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Depends on the timeframe, and we are splitting hairs because neither is likely to be shipping in high volumes by the end of the year.

Elon is on the record as predicting a slow ramp for the CT, hard to know exactly what that means, and even Tesla probably only have a rough idea of how the first 3-6 months of the ramp will go.

But CT shipping in any volume is a big leap forward.
I edited the above, but I think the big mystery is when the main semi line starts up.
 
Troy ended up at 427. I predicted he would end up at 429 when he was at 409...

I predicted he would end up at 429 when he was at 409... I guarantee he will end up halfway between the two. 438 and 409 = 429k.

Hate to break this to you after Happy Hour has started, but halfway between 438 and 409 is 423.5K ...

:p
 
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Presumably as it's April Fools day, Elon is now following UK Prime Minister.

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Alternative explanation, Elon hates potholes

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TMC is going down for maintenance later today. Big update inbound so could be out for up to 12 hours. Err, not great timing with P&D tomorrow...

Tesla Motors Club Blog - Maintenance 04.01.23

In other news, difficult to tell real news from April Fools jokes. Couple of examples:

Apparently MY is best selling car in Europe - haha maybe when Berlin ramps up they have a chance
FSD beta V11.4.5 installing now. Might have believed that one if 11.4.4 hadn't been released yesterday.
 
We’re a small country and weather sucks most of the time. But we rock:


BREAKING: @Tesla was Denmark's 🇩🇰 best-selling car brand in all of Q1 2023 with a market share of 13,08% 🥇

@Tesla sold 5.225 vehicles overall in Q1 and has how overtaken Peugeot, VW & Toyota ⚡️@TroyTeslike @piloly @sawyermerritt
 
We’re a small country and weather sucks most of the time. But we rock:


BREAKING: @Tesla was Denmark's 🇩🇰 best-selling car brand in all of Q1 2023 with a market share of 13,08% 🥇

@Tesla sold 5.225 vehicles overall in Q1 and has how overtaken Peugeot, VW & Toyota ⚡️@TroyTeslike @piloly @sawyermerritt
Busted growth /s

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Original tweet in reply to Denmark club tweet, source of numbers listed in thread as well

Plus Norway as a mature, Tesla infested market, Tesla everywhere, what do the Norwegians go and do .... take delivery of loads more Teslas at a fast rate as soon as they're in the country
 
Depends on the timeframe, and we are splitting hairs because neither is likely to be shipping in high volumes by the end of the year.

Elon is on the record as predicting a slow ramp for the CT, hard to know exactly what that means, and even Tesla probably only have a rough idea of how the first 3-6 months of the ramp will go.

But CT shipping in any volume is a big leap forward.
CT is such a wacky, new product, and has such a huge, huge media profile, that I suspect they will be very very cautious about the initial rollout. They do *not* want big recalls for the cybertruck, so I'm guessing they let employees have them for quite a while, and collect a lot of data before they really ramp up.

Semi customers are different. Its business 2 business, so a lot less public. I think any issues with early semi production will be handled relatively quietly. But the first person who has a motor failure or software problem in a cybertruck is going to monetize the *** out of it on twitter and youtube, so they need to tread carefully.

Its a brilliant time to be a tesla investor. I love the fact that both semi and CT are imminent. Even if one disappoints in some way, or gets delayed, we still have the other one. And a new mexico factory, plus maybe some FSD and optimus progress... its getting hard to keep up.
 
Something else to consider about CT's immanent production debut is how this vehicle will have front and rear castings. Meaning, they will need to have two of the large IDRA machines running to reach production.

As far as I know, there is only one of these being assembled on site currently, and there has been no perforation in the roof for the aluminum smelter for either of these Gigapresses per Joe Tegtmeyer's drone videos.

Usually, there is some buzz when IDRA ships another press, and again when the press is delivered to GigaTx. Any timeline for CT production should take into account such evidence as indication of when both presses have been installed and are operational. Other things to look for would be CT casting test articles in the recycle pile on the North side of the building.
 
Strange, the Cybervault looks to be a wall charger with a built in locker? (It has a barrel lock on the side just under the charger handle) Is there even a market for something like this? Of course it might be much more than it first appears to be too.
It looks big enough to be a powerwall. That would be an interesting product.
 
Something else to consider about CT's immanent production debut is how this vehicle will have front and rear castings. Meaning, they will need to have two of the large IDRA machines running to reach production.

As far as I know, there is only one of these being assembled on site currently, and there has been no perforation in the roof for the aluminum smelter for either of these Gigapresses per Joe Tegtmeyer's drone videos.

Usually, there is some buzz when IDRA ships another press, and again when the press is delivered to GigaTx. Any timeline for CT production should take into account such evidence as indication of when both presses have been installed and are operational. Other things to look for would be CT casting test articles in the recycle pile on the North side of the building.
Some big/heavy deliveries to the casting area were spotted recently. None were definitely Gigapress parts, but it's the most likely candidate. (Could also be a new 'small' one though..)

The casting windows were covered/blacked out a few weeks ago, so there's definitely something interesting going on.