Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

UP NEXT: S25 and B9...

Starship | First Integrated Flight Test | Recap | SpaceX videos on Youtube (1 day ago)

 

[madodel]

Hmm

Or a perfect time to burn the shorts.

Not an advice or a prediction.

Nothing like the smell of shorts burning in the morning, and afternoon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ford embracing the Tesla network, and its CEO being very gracious and enthusiastic about Tesla will have turned quite a few peoples heads with the realization that “oh *sugar*, Tesla is here to stay”. Ford has added massive legitimacy to Tesla (and TSLA) in those peoples minds.

Same thing happened when Hertz announced the purchase of $4B worth of Tesla cars for their rental fleet (Oct 25, 2021). TSLA was at just below $300/share (split-adjusted) when the Hertz news broke.

That bump lasted 2 weeks, but was clawed back fully within 2 months as Walle moved on to their next FUD story.

 

[unk45]

…It just never happened for Tesla as sales seemed to increase with a 6 year old platform…

Visually all four production Tesla cars look the same. Factually the Model Y under the skin is a totally different car than it was six years ago. Gigacasting, structural packs, different batteries and on, and on. Any person driving in a 2012 S85 and a 2023 S will not the anything in common except looks.

since so many people seem to think ‘updates’ equate to changing looks, it seems Tesla can only copy ICE and change the looks without changing the car./s I hope, i don’t want to think we’re that shallow. Of course changing the Model S from fake ICE to a smooth front seemed only cosmetic, but that reduced parts count from dozens to a dozen, counting fasteners.

 

[unk45]

The more I immerse myself into the market and its mechanisms, as well as TSLA's price action, the more I believe that a lot of the artifacts that people on this forum attribute to manipulation are in fact attributable to TSLA's gigantic options market.

It's the options tail wagging the equity dog.

Yep! The biggest tool of market maker manipulation and speculator fervor is options.
”in fact” you forgot who the manipulators are in that gigantic market.

 

[cliff harris]

Question from a noob.
What hardware FSD needs to perform? To gather data, HW3 or 4 with 8 cameras, etc.
But to make the car go? the same hardware? does it need cameras?
Could Tesla really license FSD to different cars as of now?

Im no expert, from what I understand, Teslas software is not *that* dependent on a specific arrangement of cameras and locations for them (which is very good news). There is the code that is doing the fusion of all the video streams, which would be specific to each vehicle type (and thus different for model S/X, 3/Y and cybertruck, but the majority of the 'magic' is in object recognition, and route-planning/vehicle-control.

So I think if (for example) Ford wanted to license the FSD tech, Tesla could absolutely sell them the FSD chip, and would have to just integrate the positioning and numebr of cameras a ford had installed. I susptect Tesla have very firm constraints on the output format for those cameras, but would be flexible otherwise.

FSD cannot be hard-coded to specific camera hardware or location, or it would need re-developing for each Tesla vehicle, which is clearly not happening. Its all about object recognition, and reaction.

TLR; Tesla could totally license FSD hardware and software to 3rd parties.

 

[Singuy]

Same thing happened when Hertz announced the purchase of $4B worth of Tesla cars for their rental fleet (Oct 25, 2021). TSLA was at just below $300/share (split-adjusted) when the Hertz news broke.

That bump lasted 2 weeks, but was clawed back fully within 2 months as Walle moved on to their next FUD story.

View attachment 941533

Let's hope Elon is not in the mood to pay more taxes again.

 

[Buckminster]

Im no expert, from what I understand, Teslas software is not *that* dependent on a specific arrangement of cameras and locations for them (which is very good news). There is the code that is doing the fusion of all the video streams, which would be specific to each vehicle type (and thus different for model S/X, 3/Y and cybertruck, but the majority of the 'magic' is in object recognition, and route-planning/vehicle-control.

So I think if (for example) Ford wanted to license the FSD tech, Tesla could absolutely sell them the FSD chip, and would have to just integrate the positioning and numebr of cameras a ford had installed. I susptect Tesla have very firm constraints on the output format for those cameras, but would be flexible otherwise.

FSD cannot be hard-coded to specific camera hardware or location, or it would need re-developing for each Tesla vehicle, which is clearly not happening. Its all about object recognition, and reaction.

TLR; Tesla could totally license FSD hardware and software to 3rd parties.

Super bull view:

Options are:

1. Light
   1. Tesla licence FSD to Ford for $10k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $20k but use is limited to private use only
2. Medium
   1. Tesla licence FSD for $20k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $30k and can use privately or on Uber etc. as a robotaxi
3. Heavy
   1. Tesla licence FSD for $30k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $50k and can use privately or on Tesla Network only as a robotaxi

3. is the only option where Tesla is properly compensated. I'm not even super comfortable with 3 as it dilutes the Tesla Network brand.
2. and 3. both meet the mission so I can see Elon reluctantly going ahead.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let's hope Elon is not in the mood to pay more taxes again.

When has that ever mattered to hedgies? They use whatever is at hand, regardless of how banal or insignificant. Aided and enabled by their unlimited ability to spoof the law of supply'n'demand for shares via the Options Market Makers exemption from the prohibition against naked short shelling selling.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Super bull view:

Options are:

1. Light
   1. Tesla licence FSD to Ford for $10k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $20k

Why on Earth would Tesla give Ford a 50% cut of FSD sales after a 7+ yr slog to develop the product? (likely 10+ yrs to wide adoption)

Why did Elon call the Apple Store's 30% markup on App downloads the "Apple Tax"? Indeed, why did Elon tell Apple that if they taxed their App, then Tesla would make a phone? We're not talking some puny handful of Billion$ here, we're talking BIG MONEY.

Are you suggesting Elon would agree to a "Ford Tax" 60% higher than Apple's? Ha! How about a $20 One-time transaction fee for purchases, or 1% for monthly subscriptions...

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Super bull view:

Options are:

1. Light
   1. Tesla licence FSD to Ford for $10k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $20k but use is limited to private use only
2. Medium
   1. Tesla licence FSD for $20k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $30k and can use privately or on Uber etc. as a robotaxi
3. Heavy
   1. Tesla licence FSD for $30k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $50k and can use privately or on Tesla Network only as a robotaxi

3. is the only option where Tesla is properly compensated. I'm not even super comfortable with 3 as it dilutes the Tesla Network brand.
2. and 3. both meet the mission so I can see Elon reluctantly going ahead.

I think it's likely it'll be a one time payment up front and then subscription pricing. Something like $5,000 + $200/month. The monthly subscription pricing for fsd would be huge. By 2030 if auto sales are 100 million vehicles annually you can extrapolate profits against whatever you think is the percentage take-rate for other auto companies to license fsd.

 

[Buckminster]

Why on Earth would Tesla give Ford a 50% cut of FSD sales after a 7+ yr slog to develop the product? (likely 10+ yrs to wide adoption)

Why did Elon call the Apple Store's 30% markup on App downloads the "Apple Tax"? Indeed, why did Elon tell Apple that if they taxed their App, then Tesla would make a phone? We're not talking some puny handful of Billion$ here, we're talking BIG MONEY.

Are you suggesting Elon would agree to a "Ford Tax" 60% higher than Apple's? Ha! How about a $20 One-time transaction fee for purchases, or 1% for monthly subscriptions...

Your are referring to my option 1. I did say that 3. was the only one that I would consider. I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking like this. I would be happy for Tesla to salt the earth behind them.

In Option 1. I'm assuming that Ford would pay for the hardware and therefore it wouldn't be an apple tax.

 

[EQC_]

Visually all four production Tesla cars look the same. Factually the Model Y under the skin is a totally different car than it was six years ago. Gigacasting, structural packs, different batteries and on, and on. Any person driving in a 2012 S85 and a 2023 S will not the anything in common except looks.

since so many people seem to think ‘updates’ equate to changing looks, it seems Tesla can only copy ICE and change the looks without changing the car./s

You're totally right, and the "Tesla needs to update their cars!" argument I see on other sites drives me nuts.

Thinking about the S, I think that the only thing that's the same on the current model vs. 2012 is the silhouette and maybe the exterior door panels, front hood, and rear hatch. Everything else has gone through multiple upgrades and revisions in 11 years: batteries, motors, suspension, interior seats/console/floor/door cards/dash, front headlights and bumper/grill, roof design/material, rear tail lights and bumper/diffuser, infotainment screen and computer, autopilot and fsd hardware, steering wheel, wheels and tires, glass, internal crash and other structures, range/performance/handling/efficiency/weight all improved drastically. Plus all the software improvements.

I would bet that the S has changed more in 11 years than just about any other car when measured in things that actually affect the user experience. But, because it has the same silhouette and Tesla doesn't add or change pointless creases and fake plastic vents every few years, journalists and bloggers and commenters call it an "aging platform."

So, whenever I see an article or comment pointing out "Tesla's aging lineup" I really just think "that writer really values pointless creases and fake plastic vents!" They probably gush over a "new" Toyonda Camcord because it has 7 extra horsepower, is 0.5 inches longer (so much more roomy!), and most importantly has a new grill and differently bent up sheet metal so it looks distinct from a 5-year older version even when squinting through fog from 100 yards away. Yippee!

 

[y_naught]

My former MBA prof in product launch and strategy reached out to me and just gave me a huge pep talk.

Here's some thoughts:

1. Tesla is going to become an aggregator in short order across 5 2030 trillion dollar industries: ai, robotics, vehicles, batteries, solar.
2. It's going to develop giant monopolies in all of those industries.
3. The nervous system of oil&gas and our energy consumption, transport, and utilization lifecycle is being ripped apart and infused with clean tech. We're living through it, but it definitely feels like a managed transition that's entirely dependent on everyone working together to make that happen based on this old system...of everything...to make the new one.
4. Systems of everything are going to change fundamentally and be infused with a clean energy consumption, transport, and utilization lifecycle that's drastically more efficient and abundant than ever before.
5. This is going to cause humanity to push past a sustainable Earth and to the stars, if done right.
6. Maybe the economy is the same as it was previously, but its going to be an economy based on abundance. Not resource starvation like it was, inherently, with a starved resource like fossil fuels. It's just different, so you need to think differently.

Everything said right now by most influencers is bs IMO (lots of noise, little signal), but real at the same time because so many are doing so well and there's just so much wealth generation.

My 2 cents!

This is interesting. I’m not sure I would use “aggregator” as much as “integrator” but there may be specific definitions I’m not aware of. I also see it as 3 industries of I don’t know how big: AI, robotics and energy. Vehicles are/have become a subset of robotics. Solar and batteries are the two side of energy. The integration comes from AI powering the intelligence of the robotics, and energy powering the physical Robots. AI also maximizes the integration and efficiency among them.

And I totally agree with the wealth generation!

 

[y_naught]

Super bull view:

Options are:

1. Light
   1. Tesla licence FSD to Ford for $10k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $20k but use is limited to private use only
2. Medium
   1. Tesla licence FSD for $20k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $30k and can use privately or on Uber etc. as a robotaxi
3. Heavy
   1. Tesla licence FSD for $30k per vehicle
   2. Customers buy FSD for $50k and can use privately or on Tesla Network only as a robotaxi

3. is the only option where Tesla is properly compensated. I'm not even super comfortable with 3 as it dilutes the Tesla Network brand.
2. and 3. both meet the mission so I can see Elon reluctantly going ahead.

How possible will it be to place FSD into a non-Tesla designed car? Tesla knows, like created, the exact specs of every component and system. To certify a third-party car would seem to be very laborious for Tesla. Maybe I am underestimating how good the FSD AI will be in monitoring and reacting to conditions with only vision input, but I think there is lots of other car data coming in also?

 

[Ipcress]

How possible will it be to place FSD into a non-Tesla designed car? Tesla knows, like created, the exact specs of every component and system. To certify a third-party car would seem to be very laborious for Tesla. Maybe I am underestimating how good the FSD AI will be in monitoring and reacting to conditions with only vision input, but I think there is lots of other car data coming in also?

When FSD becomes a reality, I think Tesla will not license it for a period of years to reap maximum value as a unique attribute of Tesla vehicles. Then, maybe a license to other OEM's. As with the Ford supercharger deal, OEM's will need to update their cars hardware (camera/sensor suite) and software systems to allow FSD integration--a big lift. Might as well have Tesla supply the whole car software. Hey, wait a minute...!

 

[betstarship]

This is interesting. I’m not sure I would use “aggregator” as much as “integrator” but there may be specific definitions I’m not aware of. I also see it as 3 industries of I don’t know how big: AI, robotics and energy. Vehicles are/have become a subset of robotics. Solar and batteries are the two side of energy. The integration comes from AI powering the intelligence of the robotics, and energy powering the physical Robots. AI also maximizes the integration and efficiency among them.

And I totally agree with the wealth generation!

I hear you! To me, "aggregator" suggests that the company commoditizes a previously saturated market and opens up to new tech that opens up several markets in a completely new field. "Integrator" is a company that creates and distributes products that is used by other companies in the same or similar field.

Also, should explain from that post: I use bombastic terms like "will" as if it suggest that I know if something's going to happen, but that's me hoping it will and looking at it from a probabilistic sense for the best case scenario. It's kinda like writing an investment memo for TSLA. There's risks attached to averting climate change such as failing at the transition and, thus, needing to adapt to a changing climate which many don't talk about. Personally, this is where Neuralink comes in I think...in a sense that we ride along with AI towards a de-risked path of the end of human civilization.

It's still wild we're talking about all of this stuff after a 10-12 year bull run, but we're all living through the transition now.

 

[KBF]

https://fordauthority.com/2023/05/2024-ford-f-150-will-have-2400-fewer-parts/

^Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Ford at least trying to avoid bankruptcy via reducing complexity. Tesla's example may actually save the auto industry - it certainly is leaving other auto makers without a real excuse. Adapt or die... Or keep "leading" by getting bailouts for incompetence, Mary.

Edit: to connect this to the market - this has been a dumb criticism of Tesla in the past - not enough options. But an established company trying to catch up with Tesla's simplicity suggests that at least some CEO's think their approach is wise. I don't think this moves stock price on its own, since most investors seem to be terrible at extrapolation but to me Tesla's drive to simplify has been a strong positive marker for my analysis. If Ford follows, though, maybe the 'herd' will notice and realize Tesla's advantage.

 

[Skryll]

Will Tesla eventually buy Ford?

As a Museum ?

 

[Ocelot]

Signs Tesla is taking meaningful steps to autonomy (NOT Elon's random Twitter milestones):

1) Tesla starts announcing disengagement rates (instead of the almost-useless "total FSD miles driven" stat)

2) Tesla starts counting "autonomy miles" to send to regulators

3) Tesla tells regulators that FSD (or a subset version of it) is now being considered for L4 and is seeking approval for those testing miles on the road

4) Tesla FSD community tracker goes from 1 critical intervention every 50 miles to every 500, then 5000, then 50,000, then 500,000. Once it gets to 50,000 we MIGHT be able to start pinpointing a timeline.

Note that #4 might get nullified by #1 if there's proof that an overwhelming % of disengagements right now are from people who are just uncomfortable with a certain situation vs. "ya this woulda killed me otherwise." No ideea how to quantify that so not gonna try.

I fully agree. With number one being super important. How can you say anything about safety and accident rates comparing FSD to a person driving when in reality you are comparing a hybrid system ( FSD plus human) to a human. It s positive, reverse FUD.