Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Snerruc]

Generally agree, but I think being a holder or a trader is not a black/white situation, but a spectrum. I think very few people hold forever.
So when you do sell it is about timing.

Hypothetic situation: Already retired on TSLA, living on stock sales. Sell approximately once a year, live on the cash. You want to do the sale when TSLA is high, so info like the above where duration of market downturn after FED rate drop is in the order of a year is helpful. This is not like day trading where I think in the long run you´ll lose (too much statistical noise), but still about timing (ideally based on long term info like economic cycles that are actually possible to get right).

Trying to assess if the above plot contains such info.

I don’t understand why there is such a resistance to dividend paying stocks, especially when retired. For me they supply my income and sufficient surplus to buy more as time goes by. I’ve lived off of dividends and tax free munies since 1987. I’ve never had a need to sell an investment asset for living expenses, and this is desirable as your mental acuity declines with age. There comes a time in most people’s life when this is important. Doesn’t mean I didn’t buy Tesla, but it does mean it isn’t part of my hard rations I depend on to live.

 

[Max Plaid]

You sure about that? We only have 20Kish insurance signups.

Reuters article says "China sales", TBH it's always a confusing mess...

 

[Max Plaid]

Futures dropped sharply on both sp500 and nasdaq100. Tesla went from 192 to 185, so I guess the marked did not like the numbers.

Good excuse for the bears to jump-in and try to spook everyone, OPEX Friday and lots of calls ITM after the strong markets this week. High employment, falling inflation, stable wages - this is a dream scenario IMO

 

[Artful Dodger]

When I wanted to go anywhere in a hurry or for 'fun', I took the Saab every time as I could just crash into the roadside

So, ur saying "Cyaabtruk Mini"?

 

[Singuy]

Good excuse for the bears to jump-in and try to spook everyone, OPEX Friday and lots of calls ITM after the strong markets this week. High employment, falling inflation, stable wages - this is a dream scenario IMO

That's why this is unpredictable. The fed doesn't really want to destroy jobs. They just want to destroy inflation. The recession fear is that jobs will collapse which will destroy earnings. So why anyone on WS would want jobs to collapse is anyone's guess. Just because the fed CAN have more runway to spike rates due to jobs being strong doesn't mean they would. Also it's false to think the feds would stop increasing rates if job collapse while inflation can't be controlled.

 

[madodel]

CNBC Jim Cramer, "We're not going to see a Super Bowl commercial for Tesla". He's got that right.

 

[ggies07]

CNBC Jim Cramer, "We're not going to see a Super Bowl commercial for Tesla". He's got that right.

Tesla IS the Super Bowl....boom!

 

[AndrewZ]

If inflation is coming down and jobs are intact, sounds like marshmallow soft landing to me.

Honestly with the rise of globalization, interest rates has less to do with inflation vs the 1980s. It's all about global production where supply and competition keeps inflation in check.

Disinflation needs to be coupled with a loosening labour market, tight labour conditions are what led to lessons learned during The Great Inflation.

If they let off the brake in these conditions, the rate of inflation would likely shoot up to new highs

 

[unk45]

All very pertinent points.

I don't think tiny roads for driving are the issue per se. However parking is a very real problem.

My house is in a typical European town/city street with on-street parking, specifically southern UK terraced townhouses. I note my house because it is precisely an average UK house. I've previously noted the parking constraint that affects many such locations around the world, and I've oft made the point that the Golf is an optimal size for daily usage in such parking situations whilst still being a perfectly adequate family car.

In contrast my GF lives out of town in farming country, accessed down very picturesque country lanes, tall hedges, earth banks and walls, etc. The sort that are about 3m wide if you are lucky at the pinch points, and ordinarily 4m wide. The school bus is 2.5m wide and it has to go specific routes to fit around the corners and through the bendy bits. All over Europe a lot of country roads tend to have similar characteristics.

Yet even so out here in GF-country the rich farmers and their spouses quite happily drive Range Rovers and various friends do visit occasionally in their Tesla S. All manage to navigate the lanes. Clearly the paintwork suffers as one drives by touch, positioning to hear the brambles and hazel on the wing mirrors so as to get two cars past each other without slowing down too much. Parking in GF-country really isn't an issue, even the smallest farm cottage has a driveway (actually that is an exageration). But rural village parking can be just as tough a problem as inner-city. If you look at the local private schools the school run is increasingly mixing in Tesla S, X, and Y alongside the Range Rovers (fees tend to be in the GBP 30-50k/yr to keep the poor folk out and safely away from the little darlings).

The GF's lodgers have been known to sell their Mercedes saloons or Passat saloons and buy Golfs and Clios, but that is due to them having poor driving skills on these country roads. (I am absolutely serious). But locals in the countryside are quite happy to drive the big stuff if they are rich enough, because there is not a parking size constraint in the countryside.

Tesla S : L x W x H: 4970 x 1964 x 1445 mm

Range Rover : L x W x H: 5252 x 1990 x 1870 mm

i.e. not much difference, with the X of course being taller like the Range Rover.

Cost and affordability is of course also a very real issue as you rightly point out. For that reason around the GF's countryside the landowners drive the Range Rover, the farmworkers drive econoboxes (Golfs, Clios, etc) but not pickups. Only very few folk have a 'American-style' pickup and that is typically a Ford Ranger or old-style Toyota Hilux, not the crew cab version - and that is definitely for sheep and tools, but there are very few of these. And the rural commuters drive estates or smaller SUVs/CUVs or econoboxes depending on lifestyle and suchlike. And the mobile tradesfolk (carpenters, electricians, plumbers) drive white vans (Ford Transit etc) and definitely not a pick-up.

I've looked for rural/suburban/urban population distribution statistics for UK, which I think is probably fairly typical of Europe as a whole. I can't find a good single source as suburban seems to get conflated into urban in a lot of datasets. Best I can do is this approximation by SWAGing various sources, which in turn gives an insight into how widespread the predominantly urban parking constraint issue is:

- 17% rural population (of whom perhaps just under a quarter commute to work in a city and so are often exposed to parking constraints near the workplace)
- 55% suburban population (much less parking constraints historically, tended to be off-street parking)
- 28% urban population (these very often have parking constraints)

Hope that helps.

Mostly I agree with your comments. From past working/living in multiple European countries as well as England the parking issue is always one major constraint. Any BEV solved congestion charges and ICE prohibited zones but not the parking issue. On narrow roads in rural areas it seems there are issues almost everywhere, but manageable usually. (it is inconvenient to need to reverse from time to time on narrow roads, curves and switchbacks abound.

It is clear that many wealthy people who have rural dwellings do use very large vehicles, and even improbable ones (e.g. Chelsea tractor). However, the scale is a real problem.

In all our debates here the master issue is always the potential addressable market for a Tesla vehicle somewhere around the Golf/Corolla/Peugeot 208 sizes. As we all probably know that range covers a wide variety of sized and widths, and includes the largest sellers in many markets.

The repetitive debates we have all repeat three themes:
1. Size outside and inside (FWIW check out a Mitsubishi i-MIEV to see giant inside with tiny outside);
2. Price (Cheap! vs Pocket Rocket), including both sales price and production cost;
3. Efficiency (small more efficient vs larger better aerodynamics).

For everyone who offers doubt that this makes is probable anytime soon I ask one question:
Do you really think Tesla is incapable to optimizing the motive and minimizing the negative?
For those who thin this is an obvious near term choice I ask one question?
Do you really think Tesla has solved the battery availability problem in supply and price well enough to make a smaller car/truck/van work?

From all my posts on this subject my opinion is clear. in 2024 we will probably see between 2.5 million and 3.0 million Tesla vehicles produced.

Chances are good that producing a smaller platform can be done using a single casting, and a structural pack that drops in. The designs have been floating around as the promised designed in China model. Will that be a topic on March 1? Concepts were presented as early as 2018, as recruiting devices.

Something along these lines will be part of the nest GF, if not sooner. Only my opinion, of course. I have no crystal ball.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Don't you guys have anything else to do than to watch the stock every minute, when you are purportedly invested for the long haul (i.e., years)? Get a grip. You have identified and invested in a generational investment. Let it happen and find something else to do.

Valid point. Yes, I have plenty to do. But I have Addictive Behavior Syndrome (ABS) and still trade ~2-3% for a cheap thrill. My brain remembers only rewards (see my footnote). Very selective! But there's always a problem (media, price, FUD), so I have to solve it (Engineers here, many). So my curious side kicks in (either out of fear or excitement), and here we are. Plus, many have said that a dead man has the best record growth on wall street, but who wants to be dead?

Meanwhile, many here believe they will find a new purpose and help the cause. So it's a bonus cause and a responsibility... we actually did some damage out there to the planet. Helping this along is rewarding in itself.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Competition for Tesla Solar and Tesla vehicles (indirectly on the last part).

IQ8 microinverters are the core of the charger and it is compatible with CCS or Chademo.

If Tesla doesn't respond with a bidirectional option it will be a draw away from the Tesla ecosystem.

Enphase Bidirectional EV Charger | Enphase

enphase.com

New video and White Paper listed on the site.

Doesn’t that EVSE require the car systems to allow energy to be drawn out of the car? Not many cars allow this.

 

[CHGolferJim]

FYI, I've decided to mainly use Twitter for the foreseeable future vs using this thread and @adiggs "be the house" thread, largely due to trolls and other difficult posters. I've had to ignore so many that it hurts.

I'll come here from time to time, but it is just not the place that makes me feel more informed and well rounded moreso than my Twitter feed.

Thank you for so much discord over the years and I wish all well!

What is your Twitter handle? (there are a bunch of variations)

 

[Yippydog]

I'm not sure Tesla's strategy is always aligned with its official mission (bitcoin, robots…). Remember Google's motto was "don't be evil" until it wasn't (profits > ethics), even though its co-founders still had full control over the company.

Anybody pay attention to how lavish praise was given to employees for this years success? Or how Tesla in there mission wants to be the best at manufacturing and driving out cost to max profit? I think these cost reductions are also about motivating Tesla to exactly as E is saying. Drive the cost down, sells more cars, puts more EV in the hands of people who want them, more growth, cleaner planet, mission accomplished

 

[Singuy]

Disinflation needs to be coupled with a loosening labour market, tight labour conditions are what led to lessons learned during The Great Inflation.

If they let off the brake in these conditions, the rate of inflation would likely shoot up to new highs

I am saying the times have changed. The great inflation happened due to a lack of supply domestically due to high unemployment. The scary stagflation. Today production is highly automated and labour comes from all over the world. Inflation this time was caused by a halt of globalization due to covid, which will go away naturally with or without rate increases. It has always been transitory, just took China, the world's greatest producer of goods, 2 freaken years to fully open up.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey, what's up? Just sittin around watchin the SP.
Ho-hum... why bother? /s

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah, looks like it's going to be another one of those days, huh?

 

[Nocturnal]

I am saying the times have changed. The great inflation happened due to a lack of supply domestically due to high unemployment. The scary stagflation. Today production is highly automated and labour comes from all over the world. Inflation this time was caused by a halt of globalization due to covid, which will go away naturally with or without rate increases. It has always been transitory, just took China, the world's greatest producer of goods, 2 freaken years to fully open up.

Worth noting too that a wage spiral is the primary fear. Strong labor isn't an issue if wages are mostly flat. FED has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability after all.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'd love a model 3, but one day in my dreams when I do get one, I am wondering quite how the paintwork - and resale value - is going to respond to that sort of behavior.

There's a way.

 

[Papafox]

Wow, TSLA up 3.4% 19 minutes after market open. Could investors in Apple and Alphabet be moving money to TSLA as a mega stock safe haven?
TSLA shorties have to be in a foul mood this am.

 

[Singuy]

Worth noting too that a wage spiral is the primary fear. Strong labor isn't an issue if wages are mostly flat. FED has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability after all.

There's generally higher participation today vs 2021 when it was hard to find workers therefore caused wage to jump. Guess all them people who yoloed on BTC and options are now back on the streets hustling again.

I have posted before that in late 2022, we had over 150 applicants for one entry level position while only got about 15 in 2021.