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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Thus ends our streak. It was a good streak though!
This streak was better...

tenor.gif
 
Yes, there are still plans for a $420 All-Time High summit in Las Vegas whenever the time comes.
First I have heard of this. So much potential for that to be quirky, weird, interesting and fascinating!
I think I would have to go.
Hopefully I am not the one starting the' how i lost my tesla fortune in Vegas', thread, (despite the fact it would be a near shoe in for a threads of the day nomination).
 
Yes, there are still plans for a $420 All-Time High summit in Las Vegas whenever the time comes.

First I have heard of this. So much potential for that to be quirky, weird, interesting and fascinating!
I think I would have to go.
Hopefully I am not the one starting the' how i lost my tesla fortune in Vegas', thread, (despite the fact it would be a near shoe in for a threads of the day nomination).

I'll go, it'll be a barrel of laughs. I swear. ❤️😂
 
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during Fed induced volatility this afternoon, sold all my TSLL and switched back into TSLA common. took me what seemed like forever to get rid of all TSLL that i was carrying. liquidity in TSLL is awful and TSLA liquidity is a beautiful dream come true. it takes me fraction of time to build back my TSLA position compared to time and effort spent liquidating TSLL. got very lucky in that i was able to lower my cost basis with recent market timing. extremely stressful though and definitely not worth it. better to just buy and hold and trade every few years rather than trying to time every ST price fluctuation
165% long TSLA
zero calls, zero TSLL
short term volatility i can handle better this way
very hard to trade this thing but there is no way i am about to miss out on next several quarters of TSLA stock price appreciation
will continue to stay super-long TSLA common, no matter what happens in short term
weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts look great
not trading or investing or financial advice
 
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Here’s the thing. It sounds like Toyota is getting serious and that’s good. However, actually implementing all that new technology is extremely hard work and expensive. If they are truly committed to it, they have the resources to pull it off. However, what we’ve seen from them so far is only headlines and no execution.
The one major exception to this is their new “bipolar” battery design, which they say has secretly been in production already for the Aqua and Crown hybrids. That is an interesting shift in battery cell design and I’m still trying to get a sense of the trade offs compared with normal (monopolar in Toyota’s nomenclature) cell design. I’m really hoping someone who knows more on this topic will pick it up and present some analysis to the EV community.
 
On the super-peripheral topic of war zone EVs:

I doubt I can come up with an easier in all respects target for an adversary than an appropriately large solar array, even considering one being placed at a long distance from the front line (thus being transferred via Megapacks).
If the enemy is targeting solar farms with precision munitions, those munitions are not being used to target other things.

There are forms of "fast deploy solar" which could quickly be replaced by more of the same... Time frame - days to a few weeks for motivated engineers.

At the solar farm, solar can be distributed in clusters with each cluster being a safe distance from other clusters.

Multiple solar farms locations can be used, they can be linked by underground HVDC cables, and Megapacks can be in underground bunkers.

If expensive precision missiles are used to destroy solar, the missile probably costs more than the value of the solar it destroys.

If Drones are able to destroy solar, they are probably cheaper than the value of the solar they destroy. A high priority would be protecting the solar farms from drone attacks.

Wind power also stacks up well because wind turbines are distributed and require a precision strike,

IMO a nuclear power generator, a coal power generator, an oil storage facility or an oil refinery are much softer targets where a single strike can take out a large amount of capacity in one hit,

This is just one of the ways clean energy and transport is more resilient, economic, and sustainable.
 
There is one important metric on which Tesla is far and away leading Lucid, and that is manufacturability. The Tesla drivetrain may not technically be as advanced as Lucid's, but it's easier to make at high volumes, and that is much more important to Tesla than the other metrics.

If Lucid was making 2 million cars per year, then they'd have something. I mean seriously, for the price a Lucid costs it better dang well be the best performing powertrain out there!
I assumed Munro’s cost estimates would include manufacturability. Are you sure they don’t?
 
during Fed induced volatility this afternoon, sold all my TSLL and switched back into TSLA common. took me what seemed like forever to get rid of all TSLL that i was carrying. liquidity in TSLL is awful and TSLA liquidity is a beautiful dream come true. it takes me fraction of time to build back my TSLA position compared to time and effort spent liquidating TSLL. got very lucky in that i was able to lower my cost basis with recent market timing. extremely stressful though and definitely not worth it. better to just buy and hold and trade every few years rather than trying to time every ST price fluctuation
165% long TSLA
zero calls, zero TSLL
short term volatility i can handle better this way
very hard to trade this thing but there is no way i am about to miss out on next several quarters of TSLA stock price appreciation
will continue to stay super-long TSLA common, no matter what happens in short term
weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts look great
not trading or investing or financial advice
@TrendTrader007, please please please take your own advice posted just moments ago and "better to just buy and hold and trade every few years rather than trying to time every ST price fluctuation." This is financial advice. You will thank me for it later.
 
during Fed induced volatility this afternoon, sold all my TSLL and switched back into TSLA common. took me what seemed like forever to get rid of all TSLL that i was carrying. liquidity in TSLL is awful and TSLA liquidity is a beautiful dream come true. it takes me fraction of time to build back my TSLA position compared to time and effort spent liquidating TSLL. got very lucky in that i was able to lower my cost basis with recent market timing. extremely stressful though and definitely not worth it. better to just buy and hold and trade every few years rather than trying to time every ST price fluctuation
165% long TSLA
zero calls, zero TSLL
short term volatility i can handle better this way
very hard to trade this thing but there is no way i am about to miss out on next several quarters of TSLA stock price appreciation
will continue to stay super-long TSLA common, no matter what happens in short term
weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts look great
not trading or investing or financial advice
Are you cashflow positive on a monthly basis and/or have other avenues to generate cash down the road?

Why not just buy at the money LEAPS for Dec 2025 for the equivalent number of shares you want to own today. You have the LEAPS then that you can exercise if the stock goes much higher between now and 2 and a half years from now and if there's a significant pullback, with the rest of the cash you have left over from not buying all outright stock today, you can buy actual stock then (or buy more at the money LEAPS).
 
On the super-peripheral topic of war zone EVs:

I doubt I can come up with an easier in all respects target for an adversary than an appropriately large solar array, even considering one being placed at a long distance from the front line (thus being transferred via Megapacks).

Yup, many logistical and strategic aspects would indeed need to be worked out to determine the most advantageous use for solar / batteries / and EVs in such environments...and the answer in many cases might be "not at all."

All sorts of details -- desert vs jungle vs mountainous vs urban regions along with weather, latitude, and season-- would play a role in dictating the balance of when to have some number of electric vehicles fed by solar, or fed by generators, or if it's better to stick with 100% diesel-fueled vehicles.

Even if the solar might be targeted, there's advantages to having a power source that doesn't need external human-supplied inputs, as opposed to vehicles and generators that require frequent fuel convoys to make treks through risky territory.

Another nice thing about solar is that it can be spread out if the terrain allows -- multiple smaller arrays/fields, with inexpensive wire connecting everything would be trickier to target and could be quickly brought back online, minus whatever panels were damaged.

I'm sure plenty of folks much smarter than me have analyzed and figured out all the pros and cons in various environments as the tech has developed... My data is probably outdated by now, but I remember hearing some years back that the US was the #1 consumer of fossil fuels, and within the US, the #1 consumer was the Department of Defense...so any EV inroads there would have a good practical and symbolic impact.

I don't expect Tesla wants to become a military supplier...but if the military started using EVs in harsh environments, that would send a message to the public and get some more ICE holdouts to think again and possibly trigger another demand step-up for the entire EV movement. So, potentially stock related!

*Edited to note that MC3OZ hit many of these points above :).
 
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If the enemy is targeting solar farms with precision munitions, those munitions are not being used to target other things.

There are forms of "fast deploy solar" which could quickly be replaced by more of the same... Time frame - days to a few weeks for motivated engineers.

At the solar farm, solar can be distributed in clusters with each cluster being a safe distance from other clusters.

Multiple solar farms locations can be used, they can be linked by underground HVDC cables, and Megapacks can be in underground bunkers.

If expensive precision missiles are used to destroy solar, the missile probably costs more than the value of the solar it destroys.

If Drones are able to destroy solar, they are probably cheaper than the value of the solar they destroy. A high priority would be protecting the solar farms from drone attacks.

Wind power also stacks up well because wind turbines are distributed and require a precision strike,

IMO a nuclear power generator, a coal power generator, an oil storage facility or an oil refinery are much softer targets where a single strike can take out a large amount of capacity in one hit,

This is just one of the ways clean energy and transport is more resilient, economic, and sustainable.

US Army has been deploying hybrid solar/diesel generator systems for over a decade.


Running solar as a single power source would be logistically and strategically unreliable, but using it to augment fossil usage is a fantastic design.