Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Fun graphic I found.
View attachment 897804

Where does all BYD's gross profit go?

 

[Unpilot]

and staples like beer though.

My kind of guy/gal.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm surprised at the relatively low trading volume today. With quarterly options expirations, I was expecting a heavy trading day. Not sure what, if anything, that means.

Maybe the quarters got jammed in the TSLA Whack-a-Mole machine and they can't play until it is fixed?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Does anyone think we will retest that 125$-126$ low again next week?

I don’t know about next week. But if Elon ends up with large multi billion dollar legal issues he will have to sell shares to pay the bills. I have no idea if this will happen but I can see double digits if this happens.

Wild guess. What do I know.

 

[Nocturnal]

Where does all BYD's gross profit go?

Not sure. Very high/inefficient capex perhaps?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Maybe the quarters got jammed in the TSLA Whack-a-Mole machine and they can't play until it is fixed?

Waiting for the interns to be left in charge....

 

[ZeApelido]

Where does all BYD's gross profit go?

In reverse

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone think next week will be defined by anything other than the earnings call?

What's the implied move due to Options open interest? That's usually predictive for magnitude of the move (but not for the direction)

 

[Mengy]

Where does all BYD's gross profit go?

Production is hard, particularly high volume efficient production. BYD makes a lot of EV's and they are one of the more successful in the industry with regards to manufacturing while being profitable.

Tesla just makes them look bad by comparison.

 

[ZeApelido]

Model 3 delivery estimates in UK and Germany pushed backs a month

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616481895226957830

 

[Captkerosene]

I'm going to side with Sandy on this one, regarding FSD. The R&D costs, GPU supercomputer, and Dojo dev costs, are very small compared to the cost of equipping each car with the hardware, regardless of if the client ever buys FSD.

Does your argument have some truth - yes. Dojo and the GPU supercomputer are costs, but they are not billions, which is literally what it cost Tesla to deploy the FSD hardware en masse, even though it is not used by everyone.

Is Sandy being a bit hyperbolic that it's "pure profit", only a tad. If you've given aware the hardware and already accounted for that in the COGS for the car itself, the rest of it is a very very small cost.

I suspect that there will be some pretty big hardware expenses to turn the current FSD package into full autonomy. New cameras, heaters, wipers and HW4 to name a potential few.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Not sure. Very high/inefficient capex perhaps?

They are ramping their factories significantly, so there could be a big drag. Presumably, they aren't as capital efficient as Tesla.

 

[blckdmp]

I'm surprised at the relatively low trading volume today. With quarterly options expirations, I was expecting a heavy trading day. Not sure what, if anything, that means.

Reverse Cramer?

 

[Gigapress]

The money shot:

View attachment 897845
Emphasized that these numbers are “uber-conservative”:

• For example, not accounting for Tesla getting aluminum cheaper than base market price due to long-term purchase commitments
• Revenue is just base vehicle price; Does not include software revenue or hardware extras
• Does not account for $45/kWh battery credit (the 2022 numbers are from Giga Texas 4680 Y) which is about $3k off of the effective net cost
• This was most likely including ultra sonic system cost, which has now been deleted. We had varying estimates of a few hundred dollars total cost savings from that move.

The 2018 M3 numbers have not been adjusted for inflation to 2023 $$.

As Corey noted in interview with Farzad yesterday, a roughly $1k chunk of the cost increase since 2018 was due to adding the heat pump.
The team currently guesses that there’ll be upper 30% margins on Cybertruck, though obviously that’s not based on detailed hard data like the 3 and Y estimates and we don’t know what the actual prices will be.

40 second cycle time at the factory. Industry norm is 60 minimum.

For about the last year since I got into more detailed analysis, I’ve been estimating Tesla will get gross profits per car of substantially greater than $20k per car sometime in 2023 or 2024. It’s reassuring to see the Munro team getting similar numbers with much deeper cost estimation.

I just noticed that Munro used $58990 as the Y LR AWD price. It’s actually $52990. Does anyone know why? It seems strange the Munro team would make such a big and simple error.

 

[hitchhiker]

I don’t know about next week. But if Elon ends up with large multi billion dollar legal issues he will have to sell shares to pay the bills. I have no idea if this will happen but I can see double digits if this happens.

Wild guess. What do I know.

If that happens, it will be more than a year down the road. The trial is still going on. After that there is the appeal... plus all the foot-dragging along the way. In the event he loses, any need for cash to cover it is probably not until at least 2025.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

For what it is worth, usually when I click on TSLA in the Apple Stocks app I see a bunch of FUD and negative articles. Now most of the articles are about how well the price cuts are working and demand is soaring.

 

[bkp_duke]

I just noticed that Munro used $58990 as the Y LR AWD price. It’s actually $52990. Does anyone know why? It seems strange the Munro team would make such a big and simple error.

Average of the mix for the model, not the baseline. So they are assuming some options sold, some Performance models in the mix, etc.

 

[Singuy]

Where does all BYD's gross profit go?

Well they run a lot of businesses all at once and not charge a premium on their products. They have evs from 15k all the way to halo cars. Phevs, battery productions, and just closed down their ICE departments. They have a semi division too. Nothing is at great scale as they have a myriads of products while Tesla mainly focus on two products.

 

[kbM3]

Fun graphic I found.
View attachment 897804

That comparison is disingenuous. Tesla’s closest peers in ASP are Mercedes and BMW, neither of whom are on it. I am sure the list would still be very impressive with both of those manufactures on it, but leaving them off gives an exaggerated impression.

 

[Dreadnought]

Model 3 delivery estimates in UK and Germany pushed backs a month

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616481895226957830

I had noticed the same on the German configuration page and was about to post about it but realized that these are imported. Very likely, the reason is simply that there won't be another ship arriving on time for delivery in the remaining 11 days of the month. More indicative for a return of the backlog are delivery times for Berlin-made Model Y LR and P variants, which you still can get in January as of now. With February around the corner, only when estimates have March as earliest will I read this as demand clearly exceeding production. I'm positive that it's only a matter of time and I will check back occasionally.