Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

IIRC, only V3 superchargers are capable of the CCS protocol to communicate with EVs. V3 can also communicate with Tesla's proprietary protocol, which is needed for older Tesla's that are not CCS capable. V2 superchargers only have Tesla's proprietary protocol, IIRC.

For some reason, it seems like Tesla is not interested in updating V2 superchargers, and I doubt Tesla or Ford would want to use Tesla's protocol on Ford vehicles. I speculate this is the reason only V3 superchargers will be open to Ford.

I do expect the V2 superchargers to go away at some point. They will be uneconomical to maintain, and replaced with V4 or later superchargers.

GSP

Just curious why Tesla does not seem to have issues with CCS type 1? There are some YouTubers claiming there is a lot of ambiguity in the communication protocol and some vehicle manufacturers/charger manufacturers have implemented in slightly different ways.

I think we all understand why the superchargers are so reliable with Tesla's, but is there a chance there will be issues with some vehicle types. For the few they have implemented with magic dock I have not heard of issues so far. Does a Tesla with the CCS circuit use this protocol when charging at a supercharger or is this just there to charge with a CCS adaptor?

 

[wipster]

Brazil is CCS2 (Europe one) and CHadeMo, Teslas here use a CCS2 to Tesla adapter to fast charge, because importing from Europe is way more expensive

There are no Superchargers here, and a few "fast chargers" and even less fast chargers, so I would guess they would ship with CCS2 since it's a port that will be used for Europe anyway. Or Tesla will try to force NACS here, which would be awesome since there is barely infrastructure in place

Plugshare doesn't have all chargers, but take a look filter by power to see the (dire) state. To make things better, one of the highway rest areas chain that has many units is removing it's chargers

Don't buy a Cybertruck here if you plan to roadtrip a lot lol

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To make it better, doing the same with openchargemap.org, 250 kW is the same as Plugshare

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Thanks for info @GhostSkater!

 

[hobbes]

Brazil is CCS2 (Europe one) and CHadeMo, Teslas here use a CCS2 to Tesla adapter to fast charge, because importing from Europe is way more expensive

There are no Superchargers here, and a few "fast chargers" and even less fast chargers, so I would guess they would ship with CCS2 since it's a port that will be used for Europe anyway. Or Tesla will try to force NACS here, which would be awesome since there is barely infrastructure in place

Plugshare doesn't have all chargers, but take a look filter by power to see the (dire) state. To make things better, one of the highway rest areas chain that has many units is removing it's chargers

Don't buy a Cybertruck here if you plan to roadtrip a lot lol

View attachment 941700
View attachment 941701
View attachment 941702

To make it better, doing the same with openchargemap.org, 250 kW is the same as Plugshare

View attachment 941704
View attachment 941706

I can assure you Europe is CCS2 also. This map gives a good overview:

Ladeanschlüsse weltweit: CCS1, CCS2, Typ 2, GB/T und mehr

Ladeanschlüsse für Elektroautos sind weltweit sehr verschieden: CCS1 herrscht in Nordamerika vor, CCS2 in Europa. Wir erklären die Systeme.

insideevs.de

 

[MP3Mike]

Just curious why Tesla does not seem to have issues with CCS type 1? There are some YouTubers claiming there is a lot of ambiguity in the communication protocol and some vehicle manufacturers/charger manufacturers have implemented in slightly different ways.

I think we all understand why the superchargers are so reliable with Tesla's, but is there a chance there will be issues with some vehicle types. For the few they have implemented with magic dock I have not heard of issues so far.

There have been reports of some problems at MagicDocks with Hyundia/Kia Iconic5/EV6 vehicles. Though I think people reported that it usually works after a few attempts. I, also, think I heard that the vehicles that have been to the dealer to get the update that contains battery preconditioning haven't had any issues. So it may have been fully a Hyundia/Kia issue, that has been resolved. (The only problem being is that people would have to take their car to a dealer to get the update, as they don't have OTA capability for that update.)

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

There have been reports of some problems at MagicDocks with Hyundia/Kia Iconic5/EV6 vehicles. Though I think people reported that it usually works after a few attempts. I, also, think I heard that the vehicles that have been to the dealer to get the update that contains battery preconditioning haven't had any issues. So it may have been fully a Hyundia/Kia issue, that has been resolved. (The only problem being is that people would have to take their car to a dealer to get the update, as they don't have OTA capability for that update.)

Although for most people getting to a Hyundai or Kia dealer shouldn't be a 200 mile drive.

 

[JRP3]

This is the stuff that make me think there is tons of work still to be done and we might be far

Indeed. Don't expect robotaxis for years.

 

[GhostSkater]

Indeed. Don't expect robotaxis for years.

Yeah, unless for some reason there is a breakthrough like when all is being controlled by NN and that suddenly it get's good in all

I remember James Douma telling that years ago on NoA he had multiple problems in a route he did often, revision after revision and none were fixed, until on a major revision that was a big overhaul of the system everything got solved at once, while I don't see that happening since city streets is way more complex, we can hope

 

[madodel]

Electric vehicles have an efficiency problem

Why it matters: EVs are extraordinarily heavy, and the larger their batteries, the heavier they become. That makes them more dangerous, increases pollution, minimizes decarbonization, and locks in a geopolitically fraught reliance on China.

This is the kind of nonsense that gasheads read and use to attack BEVs. Basically because there isn't enough raw materials now, people should give up and just buy hybrids.

 

[JRP3]

Electric vehicles have an efficiency problem



This is the kind of nonsense that gasheads read and use to attack BEVs. Basically because there isn't enough raw materials now, people should give up and just buy hybrids.

"extraordinarily heavy", Model 3's weigh about the same as BMW 3 series.

 

[totoro722]

Electric vehicles have an efficiency problem



This is the kind of nonsense that gasheads read and use to attack BEVs. Basically because there isn't enough raw materials now, people should give up and just buy hybrids.

Can you supply a link to that article? I would like to read it.

 

[winfield100]

Can you supply a link to that article? I would like to read it.

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/27/electric-vehicles-carbon-emissions

 

[totoro722]

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/27/electric-vehicles-carbon-emissions

Wow. That should be labeled as an ad for Toyota.

 

[winfield100]

Wow. That should be labeled as an ad for Toyota.

you cannot comment, you cannot rebut author, useless article

 

[betstarship]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662617069396054017

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662617069396054017

Pikachu shock face

 

[Papafox]

As far as I know, at 3.30pm, Robin Hood starts automatically closing out long options that are ITM and where the associated account does not have the buying power to exercise the option (which we can assume is most RH accounts since the average RH account size is ~$2.5k and TSLA options trade with a 100 multiple, i.e. even a call option with a $50 strike will require an account balance of $5k to be exercised)

Given the facts that
(a) TSLA's option market is by far the largest;
(b) a lot of retail traders gamble in TSLA options;
(c) there has been a substantial runup in TSLA this week;
(d) upon sell-to-close, the market makers need to unwind the hedges they had entered into to remain delta neutral (i.e., sell the shares they had bought to be able to deliver them should the option holder exercise);
(e) this being a predictable and thus tradeable signal (will happen every options expiration date around 3.30pm), inviting algo traders to frontrun the expected dump by shorting ahead of the 3.30pm mark;
(f) other call option holders, upon recognizing the fast decrease in price, decide to close out their long option positions, thus further adding to the downwards pressure, along with equity daytraders who were long after the runup today and likely had trailing stop losses set;

a case can be made that this behavior is by design and not manipulation.

The higher the MM's exposure (i.e. the higher the accumulated delta for all the options being liquidated is), the sharper the dump should be. Due to the substantial runup in TSLA, a lot of outstanding options went from OTM to ITM, substantially increasing the delta that the MMs had to warehouse (like a sponge).

Happy weekend
Max

Thanks for the information about Robin Hood. I agree with another post of yours where you say that the options are so large at TSLA that often the options tail wags the stock dog. I also agree that a pushdown in the final half hour of TSLA trading on a Friday can set in motion lots of other activities that can further depress the stock price.

Where I differ is the contention that RobinHood closing out ITM options for many of its members starting at 3:30pm is the primary cause of a strong dip into close such as we saw on this Friday. You suggest traders will anticipate this RobinHood event and may preemptively sell prior in order to front run. I just looked at the most recent previous 4 weeks of Friday closings by browsing through past posts at my Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts thread. Of the previous 4 closings of TSLA on Fridays, only 1 of the 4 showed any noticeable dip during the final half hour. For this reason, I suggest that traders who are front-running an expected dip on Fridays will likely not fare well and will in time stop doing so. This Friday's dip in the final half hour was severe and I will keep an open mind to this RobinHood phenomenon next time we see a Friday closing with the stock up $18 above max pain at some point.

As for @EVNow 's contention that those of us who believe in market maker manipulations are conspiracy theorists, so be it. I wear that dubious title with pride. I watched Citadel make unGodly amounts of money in the quarter when TSLA sank to nearly $100/share. In fact, I'm a conspiracy theorist on a lot of issues here with TSLA. I believe that the mainstream media unfairly depicts Tesla, both because they get more clicks for doing so and because their advertisers who pay them money are harmed by Tesla's success. I believe that auto dealerships conspire on the state level with local legislators to unfair reduce Tesla's ability to do business in certain states. I believe that legislation on the national level (such as the IRA) is often written in a fashion to specifically help Tesla's competitors relative to Tesla. I believe that big oil is no friend of Tesla and is spending money behind the scenes to slow down Tesla's progress whenever possible. I believe that "analysts" such as Gordon Johnson aren't just incompetent with what they say about Tesla, they are actually trying to hurt Tesla and someone is likely rewarding them for it.

I'm a conspiracy theorist because, well... there are conspiracies out there.

 

[madodel]

Thanks for the information about Robin Hood. I agree with another post of yours where you say that the options are so large at TSLA that often the options tail wags the stock dog. I also agree that a pushdown in the final half hour of TSLA trading on a Friday can set in motion lots of other activities that can further depress the stock price.

Where I differ is the contention that RobinHood closing out ITM options for many of its members starting at 3:30pm is the primary cause of a strong dip into close such as we saw on this Friday. You suggest traders will anticipate this RobinHood event and may preemptively sell prior in order to front run. I just looked at the most recent previous 4 weeks of Friday closings by browsing through past posts at my Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts thread. Of the previous 4 closings of TSLA on Fridays, only 1 of the 4 showed any noticeable dip during the final half hour. For this reason, I suggest that traders who are front-running an expected dip on Fridays will likely not fare well and will in time stop doing so. This Friday's dip in the final half hour was severe and I will keep an open mind to this RobinHood phenomenon next time we see a Friday closing with the stock up $18 above max pain at some point.

As for @EVNow 's contention that those of us who believe in market maker manipulations are conspiracy theorists, so be it. I wear that dubious title with pride. I watched Citadel make unGodly amounts of money in the quarter when TSLA sank to nearly $100/share. In fact, I'm a conspiracy theorist on a lot of issues here with TSLA. I believe that the mainstream media unfairly depicts Tesla, both because they get more clicks for doing so and because their advertisers who pay them money are harmed by Tesla's success. I believe that auto dealerships conspire on the state level with local legislators to unfair reduce Tesla's ability to do business in certain states. I believe that legislation on the national level (such as the IRA) is often written in a fashion to specifically help Tesla's competitors relative to Tesla. I believe that big oil is no friend of Tesla and is spending money behind the scenes to slow down Tesla's progress whenever possible. I believe that "analysts" such as Gordon Johnson aren't just incompetent with what they say about Tesla, they are actually trying to hurt Tesla and someone is likely rewarding them for it.

I'm a conspiracy theorist because, well... there are conspiracies out there.

It's not paranoia if they are really out to get you.

 

[Singuy]

Yeah, unless for some reason there is a breakthrough like when all is being controlled by NN and that suddenly it get's good in all

I remember James Douma telling that years ago on NoA he had multiple problems in a route he did often, revision after revision and none were fixed, until on a major revision that was a big overhaul of the system everything got solved at once, while I don't see that happening since city streets is way more complex, we can hope

Map data fixes so many issues and no update are required. Infact all of our cars are doing different things, most for the better recently without any updates. I have lanes that always caused an intervention now works on the hwy, a road that will always have a slow down to zero even though there are no stop signs now work with no problem.

There are two things controlling self driving, fsd deals with perception and behavior while there are major map data that either updates in real time or once in a long while in the back ground no one even realize is happening.

So when it comes to fsd, we need to watch for improvements on decision making and dangerous maneuvers. Lane selection is guided by the map data that updates without an update.

 

[GhostSkater]

Map data fixes so many issues and no update are required. Infact all of our cars are doing different things, most for the better recently without any updates. I have lanes that always caused an intervention now works on the hwy, a road that will always have a slow down to zero even though there are no stop signs now work with no problem.

There are two things controlling self driving, fsd deals with perception and behavior while there are major map data that either updates in real time or once in a long while in the back ground no one even realize is happening.

So when it comes to fsd, we need to watch for improvements on decision making and dangerous maneuvers. Lane selection is guided by the map data that updates without an update.

This is the duality of map data

It helps a lot when it's good, but when it's wrong it totally sucks, and for Robotaxi they need to be able to figured out the map data is bad and ignore it, not slam in the breaks AFTER entering a roundabout

 

[Chunky Jr.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662617069396054017

coming soon...