Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[generalenthu]

This was from Elon musk's Twitter likes. Guess we have the Steve Jobs' Tim Cook for Tesla.

Or Tesla's Gwynne Shotwell.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612131196649238529

 

[Captkerosene]

He said "Tesla NEEDs to make a move " because inventory is growing. Sounds like he is worried management is sleeping at the wheel

I'm in the reduce production camp. Afraid that it will take too big a drop in prices to spur demand as much as we need to keep 50% growth. Keep the good margins by restricting supply. Elon may prefer to keep pumping out cars as fast as possible but the board may be of another opinion. There will come a day when we can't make more of our current models profitably. Profits, not sales, are the measure of a good business. When the economy picks back up we ramp production up again.

At the same time, keep the pedal down on developing new business and increasing our capacity ... even if we aren't using it all.

 

[MC3OZ]

He was right about China demand

For a while....

 

[jerry33]

If only that bar went to 50 instead of 44. What a difference that would make!
/s

I doubt it would make much difference because SP is about options and margin, not about company value or execution.

 

[hacer]

So ours was not counted. Phantom braking while on autopilot caused a rear end to our car, but the airbag was not deployed.

Is a similar metric used for comparing to other cars, by only counting airbag or other active restraint being deployed?

That explains phantom braking! It's a feature designed to increase the accident rate of other vehicles (those that hit the Tesla where auto-pilot brake-checks them) while not being counted against autopilot. The car that struck you likely had seatbelt pre-tensioners activated but nothing in your car activated because you experienced forward acceleration, where the only restraint is the seat and headrest which are not active. /s

 

[Todd Burch]

So handles better, more range , quite, cheaper.....

I don’t understand the part of people not caring about vehicles finding this compelling? Rather it would seem the M3 would be a choice for people not caring? Or is there something else I didn’t get ?

As I understand it, some of the negatives are:
1. Less power/acceleration
2. Software not as good
3. Autonomous features are not good
4. Charging network nowhere near as good
5. Doesn't charge as fast.

There are probably others.

 

[mongo]

old megapacks were 1/4 the capacity of current megapacks.

3/4 the capacity or 1/4 smaller than current version
3MWh vs 3.9 MWh
New also have optional 2hr inverter.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611864642091118593

 

[Ohmster]

Importantly we’d also need a tear down. It’s hard to do a head-to-head comparison without an idea of how much it costs to build. To a great extent a car can be made better by throwing more money at it, but that doesn’t mean it’s economically competitive (looking at you, Lucid).

Need to get one to Sandy.

 

[Mark Alset]

He said "Tesla NEEDs to make a move " because inventory is growing. Sounds like he is worried management is sleeping at the wheel

Yes they do. As I mentioned earlier, best option is to offer $7500 credit on the 5 seat AWD Y to anyone who would otherwise qualify for the tax credit, and offer this on a month by month basis or until IRS reclassifies 5 seat Y as a SUV.

This protects Teslas margins better than dropping to $55k, and makes buyers happy as they can then get whatever options they want wo fear of going over the $55k cap.

And someone (Oger) suggested this was a bad idea because the people might get $15k off the cars if the IRS retroactively gives these buyers the $7500 IRS credit on top of the $7500 credit Tesla offers to incentivize sales. It’s not a bad idea, and who cares if the buyers get $15k off in the end. Even better then. Won’t affect Tesla, and is positive for the buyer.

And by Tesla giving $7500 credit, they can keep the higher base price, in the event the IRS does reclassify the 5 seat awd.

This is the best option as Tesla needs to do nothing other than offer a credit to make people happy. And reducing by $7500 is approx what the base price was anyway one year ago.

 

[navguy12]

Are people really going to finance 85k+ SUVs with 6%+ financing rates? I felt my 3.2% finance rate on my Model Y was already abusive when I signed in June 2020, I wonder how many buyers working 2 jobs to make ends meet with their retirement investment portfolios down -30% will show up at the Tesla showroom once Tesla cuts the prices down 10%. Like Elon said, it’s Economics 101 however do you go with sequential 3% cuts every 3 months or readjust faster? The problem is with all the buyers from the previous month who will be pissed and call Tesla to get a refund.

I hope nobody gets a refund (pissed buyers from the previous month).

When did anyone expect they could drop back into their local GM/Ford/Chrysler a month later and somehow expect a refund because some new sale kicked in?

Or when that 386/20 computer they bought back in 1990 for $2,600 1990 dollars was worthless 24 months later?

 

[y_naught]

Should be everyone. The 3rd row folds flat and you don't lose much space to it folded flat vs the 5 seat. Now if they did the 3rd row treatment to the MYP it would be a resounding win. Fyi, I originally was buying a LR specifically for the 3rd row, but last minute switched to the MYP cuz power. If a 7 seat MYP would have been possible, that would be the one to get.

Acceleration boost is your friend, because who needs to (can) go 155 mph anyway?

 

[Accident]

The problem is with all the buyers from the previous month who will be pissed and call Tesla to get a refund.

Tesla could set a price protection policy in advance. That would give peace of mind to current potential buyers, and avoid confusion with who would be entitled to a refund.

Apple has a 14 day price protection policy for all their products, so it’s clear to consumers if they have a chance of getting a refund.

There are also many ways for Tesla to reduce the numbers of cars delivered during that period, like focusing on deliveries outside of Texas and California.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Make it 7 days max.

 

[scaesare]

That's an interesting article. I was unaware that solid state batteries were already in any consumer products. but there's a couple to choose from.

View attachment 893682

Zendure lets you go up to 64kWh and has "semi-solid" state batteries. I'll have to look that up and see if it means anything or is just marketing gobbledegook.
View attachment 893683

I wondered if that was one of the so-called "gel electrolyte" cells designs.

In looking around I found a couple interesting things:

1) They seem to be in Kickstarter mode currently, just starting deliveries

2) Cleanerwatt did a video on them and talked to the CEO, He talks about the semi-solid electrolyte being a mixture of solids and liquids as well as reducing the amount of lquid by about 50%. They also have membrane that "contains" it within the cell. Haven't finished it yet...

On edit: He says a "high end EV manufacturer" located in China, Germany, and the US has been using it. Hmmm...

 

[MC3OZ]

As I understand it, some of the negatives are:
1. Less power/acceleration
2. Software not as good
3. Autonomous features are not good
4. Charging network nowhere near as good
5. Doesn't charge as fast.

There are probably others.

We also need to consider margins...

We can see less of the iceberg for BYD, because they still make some ICE and hybrids, but it is very likely that their BEV margins are considerably lower than Tesla's.

So Gross margin = price * margin * volume.

BYD is considerably lower on price and margin, a lot of ground for volume to make up.

Others that don't have volume or margin, might be in worse shape.

In some ways this reminds me of the Bolt / Model 3, very few remember that the Bolt was first.

What matters most is the margins of the Tesla Gen3 cars compared to the BYD cars in the same price bracket, and the volume of Gen3 cars that Tesla will be making.

The price cuts in China are probably before Model 3 Highland, and Highland will probably give Tesla a bit more room to move on margins.

All the better car needs to do is get close enough on price...

 

[thesmokingman]

Acceleration boost is your friend, because who needs to (can) go 155 mph anyway?

No one asked you.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Yes they do. As I mentioned earlier, best option is to offer $7500 credit on the 5 seat AWD Y to anyone who would otherwise qualify for the tax credit, and offer this on a month by month basis or until IRS reclassifies 5 seat Y as a SUV.

This protects Teslas margins better than dropping to $55k, and makes buyers happy as they can then get whatever options they want wo fear of going over the $55k cap.

And someone (Oger) suggested this was a bad idea because the people might get $15k off the cars if the IRS retroactively gives these buyers the $7500 IRS credit on top of the $7500 credit Tesla offers to incentivize sales. It’s not a bad idea, and who cares if the buyers get $15k off in the end. Even better then. Won’t affect Tesla, and is positive for the buyer.

And by Tesla giving $7500 credit, they can keep the higher base price, in the event the IRS does reclassify the 5 seat awd.

This is the best option as Tesla needs to do nothing other than offer a credit to make people happy. And reducing by $7500 is approx what the base price was anyway one year ago.

I think Tesla should drop the price of LR Y to 55K. Offer only 3 colors; Red, Blue & Black at no additional cost.

Yes, this will be a huge hit on margin but, the US government chose not to play fair with the IRA so Tesla should not play fair right back. The government isn't remotely prepared to pay out what they will need to pay out if Tesla does this. Tesla will break the IRA and possibly force an even playing field for all.

 

[MC3OZ]

I wondered if that was one of the so-called "gel electrolyte" cells designs.

In looking around I found a couple interesting things:

1) They seem to be in Kickstarter mode currently, just starting deliveries

2) Cleanerwatt did a video on them and talked to the CEO, He talks about the semi-solid electrolyte being a mixture of solids and liquids as well as reducing the amount of lquid by about 50%. They also have membrane that "contains" it within the cell. Haven't finished it yet...

On edit: He says a "high end EV manufacturer" located in China, Germany, and the US has been using it. Hmmm...

There is always something they don't mention, and often that thing is price..

There is always hope for lower prices at scale, the proof happens if/when they get to scale...

 

[UncaNed]

As I understand it, some of the negatives are:
1. Less power/acceleration
2. Software not as good
3. Autonomous features are not good
4. Charging network nowhere near as good
5. Doesn't charge as fast.

There are probably others.

Perhaps... safety??