article with leaked images of interior refresh mention q3 2019 as a release date. Hopefully it will arrive sooner. Maybe they will do the refresh one feature at a time with motor and battery arriving first.

I had dropped the possibility of S/X switch to 2170 cells/pack after Elon's comments on the Q4 call, but I have to agree recent news could re-open the discussion (as painful as it will be to some...). I struggle to understand why Panasonic continued to build new cell lines in Q1 in response to "growing demand" to reach 35gWh when there is no way Tesla can currently use that much capacity with just Model 3 and Energy. If Tesla has significant purchase obligations for unused 2170 cells vs an expired purchase obligation on 18650 cells, they would be highly incentivised to make the switch, even if it required some new capex. @verygreen's comments below also suggest another surprise in product development, I can see this potentially being a significant battery update on top of the Raven motor upgrade. Though it could just as easily be something completely different or related to semi/roadster etc. Some sort of battery change is going to have to happen with the Raven refresh to boost charging rates, but i still think this is most likely to be minor changes still with 18650.

@greentheonly "Hm, another firmware, another (intentional? unintentional?) data leak. I wonder when the product will appear in real life... Will they send in the black model Xes if I actually say out loud the contents? "
"we can loosely call it features, I guess. The one more thing shapes up to be two more things for the Investor event?"
"not related to autopilot."
"Are there any features in a Tesla that can actually surprise? I think people are waiting for those cars to start to fly any day now? "
"Well, I just thought Raven was mostly it, but nope, that was just scratching the top of it."

Another guess from verygreen's language, the new features discovered are code for retracting the roof of a new convertible Model S?

 

[EVNow]

In an attempt to keep a realistic balanced view, who can provide some reasons as to why this report being this early would NOT necessarily be bullish?

They are just getting mature - and will start releasing ER earlier rather than later i.e. the timing makes no difference.

Unlike many other companies, because of the delivery report, we get a good sense of where Tesla is. They have also guided for loss.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Was that ever more than a rumour?

I think it was a misunderstanding.

Panasonic is creating/has created a separate US unit, and would transfer the S and X 18650 production to that unit. But that doesn't mean that the actual manufacturing would move.

 

[Tenable]

My guess is that Tesla's updating the S/X and their production lines. They laid off S/X staff in January, reduced production, and raised prices.

While it's possible that they did so because they somehow knew S/X demand would drop 2-3 months in advance, I think it's more likely they knew S/X demand would drop because they weren't going to build as many cars when they were updating the S/X and their production lines, which also explains the staff layoffs and price increases.

Model 3 production also seems to be humming along according to Bloomberg at an average of 6k+ cars/week, which suggests that Perbix/Grohmann could have enough time on their hands to update the S/X production lines.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Perhaps I've just been battered by the last several years of owning TSLA. However, this feels like pure optimism to me. I would be shocked if Tesla does not update the interiors of S & X sometime soon. But Tesla has a history of shocking me. Bloomberg is meaningless to me at this point. Tesla's announced numbers are what matter. The fact that they produced less than 5k cars per week in Q1 is worse than anything I had imagined or modeled for. I can't even invent a bullish scenario for why this occurred. I've taken some large financial beatings in the past with TSLA, but I have never felt badly about my investment thesis. I feel pretty terrible today. Tesla has a lot of explaining to do.

I think we do a disservice to ourselves and each other when we as a group mock and ridicule longtime investors that express these sentiments. Not everyone here loved Hog, but he was a long time TSLA bull. I was sad and uncomfortable in hearing he sold his position out entirely. For the first time I've been debating taking my (six figure) loss in TSLA and tapping out.