Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I like the video, but Sandy is being a bit disingenuous when he says FSD sales are pure profit. Yes, it has very little effect on gross margins the way that Munro calculates such. But it does affect net margins or company profits. All the Dojo engineering costs, GPU supercomputers, very expensive AI engineers cost money. To answer Sandy’s question, that’s where all Tesla cash from gross margins goes to. I’m just not sure Sandy has taken into account all the FSD development costs in his FSD margin estimation when he says it is pure profit.

BTW, another drag on net profit, or earnings, is now also TeslaBot development. And continual engineering improvement of all Tesla vehicles including several that are in deep development. All this investment is going to result in huge revenue and profit down the road, but it does tamp down Tesla’s earnings now.

I'm guessing Sandy is looking at it that way because Tesla is growing sales at over 50% annually, so each additional sale of FSD is pure profit. He would look at it differently if a company had steady-state sales or, as legacy auto has been experiencing, declining sales.

Your point about Teslabot is what most investors are currently missing. Tesla is developing humanoid robots without racking up any debt whatsoever. This is unheard of! Tesla is one of the biggest no-brainer, low risk, high reward long-term investments available. Rational people should be gobbling it up to gain future financial independence, but people are literally incapable of connecting the dots through all the media noise and negativity.

The advantage of this failure goes to the people who are able to continue to acquire shares at low prices.

 

[jerry33]

I just noticed that Munro used $58990 as the Y LR AWD price. It’s actually $52990. Does anyone know why? It seems strange the Munro team would make such a big and simple error.

How long before the show was the script written? That might be the reason.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Partly culture (see social media) but the media itself is hugely influenced by advertising dollars. And then you have media barrons who own large media organizations (like Bezos) who have their own agenda. It is a mess.

I absolutely agree, and I take all that to be components of our culture.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey, fun FSD idea for a Friday -- Teach the basic animal types (goat, chicken, duck, cow...) so when a Tesla stops for that animal crossing, it joins in on the fun with it's own automatic animal honk! Maybe meow like it hurts when the car sees a cat.

At night, it could add a headlight strobe effect to make it look like they're floating across - sync Vision! Subscription price - $ky's the limit.

Bahahahah!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I'm guessing Sandy is looking at it that way because Tesla is growing sales at over 50% annually, so each additional sale of FSD is pure profit. He would look at it differently if a company had steady-state sales or, as legacy auto has been experiencing, declining sales.

Your point about Teslabot is what most investors are currently missing. Tesla is developing humanoid robots without racking up any debt whatsoever. This is unheard of! Tesla is one of the biggest no-brainer, low risk, high reward long-term investments available. Rational people should be gobbling it up to gain future financial independence, but people are literally incapable of connecting the dots through all the media noise and negativity.

The advantage of this failure goes to the people who are able to continue to acquire shares at low prices.

I'm not an accounting type person so I might be showing off my ignorance, but I don't like the use of gross profit and gross margin. It seems like Net should be the only thing that counts. It's the least fudgeable and the most apples to apples.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I forget I even have a frunk most of the time.

Probably wouldn't be the case if it was power operated, a la Lucid Motors, but that's likely to generate dislikes . . . .

Seriously, at the price point they have/had the MS and MX at, why are they not power operated? They'd get used a lot more if they were since one would not have to touch the paint, bugs, etc. to open and close the thing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm surprised at the relatively low trading volume today. With quarterly options expirations, I was expecting a heavy trading day. Not sure what, if anything, that means.

And this got 2 laughs, not sure why. Is it bc they are out of artillery?

And if this is the case, wouldn't it also be a bad time for a whale buy big without actually causing it to go up in the process? So I guess we're just stuck here at max pain. But what happens on Monday I wonder? Is that when the real FOMO starts with earnings looming and margins front/center? (Asking for my wife.)

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Model 3 delivery estimates in UK and Germany pushed backs a month

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616481895226957830

Perhaps because it's only a week and a half until the end of January . . . that would explain why the EDD move back a month, FWIW.

 

[SunCatcher]

Hey, fun FSD idea for a Friday -- Teach the basic animal types (goat, chicken, duck, cow...) so when a Tesla stops for that animal crossing, it joins in on the fun with it's own automatic animal honk! Maybe meow like it hurts when the car sees a cat.

At night, it could add a headlight strobe effect to make it look like they're floating across - sync Vision! Subscription price - $ky's the limit.

Bahahahah!

View attachment 897877

Might want to master the basics first?

 

[SOULPEDL]

$495 to find out how not to do Tesla Vision? No thanks. Anyone?
AV Sensors Expo 2023 event fully in-person in Detroit, Michigan on April 12-13, 2023 (http://www.avsensorsexpo.com).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Might want to master the basics first?

View attachment 897892

From Silicon Valley? lol.

 

[Ogre]

Average of the mix for the model, not the baseline. So they are assuming some options sold, some Performance models in the mix, etc.

It is oddly specific which gives the impression of precision and meaning to that particular value.

If they meant it to be representative of the general case they should have given a round number or said outright its an average… as it is we’re all left wondering.

 

[jerry33]

I'm not an accounting type person so I might be showing off my ignorance, but I don't like the use of gross profit and gross margin. It seems like Net should be the only thing that counts. It's the least fudgeable and the most apples to apples.

It's just the opposite. Gross Margin/Profit only has Cost of Goods sold against it. Net Income has all kind of other items.

 

[bkp_duke]

It is oddly specific which gives the impression of precision and meaning to that particular value.

If they meant it to be representative of the general case they should have given a round number or said outright its an average… as it is we’re all left wondering.

All of their stuff they produce is extremely specific, down to a penny even on their 500+ page reports.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Virginia decides against CATL-Ford battery factory - electrive.com › 2023/01/20

The US state of Virginia is taking itself out of the running for the factory being considered by Ford and CATL to produce LFP battery cells for electric cars. Specifically, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has decided not to subsidise such a project – out of concern for Chinese influence.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's funny how when the stock price is dropping all we talk about is how much that sucks. When the stock price is going up, we talk about everything but the stock.

 

[Hiline]

Is anyone else struggling to find the amount of money available for clean vehicle credit? I've investigated these two documents to no avail:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Guidebook.pdf

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text

Any pointer would be appreciated.

 

[mongo]

Is anyone else struggling to find the amount of money available for clean vehicle credit? I've investigated these two documents to no avail:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Guidebook.pdf

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text

Any pointer would be appreciated.

Search here:

SEC. 13401. CLEAN VEHICLE CREDIT.

(a) <> Per Vehicle Dollar Limitation.--
Section 30D(b) is amended by striking paragraphs (2) and (3) and
inserting the following:
``(2) Critical minerals.--In the case of a vehicle with
respect to which the requirement described in subsection
(e)(1)(A) is satisfied, the amount determined under this
paragraph is $3,750.
``(3) Battery components.--In the case of a vehicle with
respect to which the requirement described in subsection
(e)(2)(A) is satisfied, the amount determined under this
paragraph is $3,750.''.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

It's just the opposite. Gross Margin/Profit only has Cost of Goods sold against it. Net Income has all kind of other items.

That's my exact understanding. I want to know how much profit there is after everything is accounted for.

 

[jabloomf1230]

WSJ has an article quoting legal experts as saying that Elon Musk should be investigated by the SEC for insider trading, related to his December 2022 stock sale without his disclosing missed sales estimates:

Elon Musk Sold Tesla Shares Before Company Acknowledged Weakness

The timing of the CEO’s sale of nearly $3.6 billion in stock last month raises a crucial question: Did he know that business had slowed when he sold his shares?

www.wsj.com

In case you don't have WSJ, here's a non-paywalled summary:

Musk's Tesla Stock Sale May Trigger Trading Probe

Legal experts say December's stock sale amid news of weakening demand for Tesla's cars warrants an SEC investigation.

www.investopedia.com