Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Are you missing the point to the ramp?

I'm just saying they can sell M3P all day at current prices where LR AWD is not really needed. Tesla get higher margins this way.

 

[scaesare]

FWIW I've seen PLENTY of Tesla threads on there.

And usually exhaust myself dealing with the same half a dozen FUDDERs correcting their misinformation they post over and over in every one of those threads.

You can see em at work in that one too- how maintenance isn't really a savings, FSD kills everyone, reliability is terrible, etc...

That's apart from the folks spreading misinfo on how the tax credit works.

Huh. I just did a search on Tesla and the only things on cars in the last year are associated with the current tax credit. Lots of accessory stuff.... or suprcharging deals... but not vehicles.

But I'll not clutter this thread up any further talk of another site... was just trying to point out the awareness that might affect investing outlook...

 

[X Fan]

What a mess they made of this bill. The amount of overhead that will be required to track every manufacturer and decide "ok car produced on X date qualifies, but X plus 2 days doesn't, but X date + 60 days does qualify because of a material switch" will be massive.

So true but remember Governments love Bureaucracy. They get to add more employees and manage a bigger workforce.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla’s prices might be at or below your production costs, and for a superior car. Now what do you do?

Petition the Government for relief? Oh, wait...

Cheers!

 

[Ogre]

Unfortunately, as someone pointed out earlier, the only strategy remaining to the not-competition is to tear down Tesla via their advertising-paid co-conspirators.

Also, lobbying aggressively to reclassify their vehicles to eliminate the role the incentive plays in Tesla’s “new” affordability.

 

[elasalle]

I need to have mirrors folded for my MX to park in garage, so after doing it a couple of times - Tesla automatically folds my mirrors as soon as I enter the driveway
attention to detail, so cool, impressed - not sure I chose any settings for this, just seems to have happened ...

not sure if there are other features like this that folks have run into ...

 

[Hock1]

Why would a company lower prices when it has a ton of market share (BEV market share, not overall, in most places) *AND* has feature/value dominance? Fear? Uncertainty? Doubt? (insert your bias here with many handwringing posts)

Tesla is following its stated mission and the equation is simple.

As more factories ramp + pre-pandemic market prices return + COGS goes down + Tesla relentlessly innovates = margins go up.

Tesla is again, drastically increasing output as two massive factories ramp, thus better economies of scale, thus higher margins. The mission is not for higher margins so they lower prices to manage the backlog.

Higher production output lowers the backlog faster, thus lowering prices to an appropriate backlog to compensate for the higher production output.

The mission dictates accelerating the transition, well folks, this is what it looks like.

Very well-stated. I would add (if somebody hasn't already) that the Q4 numbers will confirm the wisdom of lowering prices at this time. Remember Elon saying something to the effect that, the margins (and profits) are almost embarrassing? The size of these price cuts and the Q4 numbers together will reveal how big the "embarrassment" is (hopefully).

 

[y_naught]

TSLA Investor TMC Forum Meetups

The Seattle Investor Summit in November was awesome. Excellent discussions, fun and we learned that at least 11 of us are in fact actual humans.

Now I’m organizing some more events in other cities. Please DM me if you want to participate.

Locations and dates as follows. For those with multiple days listed, we can pick one based on availability.

Nashville Tue 1/17
Houston Thu 1/19 thru Mon 1/23
Austin Tue 1/24
Phoenix Fri 1/27 thru Mon 1/30
SoCal Wed 2/1 thru Sat 2/4
Bay Area Sun 2/5
Portland Tue 2/7 or Wed 2/8

We already have four members for the Phoenix meetup whom I’ve messaged directly, so that one is definitely on. Other cities TBD. We’ll pick venues and exact timing later once I know who’s attending.

Also, in two weeks, Seattle will be having an FSD testing caravan and postgame roundtable discussion. By “two weeks” I mean whenever we finally get V11.

Notes with takeaways from the meetups will be shared with the forum afterward. Hopefully we can improve the forum’s network with some extended face to face interaction and gain some insights from longer conversations. I think this also strengthens the forum overall and helps with what we’re trying to accomplish here in the long run as TSLA investors.

I‘m in for Bay Area on 2/5! Who else?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Petition the Government for relief? Oh, wait...

Cheers!

They don’t call it government motors for no reason.

 

[Knightshade]

Huh. I just did a search on Tesla and the only things on cars in the last year are associated with the current tax credit. Lots of accessory stuff.... or suprcharging deals... but not vehicles.

But I'll not clutter this thread up any further talk of another site... was just trying to point out the awareness that might affect investing outlook...

The threads get moved to deal talk after a while so don't show in the hot deals search.

Here's two (on the car, not just accesories) within the last month for example:

*YMMV* Tesla Model 3 and Model Y: Take delivery between 12/21/2022 and 12/31/2022, and receive $7,500 discount and 10,000 Supercharger credits

Hello, I hope you're well. Tesla is offering certain customers a $7,500 discount and 10,000 Supercharger credits if they take delivery of a Model 3 or Model Y by 12/31/2022. Check your text messag ...

slickdeals.net

https://slickdeals.net/f/16313287-tesla-is-offering-10k-miles-of-free-supercharging-for-all-tesla-models-that-are-taking-delivery-this-month-starting-12-15?v=1&src=SiteSearch

Plenty more going back years though on the cars themselves.

Not that the accessories threads don't get the same FUDDY trolls posting the same nonsense as the car ones mind you.

 

[elasalle]

How hard for Tesla to change the color palette?
With high vol, just having some different colors would up the demand .even more ..

 

[madodel]

Cowardly Citi, Wells Fargo and Guggenheim cutting their price targets and saying sell.

Pathetic, now you do this. Impress the hell out of me and foam out the mouth when it was at 400.

It's all about the churn. In a month or 2 they'll be pumping it going to the moon, after they covered all their shorts first of course.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The continued hard ramping at 50 % plus YOY will yield huge operational leverage. The 4680 will bring more cost reductions.

Indeed. Tesla producing their own 4680 cells provides pricing leverage against the entire battery cell industry. They have to compete, they have no monopoly.

It's as if Ford produced their own fuel (indeed the entire energy supply chain), except it was climate-friendly...

 

[Mike Smith]

At least 50%, that’s how much production is likely to increase this year by.

I think demand will be up over 100% globally based on recent cuts. In the US it's probably over 200% higher. A model Y LR is now slightly below the average price of a new car in the US. It's incredible.

 

[Knightshade]

Soooo with P being 54k, is the LR AWD M3 no longer a sku or what? Where will that fit in?

Good question. This one really shocked me... I expected LR AWD to come back at this price point- and with the $7500 credit would be a fast seller-- and leaving room to cut the P but still be above the credit, to create a gap between em.

The P price is a huge cut though, so I dunno what's up there.... simplification of MFG I guess since they just put the red brakes and 20" wheels on everything with an LR battery?

AWD is still listed just greyed out and still just says available in 2023 which is even weirder.

 

[SO16]

#perspective

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613914044246937603

 

[X Fan]

How hard for Tesla to change the color palette?
With high vol, just having some different colors would up the demand .even more ..

New Berlin gray and red would sell like hotcakes

 

[Captkerosene]

Not only that but I bet the reason they didn't go straight to $54,990 is because when the inevitable backlog develops, they have some room to raise the price to that number in the coming months. It also gives some time to see what may change with the IRA.

A backlog is not inevitable. People are assuming more elasticity of demand than I think exists. Our products have lost a little of their pizzazz (for lack of a better word). Nobody gawks at a Tesla anymore. We're becoming "common." The price cuts we just had may only be enough to sell out at our current production rate.

 

[EVNow]

That makes no freaking sense.

It is a simple idea. Microeconomics 101.

If you have a product X that is cheap & good, everyone wants it. But, limited supplies are available - so there will be a waiting line for X.

Anyone who doesn't want to wait, can buy the other product Y, even though it is more expensive and not as good. As long as there are enough people wanting to not wait in the line, Y doesn't need to reduce prices.

 

[The Accountant]

I have margin $ increasing 60% on the Model Y LR in the US despite price cut.
Putting it out there to start a dialog on this.
See details HERE