Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

Where did Panasonic say this? I keep asking, but nobody ever provides a direct quote.

Panasonic did say in their fiscal Q2 presentation on 10/18/18 that they planned to be at 35 GWh/year in Nevada by 3/31/19. But in the FQ3 presentation they said that was delayed.

Tesla, Panasonic to seek productivity gains before new battery investments - Reuters

“Panasonic established a battery production capacity of 35 GWh in Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 by the end of March 2019 in line with growing demand,” Japan-based Panasonic said in an email.

“Watching the demand situation, Panasonic will study additional investments over 35 GWh in collaboration with Tesla.”

My guess is that Panasonic has 35gWh capacity with its current equipment, but is not producing at a 35gWh runrate, most likely due to cathode supply bottlenecks, but also possibly due to Panasonic production staff bottlenecks. Note the context of the article was Panasonic pauses investing in new equipment, hence it makes sense that Panasonic responded; we already bought equipment that can produce 35gWh, even if they are not currently at that runrate.

 

[bhtooefr]

LR RWD
Removing LR RWD is less sensible I think. There is a big gap now between SR+ and LR AWD and LR RWD is a very different product. In particular I think it would have received many European orders, almost certainly at a higher margin than SR+, if it had been introduced to the menu there.

Looks like the off-menu price is right between the on-menu prices of the trims from what's been mentioned.

So, that's, what, ~54 kWh vs. 78 kWh, plus interior upgrades, for $5000 or $208/kWh?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Google Translate



Sounds like Tesla is negotiating with other manufacturers to join the pool and hence stopped FCA from disclosing.

Funding secured

If you mean Tesla is negotiating with other manufacturers to join the FCA/Tesla pool:

1) I don't think that's their place, FCA is the pool manager and is responsible for paying pool emission penalties. I think THEY get to choose members (and I'm sure they've done the calculations).

2) I don't know why Tesla would WANT anyone else in the pool. My latest model says FCA is so far in the hole (~€2.5B/yr), it would take nearly 280,000 EVs/yr in the pool to get them out.

If you mean Tesla is playing free agent and shopping around for a different pool in subsequent years, maybe but I've tried to model what Tesla participation would mean with other manufactures. Most come out to about the same answer - Tesla could sell more that 200,000 ZEVs/yr at a penalty reduction potential of around €10,000/car. And many of those manufacturers are trying to produce ZEVs (or planning to), so they wouldn't want to encourage successful Tesla competition. Ford and PSA are essentially in the same condition as FCA - way out of compliance, essentially no ZEV prospects. The only outlier is Toyota because they are actually relatively close to compliance.

I think it's more likely that FCA and Tesla are still negotiating the bounty and Tesla is fine-tuning how many exports they can manage.

 

[Pezpunk]

overall, the moves announced in the letter are all smart moves that are good for profitability and long-term vision. the only downside is perceptual -- it's a little bit of a "bad look" to move the SR "off menu", but it doesn't negatively affect demand or revenue. it'll result in some taunting from trolls on social media, but they were going to do that anyway.

i admit i'm a little surprised the market is reacting rationally to it so far.

 

[Opus BC fan]

OT
Wow, Disney has popped.

Someday soon TSLA

 

[Krugerrand]

So how f*cked is the stock price tomorrow?

It’s always best for giving a good impression about ones predictive talents if you wait a minute.

 

[tinm]

Meanwhile, in Model Y-land...

At the Model Y reveal, Elon showed a slide detailing starting prices for the Y. I always figured those numbers would change but with yesterday’s Model 3 reshuffling, now they kind of have to, no?

 

[Krugerrand]

FRA is probably not a great indicator anyway.

Remember last years (July?) "5k per week" announcement? +8% in FRA, US close under -5%.

I’ve no idea if FRA is or isn’t probably anything. What I do know is that unless you can show a greater than 50% disconnect between FRA and NASDAQ, your position and post are at best meaningless.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Meanwhile, in Model Y-land...

At the Model Y reveal, Elon showed a slide detailing starting prices for the Y. I always figured those numbers would change but with yesterday’s Model 3 reshuffling, now they kind of have to, no?

Tesla will honor the prices for deposit holders, that's locked in. Hopefully we'll find out more on Apr 24, but I won't be surprised to learn that the 1st year of production is already sold out.

Price after the launch will be adjusted to market conditions. That's Bidniz as usual.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hey, I'm in IT in the Research Grants area, not sure that Juncker would read my email...

GF4 would resolve this. They need GF4 anyway. I accept that want to use GF3 as the new prototype, but that's going to go quickly and they can already be preparing GF4 now and still take the lessons-learned from GF3.

For those in Europe, do you think having watched China erect GF3 is such a timely manner, thus showing off to the whole world their willingness to embrace not just foreign investment in their country but also the desire to do right by the planet, would motivate any European country and its people to do similar?

Or are all European countries and countrymen/politicians/whathaveyou entirely stuck in red tape, feet dragging, political etc... mud?

 

[Curt Renz]

overall, the moves announced in the letter are all smart moves that are good for profitability and long-term vision. the only downside is perceptual -- it's a little bit of a "bad look" to move the SR "off menu", but it doesn't negatively affect demand or revenue. it'll result in some taunting from trolls on social media, but they were going to do that anyway.

i admit i'm a little surprised the market is reacting rationally to it so far.

Indeed the market is reacting rationally to the announcement today. Those who made reservations three years ago expecting a $35,000 Model 3 had three recent weeks to buy one online with no questions asked. They can still order one for $35,000, if they are willing to first talk with a salesman about possibly adding optional equipment. So Tesla is also acting rationally.

 

[Mobius484]

Warren Buffett: Tesla's Elon Musk has 'room for improvement' as CEO — Yahoo Finance

Can’t wait till Elon sells candy bars. His whole landing rockets and changing the course of the auto industry is in such need of improvement....

 

[Prunesquallor]

For those in Europe, do you think having watched China erect GF3 is such a timely manner, thus showing off to the whole world their willingness to embrace not just foreign investment in their country but also the desire to do right by the planet, would motivate any European country and its people to do similar?

Or are all European countries and countrymen/politicians/whathaveyou entirely stuck in red tape, feet dragging, political etc... mud?

I would add:
"...thus showing off to the whole world their willingness to embrace not just foreign investment and competitor in their country but also the desire to do right by the planet..."

 

[Dangerous Fish]

For those in Europe, do you think having watched China erect GF3 is such a timely manner, thus showing off to the whole world their willingness to embrace not just foreign investment in their country but also the desire to do right by the planet, would motivate any European country and its people to do similar?

Or are all European countries and countrymen/politicians/whathaveyou entirely stuck in red tape, feet dragging, political etc... mud?

Stuck up their own arses more like.

Our politicians are now officially a national disgrace and laughing stock. There is no hope for them and that will be the case for some considerable time I expect.

 

[Krugerrand]

Except that EU - plus other countries not yet open for ordering at all - didn't get the chance to order the base $35k

Also will impact the MY pricing too, no?

Everyone will get the chance at some point. Patience.

 

[DaveT]

This change is similar to the initial introduction of the Model S, which had a 40 kWh variant
that saw so few orders that it was quickly cancelled with those (all?) 40 kWh units actually
sold in reality having a software limited 60 kWh.

It's efficient execution to stop having the overhead of offering variants that very few want to buy.

It’s poor execution to promise a $35k car and not be able to deliver it.

 

[EVNow]

How much could an Uber driver earn if they worked 22hrs a day, 360 days a year?

Multiply by .75, to ensure driverless is cheaper than driven.

That's the earnings potential of a driverless car, in the first year of service.

It gives a ballpark for how much the value of these cars appreciates when nation one legalises autonomous Teslas. Subtract shipping cost to said nation.

$20 x 0.75 = $15.
$15 x 22 = $330
$330 * 360 = $118,800.

Lets say about 75 to 100k to account for charging the car and time spent driving to pick up the customer.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

I’ve no idea if FRA is or isn’t probably anything. What I do know is that unless you can show a greater than 50% disconnect between FRA and NASDAQ, your position and post are at best meaningless.

So what could FRA possible mean? France? Frankenstein? Frankf … ?

Again, on July 3rd, 2018 shortly after Tesla announced they've produced 5k Model 3s, TSLA traded at +~5% in Frankfurt just before the Street opened. At market close, TSLA traded at -6,296%.

And this is just an example. We see wild swings in both direction on a regular basis, as the volume traded in Frankfurt is low. Looking at Frankfurt for any indication where TSLA is heading is indeed, I quote you, meaningless.

 

[Tslynk67]

For those in Europe, do you think having watched China erect GF3 is such a timely manner, thus showing off to the whole world their willingness to embrace not just foreign investment in their country but also the desire to do right by the planet, would motivate any European country and its people to do similar?

Or are all European countries and countrymen/politicians/whathaveyou entirely stuck in red tape, feet dragging, political etc... mud?

We have rules and regulations, whether that causes unreasonable delays in permits or construction I don't know, but you can't just start building a factory where and when you want.

For sure in some cases you see projects under construction 24/7, but it's rare, mostly because workers in the EU are compensated appropriately for unsocial hours - 2x, 3x pay, with time-off in lieu on top of that. This isn't red-tape, feet-dragging or political mud, it's normal in western society.

I'd also hasten to add that several EU countries have made a pitch to Tesla with proposed sites, no doubt with some sweetenersunder the table, but Tesla didn't, to the best of our knowledge, bite yet.

 

[EVNow]

It’s poor execution to promise a $35k car and not be able to deliver it.

It could also mean a reckless promise

Next week we'll see ...

Breaking : Tesla salesman asks customer to do 50 pushups before letting him order base model 3.