Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[zannman]

The problem is that there is very little room to raise the price without it ending up being a large raise. $2,011 on the Model Y ends up being $9,511.

But even a $1k raise would limit options for still qualifying for the tax credit.

The 279 mile "Standard Range" AWD Y that has popped up in inventory for a couple of thousand less would still be "in the money" for the credit. Perhaps that's the longer term plan, making that $13k cut more of a $10k or less cut longer term when you can get some traction with lawmakers on definition of SUV or clear your books and production queue of 5 seat LR AWD Model Y's.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the 5 seat LR AWD Y disappear from the configuration pages soon if Tesla can't get traction on raising the $55k IRA limit for them.

 

[thesmokingman]

And under the “Clueless” category: The Daily Double!​

Wyoming Legislators Draft Resolution Banning Electric Vehicles By 2035​

Take That, California! Wyoming Legislators Draft Resolution Banning Electric Vehicles By 2035

In response to California and other states phasing out the sale of gasoline-powered cars, Wyoming legislators have introduced a resolution that would ban new electric vehicles in the Cowboy State by 2035.

cowboystatedaily.com

Unlike California’s ban on gas-powered cars, the resolution’s co-sponsor, Sen. Brian Boner, R-Douglas, said the Wyoming resolution would be meaningful in making a statement if passed, but it would be entirely symbolic.

Wyoming going back to a time long past...

 

[AndrewZ]

Musk is doing his best to reduce inflation...

^^Dude ninja'd!

I agree with all of this!

And it needs to stay this way, inflation isn’t conquered until consumer prices come down and remain down. I don’t think people should be hoping for price increases, just like I don’t think people should have been hoping for an $80k limit on the Y and room for even more price increases there.

These things are all connected, there likely isn’t a scenario where prices increase again and the Fed lets off the brake. Darth Powell will Order 66 demand through even higher financing costs before they allow inflation to persist or head higher, that is the tool at their disposal.

 

[JusRelax]

This is definitely something to continue watching and with appreciation for nuance: there is not a single Model Y available right now that is <$55k. However, there are 490 Model Y listings at $55k+ with various options.


Side note that I believe this confirms the idea that listed inventory numbers are significantly understated compared to physical vehicles, there is surely a 0% chance these price cuts only resulted in ~1,000 vehicles moving.

Considering the first part of your post quoted, I don't believe the second is accurate at all. If Tesla only sold 1k inventory vehicles due to price cuts, it's literally because there are no other Y listings in inventory below $55k, and would thus be eligibile for the tax rebate. We have no idea how many custom MY orders were put through the system due to no inventory model Y's being eligible for the tax rebate.

 

[thesmokingman]

There are tons of orders coming in. At this point its how soon you get yours in to get a reasonable delivery date before March.

 

[Singuy]

New low from MSM

Msn purposely reposting a story from Patch of a POLESTAR crashing into a house. They removed the picture of the polestar, just showing the 2nd picture of the aftermath with the false headline. The original Patch article also had a false headline, but later removed it and just say a "car" even though the link still says "Tesla -crashes-garage-lake-forest-thursday"

MSN

Original patch article

Car Crashes Into Garage In Lake Forest Thursday

The crash was reported just before 2:30 p.m. Thursday in the 24200 block of Okeechobee Lane.

patch.com

 

[dhanson865]

People were like "Tesla just offered me 33k for a M3P, why are they low balling?"
Someone else was like "Dude go to Carvana, they will give you 50k".

Tesla was never intended to hold the bags

And people were wondering why Tesla cleared out as many demo models and inventory cars as they could in December.

Seems obvious in retrospect if you are going to lower prices you should sell every car you can before you do.

 

[AndrewZ]

Considering the first part of your post quoted, I don't believe the second is accurate at all. If Tesla only sold 1k inventory vehicles due to price cuts, it's literally because there are no other Y listings in inventory below $55k, and would thus be eligibile for the tax rebate. We have no idea how many custom MY orders were put through the system due to no inventory model Y's being eligible for the tax rebate.

2,500 -> 1,500 inventory listings is the overall move across the entire S/3/X/Y new inventory lineup, Model Y specifically went from like 1,300 to 500 or so.

I get what you’re saying though and concur, maybe my logic on that isn’t entirely sound.

Also don’t think they would have made this move if there were only 2,500 vehicles in stock in the US unless it was just the order backlog reducing and trying to front-run that, but who knows. I’m really just trying to get a handle on what’s going on here to make decisions that are as informed as possible.

 

[Singuy]

And people were wondering why Tesla cleared out as many demo models and inventory cars as they could in December.

Seems obvious in retrospect if you are going to lower prices you should sell every car you can before you do.

Well Tesla always clear everything out end of year push so that was not surprising.

 

[lafrisbee]

Too Damn good to not posted it here
(From Twitter)









GrumpyOldBoomer

@StevenRobertDE
·
2h

Replying to
@garyblack00

@MartinViecha
and
@elonmusk
It’s like SpaceX underbidding others to put things in space. They do it because they can afford to, because they have a more efficient way to do it, not how everyone else does it

 

[FSDtester#1]

Wyoming going back to a time long past...

Are you the one in the middle ??

 

[dhanson865]

The problem is that there is very little room to raise the price without it ending up being a large raise. $2,011 on the Model Y ends up being $9,511.

But even a $1k raise would limit the options available for still qualifying for the tax credit.

I'm saying they will be producing way more cars and will drop prices again.

So if they have to raise prices later it will be between the new lower prices that haven't been seen yet and the current prices and they will have room to adjust back up, but the next move is down, not up.

 

[thesmokingman]

Are you the one in the middle ??

Dude, those guys are legends!

 

[dhanson865]

Reminder that Elon was ready to lower prices middle of last year, just waiting for the Fed to settle down.

 

[Gigapress]

According to a driver at the Las Vegas Loop, the reason autonomous operation isn’t happening yet is Nevada law prohibits it right now.

Rider: Have you ever tried Autopilot in here?

Driver: No, it’s disabled. Yeah, Nevada law doesn’t allow for it…So once they actually get everything done then they’ll start running the autonomous cars. They’ve tested the autonomous cars and they were running them through at 80 miles an hour.

It’s just one driver saying this but it’s still an inside source who’s probably informed and also was willing to state it on camera for a major YouTube channel. My understanding is that the drivers have been trained on how to answer the FAQs and it would be weird for a driver to be misinformed about the status of autonomy because their gig will presumably end when the transition to autonomous mode happens. This is the first time I can remember coming across credible confirmation that regulatory holdups and not technical problems are why we don’t have our first Tesla robotaxi service in Vegas. Hopefully it goes without saying why this is a huge win for Tesla if it’s true.

80 mph probably does not indicate a safety limit on FSD in the tunnels but rather the comfortable forward and lateral acceleration limits on this particular short and somewhat curvy section of track. Probably much higher speeds can be achieved on the straightaway down the Strip once that’s built. Years ago there was a video on YouTube of a drive in the Hawthorn test tunnel that peaked at 116 mph.

Kim Java went to CES and made this video about the Loop. Not a lot of new info in here because it’s mostly a basic intro for people who don’t know anything about the Vegas Loop or the product placement value it gives Tesla for free. She says there was a lot of buzz about Tesla at CES due to the Loop but I don’t know if she’s exaggerating. Clip with driver discussing autonomy is at 4:13.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We're gonna have to get a 25K ish car (max budget) for a second teen soon. I've been dreading what to get, best scenario thus far is a BMW i3 sport with some reservations. But gdamn, now I'm stoked can possible squeeze her into a M3 SR if the Model 2 isn't out in a year.

Be aware the Model 3 SR+ w. LFP battery from CATL/China will likely lose the $3,750 IRA subsidy sometime in March due to TBA battery sourcing requirements (thanks, Treasury Dept, that's ~10% of the car's price).

It's likely 1-2 years before Tesla can replace those batteries with qualified batts, if CATL plans to build a suitable N. American factory.

I expect 3SR+ to sell out in a hurry, well before all orders can be deliveried in advance of delayed Treasury rules. I expect a lot of unsatified demand and disappointed customers. Tesla can possible resume building 2170-based SR+ models, but those will involve a price increase (perhaps ~$2k more for a 2170 pack vs. LFP pack).

 

[Ogre]

The talk about Tesla helping with inflation isn’t wrong. Used car prices affect inflation and I suspect Tesla’s huge price drop will impact a lot of used vehicle sale prices. I’m certain people who are EV curious and looking for used cars check Tesla first. A $14k price drop is likely to bring a lot of those shoppers over to the Tesla aisle at Car Max before they even shop the Prius aisle (Except for the never-Teslas). Shoppers who find a Tesla in their budget, they never make it over to the Prius aisle at all.

Prius, Camry, etc etc.

I suspect this will have a significant knock on affect on the used market as a whole. The Model Y is the 3rd or 4th most popular car in the country. Suddenly people who were shopping used are shopping new. People who were shopping used (and heck new!) Hondas because they thought Teslas were too expensive will likely consider a used Tesla. The whole used market is going to get pummeled and

Though the inflation expert on CNBC disagrees with me. I think he probably doesn’t follow the auto industry too closely.

Soaring used car prices are pushing inflation higher, and there's not much the U.S. can do about it

The potential upside for President Biden is that inflation is expected to moderate organically and as the Fed looks to raise interest rates this year.

www.cnbc.com

 

[2daMoon]

Wyoming going back to a time long past...

Weird, Wyoming is outlawing the sale of EVs at the same time the legacy OEMs will stop producing the ICE vehicles they hope to continue selling there.

So, I guess that they will also be purchasing these OEMs as they fail and will move their union workforce to the new ICE factories being built in Wyoming that will be needed to support this ridiculous legislation.

I'm just glad that @thesmokingman managed to post a photo of the congress-critters who wrote this legislation.

 

[Fairchild]

When you establish your profit margin at astronomical levels (TSLA), it gives you plenty of breathing room to cut off the competition's cullions, at will, without blinking.

Tesla is returning $9,570 profit for each car produced, significantly more than Toyota's profit per vehicle of $1,200

Profit loss will easily be made up by cheaper batteries, government incentives and greater volume. People are standing in line again to buy, even a second Tesla for the wife and kids.

Either the bean counters got smart, or they were overruled. I would expect the latter.
It smells Musky. Ignite thrusters!
All factories are Go, at Throttle Up!

Pedal to the medal. I just began a staged return to buying TSLA shares.

OBJECTS IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR ARE ALL OTHER COMPETITORS!

 

[thesmokingman]

Be aware the Model 3 SR+ w. LFP battery from CATL/China will likely lose the $3,750 IRA subsidy sometime in March due to TBA battery sourcing requirements (thanks, Treasury Dept, that's ~10% of the car's price).

It's likely 1-2 years before Tesla can replace those batteries with qualified batts, if CATL plans to build a suitable N. American factory.

I expect 3SR+ to sell out in a hurry, well before all orders can be deliveried in advance of delayed Treasury rules. I expect a lot of unsatified demand and disappointed customers. Tesla can possible resume building 2170-based SR+ models, but those will involve a price increase (perhaps ~$2k more for a 2170 pack vs. LFP pack).

Oh that won't matter, getting a used 3 for a first car teen driver. The used EV credit has a tiny AGI cap though so not counting on that either. I'm just stoked we'll have decent options now under 30K.