Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

This is not really a reply to the above post (which is spot on BTW), but more to get your insight.

As I am quite ignorant of the type(s) of charge connectors used in Brazil (and South America in general), do you think the Gen3 vehicles built at GigaMex and shipped to Brazil will be equipped with NACS and use adaptors for CCS etc.? And since there are very few superchargers in Brazil currently, would a build out done concurrently (or prior) to Gen3 rollout basically help make NASC the South American standard as well as (potentially) North American?

An inexpensive, quality BEV that comes with it's own fueling stations could be huge! Would love to hear your valued input on this as you're very knowledgeable about things down under...

Brasil now uses CCS2 and probably will not easily change despite the tiny infrastructure today.
OTOH, were Tesla and Ford both want the Tesla connector (if it’s not called North America Charging Standard) so long as they’d make major Mercosur investments and specifically Brasil also.
OTOH they’d most likely do better with CCS2 and major local investment in exchange for tax advantages, so maintaining present commonality with the EU.

only my opinions…not necessarily correct. FWIW I personally don’t mind CCS except in the US where maintenance is so very poor and users so frequently break the connectors. The existing few in Brasil seem to be well maintained, I have not yet found an inoperative charger in my two years with a BEV in Rio de Janeiro. However the ‘fast’ ones are mostly only on a few major highways and are thus far all 50kW AFAIK.

Everyone I know assumes we’ll only have a decent charging network when Tesla brings it. Volvo, Porsche and BMW have installed a few L2, and BYD has established charging infrastructure for busses. Enel keeps promising but never seems to deliver.

 

[EQC_]

Wow. That should be labeled as an ad for Toyota.

Indeed it should.

That "1:6:90 rule" is straight out of some propaganda Toyota sent to it's dealers a couple weeks ago. Their argument is that for the batteries to make one fully electric car, you could make 6 plug-in hybrids or 90 regular hybrids.

Ignoring that hybrids and EVs generally use completely different batteries....the elephant in the room is:

Where are all your stinking hybrids, Toyota?

If one upstart company can make 1.5-2 million EVs per year, and the global auto market is something like 100 million vehicles, then that 90:1 ratio should mean every car produced is a hybrid. But it's not.

Even Toyota only sells about 2.5-3 million hybrids per year....about 25-30% of their production, and the Prius came out 25+ years ago!

25 years of minimal effort. In another couple years, Tesla will most probably be selling more full EVs than Toyota sells hybrids. And Toyota is sitting there saying: let's not rush things, we can slowly increase our hybrid production!

There are zero valid excuses for Toyota to sell any plain ICE vehicles today. They've had the hybrid tech for 25 years. If they couldn't ramp up battery supply and sell 100% hybrids by now, it's their own fault. Tesla got to a similar battery supply scale in half the time, with a more obvious and faster rate of increase. No excuses for Toyota...their own logic and numbers shoes how little effort they have actually put in.

And worst of all, that article ends with: "The bottom line: "Government policy should match a limited battery supply to where it can have the maximum impact for consumers and the environment," writes auto journalist Edward Niedermeyer."

...the same Anti-EV Ed Niedermeier that attacked Tesla for years? And he's declaring a "limited battery supply" because companies like Toyota didn't bother to ask for that supply for 25 years? But now a whole bunch of companies are building up the needed supply, thanks in no small part to Tesla pushing the industry and also doing it themselves? But no, no, you're right Ed! Let's ignore the current reality and obvious near-future progress and take Toyota's word for it that sitting on our hands is the right way to change the world.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Does anybody know if the EV tax credits are effected by the debt ceiling deal?

 

[Dutchie]

Brasil now uses CCS2 and probably will not easily change despite the tiny infrastructure today.
OTOH, were Tesla and Ford both want the Tesla connector (if it’s not called North America Charging Standard) so long as they’d make major Mercosur investments and specifically Brasil also.
OTOH they’d most likely do better with CCS2 and major local investment in exchange for tax advantages, so maintaining present commonality with the EU.

only my opinions…not necessarily correct. FWIW I personally don’t mind CCS except in the US where maintenance is so very poor and users so frequently break the connectors. The existing few in Brasil seem to be well maintained, I have not yet found an inoperative charger in my two years with a BEV in Rio de Janeiro. However the ‘fast’ ones are mostly only on a few major highways and are thus far all 50kW AFAIK.

Everyone I know assumes we’ll only have a decent charging network when Tesla brings it. Volvo, Porsche and BMW have installed a few L2, and BYD has established charging infrastructure for busses. Enel keeps promising but never seems to deliver.

I just wonder if Brazil needs a huge charging network. I don’t think road tripping is a big thing there. Sure people drive from Sao Paulo to Rio, but are there really that many who drive from for instance Fortaleza to Porto Alegre? Or even from Rio to Belo Horizonte? I understand that the country is very mountainous and therefore the overal infrastructure is lagging.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Not a rare thing anymore but today is gonna be a Whopper, electricity prices going negative almost everywhere in Europe

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662488409842020354

On dynamic plans people get payed to charge their cars, up to €0,33/kWh. The Dutch have 20GW of installed solar, typical load is around 12 GW.

 

[Singuy]

Wow, this is actually pretty crazy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662552635889577993

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662552659134492672

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662617069396054017

Agreed “In principle” from what I read. Trying to keep the calm.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Got the "Software Update Available" notice in my Model Y on Saturday morning. Installed the update, and voilà, FSD beta 11.4.2 in da house! Also moved from the 2022.x branch to 2023.7.10 for the car O/S (I think this is important so standard autopilot can become a subset of the full FSD stack; We'll see soon I think, especially because of all the safety features such as collision avoidance).

So after installation, I put 350 km on the new FSD beta on Sat. afternoon+evening, mix of city** and highway w. an intercity trip, and I have this one takeaway: Is Hella Good! Lot's of prior trouble spots addressed (ie: phantom braking); and new features such as a notable improvement in advance staging for routing via timely, appropriate lane selection. This sucker thinks ahead now (up to a mile ahead for multiple required lane changes after merging on an expressway then exiting within a short distance). Great progress here!

To sum up, my 1st drive with FSD Beta v11.4.2 was smooth, comfortable, and confident. Thereby, my trip was relaxing and enjoyable. Dinner and a chauffeured sunset cruise on a beautiful Summer evening; it don't get better than that.

Thanks, Elon and the Tesla AP team. Y'all Rock!
**did I mention that AEB prevented a full-frontal collision from an idiot's illegal u-turn within the 1st block on this trip? Yeah, that happened too! No problemo... for Beta!

 

[hobbes]

Love this shot from Tobi Lindh´s video of the employee family party at Giga Berlin, with brand new roads and train station (under construction) in the foreground:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for the information about Robin Hood. I agree with another post of yours where you say that the options are so large at TSLA that often the options tail wags the stock dog. I also agree that a pushdown in the final half hour of TSLA trading on a Friday can set in motion lots of other activities that can further depress the stock price.

Yeah, except that not 3:30 pm IS NOT the time RobinHood automatically closes ITM Options:

"However, the option holder generally has until 4:30 pm CST on the expiration day to exercise the contract. Expiring options will also be automatically exercised if they are ITM at 3 pm CST for equity options and 3:15 pm CST for index options." -- Dec 27, 2022​

What Time do Options Expire Robinhood? - haikhuu.com › education › what-time-do-options-on-expire-robinhood

Notice that's 3:00 pm CST? Yeah, Options trade on the CBOE in Chicago, as in CENTRAL TIME. That's 4:00 pm ET.

Then there's this new twist for Options trading too: (effective May 15, 2023)

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "NEWS: Robinhood to launch 24 hour trading of $TSLA stock, along with 42 other securities. It launches next week. They plan to allow round-the-clock trading between 8 p.m. ET Sunday & 8 p.m. ET Friday in 43 securities, including, Amazon, Apple and Tesla. WSJ News Exclusive | Robinhood to Launch 24-Hour Trading on Weekdays in Stocks and ETFs" / Twitter​

The options-tail isn't just wagging the equities-dog; it's eating it.

 

[lascavarian]

Yeah, unless for some reason there is a breakthrough like when all is being controlled by NN and that suddenly it get's good in all

I remember James Douma telling that years ago on NoA he had multiple problems in a route he did often, revision after revision and none were fixed, until on a major revision that was a big overhaul of the system everything got solved at once, while I don't see that happening since city streets is way more complex, we can hope

Not exactly what James seems to be referring to but in the previous FSD beta release I noted a similar fix. In my state there are small (maybe 10”x10”) signs the state/county uses for some road identification info (numbers) that caused problems for years.

I finally connected the problem with these small signs. In one case when passing the local middle school (35 mph zone) FSD would reliably accelerate to 50 mph only when passing in a specific direction. In another case FSD would slow to 20 mph in a 45 mph zone. I had attributed it to likely mapping errors but FSD was interpreting these small signs as speed limit signs it seems.

Then a recent FSD beta release fixed these enduring speed control problems.

The resolution of these erratic speed fluctuations greatly increased my comfort level. For years glowing YouTube reports of FSD performance were demonstratively false for me. Then recently puff - unreliable speed control fixed.

 

[mongo]

Yeah, except that not 3:30 pm IS NOT the time RobinHood automatically closes ITM Options:

"However, the option holder generally has until 4:30 pm CST on the expiration day to exercise the contract. Expiring options will also be automatically exercised if they are ITM at 3 pm CST for equity options and 3:15 pm CST for index options." -- Dec 27, 2022​

What Time do Options Expire Robinhood? - haikhuu.com › education › what-time-do-options-on-expire-robinhood

Notice that's 3:00 pm CST? Yeah, Options trade on the CBOE in Chicago, as in CENTRAL TIME. That's 4:00 pm ET.

Then there's this new twist for Options trading too: (effective May 15, 2023)

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "NEWS: Robinhood to launch 24 hour trading of $TSLA stock, along with 42 other securities. It launches next week. They plan to allow round-the-clock trading between 8 p.m. ET Sunday & 8 p.m. ET Friday in 43 securities, including, Amazon, Apple and Tesla. WSJ News Exclusive | Robinhood to Launch 24-Hour Trading on Weekdays in Stocks and ETFs" / Twitter​

The options-tail isn't just wagging the equities-dog; it's eating it.

You are referencing the time that ITM options are automatically *exercised*.
@Papafox and @saniflash are referring to when positions that do not have sufficient funds to execute are *closed* (sold).

Also, [regardless of Google search's summary] extended Robinhood trading time does not include options.

Using 24 Hour Market, people can place limit orders to buy whole shares of 43 of the most traded ETFs and individual stocks– such as TSLA, AMZN and AAPL– 24 hours a day, five days a week.

 

[unk45]

I just wonder if Brazil needs a huge charging network. I don’t think road tripping is a big thing there. Sure people drive from Sao Paulo to Rio, but are there really that many who drive from for instance Fortaleza to Porto Alegre? Or even from Rio to Belo Horizonte? I understand that the country is very mountainous and therefore the overal infrastructure is lagging.

I disagree with this logic. There is very high auto usage between most major southern cities and between numerous cities in other regions. Your logic is analogous to suggesting that US 48 States will not have much road traffic because it’s mountainous in many areas. Middle class Brazilians travel by road extensively. A doorman fir part of my family traveled by road twice a year from Rio de Janeiro to Recife and back. Look it up. That is a quite popular route during vacations, as is from major southern cities to Salvador.

in nearly every large country people often drive between large cities and tourist destinations or distant homes. I know of very few exceptions. Having driven from Paris to Tehran forty years ago, and from Pattaya to Singapore a few years earlier, I regard BEV infrastructure as crucial everywhere. Seriously, check out the road trip some time ago with two Teslas going from Chengdu IIRC, to Mount Everest Base Camp entirely with Superchargers,

Let us not misunderstand, build the Supercharger network and Tesla sakes will grow, just as Elon has often said. Conclusion, most people completely misunderstand the Tesla addressable market because they assume people will or cannot pay. That misses the market.

Twenty million a year is NOT ‘pie in the sky’. Obviously there are impediments. There always are.

 

[Singuy]

Got the "Software Update Available" notice in my Model Y on Saturday morning. Installed the update, and voilà, FSD beta 11.4.2 in da house! Also moved from the 2022.x branch to 2023.7.10 for the car O/S (I think this is important so standard autopilot can become a subset of the full FSD stack; We'll see soon I think, especially because of all the safety features such as collision avoidance).

So after installation, I put 350 km on the new FSD beta on Sat. afternoon+evening, mix of city** and highway w. an intercity trip, and I have this one takeaway: Is Hella Good! Lot's of prior trouble spots addressed (ie: phantom braking); and new features such as a notable improvement in advance staging for routing via timely, appropriate lane selection. This sucker thinks ahead now (up to a mile ahead for multiple required lane changes after merging on an expressway then exiting within a short distance). Great progress here!

To sum up, my 1st drive with FSD Beta v11.4.2 was smooth, comfortable, and confident. Thereby, my trip was relaxing and enjoyable. Dinner and a chauffeured sunset cruise on a beautiful Summer evening; it don't get better than that.

Thanks, Elon and the Tesla AP team. Y'all Rock!
**did I mention that AEB prevented a full-frontal collision from an idiot's illegal u-turn within the 1st block on this trip? Yeah, that happened too! No problemo... for Beta!

The phantom braking may not be the result of this update but map data optimization with no updates. My car that used to phantom brake and actually stop in the middle of a 45mph section of the road with zero reason has been fixed just this week and im still on 11.3.6 with no updates recently. The car has been doing this for like half a year until last week. Seems like FSD software updates only update the puppet but not the puppet master.

In fact dirty Tesla asked people on Twitter if problems have been fixed recently with no updates

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661414471418380289

 

[cliff harris]

Electric vehicles have an efficiency problem



This is the kind of nonsense that gasheads read and use to attack BEVs. Basically because there isn't enough raw materials now, people should give up and just buy hybrids.

There is a great book about the lifestory of rockerfeller, which charts the early days of oil. Its notable for the sudden realisation after a while that actually OH MY GOD, there may be oil somewhere other than pennsylvania!

People havent been looking for battery materials for very logn, its never been important. I trust Tesla when they tell uis the raw materials are no problem. They have a huge vested interest in getting that right.

 

[scaesare]

[snip]

Their argument is that for the batteries to make one fully electric car, you could make 6 plug-in hybrids or 90 regular hybrids.

[snip]

That ratio shows how poor regular hybrids are at displacing gasoline use.

You could at least make an argument that the only 30-50 miles of electric range of a plug in hybrid is sufficient for most daily driving needs, but 3 miles?

As JB once said, the issue with traditional hybrids is that you are still 100% addicted to gas...

 

[GSP]

Brasil now uses CCS2 and probably will not easily change despite the tiny infrastructure today.
OTOH, were Tesla and Ford both want the Tesla connector (if it’s not called North America Charging Standard) so long as they’d make major Mercosur investments and specifically Brasil also.
OTOH they’d most likely do better with CCS2 and major local investment in exchange for tax advantages, so maintaining present commonality with the EU.

only my opinions…not necessarily correct. FWIW I personally don’t mind CCS except in the US where maintenance is so very poor and users so frequently break the connectors. The existing few in Brasil seem to be well maintained, I have not yet found an inoperative charger in my two years with a BEV in Rio de Janeiro. However the ‘fast’ ones are mostly only on a few major highways and are thus far all 50kW AFAIK.

Everyone I know assumes we’ll only have a decent charging network when Tesla brings it. Volvo, Porsche and BMW have installed a few L2, and BYD has established charging infrastructure for busses. Enel keeps promising but never seems to deliver.

If Brazil requires 3-phase power for loads in the 10-20 kW range, like Europe does, then they will need to stick with Type 2 and CCS2 connectors. If not, then maybe the NACS has a chance.

GSP

 

[2daMoon]

If Brazil requires 3-phase power for loads in the 10-20 kW range, like Europe does, then they will need to stick with Type 2 and CCS2 connectors. If not, then maybe the NACS has a chance.

GSP

Could this be overcome by dropping in battery storage to provide the needed power for the chargers, and using available utilities to recharge the battery during idle time?

 

[GhostSkater]

I just wonder if Brazil needs a huge charging network. I don’t think road tripping is a big thing there. Sure people drive from Sao Paulo to Rio, but are there really that many who drive from for instance Fortaleza to Porto Alegre? Or even from Rio to Belo Horizonte? I understand that the country is very mountainous and therefore the overal infrastructure is lagging.

Edit: unk45 beat me to it

While driving to the north tip to the south is not common, the bottom half trips are quite common between the cities you cited and more, so at least need a solid charging network

Think like it was on the US, there was solid Superchargers coverage across the whole east and west coast before the corridors between the two got less sparse, so something like that is the way here

 

[GSP]

Could this be overcome by dropping in battery storage to provide the needed power for the chargers, and using available utilities to recharge the battery during idle time?

I was referring to national requirements for providing electricity for L2 charging. In Europe it must be 3-phase above a certain power level. The level may vary from one country to another, but IIRC single phase can only be used for up to 3-7 kW. This requires the 3-phase capable Type 2 connector for L2 charging at home and at public L2 chargers.

With Type 2 being required for L2, then the only decent choice for DC fast charging is CCS2.

GSP