Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Everyone will get the chance at some point. Patience.

Me? I don't want no crappy M3SR! Will be an MYP probably, for the wife, when the time comes. She doesn't want a Performance model, of course, but I'll be using it at times and it will be too much of a delta after driving my Roadster II.

 

[scaesare]

So.

1. Panasonic said in an emailed statement that they have established a 35GWh/year cell capacity by end of March 2019 as reported by Reuters Tesla, Panasonic to seek productivity gains before new battery investments
2. Tesla said demand for cells is outpacing supply Tesla disputes report saying carmaker is freezing spending on $4.5 billion Gigafactory
3. Current cell demand from Tesla can't be more than 25GWh on a yearly basis (this is extremely generous, it's more likely close to 20GWh)

So. Who is lying? Panasonic or Tesla?

Please show your math.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

No idea how people here a trying to spin this into a positive news?!

The optics of this whole back paddling again, killing SR, and enabling SR+ overseas without any fanfare is not just bad, it's effing catastrophic.

Good luck, my friends - you'll need it.

Well, you were right, wow, really far in the red.

Wait, I think... is that the right color?

 

[Remus]

We know for a fact that they're either production constrained or delivery constrained for Europe. Plenty of people who don't have their 2016 first-day reservations yet.

There is stuff going on behind the scenes we're not seeing. For some reason Tesla can make more US cars than they can European cars right now. Maybe there's still a bottleneck on Euro-spec parts.


That's true!

I think you absolutely nailed it. This explains all the mixed signal regarding demand. Due to difficulties switching variations they end up having inventory that need to get rid of at the same time many people wait for their car.

And that caused this chaotic price change too as their inventory level for each variation change over time and the customers waiting becomes impatient. They are trying to balance the demand to match the production, but with geological and configurational variations, it's next to impossible.

Tesla is still in production hell.

 

[JRP3]

It’s poor execution to promise a $35k car and not be able to deliver it.

They are delivering it now. What's the problem?

 

[Pezpunk]

So what could FRA possible mean? France? Frankenstein? Frankf … ?

Again, on July 3rd, 2018 shortly after Tesla announced they've produced 5k Model 3s, TSLA traded at +~5% in Frankfurt just before the Street opened. At market close, TSLA traded at -6,296%.

And this is just an example. We see wild swings in both direction on a regular basis, as the volume traded in Frankfurt is low. Looking at Frankfurt for any indication where TSLA is heading is indeed, I quote you, meaningless.

what about the Nasdaq. does that count? because it doesn't seem to care either.

 

[Tslynk67]

SP? I expect it to close around $275 inline with MP.

On Wednesday, it was getting away from them, likely to be in mid 280's by close today. They were very so, so lucky to get that fake Nikkei article that bumped the price down, allowing a gentle rise today as the BS is exposed.

Seriously, what amazingly good fortune for the MM's!

/s

 

[EVNow]

We have rules and regulations, whether that causes unreasonable delays in permits or construction I don't know, but you can't just start building a factory where and when you want.

I think the basic issue would be the time required to do an environmental impact study and issue permits. Could that be years ?

 

[Big Blue 1011]

$20 x 0.75 = $15.
$15 x 22 = $330
$330 * 360 = $118,800.

Lets say about 75 to 100k to account for charging the car and time spent driving to pick up the customer.

Why would Uber pay $75k to $100k per year to someone who owns a FSD car, when it could purchase the car itself for $60k and capture all of the incremental revenue for itself?

 

[Todd Burch]

Warren Buffett: Tesla's Elon Musk has 'room for improvement' as CEO — Yahoo Finance

Can’t wait till Elon sells candy bars. His whole landing rockets and changing the course of the auto industry is in such need of improvement....

I was thinking the same thing. Buffett is a great person and a great investor, but he's done nothing even remotely as difficult as Musk. He's not really in a position to offer advice.

 

[Curt Renz]

It’s poor execution to promise a $35k car and not be able to deliver it.

Tesla blog - today: An Update to Our Vehicle Lineup

As a result, Model 3 Standard will now be a software-limited version of the Standard Plus, and we are taking it off the online ordering menu, which just means that to get it, customers will need to call us or visit any one of the several hundred Tesla stores.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

$20 x 0.75 = $15.
$15 x 22 = $330
$330 * 360 = $118,800.

Lets say about 75 to 100k to account for charging the car and time spent driving to pick up the customer.

All this for a car Tesla is effectively paying $10k for(assuming 20% margin on black SR+ with 10k mile annual lease).

 

[Pezpunk]

man you are really frustrated about being wrong about this "catastrophe", huh?

keep trying to change the subject to save face.

 

[Unpilot]

Hello MMD nice to see you again /S

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

One thing I don't understand is it seems the mission statement for the company and autonomous driving are getting in the way of each other. The point is to switch to EVs ASAP, but they are not promoting the cheapest available option and have increased prices again. So will they produce hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Model 3s with FSD in 3 years for their Tesla Network to off set the actual purchase of an EV? I'm confused on what they are promoting now....I guess FSD is the long game they think they can beat in a short time....

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, Tesla can not do it alone.
Selling 500k Model 3s vs 300k in a year makes no fundamental differences to the whole world all while almost 80-90 million cars are sold annually.
Tesla's goal is to push other automakers to make EVs, and I think we can all agree that Tesla has done it.

 

[Nocturnal]

The note about Tesla not allowing buyback of leases is interesting. There are two options.

1. That's just fluff to push fence sitters to buy rather than lease or attempting to pump up the ride hailing.
2. They are serious about ride hailing and really do want those already depreciated, gently used vehicles for their network.

#1 seems less likely.

I was thinking the same thing. Buffett is a great person and a great investor, but he's done nothing even remotely as difficult as Musk. He's not really in a position to offer advice.

Buffet is quite good at what he does, and is very quick to admit that his skills would be worthless had he been born elsewhere or in another time.

Elon could definitely improve as a CEO. Can't they all? He has surely been careless with his communications in the past.

 

[electronblue]

(I am not quite sure how anyone can be sure that in three years the legislation will allow for autonomous ride hailing)

There is the theory of a Level 2 Tesla Network which would not require legislation changes. It might be out there as an idea but it is not completely silly I think:

Here's How Tesla will launch the 'Tesla Network' as L2 ADAS!

 

[Nocturnal]

There is the theory of a Level 2 Tesla Network which would not require legislation changes. It might be out there as an idea but it is not completely silly I think:

Here's How Tesla will launch the 'Tesla Network' as L2 ADAS!

They could also have a program that allows Tesla owners to share their cars this way, with Tesla getting a cut. Why let your car sit in the garage all day when it could be working for you?

 

[Pras]

All this for a car Tesla is effectively paying $10k for(assuming 20% margin on black SR+ with 10k mile annual lease).

The other way to think is an avg Uber driver earns $10/hr net after all the expense (maintenance, insurance etc). Tesla can pass $3 to customer to gain share. Say a car can runs on average 10 hrs (remember traffic demand varies by hours). This is then $7*10*365 = $25k/year in PBT. Add to this the margin Uber earns, it will come around 30-35k per year. Huge business! If 10k robo cabs, it means 300m in PBT, if 100k robo cabs, it is $3b in PBT (translating at least $50B to valuation). In long run, if indeed self driving is a reality, they can have up to a million cabs (so $500b is possible)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why would Uber pay $75k to $100k per year to someone who owns a FSD car, when it could purchase the car itself for $60k and capture all of the incremental revenue for itself?

Tesla has specifically excluded commercial use of FSD outside of the Tesla Network. It's in the Master Plan Part Deux.