Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

TL0 (in Europe) is a trailing TSLA indicator, due to the timezone and market opening hours differences. It's best to follow TSLA, with pre-market data if need be.

...but our market is closed today...
(Plus, the FWIW disclaimer)

 

[Cattledog]

...but our market is closed today...
(Plus, the FWIW disclaimer)

Yup, it's all no you today, Europe, so get out there and buy some shares to create momentum!

 

[rikkert]

TL0 (in Europe) is a trailing TSLA indicator, due to the timezone and market opening hours differences. It's best to follow TSLA, with pre-market data if need be.

Trailing? As you know, time-wise, Germany is ahead of USA

 

[ThisStockGood]

Trailing? As you know, time-wise, Germany is ahead of USA

Also time-wise, that is

 

[replicant]

Trailing? As you know, time-wise, Germany is ahead of USA

Sure but if on the previous day, the German market closed before the US one, TL0 will catch up with the remaining hours (except if the market is closed/was for the whole day). Usually, TL0 will follow TSLA a few hours late then wait for the US market to reopen before lining up again.

 

[jerry33]

Looks like the petitioners got what they wanted, but probably not in the way they wanted...

Gotta give it to the Biden admin, I think they made Tesla drop the prices.

I don't understand the S/X price drop though. They should have increased to make up for lost margins. Not as price sensitive as the 3/Y.

Prices are the same or more than 2021 and in 2021 the margins were fine. It only makes sense to drop the prices when the cost of manufacturing reduces. Keeps the same margin and makes the car more affordable. Puts pressure on the ICE competition as well. Great move by Tesla.

 

[Rohan]

That means years of making spare parts for the other colors. I do admit I think Tesla has been too conservative here, but you can't go nuts with it either.

Hi, I think the spare parts are generic and sprayed at time of use. I'm sure that's what I was told for my new wing mirror...

 

[joh01652]

Great thread by James:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614772858546274305

Notice how ASP is staying relatively flat.


View attachment 896232

Thanks for sharing. Here's my favorite graph--note that revenue for the first three quarters of 2022 already exceeds revenue for all of 2021:
https://twitter.com/ICannot_Enough/status/1614788736549535745

 

[jerry33]

Interesting to see prices - do you know a EU market (or even for single Euro-currency country) good site that lists Tesla & competitors & allows sorting/filtering on criteria? Edit: did it in the end

I'd looked at some of BYD's European prices before (I think Mathias Fons did some Danish pricing comparisons). I'd assumed prices were starting higher, with higher trims & then would reduce over time once they had a feel for sustainable prices, delivered first waves of reservations and then started selling the lower trims. My recollection was that BYD wasn't competitive even at that time in Denmark. After Tesla's price drops, definitely not.

My point however was the the body of the article stated that BYD was one of the LEAST affected in China - so I wondered if less well known competitors were most affected, or whether ones I'd heard of eg Xpeng, Nio were the ones MOST in trouble.

Unfortunately EV database doesn't list BYD yet - I find it useful to select 2 or 3 brands & compare by sorting on efficiency, price/range or price.

For Hyundai/Kia/Tesla - cheapest & most expensive for price/distance with Teslas mixed in. This excludes additional options, and doesn't capture preferences, Supercharger usefulness & much more. I think Tesla is well placed in this list as the only H/K above Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD are older Kona/Niro & brand new (maybe not delivered yet) Ioniq 6 two wheel drive. Ioniq 5 & Kia EV6 seem worse price/range options.

EV Database

A comprehensive overview of all electric vehicles in the UK. Search and compare by range, make, model and price.

ev-database.org

or cheatsheet if preferred - EV Database

Edit: By taking UK out of URL, I got BYD and Tesla together. BYD are uncompetitive, with only 60kWh Atto 3 being cheaper by 2-3000 Euros (as you said).

EV Database

A complete overview of all electric vehicles in Europe. Search and compare by range, make, model and price.

ev-database.org

View attachment 896338

People focus way too much on this EV or that EV. The competition is ICE, not other EVs. Down the road this will be an issue, but not now.

 

[Madmolecule]

Prices are the same or more than 2021 and in 2021 the margins were fine. It only makes sense to drop the prices when the cost of manufacturing reduces. Keeps the same margin and makes the car more affordable. Puts pressure on the ICE competition as well. Great move by Tesla.

4D chess for sure. Piss off your loyal installed base, still waiting for my early adopter button, crash the stock, blame it on everything but poor management. I wish I was as smart as Elon’s brother, the only one who i know that sold at the literal peak. And Elon sold all the way down. I’ll start buying when Elon stops selling and starts to buy.

Great move Biden!!

Elon needs the Chinese to teach him how to make the model 2. What, Texas cant?

 

[chiptoe]

I don't see any reason Tesla can't make a 4680 battery pack for the SR, there are 3 chemistries which could work, I don't see a reason to rule any chemistry out.

A pack made of 4680 cells made by Tesla works for the IRA.

The interesting question is whether the Model 3 Highland has a 4680 structural pack.

Does seem like the same 4680 pack that is in the Austin MY AWD would get pretty close to 300 miles in a M3

 

[GhostSkater]

The higher end Lightning’s charge at 250 or 350 or what have you. I have the lowest price one I could buy because I did not want to buy a petrol truck and Tesla failed to be able to sell me one and of the Ford lightning this is what I could afford.

Another neat thing ....outlets everywhere. awesomen for someone that works. Diesel tank uses an ac pump which is more powerful than the pump wired into the old truck wiring harness. Outlets lock out or not if truck is off- small stuff like that makes me realize they had real workers giving input.

I do worry that the CT might lack that insight. Just creating Highway princesses. Already I am worried about bed height and tailgate height.

That's false

Even the highest trim peaks at around only 160 kW and really quickly drop to around 110 kW and maintains that to 80%, that is a incredible bad charge curve for a 131 kWh pack

It means 10-80% takes 50 minutes, and since it's such a weird charging curve that doesn't gradually goes down you don't gain much by charging more frequently to a lower state of charge, even 10-40% takes 20 minutes. If the Lightning pack was a Tesla pack and just scaled up from there, it could hit 400 kW peak and keep the same charge time as Tesla vehicles

Also, take a look at the video bellow at 22:50, it peaks at 160 kW at almost any state of charge you plug it in. Why? Because Ford did one of the worst thermal management system I've ever seen on the battery pack, there is barely any contact between between the cells and the cooling plate, and that is ignoring that there is quite a few layers that the heat energy has to travel between the cell and the cooling fluid, so they can't charge at any higher power because they can't control the cell temperature, look at the Munro video about it

If we go with that logic and being generous assume that Cybertruck can achieve a 2.3~2.5 mi/kWh consumption, it means it will need a 200 to 220 kWh pack

Doing the same scaling as current vehicles, peak charging power can be somewhere from 600 kW to 670 kW, that's 3.7 to 4.2 (nice) times higher, keeping the charge time that most Tesla vehicles have of 20 to 25 minutes from 10-80%. And this is assuming 4680 does nothing to have the capability of maintaining peak power for longer of having a higher peak C rate

There is a non zero chance that it will have a 10-80% charging time bellow 20 minutes on V4 Superchargers, on a 500 mile range, that will be a roadtrip and towing monster, this is how you make people go into EV trucks, not by cramming batteries and motors in a existing platform, and for some reason giving it a quite bad charging performance

 

[UkNorthampton]

People focus way too much on this EV or that EV. The competition is ICE, not other EVs. Down the road this will be an issue, but not now.

I agree. This is just on the narrow point that Chinese made/brand cars do NOT have a significant (or actual) price advantage over Teslas in Europe. Therefore I wouldn't expect them to have an advantage in USA either. The EV competition ISN'T cheaper.

My main point however (in response to the article that started this) is which Chinese EV competitors have been most affected by Tesla's price reductions - especially in China.


ICE vs EVs - price comparisons
On the wider point of ICE vs EVs, I tried to find comparative prices for ICE but if you take BMW as an example, the price in the UK that people pay ISN'T obvious. BMW buyers say that discounts are normal, many claim huge discounts - how does anyone know what to pay? If I was considering a BMW, I'd look through forums, use discount services, look at car magazines (some have target prices), look at lease prices & try to use as an indication. However, I probably just wouldn't consider a new BMW as I hate the tactics.

Please bear in mind that many BMW purchases are company cars. The EV/ICE advantages regarding personal and company taxation are huge. EV wins by a mile.

Regarding target price, What Car lists them for BMW 3 Series - I have no idea how accurate, the discount seems much less than I would have expected if loud BMW fanboys who love to haggle are to be believed (I didn't)

Model 3 (SR): £42,990 - £5,000 more than an entry level 3 Series with no options (options could eat that rapidly)
Model 3 Long Range : £50,990 - £5,500 LESS than 2nd nuttiest 3 Series with o-60 at 4.4 seconds

Spoiler: Uk-BMW-3SeriesPrices

BMW 3 Series Deals & Offers | Save up to £8,194

Looking for a new BMW 3 Series ? Save time, money and hassle by letting What Car? find the best deal and the right price for your next new BMW 3 Series .

www.whatcar.com

 

[KBF]

Anti-trust actions are avoided by not using anti-competitive business tactics. Having a competitor doesn't prevent anti-trust actions from being taken if the company is using anti-competitive business tactics. Microsoft had other competitors, but they were abusing their market dominance to stifle the entry and growth of other competitors using multiple strong-arm tactics to keep the competition from gaining a foothold, at least according to the government and the settlements reached.

I've explained this before, but people continue to hold onto old misconceptions. Monopolies are not illegal, anti-competitive business tactics are. A monopoly achieved by using anti-competitive business tactics could be said to be an illegal monopoly (because it was achieved by bullying their way to the top) but, if the path Tesla is on results in a near monopoly down the road, it would not be an illegal monopoly (assuming they stay on their same path). Tesla's path is to innovate manufacturing and engineering to increase manufacturing efficiency and constantly drive the cost of the product lower. They also wisely invested in a global fast charging network. Neither of those things are anti-competitive - they are what capitalism encourages, bringing more value to the consumer.

Is fact, Tesla has done the opposite in the past: they have encouraged emerging businesses by opening up many patents... I have never heard of other corporations doing so. ( "Pro-Trust actions"? )

 

[Nocturnal]

I do worry that the CT might lack that insight. Just creating Highway princesses. Already I am worried about bed height and tailgate height.

Bed height at least will be superior as it will supposedly have adjustable suspension.

The Cybertruck might not be ideal for a small number of tradesmen, but it will be superior for towing and don't forget that the vast majority of trucks are commuter vehicles. I find it hard to believe that "can get something from over the side" is worth paying 20k more for. If the CT winds up just dominating in towing and commuting it will become the top pickup in the country before we know it.

That's a wacky time to bring in anti-trust. Me thinks you don't fully understand this point. Look up what Intel actually did to AMD. That is anti-trust. Just being excellent at what you do is not grounds for anti-trust.

If Tesla is the only domestic auto company, does that make it more or less likely to be a victim of anti-trust law? That's the point. I think it's odd that anyone would desire that outcome, even Elon doesn't.

 

[JRP3]

I don't understand the S/X price drop though. They should have increased to make up for lost margins. Not as price sensitive as the 3/Y.

In relation to production volumes S/X had much larger inventory buildup than 3/Y.

 

[JRP3]

outlets everywhere? Do you need more than one? Or are some of these “real workers” too lazy to go around the vehicle to plug in?

You quoted the word "workers" but did you not know it means "more than one"? More outlets are of course desirable.

 

[2daMoon]

If Tesla is the only domestic auto company, does that make it more or less likely to be a victim of anti-trust law? That's the point. I think it's odd that anyone would desire that outcome, even Elon doesn't.

If Tesla became the only domestic auto company in the US, it wouldn't be because of any malice on Tesla's part.

It would be completely due to malfeasance on the part of the companies who failed because:

• they had no vision for the future;
• they rested upon their laurels of days gone by; and
• between management and unions, they fought valiantly to stifle innovation while maintaining ever-lower levels of mediocrity

 

[keydiver]

The only thing that’s kinda right is aging models. I think the model S is a beautiful classy car but it and the x are definitely showing their styling age.

Just sayin.

Nope, sorry, not seeing it. Every time I see my Model S sitting in a parking lot, waiting for me to get in, I think it is the most beautiful car in the lot. I think the looks are timeless.

 

[Nocturnal]

Model 3 refresh?

Tweet

Spoiler

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614853847549202433