Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

I should add that I'm not trying to say someone like DirtyTesla is only intentionally showing good drives, just that a given route a block away from another can be the difference between apparent 100% success and 100% failure

It's not just a question of route. It is about trusting FSD to not intervene too quickly but not wait until it's too late. This learning curve is steep and what makes it possible for YT testers like Omar have so many zero disengagement drives.

For eg., if you try Dirty Tesla routes, do you get the same results?

 

[JimS]

Also, still in 2023 Tesla Daily often seems suspiciously similar to a highlights summary of our thread…

I’ve been watching Rob Maurer’s YouTube channel for the past couple of years. Yesterday’s program was the first time that I know of that he acknowledged the options market might have had something to do with the closing share price. (Where else could he have gotten that idea?)

As for whether or not he is an enrolled member of TMC, I would guess he is a supporting member.

 

[replicant]

Even the Apple of 2023 spends a very small amount on traditional advertising. 'Think Different' was brilliant in 2007. In 2023 not at all, now the entire strategy is to build loyalty with an 'ecosystem' which existed as a concept in biology and botany back in 2007.

They may not spend a lot of $ on ads but they must do very targeted ads. I cannot walk more than 200 meters, anywhere within 5 km from my home and office without seing at least one big or huuuge Apple ad (I live in Paris). Some many historical monuments are covered with Apple ads, especially train stations and museum. Almost every subway entrance has one. Taxis too.

It's Apple or some luxury brand everywhere, all the time. I guess they target the most influential people but they do some very heavy advertising nonetheless.

These days, they're plastering the whole cities with ads for their Yellow campaign. It's everywhere:

 

[SO16]

They may not spend a lot of $ on ads but they must do very targeted ads. I cannot walk more than 200 meters, anywhere within 5 km from my home and office without seing at least one big or huuuge Apple ad (I live in Paris). Some many historical monuments are covered with Apple ads, especially train stations and museum. Almost every subway entrance has one. Taxis too.

It's Apple or some luxury brand everywhere, all the time. I guess they target the most influential people but they do some very heavy advertising nonetheless.

That’s sad. Talk about taking away from the architecture.

 

[AudubonB]

• Council
• A population full of native English speakers (the most

Gave you a "like" for the sheet enormity of that post

Anyone got some Cliff notes?

Sure:

“Alaska”.

Of which existence Mr Musk and Tesla remain, even after all my years on TMC, ignorant.

It’s the geographical analog of a shibboleth. But I have a dream.

 

[unk45]

They may not spend a lot of $ on ads but they must do very targeted ads. I cannot walk more than 200 meters, anywhere within 5 km from my home and office without seing at least one big or huuuge Apple ad (I live in Paris). Some many historical monuments are covered with Apple ads, especially train stations and museum. Almost every subway entrance has one. Taxis too.

It's Apple or some luxury brand everywhere, all the time. I guess they target the most influential people but they do some very heavy advertising nonetheless.

These days, they're plastering the whole cities with ads for their Yellow campaign. It's everywhere:

Yes, absolutely. In markets that allow outside posters they are exceedingly cost effective when placed in prime areas. For France and quite a few countries the invention of that approach by Jean-Claude Decaux (JCDecaux )in 1964 ended with ubiquitous street placements including pissoirs. He really made it versatile and modern, although the base was common in the 1920's there too.;;

...roadside placements became popular in the 1920's-1950's, elderly US people will recall Burma Shave. Also long standing ones in central Tokyo and New York Times Square,among many others, have been long successful.

The careful use of billboards remains one traditional technique that is very cost effective where such techniques are readily available. Analogous versions include airport, train and bus terminals, with the odd variant such as the mobile billboards so common in London.

I did not comment on such speciality placements, perhaps I should have. JCDecaux, specifically, has been the global leader in such placements with exceeding cost effective and efficient placements in Airport luggage claim areas, bus and metro stations etc. They now are being innovative in pricing based on effectiveness, techniques that were formerly the province of direct response, mostly mail.

Tesla has, I understand, used these in several specific areas.

Thanks for mentioning this one. In my posts I have not gone into detail in several areas.
(FWIW in many countries banks, consumer products, travel services, airlines and luxury products use the JCDecaux practices and their imitators even with street placemats on a standalone and revolving basis. The singular key to success is placement accuracy, and nobody ever has beat the inventors.

Several charging providers are trying that process, including Volta in the US.

I hope I've not given too much detail, although I've left out a huge number of variants.

 

[UncaNed]

Well you are looking for mass adoption, not niche adoption. Most people don't pay hundreds of dollars in sub fees for their car. Those are luxury options for people who live less on a budget. I don't know, maybe it's just me. I couldn't see myself paying hundreds a month for years on end. I'm more in the camp of paying 15k one and done. Then again I'm also the type who paid off the house in 7 years because I hate paying interest.

As for more trouble than it's worth...this absolutely happens with FSD just due to the map data. It sometimes navigate you through weird neighborhoods or not taking some of the new roads into account. It's not even a matter of disengagement but just wanting to take the shortest or most sensible route have me disable FSD. I live in an ever expanding city/state due to mass migration so it's a thing here.

My gawd, yes!

Crappy mapping/ routing has taken me on long, pointless, time-wasting "scenic vectors" while "Navigating on Autopilot", missing events I did not want to miss.

Also, I wish Tesla would focus on cleaning up the erratic, unreliable "Summon" and basic "Autopilot" features a little... no, actually, a lot. I've had surprisingly rough results with each.

I love my model X Plaid, and I'm sure Tesla has the technology to drastically raise the value of these two apparently overlooked features; I'm going to Message the service folks while I've got their ear to forward my concern to Tesla since I scheduled mobile service to fix a mirror I broke.

 

[unk45]

Sure:

“Alaska”.

Of which existence Mr Musk and Tesla remain, even after all my years on TMC, ignorant.

It’s the geographical analog of a shibboleth. But I have a dream.

Poor poor man!! It's long away, from you I know but there are Superchargers in Alaska!/s

Alaska​

Soldotna, AK43540 Kleeb Loop Soldotna, AK 99669 Roadside Assistance : (877) 798-3752

Alaska​

Chugiak, AK
22211 Birchwood Loop Rd
8 stalls • 250 kW

 

[Unpilot]

Weekend laugh....well maybe cry.

 

[Singuy]

I’ve been watching Rob Maurer’s YouTube channel for the past couple of years. Yesterday’s program was the first time that I know of that he acknowledged the options market might have had something to do with the closing share price. (Where else could he have gotten that idea?)

As for whether or not he is an enrolled member of TMC, I would guess he is a supporting member.

I believe he has mentioned it plenty of times, especially when it's triple witching.

 

[GhostSkater]

Something I've been wondering for a while, if Highland Model 3 offers more range, which is likely the case, Model S is having less and less advantages. Increasing it's range would be the best way to differentiate it, but can they do it with 4680s?

Turns out that on the same cell area as the current 7920 18650s cells that results in 100 kWh, you can fit 1264 4680s, with the old 86 Wh per cell, that is 109 kWh, so from 405 miles it goes to 442 miles, good but still not that much

There is two more improvements that will help

1: 4680s V2 that are in production in Austin, now with full DBE on anode and cathode, and a longer jelly roll due to a new lid design and sealing method (laser welded vs crimped). The initial leaks from long ago were pointing into 96 Wh cells, which as we know didn't come to fruition, quite likely due to DBE anode problems that made they use the wet process

There is also a chance they started adding silicon, which will give it a energy density boost and put it over the current state of that art 2170s

Unfortunately I'm not aware of someone recently taking a 4680 pack apart and measuring it, so let's call it between 95 to 105 Wh per cell

2: On the above we just replace cell form factor keeping the same area, but with 4680s you can remove all the bracing the Model S pack have, let's call 5% more cells due to it

Joining both speculations, a pack would be from 126 kWh to 140 kWh, or 510 to 567 miles of range, lower bound one lines up nicely with what the Plaid+ was supposed to be

Add way faster charging due to the tabless electrode and Model S will be even more king than it already is (because honestly, while the king of 1000 km challenge, 250 kW is simply too little for it, specially with the tapper starting at ~32%)

Or they can scale down Model S/X volume and let it fade into oblivion as 3/Y takes more and more of it's orders and those two improve, which I don't will happen

 

[stealthyc]

It's not just a question of route. It is about trusting FSD to not intervene too quickly but not wait until it's too late. This learning curve is steep and what makes it possible for YT testers like Omar have so many zero disengagement drives.

For eg., if you try Dirty Tesla routes, do you get the same results?

I agree, but I’ve been a beta tester for ages and am very comfortable with letting it do its thing and see what happens.

 

[insaneoctane]

Well, I've had to read LOTS of opinions about advertising trying to get caught up with this thread, so here's mine...I'll keep it short and sweet.

Tesla has mountains of FUD to contend with on a daily basis. There are many people that can afford a Tesla that have been inundated by FUD that are not interested solely because they are misinformed. Countless misconceptions exist (actual range, lifetime carbon footprint, TCO, battery longevity, Supercharger network size, charging times, etc). Now that, in the US, wait times are getting back to "normal", I would love to see Tesla spend some money fighting FUD and educating people about Tesla EVs.

 

[Knightshade]

Something I've been wondering for a while, if Highland Model 3 offers more range, which is likely the case, Model S is having less and less advantages. Increasing it's range would be the best way to differentiate it, but can they do it with 4680s?

Turns out that on the same cell area as the current 7920 18650s cells that results in 100 kWh, you can fit 1264 4680s, with the old 86 Wh per cell, that is 109 kWh, so from 405 miles it goes to 442 miles, good but still not that much

There is two more improvements that will help

1: 4680s V2 that are in production in Austin, now with full DBE on anode and cathode, and a longer jelly roll due to a new lid design and sealing method (laser welded vs crimped). The initial leaks from long ago were pointing into 96 Wh cells, which as we know didn't come to fruition, quite likely due to DBE anode problems that made they use the wet process

There is also a chance they started adding silicon, which will give it a energy density boost and put it over the current state of that art 2170s

Unfortunately I'm not aware of someone recently taking a 4680 pack apart and measuring it, so let's call it between 95 to 105 Wh per cell

2: On the above we just replace cell form factor keeping the same area, but with 4680s you can remove all the bracing the Model S pack have, let's call 5% more cells due to it

Joining both speculations, a pack would be from 126 kWh to 140 kWh, or 510 to 567 miles of range, lower bound one lines up nicely with what the Plaid+ was supposed to be

Add way faster charging due to the tabless electrode and Model S will be even more king than it already is (because honestly, while the king of 1000 km challenge, 250 kW is simply too little for it, specially with the tapper starting at ~32%)

Or they can scale down Model S/X volume and let it fade into oblivion as 3/Y takes more and more of it's orders and those two improve, which I don't will happen

I'd be pretty shocked if they gave up a perfectly good supply of 18650s on the S/X and put 4680s, which are still in short supply and will continue to be for a while if they want to eventually move all 3/Y to structural packs- plus Cybertruck- into them.

I'm not aware of any folks who bought an S over a 3 primarily for range reasons... the higher lux features, air suspension, greater interior space, and obviously the existence of Plaid, seem to be the main differentiators there...

 

[jerry33]

Well, I've had to read LOTS of opinions about advertising trying to get caught up with this thread, so here's mine...I'll keep it short and sweet.

Tesla has mountains of FUD to contend with on a daily basis. There are many people that can afford a Tesla that have been inundated by FUD that are not interested solely because they are misinformed. Countless misconceptions exist (actual range, lifetime carbon footprint, TCO, battery longevity, Supercharger network size, charging times, etc). Now that, in the US, wait times are getting back to "normal", I would love to see Tesla spend some money fighting FUD and educating people about Tesla EVs.

I agree that fighting FUD is good. Advertising is not the way to do it.

 

[GhostSkater]

I'd be pretty shocked if they gave up a perfectly good supply of 18650s on the S/X and put 4680s, which are still in short supply and will continue to be for a while if they want to eventually move all 3/Y to structural packs- plus Cybertruck- into them.

I'm not aware of any folks who bought an S over a 3 primarily for range reasons... the higher lux features, air suspension, greater interior space, and obviously the existence of Plaid, seem to be the main differentiators there...

Some good points, specially on the cell supply

But I'm not saying they will ditch the current 18650 packs, that was never the plan with Plaid+

 

[betstarship]

Q (for the weekend) - how do you know if Tesla's execution to its mission is working?

For me: fewer climate-related disasters, much lower energy costs, resiliency in the grid to all sorts of disasters (e.g. climate, security, terrorism, etc.) + greater energy usage, and resiliency in transportation + infrastructure (e.g. roads, bridges, tunnels, etc.) to climate-related disasters.

 

[JRP3]

Add way faster charging due to the tabless electrode

Nope, as we've already covered, the bottleneck for charging speed is still the diffusion rate of the anode, not the tabs. What the tabless electrode design does accomplish is to mitigate what would otherwise be slower charging speeds of a larger cell form factor.

 

[AudubonB]

Poor poor man!! It's long away, from you I know but there are Superchargers in Alaska!

Alaska​

Soldotna, AK43540 Kleeb Loop Soldotna, AK 99669 Roadside Assistance : (877) 798-3752

Alaska​

Chugiak, AK
22211 Birchwood Loop Rd
8 stalls • 250 kW

I am, of course, aware of, have visited, and have posted about each of these. With a permissible amount of hyperbole I can state they are analogous to one hand clapping: you can't get anywhere with them.

Now superimpose a map solely of "Road Alaska" - that portion of our unimaginably vast state served by a network of interconnected roads - atop, say, the lower-48, western Europe, or eastern China. I'll do it verbally for you here: at 160,000 sq.mi. - without including that "string" leading up to Prudhoe Bay - it is the same size as California, or Germany plus Netherlands. Try driving there with only two Superchargers, each on opposite sides of Los Angeles, or San Francisco, or Berlin.

Alaskans are, in general, far far more cognizant of Tesla and Teslas than were, for example, the public in those examples in the prior paragraph in 2012, 2013 or 2014. Alaskans have a significantly greater amount of per capita disposable wealth than do those examples. There is real demand for Teslas...but now there is genuine and well-deserved animosity simply because of the cold shoulder Alaska has received. Tesla DID have the golden opportunity to use Alaska as a "If we can make it there, we can make it anywhere" example, but instead, what happened? Tesla used Norway and to a lesser extent New Zealand for its real-world winter road testing and....and this is something I never before ever have revealed...its so-called "test facility" in Alaska not only is a very, very cushy artificial track but, in absolute contradiction to DoD's agreement with Alaska never to permit use of its facilities and resources where a competing, private enterprise alternative exists, that test track is inside the Fort Greely Base (U.S. Army Cold Regions Test Center is its formal name). So not only has Tesla not developed the EV market here, but it utterly disdains...ignores...abuses the state's private sector. My heart sank when I first saw that footage Tesla released of their "Alaskan road-testing", as from the images I knew instantly exactly where it lies inside the military base. It really, really, really hurt.

Summary: Using Superchargers only, you can drive from Beijing or Shanghai to Mt. Everest Base Camp. Alaska? You can drive from Anchorage to either of those two chargers...and back.

Deplorable.

 

[totoro722]

I am, of course, aware of, have visited, and have posted about each of these. With a permissible amount of hyperbole I can state they are analogous to one hand clapping: you can't get anywhere with them.

Now superimpose a map of just "Road Alaska" - that portion of our unimaginably vast state served by the network of interconnected roads - atop, say, the lower-48, western Europe, or eastern China. I'll do it verbally for you here: at 160,000 sq.mi. - without including that "string" leading up to Prudhoe Bay - it is the same as California, or Germany plus Netherlands. Try driving there with just two Superchargers on opposite sides of Los Angeles, or San Francisco, or Berlin.

Alaskans are, in general, far far more cognizant of Tesla and Teslas than was, for example, those examples in the prior paragraph were in 2012, 2013 or 2014. Alaskans have a significantly greater amount of per capita disposable wealth than do those examples. There is real demand for Teslas...but now there is genuine and well-deserved animosity simply because of the cold shoulder Alaska has received. Tesla DID have the golden opportunity to use Alaska as a "If we can make it there, we can make it anywhere" example, but instead, what happened? Tesla used Norway and to a lesser extent New Zealand for its real-world road testing and....and this is something I never before ever have revealed...its so-called "test facility" in Alaska not only is a very, very cushy artificial track but, in absolute contradiction to DoD's agreement with Alaska never to use its facilities and resources where a competing, private enterprise alternative exists, that test track is inside the Fort Greely Air Base. So not only has Tesla not developed the EV market here, but it utterly disdains...ignores...abuses the state's private sector. My heart sank when I first saw that footage Tesla released of their "road-testing" inside the military base. It really, really, really hurt.

Summary: Using Superchargers only, you can drive from Beijing or Shanghai to Mt. Everest Base Camp. Alaska? You can drive to Anchorage to either of those two chargers...and back.

Deplorable.

Serious question. Where would you think Tesla should put Superchargers to create basic charging coverage for Alaska?