Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
A lot of 2016 deposit holders outside the USA - they have not had an opportunity to order the $35k SR yet.

Besides, both production volume and margins will continue to improve as time moves on, and as that happens a $35K model 3 becomes more important to Tesla, perhaps even lower prices than that down the track.
Actually many have not yet had the opportunity to buy any Tesla at all other than grey/gray market.
Most of those large potential countries for Model 3 are RHD, but many others with substantial potential have reservations but zero imports available now. Of course I am thinking of Argentina, Brazil and Chile but there are several high potential Eastern European countries with no Tesla sales today, as well as substantial Asian countries. We can readily assume that nearly all of those not presently served do not have such high potential as those now receiving deliveries but...if Tesla share of market vs primary luxury brands holds in those countries there would be annual sales of at >1000 per month for all models in many of them. Not too much, but many of these markets will produce high gross margins despite nearly all of them being mostly cheaper vehicles. For many of them Tesla will appeal very strongly to wealthier internationally savvy buyers, most fo whim have multiple higher end vehicles and/or multiple residences. Just as in Jordan or Russia, for example, enthusiasts can and will play instrumental roles in making that happen for Tesla.

Most useful market data by Model in most of these countries is either behind a paywall or not readily accessible. Thus I'll show data for Brazil for 1st quarter 2019 because i have it and have fairly substantial personal knowledge of importers (gray and authorized), manufacturers and customers.
In most analogous markets brand penetration is more readily available and applicable than is model data mostly because higher end vehicles are exceedingly likely to be in multi-vehicle households. The brand-level data is misleading in most such countries because many models considered entry level in the 'first world' are positioned, priced and equipped as entry-level-luxury vehicles in these countries. Common examples are Toyota Corolla, Ford Fusion, Honda Civic sedan as well as the majority of smaller SUV such as Toyota RAV-4 etc.

Tesla has already shown how easily they can penetrate 20-40 year-old tech-savvy well-educated people. Globally these people are prime buyers of everything from smartphones (ok, anybody who buys an iPhone or Samsung tends to fit the category. They often don't appear as major forces in less wealthy markets but they're easily observed. So, most market-data-trained people lose this market entirely because they travel internationally and tend to buy personal imports more frequently than in their local markets. Cars, though, are most often bought locally.

So, Brazil auto data 1st quarter 2019:
Focus2move| Brazil Vehicles Market - Facts & Data 2019
The total recorded of prime high end brands (MB, BMW, Volvo, Land Rover, Jaguar, Ferrari) is 8965 for 1st quarter, of which 86 were Ferrari.
FWIW, I know two Ferrari owners here, both of whom have many cars, both of whom have grey-market Teslas. One person of whom I know has a Model X , Model S, and Model 3. Why is that relevant? Because those people can readily facilitate the building of infrastructure (they've done it already by putting a handful of Tesla chargers in although none are officially recognized by Tesla. That process is precisely what happened in Russia with The Moscow Tesla Club:
Moscow Tesla Club - продажа и обслуживание автомобилей Tesla в России
It happened in New Zealand until it reached critical mass and Tesla officially entered the country.

Concluding my interminable post I think it highly likely that there are >30 countries that will absorb ~3000 of more Teslas of all models per annum. In aggregate they will absorb at least 100,000 vehicles per year, with a strong shift towards high value models. Of course, key such markets for early penetration are the Arab Gulf and other Middle East countries.
 
man you are really frustrated about being wrong about this "catastrophe", huh?

keep trying to change the subject to save face.

Not at all.

"Catastrophic optics" and FUD-driven-narratives cause long-term damage – isolated days are just what they are; please refer to the ongoing downward trend since December '18.

Lower-than-expected demand could very well be the first symptom of a damaged brand image.

Happy to eat crow if you prove me wrong.
 
wall street will make it so $tsla finishes the day just below 270 for their max profit. so sadly SP not going anywhere today.
upload_2019-4-12_8-6-40.png
 
It occurred to me only today that the ride hailing thing may not be as directly linked to autonomy as people think. The assumption is that we go from 'nothing' to FSD autonomous car ride hailing network with nobody behind the wheel.
Thats a long way off, for 95% regulatory reasons. But lets think about the intermediate years:

DO I buy a toyota prius or a tesla model 3, as an uber driver?

Clearly the model 3, because for maybe 95 to 99% of the time, I just sit there chilling, and looking out the window. Sure.. I need to be able to take over at a moments notice, and have to keep my eyes open and be vaguely alert but.. as anyone who has done a lot of city driving or commuting will know, driving the same journey with/without autopilot 1 makes a huge difference. With/without autopilot 2 or 2.5 is likely even better. With the advancements by next year in self-driving likely to be made by tesla...a MASSIVE difference.

Driving is tiring, especially all day as an uber driver. I bet an uber driver would LOVE a model 3, as they are safer, less tired, and probably able to drive for much longer without needing a break.(meaning MORE money earned). Plus way cheaper fuel.

So given this... will phase one of the tesla ride hailing network still have drivers at all times? Effectively a version of Uber thats just MUCH more popular with drivers?
 
Tesla has specifically excluded commercial use of FSD outside of the Tesla Network. It's in the Master Plan Part Deux.


OK, but then what prevents Uber, which loses money on every ride, from restructuring its commission schedule so that it bifurcates the commission between compensation for the human driver's time (X%) and costs associated with the use, maintenance and wear and tear on the vehicles (100-X%)? So, by way of example, if 65% of the commission were allocated to the driver and 35% to the vehicle, it would only pay the wear and tear component to FSD vehicles.

One way or the other, Uber will be looking to cut the amount of money it pays out of gross ride sharing revenue. Because, you know, its shareholders are going to expect it to generate profits sooner rather than later once it goes public. So I don't think you will be able to count on the same commission structure forever.

Sort of like Tesla restructuring/eliminating commissions for its sales force recently.
 
Not at all.

"Catastrophic optics" and FUD-driven-narratives cause long-term damage – isolated days are just what they are; please refer to the ongoing downward trend since December '18.

Lower-than-expected demand could very well be the first symptom of a damaged brand image.

Happy to eat crow if you prove me wrong.

To take a break from just ribbing you: I’m not sure how you see lack of demand in this. They raised prices on Model 3 almost across the board(everything except performance) and took the lowest priced model off menu entirely.

They added leasing, of course, but that was already promised and expected.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
People do. The market and media do, too.

It's a broken promise and some former Tesla fan/sympathizers feel betrayed be that. On an human level, there's nothing good about that news. Absolutely nothing.

OK, so I actually agree -- my point, which was learned the hard way by not investing in Microsoft and not investing in Apple and not investing in Facebook (and, by contrast, investing in Exxon and in the old AT&T), is that for an investor, it doesn't matter. Even if the company ends up being reviled as the most evil company on the planet because of bad optics, if they still have more demand than they have production, they don't care and it's impossible to make them care, because it doesn't affect the bottom line. I mean, I wish they were looking forward to the day when they had real competition and had less demand than production, but they aren't looking forward to that day, probably because they won't get there for at least five years.
 
Last edited:
To everyone complaining about Tesla supposedly breaking their promise of $35k Model 3.

Did you forget Dieselgate?
VW is doing just fine after multiple rounds of lies to US regulators. The fact they they are still allowed to sell anything in the US is beyond me. Germany can go ahead and keep them on the pedestal but I won't. Sold my rare Porsche at a good premium weeks after the news broke and not buying another VWAG product until they earn it.

Tesla can set any price they find sustainable and I applaud removing all references to 35. On top of that, today's Model 3 is a much better value compared to $35k Model 3 shown in 2016.
 
OT (Uber)

And finally if you want to feel much better about the long term value of TSLA then please read Uber's IPO prospectus. It's an absolute riot:
  • EBITDA of negative $3.5bn,
  • normalised negative Free Cashflow of more than $5bn
  • a book value for normal equity holders of negative $7bn.
  • Even two thirds of the preferred stock value of $14bn can be attributed to the Didi and Grab investments.
And yet I'm reading of an IPO target valuation of $100bn.
S-1

Not to mention that they have a horrendous reputation for covering up rapes and hiding from cops and sexual harassment in the offices and so forth; that they have a well-funded direct competitor in all their markets (Lyft) who does *not* have the same reputation; that they've already lost the entire Chinese market (and even sold their attempt to compete to the Chinese competitor); that they're being investigated for wage theft, which they appear to be very guilty of; and that despite wage theft, underpaying their drivers, and using price-gouging "surge pricing", they STILL don't appear to have a business model which actually makes any money....

...if Uber succeeds it'll be like Google or Amazon in that they'll make all their money off some side project (I have heard Uber Eats mentioned), because their main business is inherently unprofitable and unsustainable.
 
So.

1. Panasonic said in an emailed statement that they have established a 35GWh/year cell capacity by end of March 2019 as reported by Reuters Tesla, Panasonic to seek productivity gains before new battery investments
2. Tesla said demand for cells is outpacing supply Tesla disputes report saying carmaker is freezing spending on $4.5 billion Gigafactory
3. Current cell demand from Tesla can't be more than 25GWh on a yearly basis (this is extremely generous, it's more likely close to 20GWh)

So. Who is lying? Panasonic or Tesla?
Neither. #3 is the incorrect statement here. Tesla has obvious plans to use more cell capacity, including whoever they're contracting with for the Shanghai gigafactory.
 
To take a break from just ribbing you: I’m not sure how you see lack of demand in this.

Thank you.

Well, it's just my subjective interpretation: Why else would they pull SR+ 6 months forward – esp. in the EU and China – if they had a full backlog?

They raised prices on Model 3 almost across the board(everything except performance) and took the lowest priced model off menu entirely.

Well, that's just what you do in a finite "luxury" market: You up the price to compensate for declining demand. It's what's going on in tech and phones for a decade now.

They added leasing, of course, but that was already promised and expected.

Leasing – on this forum here – was always deemed as *the* strongest lever to increase M3 demand. If that's not a sign of decreasing demand, I don't know what is. And that's by the bulls' very own logic.
 
It occurred to me only today that the ride hailing thing may not be as directly linked to autonomy as people think. The assumption is that we go from 'nothing' to FSD autonomous car ride hailing network with nobody behind the wheel.
Thats a long way off, for 95% regulatory reasons. But lets think about the intermediate years:

DO I buy a toyota prius or a tesla model 3, as an uber driver?

Clearly the model 3, because for maybe 95 to 99% of the time, I just sit there chilling, and looking out the window. Sure.. I need to be able to take over at a moments notice, and have to keep my eyes open and be vaguely alert but.. as anyone who has done a lot of city driving or commuting will know, driving the same journey with/without autopilot 1 makes a huge difference. With/without autopilot 2 or 2.5 is likely even better. With the advancements by next year in self-driving likely to be made by tesla...a MASSIVE difference.

Driving is tiring, especially all day as an uber driver. I bet an uber driver would LOVE a model 3, as they are safer, less tired, and probably able to drive for much longer without needing a break.(meaning MORE money earned). Plus way cheaper fuel.

So given this... will phase one of the tesla ride hailing network still have drivers at all times? Effectively a version of Uber thats just MUCH more popular with drivers?
Or the person hailing the Tesla could sit in the drivers seat ready to take over if needed. With proof of a drivers license required, of course. Doesn’t work for all situations, like those drinking, but could be an option. A quick car rental/taxi. Maybe pay extra for a driver?
 
I am afraid you don‘t understand what L2 means...
L2 self driving? I didn't mention this at all so I'm not sure what your post means.
Thank you.

Well, it's just my subjective interpretation: Why else would they pull SR+ 6 months forward – esp. in the EU and China – if they had a full backlog?
The lack of a 35k model 3 was one of the biggest short arguments. That could have been involved.
Or the person hailing the Tesla could sit in the drivers seat ready to take over if needed. With proof of a drivers license required, of course. Doesn’t work for all situations, like those drinking, but could be an option. A quick car rental/taxi. Maybe pay extra for a driver?
When you sign up for your account it would validate your license.

Legally, drinking is still a problem, but realistically it's far less so. Drunk driving isn't ok, but we aren't going to stop being from doing that. I'd rather them in an L3 Tesla mostly self driving than driving on their own. It would still be illegal to be drunk in the passenger seat of one for sure.