Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

I agree with all of this!

And it needs to stay this way, inflation isn’t conquered until consumer prices come down and remain down. I don’t think people should be hoping for price increases, just like I don’t think people should have been hoping for an $80k limit on the Y and room for even more price increases there.

These things are all connected, there likely isn’t a scenario where prices increase again and the Fed lets off the brake. Darth Powell will Order 66 demand through even higher financing costs before they allow inflation to persist or head higher, that is the tool at their disposal.

To be coldly factual, inflation is never really conquered just as deflation can happen for long periods (e.g. Japan)

The Lost Decade: Lessons From Japan's Real Estate Crisis

Find out what America can learn from Japan's liquidity trap and credit crunch.

www.investopedia.com

Similarly long periods of relative price stability can be interrupted by events (e.g. COVID-19, Russia invading Ukraine, Brexit…).

From our narrow perspective as TSLA investors all of the recent events are ‘bumps in the road’. Just like those the macroeconomic events can cause huge disruption, but…

The core reality is that the Paris Accord;

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi_w6elzcn8AhVnj5UCHeWJAL0QFnoECBQQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Funfccc.int%2Fprocess-and-meetings%2Fthe-paris-agreement%2Fthe-paris-agreement&usg=AOvVaw063d3wfvhpuCyAfaAiEBWG

The EU climate change policy;

Taking the lead on climate change

The EU is committed to spearheading the global fight against climate change 🌍 🌿 – making Europe climate-neutral, in line with the Paris Agreement. Find out how in this multimedia story

www.consilium.europa.eu

China goals;

Infographic: China's explosive EV growth to stay on track

China has made adoption of electric vehicles a cornerstone of decarbonizing its transport sector. Despite headwinds such as removal of EV subsidies by year end and rising battery raw material prices, China’s EV adoption rate is seen undented

www.spglobal.com

And the US IRA that is exhaustively discussed here,…

so short-term-ititis has seemingly infected many of us, mostly driven by securities market makers, short sellers, speculators and sensationalist reporting. All of those make many of us demonize US monetary policy, specifically Jerome Powell.

Certainly there are risks, certainly there are problems, certainly Tesla market shares are declining in many categories, but…

That is all as it is and will be in one way or another. If we are serious investors we will carefully evaluate each such event but consciously refrain from overreacting. That is hard, much easier it is to have wild mood swings. Much easier, but also exaggerates both problems and good news. That is never wise.

Our issues right now make calmness quite difficult: Since Brexit, wars and threatened wars, floods, fires, drought, insurrections in more than one country, strange blue birds, Blue Bird electric busses, an endless list of risks and dangers tending to constrain the widespread movement towards BEV.

We all need to take deep breaths and not become overly excited by any of these events. Five years from now we’ll probably know how well we’ve done with all this, maybe even before that. About then the succession debates will be highly relevant even if noting untoward happens before then.

In the meantime please chill a bit.

 

[unk45]

It’s the Kleenex effect. Tesla is dominating BEV sales to the point where people say Tesla instead of BEV.

My spouse and I made that comment to each other when we saw the Reuters post, then immediately after saw your post. Thanks for the inspiration!

 

[Skryll]

Some engineers working with my wife want Teslas but they said they won’t buy one because of Musk. I don’t know if it was the media narrative that already convinced them he was a egocentric billionaire not worth encouraging or if it was the Twitter activity lately that formed that thought and conclusion however some moderate conservative people might be pushed to a somewhat more neutral car brand like Hyundai Ioniq 5 where you won’t be questioned about the possible political implications of your car purchase.

I met some of these too. You can't help everybody. Safest car, best road trip experience, most advanced features, best price. If none of that matters, they will just have to make do with what else there is. I don't think it will be a factor impacting tesla.

 

[ZeApelido]

Rumor is Tesla included a crate of smoked salmon to make it a slam dunk decision.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614542981570400256

 

[Skryll]

The used car market is imploding...get your popcorn!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614068326807883776

Scoop them up; and sell at profit later when demand outstrips supply at current prices by months and instant gratification used car sales are premium again.

 

[jw934]

Tesla Berlin is looking at purchasing and expanding to additional site nearby.

Tesla wants to build its own plant station for freight transport,
logistics areas and a company daycare center on an adjacent
site, as the existing site is not sufficient for this.

———————-
Tesla in Grünheide: When the development plan for expansion of
the Gigafactory could stand
January 14, 2023, 09:26
Tesla not only wants to expand production in Grünheide, but also
buy land to expand. For this, a development plan is still
necessary first. A draft for a possible schedule is available.
The site of the Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg by U.S.
electric carmaker Tesla (aerial view taken by a drone). The
company is planning to expand the area and extend the factory
on the existing site.

Spoiler: Rest of the article

The site of the Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg by the US
electric car manufacturer Tesla (aerial view with a drone). The
company is planning to expand the area and extend the plant on
the existing site.
U.S. electric carmaker Tesla is planning to expand its site in
Grünheide near Berlin - and the municipality wants to speed up
the development plan to do so.
Mayor Arne Christiani (independent) believes that the
development plan can be drawn up by the first quarter of 2024.
However: "For this, everything would have to work out very well,"
Christiani told the Deutsche Presse-Agentur. Currently, the
municipality is waiting for information from the responsible
planning offices. Then the public interest groups would be
involved, and their comments would have to be evaluated.
Tesla wants to build its own plant station for freight transport,
logistics areas and a company daycare center on an adjacent
site, as the existing site is not sufficient for this. In December,
the Grünheide municipal council voted by a majority in favor of
drawing up a new development plan. The car manufacturer can
now buy an area of over 100 hectares. Further forest will have to
be cleared for this.
Altlandsberg
According to the Ministry of the Environment, the Brandenburg
state government had already held out the prospect of Tesla
acquiring another area during contract negotiations in 2019
subject to the development plan law. Economics Minister Jörg
Steinbach (SPD) expects the expansion to provide a further
boost to economic development at the site. However,
environmentalists warn against an expansion because part of the
site is located in a water protection area. Tesla had always
rejected environmentalists' concerns.

Tesla is planning to expand the plant on the existing site in order
to increase production. The timetable for this is still open. The
expansion will require a new environmental permit from the state
of Brandenburg. "No application under immission control law
has yet been received for the expansion of the site," said
Environment Ministry spokeswoman Frauke Zelt.
Grünheide
Tesla has been producing electric cars in Grünheide in
Brandenburg since March 2022. The current Tesla site covers
about 300 hectares.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk's company is also
building a battery factory there. At least 8500 employees
currently work at Tesla in Grünheide. In the first expansion
phase, there are to be 12,000 employees. IG Metall had
expressed concern about working conditions at Tesla in
Grünheide.
[ /SPOILER]

Source tweet

 

[Max Plaid]

What should I do about TSLA?
When is it time to get back in?

Tsla at an inflection point.

I sold ALL TSLA at $230 (Why unnecessarily bleed) and I am close to coming back home.

In evaluating re-entry, one must ask.

Do you want wheat or chaff?

Chaff is in the hands of the chat boards and financial manipulators, and they can really fall to emotion, day to day tweets and opinion.

Will Musk's eccentric tweets and opinions have an impact. Sure, but to what level, as vehicle demand will recycle and a solid product is only better with a substantial price reduction.

So, Tesla's 35% individual unit profit may now drop to 30% and still exceed any car maker in the World.

If any of you grew up in snow country, where the snow banks are high, you may recall playing King of the Mountain. Well, when Tesla is on top of that snowbank, it is vulnerable to hits from all sides. There will be ups and downs and eventually Tesla will ascend to a different snow bank.

Do you want Window dressing or the main course. What is the main course? Not the side dishes? Do you want to eat it?

Your job as an investor is to separate the facts and the news from the fiction and the noise.

I am watching TSLA closely and it will soon be time to meander back in.

Is your goal to let your emotion follow the chaff, or is it to be a profitable investor.

This video is the most spot-on description of how to look at TSLA that I have seen in a long time.

Charmuth gets it!

Enjoy

That Chamath interview is from 2019, but if you didn't know you wouldn't know, because it's just as relevant and accurate today...

 

[unk45]

Cheap parking spot in prime location by plugging in and not charging ?

In this case the Shopping Center is the top end in Rio, smaller than most, for anybody who knows, Village Mall.
when I go there I do plug in, six ABB wall units no auth required. The location is inconvenient for most and only plug-in vehicles are there. Given my slightly cynical view I check to see which cars are actually charging. On the visit I mentioned one of the BMWs had charging end. Before I left the car departed and was replaced by a Volvo BEV. The Replacement was a Mercedes BEV. Unlike anything I have seen in other countries, here people seem to leave after charging. At this location I have not seen the cheaper Nissan, Cher, Fiat, Peugeot or even the original BMW i3.

Of course, as in much if the world the BEV and plug-in models are proliferating. FWIW, every plug-in owner with whom I have spoken here says they’re anxious for better BEV options; all of them mention Tesla. The gray market Model Y’s appear so times too.

 

[Max Plaid]

New low from MSM

Msn purposely reposting a story from Patch of a POLESTAR crashing into a house. They removed the picture of the polestar, just showing the 2nd picture of the aftermath with the false headline. The original Patch article also had a false headline, but later removed it and just say a "car" even though the link still says "Tesla -crashes-garage-lake-forest-thursday"

MSN

Original patch article

Car Crashes Into Garage In Lake Forest Thursday

The crash was reported just before 2:30 p.m. Thursday in the 24200 block of Okeechobee Lane.

patch.com

Interesting, they removed the Polestar from the story, but when I posted the URL to someone, is still shows, with the "Tesla" headline

 

[unk45]

Interesting, they removed the Polestar from the story, but when I posted the URL to someone, is still shows, with the "Tesla" headline

View attachment 896013

This is the second one today. Does that mean I now can call my Volvo XC40 Recharge a Tesla? If I do will the car suddenly have OTA updates, decent charging station finding and better energy use, and a good app too?

 

[elasalle]

Interesting, they removed the Polestar from the story, but when I posted the URL to someone, is still shows, with the "Tesla" headline

View attachment 896013

Isn’t this sueable?
What ever happened to crack litigation team that would be out for blood?

 

[elasalle]

That Chamath interview is from 2019, but if you didn't know you wouldn't know, because it's just as relevant and accurate today...

But b/w 2019 to present Chamaths reputation has crashed by like 70% - I’m no longer willing to give this guy a listen- he’s just a SPAC hustler
Was enamored once ..in quest for knowledge/ edge

 

[Skryll]

What should I do about TSLA?
When is it time to get back in?

Tsla at an inflection point.

I sold ALL TSLA at $230 (Why unnecessarily bleed) and I am close to coming back home.

Always fun to time the market. So are you waiting for it to blow past 230 ?

Always fun to time the market

 

[jw934]

Interesting, they removed the Polestar from the story, but when I posted the URL to someone, is still shows, with the "Tesla" headline

View attachment 896013

For reference, screen shot of the pre and post, where the post version photo just show the damaged building after the Polestar wreck was towed, but the headline and article still say it was a Tesla that crashed.

 

[Stretch2727]

Based on IRA and subsequent Tesla price cuts… should competition be spending $$ building infrastructure like charging if their cars not selling

Btw any news when US super chargers going to be open for all?

You just have to watch a few of Kyle's (Out of Spec) videos to understand how bad it is out there for the non-Teslas. He is basically telling everyone not to buy a CCS car if you are doing any road trips.

The Tesla superchargers were supposed to be open by the end of last year. I am thinking they may only allow CCS charging with the V4 chargers there were some drawings floating around with integrated CCS. Could be a long time before there is meaningful access.

The best move any OEM in the US could make right now is negotiate with Tesla to move to the NACS standard with immediate access to the superchargers via adaptors for their current cars.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614320653246828545

Thread has some cool content

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614321481496035330

 

[SarahsDad]

A bit OT: I live in Western NC, better known as Lithium Country, home of Piedmont Lithium (PLL). I mentioned PLL on this thread back in 2019 when the stock price was ~7; now it's ~60.

There's rumors here in Western NC that local mining company Piedmont Lithium (PLL) is in talks with Tesla. That would make sense, I actually brought this up here over a year ago.



And there's an article about Tesla on a Piedmont Lithium-sponsored marketing site here Piedmont Lithium Limited (NASDAQ: PLL). Hmmm.

Company website is here Piedmont Lithium Limited (PLL)

Another take on this:

If this is true, I'd expect an announcement on Battery Day.

Full Disclosure: Bought a little bit of PLL, as Jack Rickard would say, "for fun".

Not an advice.

There's another lithium company here, Livent (LTHM), that's been in the local news and is clearly growing. They're getting a lot of state and local support judging from local media reports. I don't own any LTHM but it may be worth a look. Not an advice.

• Livent Expansion - 2022 : Bessemer City, NC

• A Big New Buy Recommendation Sends LTHM Higher
• https://s22.q4cdn.com/453302215/fil...2022/2022.11-Livent-Investor-Presentation.pdf

 

[Singuy]

What are your thoughts on the model 3 LR coming back after q1? They can't bring it back and price it for 50k because then after tax credit, it will be cheaper than the Sr+ when the sr+ tax credit goes away.

So what are some theories to skus and pricing? P3 going up in price? Sr+ going away? Lr no longer a sku?

 

[Max Plaid]

But b/w 2019 to present Chamaths reputation has crashed by like 70% - I’m no longer willing to give this guy a listen- he’s just a SPAC hustler
Was enamored once ..in quest for knowledge/ edge

Sure, but what he says in this interview is correct and very good investment advice for any company: tl;dr, ignore the noise, look at the product and the fundamentals

Plus bonus points for calling Chanos out as a loser!

 

[nativewolf]

You just have to watch a few of Kyle's (Out of Spec) videos to understand how bad it is out there for the non-Teslas. He is basically telling everyone not to buy a CCS car if you are doing any road trips.

The Tesla superchargers were supposed to be open by the end of last year. I am thinking they may only allow CCS charging with the V4 chargers there were some drawings floating around with integrated CCS. Could be a long time before there is meaningful access.

The best move any OEM in the US could make right now is negotiate with Tesla to move to the NACS standard with immediate access to the superchargers via adaptors for their current cars.

It is not bad if you have over 250 miles range. Just did 1200 miles in our Ford lightning with standard range. It was slow but worked, no high speed in Hattiesburg ms and that sucked a bit so we had to detour slightly but up and down 81 and 40 there are plenty of high speed EA chargers at 150 or 350 if your vehicle handles it. Slightly cheaper than Superchargers from what I hear. MS and LA are sparse compared to VA TN AL