Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

Sounds like SR is still not profitable so they’re all but burying it? Seems pretty drastic for them to remove SR from the website after telling the world just weeks ago the company’s switching to online-only sales. Bears and scare-media are going to have a field day with this latest news.

 

[defc0n]

But how much was the price difference between the new AWD and old LR ? All else equal? 2-3k? With AP of course.

Some people want the better efficiency of RWD and really don’t want AWD.

 

[anthonyj]

It’s about time Tesla takes control of the narrative. FSD/Autonomy to me felt like an abandoned baby that they hoped everyone would just forget about. I’ve even called it Theranos FSD (and most people on the autonomous board would agree!). If they can actually show something REAL during the event, and not a Model 3 driving by itself for 20 feet in the dark, and Elon isn’t the person giving timelines, then narrative will change big time and I’ll eat a poopoo sandwich

 

[Fact Checking]

Just checked, before this update, pricing was as follows
SR+ 37500
AWD 48500
P3D 59500

With $3000 Autopilot included, 2000+ change for SR+, 1000 change for AWD and 0 for Performance.

I don't think it's necessarily handing out money from Tesla. Now that Autopilot is standard, FSD take rate will see a substantial increase, which cost $5000 and $7000 after delivery.

For Tesla, what's lost on Autopilot is recovered from FSD.
But for customers, it seems the whole package gets cheaper.

Also, white interior is now $1,000 - it used to be $1,500?

Edit: it was always $1,000.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Not gone, just de-emphasized:

Makes sense, since SR+ orders have a 85%+ take rate.

I think the price of the SR+ offers a great value over the SR, but we don’t know how much of that 85% take rate was due to the value proposition and how much was due to the fact that Tesla pushed delivery dates out 6-8 weeks for the SR after accepting order deposits.

 

[Pezpunk]

IMO either the SR Model 3 is now the only product they are willing to sell without Autopilot, or its price has been raised to $37k. There's no way they'd be throwing Autopilot in for free on their lowest-margin vehicle.

 

[RobStark]

Software limited leather.

Tesla will software lock a few carbon atoms on the polyurethane chain of the "vegan leather."

 

[MP3Mike]

Not gone, just de-emphasized:

"As a result, Model 3 Standard will now be a software-limited version of the Standard Plus, and we are taking it off the online ordering menu, which just means that to get it, customers will need to call us or visit any one of the several hundred Tesla stores. Deliveries of Model 3 Standard will begin this weekend."​

Makes sense, since SR+ orders have a 85%+ take rate.

I think this will back-fire a little. With people now knowing that the SR is a software limited SR+ they are more likely to order a SR for two reasons:

• They can safely charge to 100% every day. (I'm sure they will still get warnings after repeated 100% charges.)
• If the 10% less range is really a problem they can poney up the difference with no trade-in loss.

On the other hand they made it more difficult to order, so maybe it will keep things about the same. Of course if it really is just software limited that means it is upgraded to power seats with premium materials, which might get people to favor the SR. (And make others pissed because they wanted the fabric seats.)

 

[Big Blue 1011]

With the introduction of leasing, have the odds for a capital raise just gone up?

 

[Fact Checking]

FSD/Autonomy to me felt like an abandoned baby

Nope, they were waiting for the 10x faster HW3 which is now in production.

By not talking about it too much they avoided Osborning their own sales.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla coming to grips that they can’t make profit on a $35k car.

Poor execution.

 

[MP3Mike]

Note: They haven't made AP default on the Model Y yet...

 

[carterm2]

So... Enterprise, Uber and Lyft just got served notice. There is a new ride service coming and it is gonna be sweeet.

All my orders were too low yesterday and none triggered. I will be expecting a sharp move to $275 in the morning.

 

[DaveT]

I think this will back-fire a little. With people now knowing that the SR is a software limited SR+ they are more likely to order a SR for two reasons:

• They can safely charge to 100% every day. (I'm sure they will still get warnings after repeated 100% charges.)
• If the 10% less range is really a problem they can poney up the difference with no trade-in loss.

On the other hand they made it more difficult to order, so maybe it will keep things about the same. Of course if it really is just software limited that means it is upgraded to power seats with premium materials, which might get people to favor the SR. (And make others pissed because they wanted the fabric seats.)

SR will probably be gone from the off-menu as well within 1-2 months.

 

[Pras]

I think the price of the SR+ offers a great value over the SR, but we don’t know how much of that 85% take rate was due to the value proposition and how much was due to the fact that Tesla pushed delivery dates out 6-8 weeks for the SR after accepting order deposits.

The value difference between SR and SR+ was so much for a little price on 35k car that SR didn’t make sense. So not surprised.

 

[gluu]

Couple of thoughts

• They couldn’t make SR work financially. The sunk costs in robots could never be recouped to make it viable. It’s essentially only available now because Elon promised. SR+ is still an amazing end result however, same msrp as a 3 series
• Dropping LR RWD and SR probably helps streamline production. That’s potentially one of the reasons production was down in Q1.
• Pulling the leasing demand lever which is huge. They’re trying to discourage it however with the FSD BS. I believe in eventual FSD but this is not really why they’re stating this.

 

[defc0n]

Note: They haven't made AP default on the Model Y yet...

I would certainly expect that to happen before actual sales of model Y now. Which I’m somewhat relieved about since when/if I buy a model Y I won’t have to make the decision of possibly not getting AP.

 

[RobStark]

Also, white interior is now $1,000 - it used to be $1,500?

White polyurethane cows are now as cheap to raise as black polyurethane cows.

Probably due to economies of scale.

 

[MP3Mike]

Which is why they are bundling Autopilot with every Tesla model except the SR. That's genial, because Autopilot take rate is around 90% in community surveys.

I.e. you won't be able to buy Autopilot not FSD for the SR, you'll have to upgrade to SR+. That's a big barrier against too high SR take rates IMO.

Where are you getting those ideas from? I haven't seen Tesla say either of those things.

 

[CharlesSr]

I think this Model 3 lineup change will make Standard Range model much better a deal than before and may push people to downgrade from Standard Range plus.