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MYLR not avail able with 7 seats and doesn't qualify.
I've been advocating this type of MY price cut for the purpose of breaking the IRA. My question now is, does this break the IRA?
With all I mentioned earlier, I forgot the biggest thing that helps reduce Tesla’s margin decreases in the US with these price changes: the IRA tax credit for battery module and cell manufacturing.
It’s actually possible, with all these changes, that passing that on to the consumer as part of these cuts we will see only a few percentage points in margin drop while we see a massive increase in volume and demand.
Many here (myself included) were forgetting the IRA for battery pack/cell manufacturing, something which contributed $0 to margins in all past quarters.
I have a hunch the IRA was written to exclude Tesla mainly because the government didn't want to shell out all that money for rebates on Tesla's huge sales volume compared to other EV manufacturers.
NOW, they will have to pay those rebates anyway!
I don't know if that "breaks" the IRA, but I'm betting the people who wrote the IRA bill are now slapping their heads wondering how they can amend it to once again exclude Tesla....
Finally the website mentions the $7500 tax credit although I am puzzled why they dont mention it in the potential savings popup. Still it is there and now people that dont follow legislation and looking at a Model 3 or Model Y will see it. I am surprised by the amount of some of the cuts. Weird to me that the Model Y was lowered to $52,990 rather than $54,990. I guess it allows people to pick a color and still be under the $55K cap.
This is going to put a load of hurt on competitors.
Notice the specific language on the web page that "this may be reduced after March 2023"? That's likely due to the materials sourcing requirements for the LFP battery in SR+ so get'em while there're hot! Still, and $3,750 to price afterward and it's still a great deal (until Tesla can switch battery sourcing to qualify).
What a mess they made of this bill. The amount of overhead that will be required to track every manufacturer and decide "ok car produced on X date qualifies, but X plus 2 days doesn't, but X date + 60 days does qualify because of a material switch" will be massive.
If this is true, and I suspect it is at least in part, then the "actual" price drop is small enough that the battery credit from the IRA will make up for pretty much all of it.
4D chess move there.
Seems all Model Y now qualify under the $80000 MSRP for the tax credit. No more 5 or 7 seats difference:
Credits for new clean vehicles purchased in 2023 or after | Internal Revenue Service
You may qualify for a clean vehicle tax credit up to $7,500 if you buy a new, qualified plug-in electric vehicle or fuel cell electric vehicle.www.irs.gov
Same for other OEM it seems ( I only checked Ford for the Mach-e):
Edited to add the link: Manufacturers and Models for New Qualified Clean Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After | Internal Revenue Service
Tesla can now raise the prices of all MY up to $80K and still qualify for the $7500 IRA, as per Biden’s new approval to the proposed change To the definition of a SUV.
I have to wonder if Tesla's price war forced their hand on this? Too many non-Tesla SUV EV's were going to get crushed under the MY5.
I also wonder if Tesla will simply keep their new prices, thereby keeping the pressure on other OEM's anyway?
I find it hilarious they changed it to include the 5 seat Model Y because the plan of locking out Tesla's best selling vehicle completly backfired on them when Tesla slashed their prices.
If Tesla starts raising prices in response to the new rule, expect a repeat of early 2022 when everyone scrambles to buy a Tesla for fear of further price increases.
So officially US clean vehicle credits are now going to match Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) fuel economy definitions of "SUV". This is what I had originally predicted based on the verbiage in the law that required:
Here is an update to the tax credit FAQ released by the government today. Note they specifically mention "certain variants of the 2022 and 2023 Tesla Model Y" gaining eligibility retroactively.
This change simplifies things for the consumer too because now there are identical definitions shared by the IRS and EPA. This will be especially helpful for other car companies with inventory on dealership lots, because the EPA window stickers indicate the EPA classification. For example, the ID.4's sticker says it's a "Small SUV":
View attachment 902899
The IRS does not have the authority to just unilaterally decide to cut credits in half or eliminate them altogether. They have to execute the law. There is room for interpretation in the law's language but they're still fundamentally constrained by what Congress passed and the President signed.
I’m just wondering how this all play out.
Biden signs the bill, then the administration and the treasury start sketching out the numbers and realize Tesla is the biggest beneficiary so they write the bill so few Teslas qualify.
Then Tesla rewrites the automotive retail handbook and changes their prices so a huge number of Teslas qualify but none of their competitors do.
So now Tesla benefits even more than when the original bill was written. GM lobbyists start banging on legislators doors and demanding their lobbying money back so the administration calls the treasury and the policy gets rewritten to include more cars.
I think as 4680 Model Y production keeps increasing, Tesla will slowly creep the Model Y LR prices back up. Those 4680 Model Ys are in theory Tesla’s biggest money maker so Tesla is going to want that to be the bigger demand driver. Now that the goofy $55k limit is lifted, Tesla has a bit more flexibility on pricing the LR.
I wonder when the Model 3 LR AWD is coming back - maybe after the rumored refresh supposedly around the corner?
I think the problem is that they DO use those materials to build their own batteries, but they put them in EV cars which they ship to the USA, thus negating some or all of the IRA incentives, even for cars which may have been CKD, then rebuilt or final assembly in the USA. So, that is what has made the EU OEM’s at least a bit testy.Shouldn't EU be using these minerals to build their own batteries?
Not that I'm complaining.
Seems to be minerals only. ie. minerals shipped to USA for final assembly. EU will probably win that one. Final assembly equivalence would be separate and I would think a long shot.I think the problem is that they DO use those materials to build their own batteries, but they put them in EV cars which they ship to the USA, thus negating some or all of the IRA incentives, even for cars which may have been CKD, then rebuilt or final assembly in the USA. So, that is what has made the EU OEM’s at least a bit testy.
Seems to be minerals only. ie. minerals shipped to USA for final assembly. EU will probably win that one. Final assembly equivalence would be separate and I would think a long shot.
EU pushes against 'Made in USA' rule for EV support
Yes, we would expect that due to the U.S. Treasury Dept. announcing IRA rebates in mid-Dec 2022, which shifted demand from 22'Q4 into 23'Q1.
Now it remains to be seen if Treasury will pull a similar stunt on the final day of Q1, and announce that (SURPRISE!) 'as of tomorrow, no more China LFP gets the $3750).
Personally, I think this is one of the reasons Elon went to Washington, D.C. back in January. After the Treasury stunt at the end of last Quarter, Elon had the opportunity to make public Supercharger Access a reality with Magic Dock, and (I hope) he told them the roll-out would continue s-l-o-w-l-y if Treasury tries to jerk the rug out from under 3SR/LFP sales.
All Tesla needs is reasonable notice to make the changes to their logistics, and to notify their suppliers. Each already has the technology to resume building std rge packs in N. America (that's what Model 3SR+ had when 1st introduced in Q2019), and the IRA bty benefits together with lower shipping costs vs MiC LFP make the retail margins comparable to before any such IRA restriction.
So Tesla just needs reasonable notice. Tomorrow, we'll find out if this Administration will be reasonable in dealing w. Tesla (we already know what hedgies will do).
Cheers if they do; Jeers if they don't!
Good point, Tesla will have to respond by increasing price of all the other models.
I was apparently overly pessimistic, Tesla has updated the web site to clearly call out 1/2 credit on RWD Model 3s.
View attachment 925807
Also, S3X prices down a bit more. $1000 on the 3 and about 5% on the S/X. So the loss of the rebate only increases the 3 cost by $2,750