Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FastEddieB]

Only if you want no more innovation from Tesla.

Maybe. But like Apple without Jobs, maybe there comes a time where a company can thrive with less emphasis on innovation and more on consolidation and long term profitability.

 

[cusetownusa]

OK. So it sounds to me like we are indeed nearing the end of Foundation Series. I'd say it's had a good run and continued for much longer than I expected.

If true, then it was a good run. I just don't know why they would skip over all the people that made reservations years before November 2023, like me. Granted, if offered the FS, I would decline as its way more than I am willing to spend.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I may be misunderstaning this comment, so forgive me if I am. But if you are alluding to the Delaware court's reasoning for nullifying Elon's compensation package, i.e. that shareholders weren't aware of the cozy relationship Elon had with the board, it is difficult for me to really believe that the majority of investors weren't well aware of that coziness. I sure was, and I am one of the most unsophisticated investors on this forum. Generally a court relies on evidence and testimony to come to their conclusions. In this case, was there tesitmony from investors that they were unaware of the reality of the situation? I genuinely don't know the answer to that question.

“Put simply, neither the Compensation Committee nor the Board acted in the best interests of the Company when negotiating Musk’s compensation plan. In fact, there is barely any evidence of negotiations at all. Rather than negotiate against Musk with the mindset of a third party, the Compensation Committee worked alongside him, almost as an advisory body.”

Trying to re-authorize the same compensation plan does not remedy this, per my understanding.

There were several points brought up that resulted in rescission:

-Musk's status as a controlling shareholder (remains unchanged)
-shareholders not "fully informed" (I would agree with you, at this point, everyone voting is informed based on the publicity and additional disclosures)
-Tesla/Musk did not meet the entire fairness standard
-Thus, both Tesla/Musk breached their fiduciary duty

I'm not sure if the BOD will still be seen as mostly not independent. If it passes, I'm sure it'll head back to court where Tesla/Musk can certainly argue that all shareholders were fully informed. With the remaining set of facts largely the same, I wonder if it'll stick.

 

[cusetownusa]

If EV tax credits go away we might see a demand pull forward for Q3 and Q4. ( I wish more people start thinking this way ... )
By the time EV tax credits go away, Tesla needs to have the MQ/2 25K car ready.

A lot of folks who buy 50K + cars might be in tax bracket in which they don't qualify for the credits anyway. Better interest rates will negate the EV credits going away.

If EV credits go away it will hurt the hybrids more than Tesla (I think).

If they go away, it will hurt Tesla. As is, they are having a tough time moving all the cars this year. $7500 is a big chunk of change for most people.

 

[sunwarriors]

Maybe. But like Apple without Jobs, maybe there comes a time where a company can thrive with less emphasis on innovation and more on consolidation and long term profitability.

You can also look at MSFT where Satya Nadella came in and grew MSFT from around ~300 billion to 3 trillion+? I don't think Musk would leave, no matter the vote, but it will probably pass. At least we only have 2 more days.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Stock has been stuck between $165-$185 for the better part of ~4.5 months, with the exception of a 3 week slide post-Q1 P&D numbers (to ~$140) and a spike after the Q1 EC (to $~$194). I would expect we'll see movement, one way or the other, come Friday and into next week. Unless we're just stuck in the $170s forever lol

 

[DarkandStormy]

It looks like Tesla is sending out FS invites to CT orders from as late as November 2023. That means we could see non-FS soon, which will have a higher conversion rate.

My buddy just got an offer last week. He placed his in late 2021 (whenever FSD went from $7k to $8k - I can't keep track of the FSD price changes lol).

So they must really be rolling through the reservation list now and not getting a lot of takers on the FS.

 

[Opus BC fan]

and Schwab is experiencing "technical issues" so I can't catch this falling knife...

IMHO- FUD is at Maximum intensity and it is time to buy.

 

[cusetownusa]

My buddy just got an offer last week. He placed his in late 2021 (whenever FSD went from $7k to $8k - I can't keep track of the FSD price changes lol).

So they must really be rolling through the reservation list now and not getting a lot of takers on the FS.

They seem to be getting a lot more takers than I ever would have thought considering its an additional $20,000 premium over a price that is already higher than originally announced. Did your buddy pass on the FS?

I think at $80k ($72.5k after EV rebate), they will move a ton more and once fully ramped I wouldn't be surprised the price eventually goes down to aroune $70k before rebates. If that happens, I would be all over it, but who knows.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

If true, then it was a good run. I just don't know why they would skip over all the people that made reservations years before November 2023, like me. Granted, if offered the FS, I would decline as its way more than I am willing to spend.

I'd be surprised if you don't get the email before the FS ends.

 

[Mengy]

and Schwab is experiencing "technical issues" so I can't catch this falling knife...

IMHO- FUD is at Maximum intensity and it is time to buy.

I'd be tentative about buying now. If the vote fails on Thursday then we are likely going down even further from here on Friday and into next week.

Then again, if you plan to hold for years then the post vote dip probably won't matter much.

 

[SO16]

I'd be tentative about buying now. If the vote fails on Thursday then we are likely going down even further from here on Friday and into next week.

Then again, if you plan to hold for years then the post vote dip probably won't matter much.

I can picture the SP falling if they both pass. So many institutional want it to fail and may sell.

Another case of down on good news, down on bad news. I’m just planning on this entire year to be crap.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’m just planning on this entire year to be crap.

I'd have to say we are definitely on the right track with 1/2 of 2024 already completed

 

[DarkandStormy]

They seem to be getting a lot more takers than I ever would have thought considering its an additional $20,000 premium over a price that is already higher than originally announced. Did your buddy pass on the FS?

I think at $80k ($72.5k after EV rebate), they will move a ton more and once fully ramped I wouldn't be surprised the price eventually goes down to aroune $70k before rebates. If that happens, I would be all over it, but who knows.

Yeah, he said $100k wasn't in the budget. If it was closer to ~$70k he said he'd pull the trigger.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I'd be tentative about buying now. If the vote fails on Thursday then we are likely going down even further from here on Friday and into next week.

Then again, if you plan to hold for years then the post vote dip probably won't matter much.

I am all about holding for distant horizons. I think for myself when others try to manipulate me with fear. Short term you may be correct. In the long term, all this bull manure becomes fertilizer. There is no other company as diversified and innovative as Tesla. No worries here.

 

[AndrewZ]

I can picture the SP falling if they both pass. So many institutional want it to fail and may sell.

Another case of down on good news, down on bad news. I’m just planning on this entire year to be crap.

If the institutions held after voting against it in 2018, why would that be different now? These funds have a time horizon waaaaay beyond retail investors.

Kinda interesting that part of the upset over this situation was some dude with 9 shares bringing the lawsuit that voided the pay package, but also some of the biggest investors in pension funds etc around the world have been against the pay package since it was first floated.

 

[Snerruc]

A few thousand pages ago, I wrote that I didn’t invest in companies dependent on a single person for their success. That caused some puzzlement as to what I was doing here. Well, I do sometimes buy stock for entertainment value because I find the person interesting. Well, a few years ago playing around with Robinhood I bought some Tesla. Then things happened and holy crap it was now worth a million. Needless to say it’s not worth that now. Am I upset? No I don’t need to sell it for something important. As Bernard Baruch said “ an investment is worth what you can sell it for on the day you absolutely have to sell it.”
The last few hundred pages show why that is my philosophy. The upset, irrationality and just plain hate shown lately amaze me. Life is too short to be grinding your gears like this. If your investment in Tesla is affecting your life to this extent, please consider other investments that don’t cause so much pain. Life is too short, period.

 

[alexxs88]

This ^^^

Fleet responses cost Waymo money. Fleet responses make it hard to scale.

There is reason to believe that Tesla's end-to-end solution will make fleet responses very rare and allow Tesla to scale quickly.

OK, I understand your points and apologize for my initial reply.

At the same time there is enough proof (for me) that Waymo's solution is currently at least an order of magnitude better than Tesla's (their data would suggest two orders of magnitude). I think we'll just have to see how the next few years are going to pan out, I don't see any technical reason why tesla would be able to leapfrog them in terms of results.

 

[Linkmeup]

Hi Folks, I did a little research using...Google! I checked Google News and did a search for "tesla" based on relevance for specific time periods (monthly and quarterly). Here's what I found from a general sense of the top 5-10 articles in those searches:

Monthly:
January: Q4/2023 Deliveries Beat
February: Cybertruck and Model 3 Refresh
March: Model 3 Refresh Rollout
April: Q1/2024 Deliveries Fall
May: FUD (see below)

2024 By Quarter (top article):
* Q1: We drove a Tesla Model 3 in Detroit and Silicon Valley. The experiences were wildly different.
* Q2: FUD: Layoffs, Q1 Deliveries Fall, Low-Cost Car Scrap

Things are going great from a R&D perspective!

The NACS Rollout (February), FSD Public Release (April) were also hovering, but weren't high up the rankings and not prevalent. Personally, I think May's FUD love is a blood in the streets moment due to the people smelling weakness (or artificially generating it) from the Q1/2024 deliveries fallout (which is largely due to circumstances outside of Tesla's control).

 

[Mengy]

I’m just planning on this entire year to be crap.

Yep, I think 2024 will be a crap year for TSLA too. Maybe possibly tentatively towards the end we might see a bump if production of those economy Model 3&Y's begins, or if general auto production rises sharply to something above 2023 levels, but even then I'm not sure TSLA would rise out of this slump. I feel it might take more than that.