Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

I have a hunch the IRA was written to exclude Tesla mainly because the government didn't want to shell out all that money for rebates on Tesla's huge sales volume compared to other EV manufacturers.

NOW, they will have to pay those rebates anyway!

I don't know if that "breaks" the IRA, but I'm betting the people who wrote the IRA bill are now slapping their heads wondering how they can amend it to once again exclude Tesla....

Do you (or any of you) think battery sourcing is the opportunity they would go after? Is there an angle they can apply that won't also hit the Legacy auto makers?

Off topic but, does anyone else see the M3 Standard Range as the most overlooked and best deal in EVs? Adjusted for inflation, the price is now well below the original 35K target (with IRA), you get a million mile battery, and the functional range is really just as good as the long range because you can regularly use 90% of the capacity instead of 60%. The world seems to be missing this.

PS. If I was feeling flush, I'd put in an order today.

 

[Knightshade]

Incidentally, this is kinda fun/cool/interesting.

The Model Y tax credit eligibility showed up on Slickdeals this morning (I actually saw that first and knew when I got here the place would be hoppin' lol).

For those unaware, it's a community site that aggregates sales and deals, usually for home/clothing/electronics items. I can't recall ever seeing a car deal there before... and certainly none of other EV's qualifying for the credit have been posted there.

FWIW I've seen PLENTY of Tesla threads on there.

And usually exhaust myself dealing with the same half a dozen FUDDERs correcting their misinformation they post over and over in every one of those threads.

You can see em at work in that one too- how maintenance isn't really a savings, FSD kills everyone, reliability is terrible, etc...

That's apart from the folks spreading misinfo on how the tax credit works.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This price drop has little or nothing to do directly with the tax credits. It’s based on Tesla’s internal projections for price elasticity demand.
The evidence? The percentage of the cuts for the S, X and YP, none of which qualify for the credits, are on average about the same as those for the Y.
This is about the macro picture of the economy.

This thought occurred to me also.

1. They only had to drop the price of the Y to 55K but they went lower.
2. They didn't need to drop the S & X, as you point out.
3. They may know that the Govmint still has some tricks up their sleeve and these price drops are partly to stay competitive even if they end up excluded from the IRA.

 

[Xepa777]

Lol the Model Y is so cheap it’s on the coupon website slickdeals 2023 Tesla Model Y + $7,500 Federal Tax Credit $52,990 (For Qualifying Buyers)

And wow what a popular thread. I’m doing my part sharing my experiences there!

 

[Artful Dodger]

First, ramping volume...

Second, FSD margins....

Third, commodity prices...

Indeed. and if I may add this:

Forth, Tesla wasn't selling all the cars at peak MSRP, because there were still backorders even into Q4 (people ordered at lower prices). So the drop in margins will be less than indicated in this price chart:

Cheers!

 

[thesmokingman]

BREAKING:
GM, Toyota, BMW and VW just ordered their dealers to install new parking facilities to maintain their 'sales numbers'

View attachment 895186

Lmao at your single down voter!

 

[cab]

So suddenly, my big question this morning is do I order a Model Y today? If the answer is yes, I have to decide which of these (under $55K) options:

1. Blue on white interior
2. Red on black interior

I will abide by the results of this poll (kidding, I don't care what you guys think...unless one of you happens to be my wife reading this).

 

[InTheMiddle]

After a rather refreshingly 'quiet' week and with price adjustments in place to ensure delivery unit volume increasing over maintaining margin %, I'd like to convey my deep appreciation and gratitude to Mr. Musk for the former and to both Mr. Musk and all of Tesla for the latter. To demonstrate, I've been doing a bit of buying this morning.

 

[Mike Smith]

Dan Ives says the recent price cuts will increase demand by 12-14% globally for Tesla. He doesn't seem to know what he's doing.

 

[Singuy]

Soooo with P being 54k, is the LR AWD M3 no longer a sku or what? Where will that fit in?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Dan Ives says the recent price cuts will increase demand by 12-14% globally for Tesla. He doesn't seem to know what he's doing.

I think they left out a zero at the end.

 

[Drax7]

Dan Ives says the recent price cuts will increase demand by 12-14% globally for Tesla. He doesn't seem to know what he's doing.

At least 50%, that’s how much production is likely to increase this year .

 

[thesmokingman]

Soooo with P being 54k, is the LR AWD M3 no longer a sku or what? Where will that fit in?

It looks like it's not on the menu atm.

 

[LodiEVFan]

So suddenly, my big question this morning is do I order a Model Y today? If the answer is yes, I have to decide which of these (under $55K) options:

1. Blue on white interior
2. Red on black interior

I will abide by the results of this poll (kidding, I don't care what you guys think...unless one of you happens to be my wife reading this).

I will probably be in the minority, but I choose the blue with white interior.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Why would a company lower prices when it has a ton of market share (BEV market share, not overall, in most places) *AND* has feature/value dominance? Fear? Uncertainty? Doubt? (insert your bias here with many handwringing posts)

Tesla is following its stated mission and the equation is simple.

As more factories ramp + pre-pandemic market prices return + COGS goes down + Tesla relentlessly innovates = margins go up.

Tesla is again, drastically increasing output as two massive factories ramp, thus better economies of scale, thus higher margins. The mission is not for higher margins so they lower prices to manage the backlog.

Higher production output lowers the backlog faster, thus lowering prices to an appropriate backlog to compensate for the higher production output.

The mission dictates accelerating the transition, well folks, this is what it looks like.

It reads like you are describing a demand problem to me. When other OEMs put money on the hood to move cars its a demand problem. Yet when Tesla does it its not?

Tesla is about have a whole lot of product hitting the streets, and it means nothing unless there are orders for them.

 

[Singuy]

It looks like it's not on the menu atm.

But even if they bring it back, why would Tesla want to price it at like 49k or something when it uses the same amount of batteries and motors as the P? I can't imagine the P is getting much of an upgrade in terms of cost but just a higher warranty reserve?

 

[cab]

Soooo with P being 54k, is the LR AWD M3 no longer a sku or what? Where will that fit in?

We are potentially seeing a wait for the Highlander refresh...however, if you look at the inventory cars (dwindling by the minute as best I can tell), there are some long range model 3s....looks like the base price is $49,900 for those. $42,400 for a LR model 3 after rebate is a pretty sweet deal. Heck, I've been considering a Bolt EUV as a decent super cheap electric car after rebate, but the standard range 3 at $36,500 after rebate is pretty darn compelling!

 

[thesmokingman]

But even if they bring it back, why would Tesla want to price it at like 49k or something when it uses the same amount of batteries and motors as the P? I can't imagine the P is getting much of an upgrade in terms of cost but just a higher warranty reserve?

Are you missing the point to the ramp?

 

[Singuy]

It reads like you are describing a demand problem to me. When other OEMs put money on the hood to move cars its a demand problem. Yet when Tesla does it its not?

Tesla is about have a whole lot of product hitting the streets, and it means nothing unless there are orders for them.

Yes, there is a demand problem with a Y cost 68k. It's very difficult to push out millions of units at that price point. Affordability is a bell shape curve. This is why analysts are hoping that Tesla announce a 25k car because you get 5x the potential customers. HOWEVER for whatever reason these same analysts are punishing Tesla for lowering prices to capture more potential customers. Did they assume the 25k car is just a single casted box with some cheap wheels and get Tesla into the 35% margin area?

 

[Singuy]

We are potentially seeing a wait for the Highlander refresh...however, if you look at the inventory cars (dwindling by the minute as best I can tell), there are some long range model 3s....looks like the base price is $49,900 for those. $42,400 for a LR model 3 after rebate is a pretty sweet deal. Heck, I've been considering a Bolt EUV as a decent super cheap electric car after rebate, but the standard range 3 at $36,500 after rebate is pretty darn compelling!

Yeah I have seen LR Model 3 pop up even last year. It seems that Tesla is just not taking orders but are still making them?