Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Apparently, MIT Model Y already has the hairpin motor mentioned during investors day Munroe was so excited about. Is this news?

The earliest evidence that Tesla had begun making hairpin motors was December 2021. I don’t know if Tesla has been making hairpin motors for production cars or at which sites, or even if the Go Giga video was just showing experimental motor manufacturing that wasn’t yet in mass production at Shanghai.

Tesla showed an image on Investor Day indicating that they were switching to a hairpin motor design, but I just now remembered that this isn't actually isn't news. In fact, this has been public info for over a year and Tesla has been making hairpin motors in Shanghai since at least 2021 if not earlier.

Remember 12/9? Yes, that's right, 12/9.

The short "Go Giga" teaser video released on 12/8/2021 featured the hairpin motor.

Hairpin Formation:

Automated hairpin assembly part 1

Automated assembly part 2

Opposite end view of hairpin insertion machine. Clip shows the housing rotating counterclockwise about 5 degrees at a time with the same kind of motion seen in the clip of the actual hairpin insertion.

 

[wipster]

Could you guys give a bit more details on how this is relevant to TSLA - I watched the trailer, just spotted a Merc, nothing more, what has Tesla to do with it? (Not on Paramount+ - won't subscribe to more than the 3 streaming services that I already have (prime, apple, netflix)

EDIT: googled - seams like main character drives a pre-refresh X - too bad it's not the yoke:

The S played a very prominent role in the first episode. You need to watch it to understand

 

[Krugerrand]

Hmmm all these end-of-quarter incentives, despite dismantling the ‘wave’, makes me curious. Are they running behind and have to push just to reach minimum expectations? Or is it burnt hair time and they’re going to knock it out of the park?

*Opens voodoo drawer and has hand hovering over the voodoo doll in anticipation - *

Somebody, make my day.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks for posting. I think this is really significant. Some here have dreamed that Tesla could take a huge share like that in every market.

But others have argued that there are too many people who just don't want to buy a Tesla. Or, they don't want to have the same car as everyone else.

These are both arguments that "individuality" is an important factor in the car-buying decision. But Norway is showing that this is not necessarily the case. If Tesla sells cars that are significantly better at a price people can afford, "individuality" goes out the window.

Maybe Norwegians don’t prize *individuality* (being different, being unique, standing out in a crowd) the same way Americans do? ‍

 

[Gigapress]

Maybe Norwegians don’t prize *individuality* (being different, being unique, standing out in a crowd) the same way Americans do? ‍

That might be but I think the main reason is that Norway’s car market is now more than 80% EVs. Tesla taking around half of the EV segment is normal compared to other countries around the world, and Tesla’s share in Norway and the rest of Europe as well will continue to trend higher as Giga Berlin becomes the primary contributor rather than Shanghai.

A good comparison case is the US West Coast cities which are very diverse melting pots where all manner of weirdness and individuality are accepted and Tesla has a similar market share as in Norway and other similar countries. Anywhere people buy a lot of EVs, they buy a lot of Teslas. It does not appear to have much dependence on the local culture.

 

[betstarship]

I think the biggest boost may actually come from the engineering side, GPT-4 is pretty good at software engineering tasks, so much so that some people is predicting software engineer as a career will be extinct in 10 years. Whether that is hyperbole remains to be seen, but there's no question you can get significant productivity boost by using LLM as a helper/tool when you write software.

It would also be interesting to see whether LLM can boost productivity in non-software engineering tasks, like if you let LLM read all of Tesla's material & battery research material, would it be able to come up with suggestions for better material or batteries, especially if you give it access to tools such as Wolfram Alpha? Nobody knows, but probably worth to give it a try at least.

This also shows the importance of having your own LLM, since I'm pretty sure Tesla does not want to upload all of its source code and research material to OpenAI/Microsoft...

This is pretty cool if this happens (e.g. solidworks is for CAD design):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639429368190742529

Added: The context to Tesla - manufacturing design and development.

 

[Christine69420]

Maybe Norwegians don’t prize *individuality* (being different, being unique, standing out in a crowd) the same way Americans do? ‍

I think enough of us do prize individuality. But they are not the majority. I would think they are not in the US either.

I'm seeing a few wrapped TMYs - I guess that is enough for many. And the very few really fat cats get cars costing twice that of a Plaid - and up. Possibly with a driver. And then a Model S as an everyday runaround down from their mountains.

 

[Chenkers]

The report from autoevolution below is stating that CATL will begin supplying Tesla with its new M3P battery in Q4 of this year (deliveries in 2024). The M3P is an improvement on the current LFP batteries and is expected to improve the energy density by 15%, resulting in a suggested range increase of 10%.

Tesla Model 3 With CATL's M3P Battery to Launch in China, Offers Better Range, Lower Price

This would currently impact Model 3 SR+ in the US (assuming no changes to 2170 or 4680 to meet IRA) and all standard range Model 3 and Y shipped from Shanghai. The current LFP Model Y SR from Shanghai has a WLTP range of 455 km (283 miles). Whereas the current Model Y LR from Shanghai has a WLTP range of 533km (331 Miles), a 17% improvement over the SR. So with a combination of the new M3P battery and power train improvements like the hairpin motor etc, we could potentially see around a 15% improvement in range.

So where does that leave the LR version compared to the SR in markets where source materials/IRA aren't relevant? I note that Tesla currently does not ship the Model Y LR to markets like Australia. Maybe it's because upcoming improvements to the range of the SR version could make the current LR less appealing by comparison.

 

[Drumheller]

*Opens voodoo drawer and has hand hovering over the voodoo doll in anticipation - *

Somebody, make my day.

Would you show me how to make one of those, please? I'd like to be able to massage my own back.

As for individuality: some people spend more to get a wrap so their car is a less common color and more unique.

On the cybertruck: I hadn't previously considered the stainless steel temperature in the sun. My old Model s door handles were painful in the Phoenix summer when parked out in the sun. Got minor burns a few times and started covering my hand with the bottom of my shirt (stretching out my shirts). Forgot to warn a few friends, too. I hope it works out fine. If the entire body heats up like those old chrome handles, that actually could be an issue here in Phoenix summers. May run that equation for 115F days.

 

[Speedr117]

Maybe Norwegians don’t prize *individuality* (being different, being unique, standing out in a crowd) the same way Americans do? ‍

Two words:

Toyota Camry

 

[betstarship]

Anyone know where I can find an updated (2022) chart of this data? I'm trying to understand how this has changed since 2020.

Edit x2: Never mind, found it - there hasn't been an update since 2019 for the data. Federal Reserve Board - Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Anyone know where I can find an updated (2022) chart of this data?

Darn...so close to that 1%, only off by about $6M, I blame Elon!!!!

 

[jerry33]

I think enough of us do prize individuality. But they are not the majority. I would think they are not in the US either.

I'm seeing a few wrapped TMYs - I guess that is enough for many. And the very few really fat cats get cars costing twice that of a Plaid - and up. Possibly with a driver. And then a Model S as an everyday runaround down from their mountains.

Individuality is fine, but money and doing the right thing are just as important. Perhaps if your house is individual enough you don't care about whether your car is that individual. In any case, except for those few exotic cars with astronomical price tags, any car you buy with be one of hundreds of thousands (maybe not an Edsel or Yugo).

 

[Prunesquallor]

Two words:

Toyota Camry

Ford F-150

 

[FireMedic]

Maybe Norwegians don’t prize *individuality* (being different, being unique, standing out in a crowd) the same way Americans do? ‍

This is a really interesting question that I hadn’t really considered much before. I feel that, here in SFBayArea, individuality appears to be a thing (from lifted bro trucks to riced out hondas and everything in between).

When I first saw Tesla explode on the scene here, I naturally attributed it to the tech scene, “virtues signaling, and proximity to their main factory.

As we surpass 25% market share in some Bay Area counties I find myself looking for another reason for this extreme growth despite legitimate ev competition here.

Pricing is less a factor here on average than globally and yet Tesla continues to dominate. So what gives…my conclusion is that historically brand differentiation of vehicle specifications and technology advantages were nominal and borderline subjective. That’s no longer the case. The giant (and growing) chasm of all meaningful advantages is just too big to ignore now. Blackberry and Nokia simply cannot compete AT ANY PRICE with their inferior product offerings.

I will not be surprised to see 35-50% market saturation here in the Bay Area once we reach steady state. Just like apple. People want to be different; but only if it’s convenient!

 

[Cal1]

On the cybertruck: I hadn't previously considered the stainless steel temperature in the sun. My old Model s door handles were painful in the Phoenix summer when parked out in the sun. Got minor burns a few times and started covering my hand with the bottom of my shirt (stretching out my shirts). Forgot to warn a few friends, too. I hope it works out fine. If the entire body heats up like those old chrome handles, that actually could be an issue here in Phoenix summers. May run that equation for 115F days.

God you’re so right. Anyone in sunny states should cancel immediately or at least wait until enough CT’s are delivered to see if it’s as bad a problem as you suspect! I can already see the Texas evening news station cooking eggs on the frunk hood.

Ok I’m all for anything that reduces the line in front of my order. I doubt it will be a problem for us NW boys.

 

[SunCatcher]

Would you show me how to make one of those, please? I'd like to be able to massage my own back.

As for individuality: some people spend more to get a wrap so their car is a less common color and more unique.

On the cybertruck: I hadn't previously considered the stainless steel temperature in the sun. My old Model s door handles were painful in the Phoenix summer when parked out in the sun. Got minor burns a few times and started covering my hand with the bottom of my shirt (stretching out my shirts). Forgot to warn a few friends, too. I hope it works out fine. If the entire body heats up like those old chrome handles, that actually could be an issue here in Phoenix summers. May run that equation for 115F days.

Instead of waiting for the "experts" to give us the actual stats on this; we could run our own rudimentary tests, albeit less accurate: Set a white painted piece of steel out in the sun, right next to a piece of scrap stainless steel. After an hour, scan it with an infrared thermometer. Bob's your uncle!

This seems too easy. What am I missing?

 

[Stretch2727]

Individuality is fine, but money and doing the right thing are just as important. Perhaps if your house is individual enough you don't care about whether your car is that individual. In any case, except for those few exotic cars with astronomical price tags, any car you buy with be one of hundreds of thousands (maybe not an Edsel or Yugo).

It's nice to have an individualize car but most don't want pay extra for it.

We had a very early Model 3 and for the first 6 months we had to get used to all the extra attention it would draw. Funny story we were driving it on the turnpike and there was a guy driving a minivan 3 lanes over across the divider in the same direction straining to look at it. He was barely looking forward and I commented to my wife how he was going to end up crashing trying to look at the Model 3. She very cooly said "He's not looking at the car, he's looking at me."

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Hmmm all these end-of-quarter incentives, despite dismantling the ‘wave’, makes me curious. Are they running behind and have to push just to reach minimum expectations? Or is it burnt hair time and they’re going to knock it out of the park?

My guess is, and this is a complete guess, inventories of the S and X just simply got a little high. Will be interested to see if they nudge the prices down after the 31st.

 

[Ogre]

I am not the one pretending to know something. I am the one saying there are potential foreseeable pros and cons to the design, and no one really knows anything wrt the cyber truck yet cause no one has used one. Just trying to keep some balance. So much stuff stated as fact, yet no one knows.

You are "Pretending to Know" the design will be an issue.

You've stated as fact a bunch of things, for example you've said outright the Cybertruck's design has delayed it's release which is nonsense. Many other things as well which you are guessing at.

Stop the guessing and assumptions and only state the things you actually know are true and this conversation would have been a lot shorter.

I'm done arguing with you and if you keep going down this endless rabbit hole of BS it's a short route to everyone's ignore list. Likely on most already.