Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

The only other though I had is that Tesla may want a longer lead time to test that they can make a single casting work reliably at speed. From the Berlin/Austin ramps we saw a lot of waste over the first few months even though Tesla was already familiar with the casting process at Shanghai and Fremont.

Doing this would shorten the ramp time of the gen 3 vehicle once it is announced, and Zach said they are now planning for scale wrt their capex spend rather than doing partial purchases.

It wouldn't be difficult to find room at Shanghai if the current position is just for testing purposes.

I doubt there could be any real progress on a gen 3 factory without us getting wind of it, there are too many eyeballs on Tesla for that to happen.

I agree to lower our expectations regarding this. Best case scenario, the machine is for Tesla and they will test sooner than we thought. Given how things are going lately, I never expect best case scenarios, expecially for TSLA.

 

[jerry33]

How'd one calculate the customer acquisition cost?

If they are making a profit on the Vegas Loop, then acquisition cost is a profit centre.

 

[hobbes]

Someone pointed out in Youtube as Highlander - There can be only one

More detail:

"There can be only one" is the belief and motto among the immortals in the original Highlander film, its sequels and spin-offs. It implies that all immortals must fight and kill one another until only one remains standing; this "one" shall receive The Prize.

View attachment 894129

Haha @Nocturnal had this idea in November

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Wonder if MMD can keep stock price below Max Pain (180) at the open today.

teslamotorsclub.com

EDIT: It was Nocturnal, not Chenkers, thanks for pointing out!

 

[Chenkers]

Haha @Chenkers had this idea in November

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Wonder if MMD can keep stock price below Max Pain (180) at the open today.

teslamotorsclub.com

To be fair it was @Nocturnal that had the "there can only be one" quote.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Not sure if I’m just regurgitating

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612660248145465349

I've got beachfront real estate in Antarctica to sell if you if you believe this nonsense.

Yeah, I'm sure its just a coincidence that costs reduced a sudden 10% at the same time demand plummeted. Sure.

In the Tao Lin interview she finishes it with a confusing bit of denials. Which made me scratch my head a lot.

She apparently denies rumors about

• Tesla making mobile phones
• “Tesla Model 2”
• Tesla is in the second factory in China
• Zhu Xiaotong was promoted to Tesla’s second in command.

The first is obvious, the second 2 are a little concerning in light of the conversation about the Gigapress. The last one isn’t a rumor, Zhu Xiaotong aka Tom Zho is in fact now the second in command at Tesla. Or at least the leader of Tesla auto. Maybe that’s what she meant.

Lol. Right. We've already learned Tesla China cannot be trusted with their misleading statements.

Basically we can take nothing from all this information.

All we know is Tesla China sales have gone down while other OEMs like BYD had no problem selling in December, and Tesla has had to cut prices deeply enough to where margins will be razor thin for 50% of their cars.

It's not surprising the market values Tesla as the weak growing company its proving to be.

 

[Mengy]

Someone pointed out in Youtube as Highlander - There can be only one

More detail:

"There can be only one" is the belief and motto among the immortals in the original Highlander film, its sequels and spin-offs. It implies that all immortals must fight and kill one another until only one remains standing; this "one" shall receive The Prize.

View attachment 894129

That's an interesting idea, it would line up with the Highland M3 timeline well too.

 

[SmokyPeat]

JPow speaking at 9AM. Hope he's not looking to spoil our fun again.

 

[Stormy24]

JPow speaking at 9AM. Hope he's not looking to spoil our fun again.

Too late and his not opened his mouth yet.

 

[Unpilot]

I've got beachfront real estate in Antarctica to sell if you if you believe this nonsense.

Yeah, I'm sure its just a coincidence that costs reduced a sudden 10% at the same time demand plummeted. Sure.



Lol. Right. We've already learned Tesla China cannot be trusted with their misleading statements.

Basically we can take nothing from all this information.

All we know is Tesla China sales have gone down while other OEMs like BYD had no problem selling in December, and Tesla has had to cut prices deeply enough to where margins will be razor thin for 50% of their cars.

It's not surprising the market values Tesla as the weak growing company its proving to be.

Welcome aboard ...thank you for your valuable contribution.

 

[Mengy]

JPow speaking at 9AM. Hope he's not looking to spoil our fun again.

Pre-market is already crashing, either they expect Jpow to sour the milk or some inside info leaked into Wall Street.

 

[unk45]

This is a fake image, no one in Asia stays within the line markers...

Have you been in Singapore?

 

[unk45]

No.

Tesla seems like the most likely buyer.

But aside from that it’s anyone’s guess who is receiving it.

Several Chinese OEMs have ordered those too. As usual, the names are often omitted, not least because IDRA/L.K. supply practically every major OEM with presses.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Pre-market is already crashing, either they expect Jpow to sour the milk or some inside info leaked into Wall Street.

Yeah, I think that's the expectation any time he speaks these days. Maybe he'll surprise us this time.

 

[Max Plaid]

For anyone with a Burnt Hair order, be sure to click the link in the most recent email and fill out the form or your order will be delayed.


Back on topic, I am looking forward to the SP reaching escape velocity and crossing back into the norminal space beyond the Chicken G Event Horizon. After falling into that singularity it seemed we were destined to swirl around inside forever.

Despite what folks say about light and sound being unable to escape, I am still hearing that "tink, tink, tink" sound

Weird, why are they requesting that when it was already given with the initial order...?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Several Chinese OEMs have ordered those too. As usual, the names are often omitted, not least because IDRA/L.K. supply practically every major OEM with presses.

Tesla worked with IDRA to develop the 9000T press. I doubt that IDRA would have negotiated freedom to operate required for the second instance going to another company.

 

[willow_hiller]

Weird, why are they requesting that when it was already given with the initial order...?

My guess is that enough time has passed since the preorder that they want to make sure addresses haven't changed. The Boring Company confirmed on Twitter it was legit, and if you didn't fill it out they'd ship to the original address:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612623745323270146

 

[unk45]

Tesla worked with IDRA to develop the 9000T press. I doubt that IDRA would have negotiated freedom to operate required for the second instance going to another company.

Yes, they would. IDRA/L.K. supply globally. OTOH, implementing one fo these required essentially a new factory and serious expertise in metallurgy and several other subjects. Therefore those really gigantic presses are going to OEM's with both financial and technical skills plus need for new vehicles and new factories.

The resources of the OEM is the issue, not protectionism.
Anyway, the entire process is at minimum three years from order to installation and use.

 

[Max Plaid]

Report from Germany:

If you order a Model 3 now it says expect delivery Jan-Mar. But if you look at the immediately available cars (58 of them) they are offered with a price adjustment of EUR 3,000 to EUR 5,000.

Inventory for Y, S and X are zero, so no price adjustments, delivery also Jan-Mar except for some colors (e.g. the new cherry red) and the standard range MY (Feb-Mar).

My take on this:

Perhaps price for M3 need to be reduced. Make the prices part of the order process.

Supply matches demand for all cars - no buildup of inventory to be seen here.

There's on MY and one M3 in inventory for Belgium, €3k reduction on the M3 - TBH, when you look at the price of the Y versus the 3, the 3 doesn't look like great value - bear in mind that the base M2 is €53k here, €3k more than the base MY, yeah, that's a big WTF for me!​

​

For ordering, all M3 variants are available Q1, MY, the standard range has Q1 availability - I guess it's because they're from GF3. MYLR/P in black or white are available Q1 - perhaps these are GF3 too? Blue is end Q1, beginning Q2, Quicksilver Q2 and Midnight Cherry Q3​

​

Tesla don't need to reduce prices, they need to make some limited-edition colours...​

 

[Mengy]

Yeah, I think that's the expectation any time he speaks these days. Maybe he'll surprise us this time.

My working theory is Jpow purposefully creates negative sentiment every time he speaks, as he really wants to decimate the market and economy to the point where the Fed needs to make a sudden emergency U-turn in order to "save" it all.

If you notice, whenever he says something and the market reacts positively, he immediately says something sharply negative to axe it before it takes hold. I think its an accident whenever he says something and the market thinks its a positive.

He says he'd like a soft landing but in my opinion his actions speak otherwise.

Either way, we are along for the ride for now, and we'll see in an hour how he feels this morning.

 

[brantse]

Report from Germany:

If you order a Model 3 now it says expect delivery Jan-Mar. But if you look at the immediately available cars (58 of them) they are offered with a price adjustment of EUR 3,000 to EUR 5,000.

Inventory for Y, S and X are zero, so no price adjustments, delivery also Jan-Mar except for some colors (e.g. the new cherry red) and the standard range MY (Feb-Mar).

My take on this:

Perhaps price for M3 need to be reduced. Make the prices part of the order process.

Supply matches demand for all cars - no buildup of inventory to be seen here.

This sounds to me like there is probably a somewhat significant change that will be made to the Model 3 lineup. Every time that I can recall discounts for inventory vehicles, that didn't align with the end of quarter, resulted in a model upgrade/revision.