Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

I hope you are right, and I am proved wrong. But I doubt it.

I think he's right... Mexicans work very hard. Yes, China can move quickly and repeat exactly, but if the process is clear and controlled, Mexico will be fine. It's a known fact that Mexico also makes some of the best Fender guitars, just as good as China, maybe better than USA. We might have to make sure they don't use salt water to mix the concrete, but Mexicans are hardest working people I've ever met.

Last I checked, robots do most of the work at Tesla factories, and the robot/ human ratio is only increasing with every design iteration. This is why Tesla can make vehicles profitably in the US where labor rates are so much higher.

I don’t doubt anyone’s work ethic or capabilities, but not even sure it will matter much.

 

[bkp_duke]

I think he's right... Mexicans work very hard. Yes, China can move quickly and repeat exactly, but if the process is clear and controlled, Mexico will be fine. It's a known fact that Mexico also makes some of the best Fender guitars, just as good as China, maybe better than USA. We might have to make sure they don't use salt water to mix the concrete, but Mexicans are hardest working people I've ever met.

Mexico has 2-3 decades of auto assembly experience, they have a very good labor force for this.

Furthermore, Teslas have far fewer parts than ICE and even EV competitors (I'm looking at you Mustang Mach-E).

Quality of assembly should not be an issue.


(there is no salt water near Monterrey, FYI)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Mexico has 2-3 decades of auto assembly experience, they have a very good labor force for this.

Furthermore, Teslas have far fewer parts than ICE and even EV competitors (I'm looking at you Mustang Mach-E).

Quality of assembly should not be an issue.


(there is no salt water near Monterrey, FYI)

Cant wait for all the haters to point out that the Model Y is made in the same country as the Mach-E when Giga Mexico comes online and starts producing vehicles!

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Gigafactory locations and products Mexico
Project Dojo - the SaaS Product? Twitter Chat usage?
Tesla Compact Hatch Coming?
All discussion of Rivian Automotive Earnings today
Brexit New deal agreed
Tesla Investor Day Discussion 24 hours!

 

[wipster]

If it's not, Elon will be sleeping on the factory floor until it is.

At least the food's great there!

 

[GOVA]

I hope you are right, and I am proved wrong. But I doubt it.

I think that nowadays with Tesla implemented factory, the production numbers will differ less between different nations/workforce once fully developed. There still be differences in output numbers but not due to particular geo location specifically.

With the 'setup' Tesla provides along other factors like training and reliance on robots, human factor (worker) will not sway this one way or another too much.

There are other, major factors to set up a factory in Mexico and/or any other place for Tesla to consider.

 

[wipster]

Last I checked, robots do most of the work at Tesla factories, and the robot/ human ratio is only increasing with every design iteration. This is why Tesla can make vehicles profitably in the US where labor rates are so much higher.

I don’t doubt anyone’s work ethic or capabilities, but not even sure it will matter much.

I'm sure that placing one of the new Gigafactories in Monterrey will be hugely beneficial to both Tesla and Nuevo Leon!

To the competition?

 

[petit_bateau]

I think he's right... Mexicans work very hard. Yes, China can move quickly and repeat exactly, but if the process is clear and controlled, Mexico will be fine. It's a known fact that Mexico also makes some of the best Fender guitars, just as good as China, maybe better than USA. We might have to make sure they don't use salt water to mix the concrete, but Mexicans are hardest working people I've ever met.

A Mexican friend has their main factory in Monterrey. They are very excited and happy about the news. Their workforce are skilled and hard working. They are concerned about keeping them.

 

[Electroman]

Last I checked, robots do most of the work at Tesla factories, and the robot/ human ratio is only increasing with every design iteration. This is why Tesla can make vehicles profitably in the US where labor rates are so much higher.

I don’t doubt anyone’s work ethic or capabilities, but not even sure it will matter much.

Then how do you explain the noticeable difference in higher productivity & profitability out of Shanghai factory compared to Freemont/Austin/Berlin factories ?

 

[bkp_duke]

Then how do you explain the noticeable difference in higher productivity & profitability out of Shanghai factory compared to Freemont/Austin/Berlin factories ?

Fremont is a very inefficient factory, with probably the most expensive workforce you can get for manufacturing (Cali labor rates = $$$$).

It's also in "inherited" facility that was not custom-built to Tesla specs, and it shows (have you seen how they shuttle parts around that place like crazy, etc.?).

 

[DarthPierce]

Then how do you explain the noticeable difference in higher productivity & profitability out of Shanghai factory compared to Freemont/Austin/Berlin factories ?

Fremont was not a clean sheet Tesla designed factory. It's also burdened by producing the more complicated S and X. Berlin and Austin are still ramping. I see 0 reasons that are cultural in these differences.

 

[Singuy]

Then how do you explain the noticeable difference in higher productivity & profitability out of Shanghai factory compared to Freemont/Austin/Berlin factories ?

I want to say there are more production lines in Shanghai vs Fremont. Fremont waste a lot of valuable space and staff on lower production Model S/X while Shanghai only pumps out high volume cars. As for Austin and Texas those are not at full ramp so it's not apples to oranges.

 

[wipster]

I want to say there are more production lines in Shanghai vs Fremont. Fremont waste a lot of valuable space and staff on lower production Model S/X while Shanghai only pumps out high volume cars. As for Austin and Texas those are not at full ramp so it's not apples to oranges.

Plus Giga Shanghai has been building BEV's since the end of 2019. It's not like they just flipped a switch, they took time to ramp up as well.

Pretty amazing though how construction was started in Dec 2018 and just a year later they're making model 3's and 3 years later pumping out 1M 3's and Y's. That's awesome when you think about it. And if Tom Zhu's worth his salt, Austin and Berlin will soon follow suit!

The future looks bright, glad I just bought a new pair of Wayfarers!

 

[Xepa777]

I disagree, someone just posted this here yesterday as a valid argument:

"The evidence is that the competition is growing their relevant market share faster than Tesla however you want to cut it. "

I think there are still people on TMC who are concerned over Tesla's "market share" number even as other manufacturers are increasing their EV offerings.

If people who are this deep into tesla investing are on a tesla specific website need to be re-assured that the EV market growing can support Tesla even if their relative market share % drops then I don’t know what to say lol.

I regularly go on Reddit (and even the Slickdeals forum often last month) and say some of this basic stuff (like pointing out teslas heat pump) that those broader audiences don’t know but…you don’t see me pointing that here on a regular basis for validation of teslas vertically integrated manufacturing prowess because…it’s a given? Maybe I give all the people who downvoted my last comment too much credit and this is new info to them (shrug).

But hey I get that people here like to just reassure themselves that their (potentially irresponsible) amount of money invested in a stock will turn out alright with echo chamber group think. Whether it’s in a way that’s objectively true (I.e. Teslas plans to ramp their manufacturing in a sustainable way) or in a hopium way (all the messages here about robotaxis after Teslas autonomy day in 2019). Just pointing out at a certain point it becomes similar to political conversations where people just circlejerk each other around with self affirming statements.

But hey whatever content anyone wants to say. I’d rather focus my time on sussing out unknowns like what Tesla can charge for mega packs and still scale exponentially the rest of this decade, because that’s a big question mark for me.

 

[jerry33]

Then how do you explain the noticeable difference in higher productivity & profitability out of Shanghai factory compared to Freemont/Austin/Berlin factories ?

Austin and Berlin are ramping up. it takes at least a year to reach full production in a new factory. Fremont was the first factory and not built from a clean sheet.

 

[Xepa777]

Mexico has 2-3 decades of auto assembly experience, they have a very good labor force for this.

Furthermore, Teslas have far fewer parts than ICE and even EV competitors (I'm looking at you Mustang Mach-E).

Quality of assembly should not be an issue.


(there is no salt water near Monterrey, FYI)

I have grave concerns around the politics of a Mexico plant, like paying off cartels not to disrupt Tesla (or employees working at Tesla). Elon doesn’t even like paying for advertisements. Imagine paying for “stability.”

Hope I’m wrong, but I foresee a lot of headache coming from here in the future. Even before the plant was built the Mexican president tried threatening water rights to get the plant built in a “preferred” location, along with all those public leaks of negotiations coming from various Mexico regions competing for the location.

 

[MC3OZ]

Not necessarily. Remember the profit out of Chinese factory is not necessarily out of reduced labor expenses, but due to very high productivity. Close to $1M cars a year. It is highly unlikely the Mexican factory would be close that level of productivity.

If the Mexican factory is building Gen3 cars that is a big advantage.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In other car manufacturer news, talk about VW falling on hard times!

Volkswagen’s car-tracking firm demanded $150 to renew expired subscription to help police locate stolen car with abducted boy inside

Detectives had to pay $150 to reactivate the service before the company would find the stolen vehicle with the 2-year-old inside.

fortune.com

Could you imagine if Tesla failed to co-operate like this?

 

[jerry33]

I have grave concerns around the politics of a Mexico plant, like paying off cartels not to disrupt Tesla (or employees working at Tesla). Elon doesn’t even like paying for advertisements. Imagine paying for “stability.”

There's a reason the Cybertruck is bullet resistant.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Engineers at Toyota recently conducted a teardown study of the Tesla Model Y: "Taking the skin off the Model Y, it was truly a truly work of art," said one Toyota executive who scrutinized the Tesla part by part. "It's unbelievable."