Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[loquitur]

NVDA killed earnings. 14% up AH. Let's hope we can get a little bit of that magic.

Rather more than that as of now (+26%), with knock-on effects for AMD and TMC,
other chip stocks that design or fab GPUs.

Right now Wall St. sees the need for more AI training farms, but recent summaries
(on Twitter) by Karpathy and friends show that you only need a single GPU to get
99% of GPT-4 performance, which is PC/cellphone territory.

 

[Southpasfan]

Just got the latest FSD beta (I have had FSD since 2019). The march towards it working without intervention seems inevitable to me.

But that's for the FSD thread, for the investment thread, have any of the great minds on here thought about how it would be monetized?

Right now, the monetization is the size of the fleet times purchase or subscription.

But its eventually going to be software that Tesla owns, and a computer and some cameras, and the hardware to control the vehicle. In other contexts you could see a company licensing the software, and becoming a software company.

I can't see turning my car into a robotaxi, but for sake of comparison I once noted that for the first 100k miles of a car, depending upon the cost of the car, it costs about 75K over five years, or 75 cents per mile.

A robo taxi could charge more than that, but for the owner, for me, it would be sending the car to pick up someone in the family, rather than having a second or third car.

The current pricing bought on a new car is up there with many other luxury features. The subscription is more intersting, because I can see people buying it for trips. But what is beyond that? Is there a "beyond that?"

 

[JRP3]

It many not be their personal experience at all, but simply a reflection of constant, consistent barrage of gaslighting by the media 24X7.

 

[amolina]

Pretty sure Dojo has been developed to be plug and play with ease. I recall something about musk bragging they plugged in some major public release of something 6 months back or something.

Helloo All,
With Large Language models taking the world by the storm, and NVDA having massive demand requirements. The world needs more GPU. Especially sitting in supercomputer clusters far away. Can somebody knowledgable comment about the latest state of DOJO? Tesla needs to provide more GPU farms. It is still GPU's in the end that can do dot products at an insane speed.

 

[wipster]

Well it's now quite obvious that Elontime applies on Twitter Spaces too...

 

[aronth5]

Are either of those states Tesla friendly? I don’t recall which states are still holdouts due to dealership laws. That could be why service centers are lacking.

New Hampshire is definitely friendly to Tesla having passed a bill in 2013 to allow auto manufacturers with no existing franchise dealer in the state to engage in direct sales. Couldn't find anything on Maine so don't believe there are restrictions.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Nvidia up 25% ($170B) AH and back to their ATH on this:
"On their face, Nvidia's numbers actually compared pretty poorly to those from 12 months ago. Revenue was down 13% year over year to $7.19 billion. Adjusted earnings of $1.09 per share were similarly off by 20% compared to the first quarter of last year. However, both numbers were higher than they were in the fourth quarter, and they exceeded what most investors had expected to see from Nvidia." The Motley Crew

O'K, test question, and spelling counts. Who is the CEO of Nvidia? No, I didn't think so.

Why invest in pepperoni when you can invest in the whole pizza?

 

[Singuy]

Nvidia up 25% ($170B) AH and back to their ATH on this:
"On their face, Nvidia's numbers actually compared pretty poorly to those from 12 months ago. Revenue was down 13% year over year to $7.19 billion. Adjusted earnings of $1.09 per share were similarly off by 20% compared to the first quarter of last year. However, both numbers were higher than they were in the fourth quarter, and they exceeded what most investors had expected to see from Nvidia." The Motley Crew

O'K, test question, and spelling counts. Who is the CEO of Nvidia? No, I didn't think so.

Why invest in pepperoni when you can invest in the whole pizza?

Jenson is pretty well known in the tech space.

Also they are not up 25% due to their earnings, it was due to the most monstruous guide we have ever seen in tech space. They guided for next Q to have 60% higher revenue at 70% gross margin. QOQ growth of 60 freaken %. Guidance like this will give the company a re-rating.

That's like Tesla guiding Q2 to sell 700k cars after years of incremental ups and downs.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

You think Tesla has LOW earnings growth?

Based on what, only the 01Q23 report? You're as bad as GOJO at cherry picking data. Everyone knows the 1st quarter is always lower in the automotive industry.

Tesla earnings YoY are down.

2023 EPS is expected to be flat vs 2022.

That's.... not cherry picking data.

Now Tesla will undoubtedly grow earnings again eventually, but you can't expect Wallstreet to totally ignore flat growth.

Meanwhile, Nvidia had low / negative growth before, and now is having massive growth.

Why on earth would anyone think they deserve the same PE ratio?

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla earnings YoY are down.

Bullshit

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Q1 2022 Net Income (non-GAAP): 3.736 billion
Q1 2023 Net Income (non-GAAP): 2.931 billion

 

[Singuy]

Tesla earnings YoY are down.

2023 EPS is expected to be flat vs 2022.

That's.... not cherry picking data.

Now Tesla will undoubtedly grow earnings again eventually, but you can't expect Wallstreet to totally ignore flat growth.

Meanwhile, Nvidia had low / negative growth before, and now is having massive growth.

Why on earth would anyone think they deserve the same PE ratio?

Nvidia was awarded a high PE way before today's earnings. Before today, they had pretty beaten up earnings due to the crypto crash, high inventory, and Biden banning their AI chips for China consumption.

The forward looking market didn't care after ChatGTP being the first glimpse of something that's useful and tangible from AI. So the market bid up Nvidia naturally.

Tesla has a lot of sleepers not fully priced in because valuations are awarded in moments.
That moment they see Tesla being profitable gave it a re-rating
Now when Tesla's FSD becomes that ChatGTP moment then it's another re-rating
Margin increasing through all the savings Tesla have been advertising to shareholders will result in another
Optimus working is another


So right now Tesla is in limbo as they are working through all the problems on their plate, kind of like 2018/2019 as they were trying to get to profitability.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Nvidia was awarded a high PE way before today's earnings. Before today, they had pretty beaten up earnings due to the crypto crash, high inventory, and Biden banning their AI chips.

The forward looking market didn't care after ChatGTP being the first glimpse of something that's useful and tangible from AI. So the market bid up Nvidia naturally.

Tesla has a lot of sleepers not fully priced in because valuations are awarded in moments.
That moment they see Tesla being profitable gave it a re-rating
Now when Tesla's FSD becomes that ChatGTP moment then it's another re-rating
Margin increasing through all the savings Tesla have been advertising to shareholders will result in another
Optimus working is another


So right now Tesla is in limbo as they are working through all the problems on their plate, kind of like 2018/2019 as they were trying to get profitability.

Agreed Tesla has a lot of sleeper not fully priced in (not even close). I expect stock above $400 by end of 2024 once interest rates come down and Energy ramps and FSD L2 revenues goes up. But can expect a high value based on future when current profit growth (even temporary) is anemic.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q1 2022 Net Income (non-GAAP): 3.736 billion
Q1 2023 Net Income (non-GAAP): 2.931 billion

Congrats on using the only quarter for the past 2+ years that paints Tesla's EPS in a bad light. Gonna love to see what you do for an encore for Q2 and Q3 where Tesla's earnings were significantly lower than Q1 2022's earnings.

I guess you're already making the proclamation that Tesla's Q2 and Q3's earnings will be materially lower than Q1 2023 because otherwise, ya know, you'd kinda be so obvious in your bias by cherry picking a single quarter and ignoring the current quarter

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Congrats on using the only quarter for the past 2+ years that paints Tesla's EPS in a bad light. Gonna love to see what you do for an encore for Q2 and Q3 where Tesla's earnings were significantly lower than Q1 2022's earnings.

I guess you're already making the proclamation that Tesla's Q2 and Q3's earnings will be materially lower than Q1 2023 because otherwise, ya know, you'd kinda be so obvious in your bias by cherry picking a single quarter and ignoring the current quarter

YoY will be fine for Q2 because of Shanghai shutdown last year, but market already knows that.

Q2 may easily be lower EPS than Q1. In fact analysts are currently expecting it to be ~10% lower.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

See Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.

finance.yahoo.com

That is likely because there were more price cuts into Q2 than Q1. You would have to hope COGs somehow goes down even more to counter.

I have no idea on Q3, depends on interest rates.

But please tell me how I'm cherry picking when analysts are currently projecting decreasing profits QoQ, when Q2 from Q1 should cyclically be an increase?

Again, why would you think the market would apply some high PE value to a stock that's currently flat / negative earnings growth?

 

[bkp_duke]

Q1 2022 Net Income (non-GAAP): 3.736 billion
Q1 2023 Net Income (non-GAAP): 2.931 billion

CapEx for 2023 vs. 2022 is supposed to be ~2B higher.

DETAILS matter.

You are cherry picking, and you know it.

Are you going to be singing praises for Q2 2023 when earnings are a SMASH HIT above last year due to China lockdowns stopping GF Shanghai? Probably not.

A more reasonable metric would be Trailing Twelve Months.

Quoting net income on a company re-investing in itself to build 3 Gigafactories, 2 Megafactories, a massive supercharger network, and deep deep R&D to try to sell your take as a company slowing down is disingenuous. It's a flat out lie.

 

[Ogre]

A more reasonable metric would be Trailing Twelve Months.

This is almost always the most reasonable way to look at a company. Cherry pickers love to compare short term bumps and shifts as if they are super relevant.

 

[GatorMeat]

So odd. When I was at my service center to get a CCS upgrade, they offered to let me take the demo plaid S or model Y for lunch. I didn’t even ask for a test drive. I turned them down since I had already eaten. (Model X was being driven by someone else at the moment.)

My closest service center (Pensacola) doesn't even have a waiting room. You literally are instructed to leave the keycard in the car and take an Uber. They also don't have test vehicles, I have to drive 8 hours roundtrip to Jacksonville for that. And if you don't believe me, I have the text from the sales person at the factory that I am only allowed to test one vehicle. This was in April

 

[GatorMeat]

Before you start salivating, you might want to read more carefully. It was the ridiculous claim that Tesla wouldn’t let the person test drive two different vehicles, an X and a Y, but rather only one of them that I responded to - not the other post about SuperChargers. If you can’t smell the lie in that, then I have a great stock opportunity for you called Nikola Motor. And once a new member posts such a fabrication, anything they post thereafter is immediately suspect for obvious reasons.

Secondly, despite your attempt to negatively frame my personal choice to predominately keep criticism of Tesla between me and Tesla (just as I do for other companies I have done business with), I still won’t be changing because of anything you say, suggest, imply or otherwise. So you just keep on believing that your vocal criticism and negativity makes you a better poster and person.

Funny I'm labeled a bear. I said nothing of $TSLA. Just giving my situation of living 2 hours (4-hr round trip) from nearest service and why that's bad for future sales. I owned Lexus for over a decade prior to Tesla, but I had Toyota 20 minutes away for service. Mobile service was only offered to me once when I first purchased in 2018 and the dude showed up in cargo shorts and a t-shirt. My last 2 service trips required me to travel as mobile wasn't able to handle the issue, or isn't available. Who knows with Telsa. I see dozens every day, so I bet many will be upset when they do need service and have to drive 4 hours.

 

[GatorMeat]

It's not ridiculous. Limiting test drives to one model is a thing that actually happens. Demo vehicles and advisors are a limited resource.
Short notice, unscheduled test drives are also a thing, but we did that long ago (got lucky they had time when we dropped in).
Working the system, if there are two drivers, they might each be able to schedule a drive, but be prepared to be split up.

It is 100% ridiculous to tell a current owner they can't drive the X and the Y. I have to drive 4 hours to go test the damn car, and you're telling me I can only test one? Great way to treat a customer that wants to make a potential $100k+ purchase.