Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TrendTrader007]

Do You Have a ‘Failure Résumé’? The Latest Profession Broadcasting Its Misses and Flubs

While on the subject of investing regrets

 

[StealthP3D]

I get 150kw speeds charging at the EA high speed chargers and it seems that is as good as the model 3. I charged many times right beside Teslas during the road trip. I assume because it was cheaper.

At the work site housing we have a home charger off a 30amp 220. More than enough for the daily drives. Dog stays cool all day for pennies. Do I wish it had more range, sure but I was able to buy this one.

Even the original Model 3 from 2018 can charge at 250 kW at a version 3 Supercharger. Of course a full-sized pickup will need more kW to achieve the same number of miles added per minute. I suspect that's why Tesla gave the Cybertruck the ability to use version 4 Superchargers and a peak charging speed 3-4 times as fast as the Lightning (which when combined with its lower consumption per mile will only accent that difference).

I'm not trying to crap on Ford here, or your decision to buy one (obviously, the Cybertruck wasn't even available). I'm just pointing out that a truck that can do all the things you say you need it to do, requires a higher power charging solution to be "as good as the Model 3". Instead, it has less ability to accept high power levels vs. the Model 3 (and in another ballpark compared to the Cybertruck).

 

[Ogre]

Ford has the drag of a high debt load, but I think Farley is going to do his best to push them into the electric future. It’s a tough road, but at least he’s making a very legitimate attempt.

GM was on-time with the EV transition, but they are incompetent.

Ford is reasonably competent but quite very late to the transition.

Tesla was was early and is exceptionally competent.

I think both of these companies existence is threatened by an affordable Cybertruck produced in volume. Half a million Cybertrucks a year is going to carve a deep ugly hole in Ford and GMs cash cows. Its very hard to find money to make billion dollar expansion projects when your cash cow is bleeding on the side of the road.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Lots of BS protests on twitter too. I saw some accounts crying about losing value on their Tesla but see no indication they are a Tesla owner.

It’s all FUDsters who should be paid no mind. Just perpetuating a downward spiral.

 

[Ogre]

What are your thoughts on the model 3 LR coming back after q1? They can't bring it back and price it for 50k because then after tax credit, it will be cheaper than the Sr+ when the sr+ tax credit goes away.

So what are some theories to skus and pricing? P3 going up in price? Sr+ going away? Lr no longer a sku?

Maybe using LFP for the M3 SR doesn’t make sense once the IRA mineral sourcing clause is active.

Seems like it might be a good idea to just delay the M3LR until the end of the quarter and drop the M3 SR out of the lineup once the new tax credits are finalized.

At that point, the M3LR at $50k makes a lot more sense.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Family has model 3, you know what- it can’t haul 100 gallons of diesel for our equipment, plus 20 gallons of oils, 10 gallons of grease, and 40 hydraulic hoses that are all in the truck and all made it on the 1200 mile trip. It did cut it. Around town it is just fine, the charging is fine, performance is fine, simple, back seat is brilliant space for a very large Komondor. You know what else, I was able to buy it unlike the CT I had on reservation. I get 150kw speeds charging at the EA high speed chargers and it seems that is as good as the model 3. I charged many times right beside Teslas during the road trip. I assume because it was cheaper.

At the work site housing we have a home charger off a 30amp 220. More than enough for the daily drives. Dog stays cool all day for pennies. Do I wish it had more range, sure but I was able to buy this one.

Thanks for the report! Nice to hear.

Even the original Model 3 from 2018 can charge at 250 kW at a version 3 Supercharger. Of course a full-sized pickup will need more kW to achieve the same number of miles added per minute. I suspect that's why Tesla gave the Cybertruck the ability to use version 4 Superchargers and a peak charging speed 3-4 times as fast as the Lightning (which when combined with its lower consumption per mile will only accent that difference).

I'm not trying to crap on Ford here, or your decision to buy one (obviously, the Cybertruck wasn't even available). I'm just pointing out that a truck that can do all the things you say you need it to do, requires a higher power charging solution to be "as good as the Model 3". Instead, it has less ability to accept high power levels vs. the Model 3 (and in another ballpark compared to the Cybertruck).

Yeah, but you came across as crapping on someone else's life choices. Charging speed is only one of many reasons to buy an EV. We have a Rivian SUV, and Tesla won't be making a competitor to that vehicle for the next, what, five years?

And BTW, Ford is waaaay ahead of Tesla when it comes to pulling energy out of the battery. Many, many stories abound of people running their homes from an F150 Lightning during an extended power outage. Heck, even a Rivian has like 10x the power output of any Tesla. Elon completely missed the point of being able to pull power from an EV. He keeps talking as if V2G if the only use case. It is not. Cybertruck is rumored to finally match the F150 capabilities. But what about the rest of the lineup???

 

[StealthP3D]

Agreed, and directly relevant to us, Windows needeed IOS to avoid anti-trust litigation as Tesla will need some other domestic competition.

Anti-trust actions are avoided by not using anti-competitive business tactics. Having a competitor doesn't prevent anti-trust actions from being taken if the company is using anti-competitive business tactics. Microsoft had other competitors, but they were abusing their market dominance to stifle the entry and growth of other competitors using multiple strong-arm tactics to keep the competition from gaining a foothold, at least according to the government and the settlements reached.

I've explained this before, but people continue to hold onto old misconceptions. Monopolies are not illegal, anti-competitive business tactics are. A monopoly achieved by using anti-competitive business tactics could be said to be an illegal monopoly (because it was achieved by bullying their way to the top) but, if the path Tesla is on results in a near monopoly down the road, it would not be an illegal monopoly (assuming they stay on their same path). Tesla's path is to innovate manufacturing and engineering to increase manufacturing efficiency and constantly drive the cost of the product lower. They also wisely invested in a global fast charging network. Neither of those things are anti-competitive - they are what capitalism encourages, bringing more value to the consumer.

 

[Ogre]

Since Elon is always late with his predictions, maybe his prediction of Q4 being epic slipped a quarter to Q1

We haven’t seen Q4 earnings yet. Maybe his prediction was spot on.

 

[thesmokingman]

Agreed, and directly relevant to us, Windows needeed IOS to avoid anti-trust litigation as Tesla will need some other domestic competition.

That's a wacky time to bring in anti-trust. Me thinks you don't fully understand this point. Look up what Intel actually did to AMD. That is anti-trust. Just being excellent at what you do is not grounds for anti-trust.

 

[StealthP3D]

Thanks for the report! Nice to hear.



Yeah, but you came across as crapping on someone else's life choices. Charging speed is only one of many reasons to buy an EV. We have a Rivian SUV, and Tesla won't be making a competitor to that vehicle for the next, what, five years?

And BTW, Ford is waaaay ahead of Tesla when it comes to pulling energy out of the battery. Many, many stories abound of people running their homes from an F150 Lightning during an extended power outage. Heck, even a Rivian has like 10x the power output of any Tesla. Elon completely missed the point of being able to pull power from an EV. He keeps talking as if V2G if the only use case. It is not. Cybertruck is rumored to finally match the F150 capabilities. But what about the rest of the lineup???

I took issue with the claim that the Ford charging experience was as good as a Model 3, just a little slow. A slow charging experience is what makes people reluctant to adopt EV's and the Lightning at 150 kW max is not "as good as a Model 3" at 250 kW max. Especially when considering a vehicle that is half as efficient needs twice the charging to speed to equal the number of miles it adds per hour.

I took special pains to point out I was *not* crapping on the decision to buy a Lightning because the Cybertruck was not even available yet. So, I would appreciate it if you would avoid mischaracterizing what I said. The discussion was about charging speeds, not crapping on purchase decisions or how the trucks compared on all features.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Ah, but we will, won’t we? In all seriousness, think about how many people would buy a Teslabot for housekeeping etc., but in the back of their mind, be thinking of the positive personal security possibilities. It will be a selling feature…

Until the stories go around about them getting hacked and "recycling" their former owners....

 

[Singuy]

Maybe using LFP for the M3 SR doesn’t make sense once the IRA mineral sourcing clause is active.

Seems like it might be a good idea to just delay the M3LR until the end of the quarter and drop the M3 SR out of the lineup once the new tax credits are finalized.

At that point, the M3LR at $50k makes a lot more sense.

Right? I feel like I'm not the only one who thinks the SR is going away.

 

[Fairchild]

Always fun to time the market.

So are you waiting for it to blow past 230 ?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/10cpyuv

Claims it's over 100 stalls now all operational but Tesla Find Us still says 80 stalls.

I think this is the proper thread for that location (Coalinga = Harris ranch?). But no one has posted the new PICs yet. I can post there if someone wants to confirm I have the right thread.

Supercharger - Coalinga, CA (LIVE 15 Dec 2022, 80 stalls)

It’s open, but in a weirdly-partial way. All pedestals are lit, but the first I tried didn’t charge. My error: That’s the info for the old chargers. The new chargers aren’t on the navigation map.

teslamotorsclub.com

Spoiler: Big pictures

View attachment 896076
View attachment 896077
View attachment 896078

Are any of them CCS or is that dream (nightmare) over?

 

[Fairchild]

Always fun to time the market. So are you waiting for it to blow past 230 ?

Graduated re-entry, as it breaks through each level of resistance. Started with 500 early lucky Fri, the 13th, at $117. Let it blow.

 

[lakefiller]

Great thread by James:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614772858546274305

Notice how ASP is staying relatively flat.


View attachment 896232

5-6 weeks ago James had Q4 deliveries at around 460-470k while Troy was hovering around 420-430

You cant believe anything James says. He's a fanboy that cares more about owing trolls than he does about being honest to his viewers.

 

[Bet TSLA]

He had bought convertible bonds back in the day.

Well-spoken and smart, but doesn’t make him any less sleazy since he ran his pump-and-dump SPAC scheme over the past few years. Surprised he hasn’t been flogged more for this.

Didn't he also pump and dump crypto along with that a**hole Sacks? I seem to remember seeing some clip of them laughing about how they got out and the fools got burned. Or am I imagining this?

 

[Cheburashka]

Link to petition to change language in IRA to include all versions of Model Y (currently 15,000 signatures as of this posting):

Sign the Petition

Fix the Inflation Reduction Act EV Tax Credit

www.change.org

Looks like the petitioners got what they wanted, but probably not in the way they wanted...

Gotta give it to the Biden admin, I think they made Tesla drop the prices.

I don't understand the S/X price drop though. They should have increased to make up for lost margins. Not as price sensitive as the 3/Y.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Doug DeMuro has a video out stating used Tesla prices have dropped faster than other makes. He makes the statement based on data he is seeing from the vehicle auction website he owns (Cars and Bids). The reasons are:

• Macro - affecting all vehicles but Tesla more as a higher % of Tesla purchasers are tech/finance related and they have been disproportionately hit with layoffs or interest rate rises
• Orderbook reduction - people don't need to either pay up for used or wait 7 months for new anymore
• Elon - alienating core fans
• Competition - tesla models have an aging design and competitors catching up in many areas

Strangely he left out increases in production which is the biggest driver in reduced used prices IMO.

He said that even he is getting interested in picking up an older Model 3 Performance if they get down to ~$25k used given the performance/value tradeoff, and he's never shown an interest in owning one before.

The only thing that’s kinda right is aging models. I think the model S is a beautiful classy car but it and the x are definitely showing their styling age.

Just sayin.

 

[Ogre]

Right? I feel like I'm not the only one who thinks the SR is going away.

Maybe. Another possibility is Tesla keeps selling them but the bulk of them end up getting purchased by businesses who can take advantage of the commercial credit. I think a big chunk of the Hertz fleet is Model 3 SRs.

Teslas across the board have become a lot more appealing for bean counting fleet buyers. Hadn’t really thought about that previously.