Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Turns out Baron has sold some Tesla shares in the past. From the recent letter:

"Tesla’s share price reached over $400 per share in late 2021. Since its stock had increased so dramatically over the preceding two-year period, it had become a very large percentage of assets in two of our mutual funds and several managed accounts. To reduce the single stock risk of those two funds and other accounts, we sold 6.8 million shares from 2020-2022, about 25% of our shares. Our average selling price was $221.56 per share.

We continue to hold 17.6 million shares of Tesla’s stock, which is valued at about $3.1 billion at the time we are writing this letter."

 
so those interested in TSLL, it is not a bad product although it is likely to underperform severely in a bear market and underperform in sideways market.
it is a reasonably 150% leveraged product with advantages similar to TQQQ except TQQQ is 3X qqq whereas TSLL 1.5X TSLA on a daily basis
due to daily reset over long periods of time actual performance may diverge from TSLA significantly
as for me, i prefer straight margin
now in straight margin, if wrong i can lose it all and even go negative and deal with margin calls etc
TSLL do not have to worry about margin call
currently 176% margined on TSLA- very risky if it goes against me
did successfully increase my TSLA position yesterday and earlier today just before TSLA took off, so i got super lucky
made very short term trades, maybe lasting 10 minutes tops so i did not risk losing my TSLA position overall and by sheer chance i was able to increase my share count. whew! dodged a bullet
in my opinion, most individuals should stay away from margin and call options- too easy to lose it all
have been trading TSLA on margin since January 2014 and man, what a ride it has been
no need to go into details of my travails and misadventures as a leveraged trader- why tempt fate
all is well that ends well
none of this is any kind of promotion or any kind of investment advice, just my personal opinion as an individual trader/investor
(someday, once i hit the big B, might decide to write a book, not for money or fame but just to document the extreme thrill ride : otherwise RIP)
I put $25k into TSLL in a tax free account at the end of October last year. Oops. Went to $9k but is now over $20k again. I think it will work out well, for an experiment. But I don’t think I’ll hold it long term. Maybe through the next big rally…hoping.
 
Former Tesla CEO shares his thoughts on the company

Does any reasonable evaluation reach any other conclusion than Tesla would have folded before delivering even the Roadster had he stayed in charge?
 
Turns out Baron has sold some Tesla shares in the past. From the recent letter:

"Tesla’s share price reached over $400 per share in late 2021. Since its stock had increased so dramatically over the preceding two-year period, it had become a very large percentage of assets in two of our mutual funds and several managed accounts. To reduce the single stock risk of those two funds and other accounts, we sold 6.8 million shares from 2020-2022, about 25% of our shares. Our average selling price was $221.56 per share.

We continue to hold 17.6 million shares of Tesla’s stock, which is valued at about $3.1 billion at the time we are writing this letter."


Baron funds’ ownership of TSLA and SpaceX summarized in the attachment.
 

Attachments

  • 63BC7A1F-5B7B-47BE-A2E2-E453CB19AB5B.jpeg
    63BC7A1F-5B7B-47BE-A2E2-E453CB19AB5B.jpeg
    158.1 KB · Views: 106
That’s exactly what the market seems to be expecting when you look at SPY.
All the bears who were expecting another leg down are getting humbled by a forward looking market expecting things to improve in the next 6 months it seems.

Has someone here traveled to the BRK annual meeting to tell a Charlie Munger he is wrong about TSLA?
They are talking their book. No way Warren would last so long on a diet of candies and cherry coke :)
 
Does any reasonable evaluation reach any other conclusion than Tesla would have folded before delivering even the Roadster had he stayed in charge?
I'm pretty sure it would have delivered the Roadster. Then he would have sold the company to the highest bidder and moved on. That's been Eberhard's MO as a serial entrepreneur since he first started doing it -- come up with an idea. build it to the first delivery. sell.

In pretty much all cases, the company that bought it didn't know how to get to the next level, so it died. Even the Rocket e-book, which pretty much created the e-reader market died once it got bought by Gemstar.
To me, that's been Musk's huge contribution -- that he had a vision beyond that first delivery and was willing to push it to that vision.
 
Used to listen to them. Ironically they were the ones who introduced me to Musk back in the days by praising him for have succeeded in creating so many companies like Paypal, Tesla, and SpaceX. Very pro Elon, until now. I am not even sure what happened but Futurism on FB pushes anti-Musk crap all day. Same with the Verge, Gizmodo, and even popular mechanics. Lots of tech sites online became trashy tabloids by crapping on Elon's every tweet of no important relevance.
All predominantly left leaning sites with lefty audiences that tolerate no alternative viewpoints. Elon is "Rocket Man Bad" now.
 
Does any reasonable evaluation reach any other conclusion than Tesla would have folded before delivering even the Roadster had he stayed in charge?
Martin could be the CEO of Rivian and Lucid and be perfectly acceptable. His problem was building a roadster that cost more than what they charged...aka a negative gross margin but just slightly so. Elon saw that as a deal breaker and fired him, and then turned a negative gm roadster to a positive one, mostly by raising the price on pre order holders.

Actually lucid and rivian wish they had a ceo like Martin so their gross margins wouldn't be -250% negative.
 
They recalled 362,758 cars in the United States that had access to FSD Beta.

Since I believe FSD Beta is only available for fully-paid FSD purchasers, that may be the right number or close to it. (At the very least, it may represent the outer-bound.)

Does that make sense? Anyone have any thoughts?

Previously Tesla said 285K purchased FSD and can request for the beta. And since employees get beta for free, they are part of the 362,758 that can have access but not part of the 285K that purchased. The remaining are customers who purchased FSD between December 29 and February 16.

 
Last edited:
They are talking their book. No way Warren would last so long on a diet of candies and cherry coke :)

From Forbes: Buffett eats like a kindergartener whose parents are away. He downs three cans of Coke before leaving for work. For breakfast, he may have a bowl of ice cream, or Utz potato chips. Buffett's logic? "I checked the actuarial tables, and the lowest death rate is among 6-year-olds, so I decided to eat like a 6-year-old. It's the safest course I can take."
 
How did Omar make that long drive on FSD without his hands on the wheel? If I try that the car will blue-screen then yell at me then cut out. What gives?
I'm on 2022.44.30.10
His left knee, he sometimes raises it up to give resistance to the wheel.
I don't recommend this, but studied it over many of his drives.
 
So... Tesla releases an OTA upgrade/update in mid-April that addresses and "corrects" the anomalies pointed out by the NHTSA. If Tesla "fixes" them to their satisfaction, then what will the NHTSA do? Apologize? Come out with an endorsement of AP and FSD? Nothing? I mean looking at the 4 main problems, they seem trivial (except for perhaps the lane change issue) and easily modified by Tesla. Are there any analogies for actions taken by NHTSA when other "recalls" have fixed similar issues?

Any input will be appreciated!
 
Former Tesla CEO shares his thoughts on the company

I respect Eberhard - his openness in the early days was something that drew me to Tesla. He seemed like a good guy to boot. He was the early face of Tesla for sure.

One of the conflicts that was not mentioned in the article was the conflict around hybrid vs EV. My memory may be off, but I think Martin was pushing for compromise to get quicker mainstream acceptance and offer a hybrid option, and Elon (and the board?) put his foot down and insisted that Tesla must be 100% EV only. That may be the first that I remember Elon coming into the picture as a leader. As much as I respect and admire Eberhard as a person, I'm grateful that Elon won that argument - he took Tesla farther than Eberhard would have. But please correct me if I'm wrong - it's many years ago!

The two personalities are so different, it's no wonder they couldn't work together (though it sounds like Eberhard has a hard time with the politics required to work with big egos in the auto industry in general)... My job involves helping people understand disparate personalities using a cognitive function model - I see this a lot in both businesses and families. A lot of conflict could be managed more and be less destructive (even very constructive) if we understood specifically how others uniquely perceive the world and gather data, and how we use different criteria in decision-making.

I wish Eberhard all the best, and he's probably better off not getting sucked into sugar by media that just wants to use him as clickbait. (But I think it's also meaningful for people not to forget his contributions, so I hardly blame him).
 
So... Tesla releases an OTA upgrade/update in mid-April that addresses and "corrects" the anomalies pointed out by the NHTSA. If Tesla "fixes" them to their satisfaction, then what will the NHTSA do? Apologize? Come out with an endorsement of AP and FSD? Nothing? I mean looking at the 4 main problems, they seem trivial (except for perhaps the lane change issue) and easily modified by Tesla. Are there any analogies for actions taken by NHTSA when other "recalls" have fixed similar issues?

Any input will be appreciated!
I believe they just find something new to complain about. It's never-ending.
 
From Forbes: Buffett eats like a kindergartener whose parents are away. He downs three cans of Coke before leaving for work. For breakfast, he may have a bowl of ice cream, or Utz potato chips. Buffett's logic? "I checked the actuarial tables, and the lowest death rate is among 6-year-olds, so I decided to eat like a 6-year-old. It's the safest course I can take."
Utterly stupid, of course, but I figure once you hit 80 you can do anything you want (as long as you’re nice to people).