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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I have no idea how this will be received by the market tomorrow.... :confused:
I don't think it will be much of a needle mover in the short term.

In the long term, Tesla being 1st to the autonomous ride sharing market will make us all rich. And even if they aren't 1st, the fact they will be using cars they already made money on will still put them on top.
 
Ok now I'm officially excited for the 22nd autonomy event! Sounds like they might want to start talking Tesla Network and are preparing for it.

Soooooo glad that their thinking is on the same wavelength as mine. I always thought that leasing Model 3 allows them a chance to get back the car asset after depreciation and use it in the network. They went even further than my expectations by saying if you lease the Model 3, you can't buy it at the end of the lease. I'm a happy camper
 
Lease cost $22000 for 36 months on a 40K car
 

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"Please note, customers who choose leasing over owning will not have the option to purchase their car at the end of the lease, because with full autonomy coming in the future via an over-the-air software update, we plan to use those vehicles in the Tesla ride-hailing network."
So they are guiding full autonomy in 3 years?!
 
I believe this is likely the best explanation. The purchase obligations are really starting to bite this year. In fact, looking at evolution of the disclosed numbers some purchase obligations moved from 2018 to 2019. At the time it wasn't clear if this was due to Tesla not ready to absorb whatever Panasonic was producing or that Panasonic wasn't able to deliver what Tesla wanted to purchase. Now that we have confirmation that the Gigafactory is running at 35GWh but Tesla is at best absorbing 21 GWh on a yearly rate, there is no way to spin that as good news.
Um, it's good news?!?!? They have the cell supply which no other manufacturer has.

And that 20GWh rate is based on 5500 cars sustained every single week (Tesla is still not there) with a very generous average capacity 66kWh per car (doubtful they'll maintain that kind of average once SR is available worldwide) and doing slightly better than guided 2GWh energy product. Tesla will need to find a way to soak up 14GWh of cells very soon now.
Trivial to do. But more on how in another post.
 
"Please note, customers who choose leasing over owning will not have the option to purchase their car at the end of the lease, because with full autonomy coming in the future via an over-the-air software update, we plan to use those vehicles in the Tesla ride-hailing network."

I had mentioned this very things a few years ago back when Tesla network was first mentioned. Why would Tesla continue to sell cars to individuals if they can make truck loads of money keeping them all to themselves. Crank the cars out and send them directly to ride sharing.
 
An Update to Our Vehicle Lineup

Um, did they just release a massive nugget of news tonight.

Wow, lots of nice info!

One is the take rate of SR+ orders:

"Last quarter, we introduced two new Model 3 variants with more competitive pricing than ever before – Standard and Standard Plus. Since then, Standard Plus has sold at more than six times the rate of Standard, far exceeding our expectations"​

So SR+ take rate is higher than 85%, which is fantastic. The wording suggests that this is actual order flow level take rate, not impacted by production.

"Tesla vehicles now come with Autopilot bundled as a standard feature for less than the prior cost of the option. For example, Model 3 Standard Plus used to cost $37,500, plus $3,000 for the Autopilot option. It now costs $39,500, with Autopilot included."​

I believe the China AutoPilot bundling offer in February was a trial balloon, and they went for it.

Given that Autopilot take rate was in excess of 80% in surveys this should eliminate the lower margin AP- sales.

It also puts pressure on competitors plus makes it easier to buy the FSD option.

"Please note, customers who choose leasing over owning will not have the option to purchase their car at the end of the lease, because with full autonomy coming in the future via an over-the-air software update, we plan to use those vehicles in the Tesla ride-hailing network."​

Wow - will bearish analysts now add Lyft's valuation to Tesla's now? Just kidding ... :D
 
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TSLA is valued as a growth stock. Any sign that TSLA won't continue to grow at a high rate calls that valuation into question.

OK, that's an argument. :shrug:

A freeze on new investment in both GF1 and GF3 most certainly raises valid questions about Tesla's growth going forward.

No, it doesn't. Cells aren't the bottleneck right now.