Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

I think Tesla didn't see a value in committing resources to delivery on the S/X refresh compared to ramping Berlin and Austin. I would guess that was the right decision as well.

Why start a refresh you don't intend to commit resources to succeed at? Even the "old" raven-refresh would've sold far more cars in the interim without having to commit any resources?

Production didn't get back to Q4 2020 numbers until Q2 2022. On car they never made that many of to start with compared to 3/Y.

 

[Patrick66]

Anyone able to explain the "Golden Cross" discussion? Folks seem to see this as a significant event and I am utterly clueless.

I am not a fan of technical analysis, but some of the patterns are fairly logical. I expect Tesla to trade in a range of $220-300 through delivery numbers, when a new lower bound will be established likely around $250. I don't think the upper limit will change unless deliveries are much higher than expected. The "golden cross" is just using a graph to get to specific points similar to my gut opinion; it is based on how stocks are generally traded and influenced by large fund transactions.

 

[larmor]

Anyone able to explain the "Golden Cross" discussion? Folks seem to see this as a significant event and I am utterly clueless.

On another note, a lot of speculation on what will drive Tesla's value going forward i.e. FSDb, bot, energy, etc etc.(not saying I disagree)

The things that I really latch onto are the gen 3 vehicle(s) and CT. These seem to be more concrete changes taking place with fairly well defined timeframes. It's hard for me to imagine these don't have drastic effects on share price as production ramps.

Ongoing tesla valuation is based on continued growth of durable goods, expanding customer base, failing LNG peaker plants to be replaced with battery storage, and AI driven FSD. Contrast to other companies revenue based on advertising, or making GPUs-- presumably to be implemented to increase revenue from advertising.

 

[Patrick66]

Why start a refresh you don't intend to commit resources to succeed at? Even the "old" raven-refresh would've sold far more cars in the interim without having to commit any resources?

The ramp schedule was in significantly worse shape than expected at Austin and Berlin and that had bigger long term implications. Tesla needed to be able to defend against new models coming out that competed with bread and butter sales volume.

Reactionary decisions are always more costly than sticking to plan, but you are sometimes forced into them.

 

[Buckminster]

I’m confident that the golden cross will be great for tsla. I didn’t get my $1m for a second pessimistic statement so you all get what you deserve….

 

[Big Time]

Took TSLA mb 20 days from last golden cross to go parabolic…..let’s say mb two weeks?
Watched Asian markets tank last night, I’m sure this is spill over from that. Hopefully we get a nice close

 

[Electroman]

What I know about this :

 

[GOVA]

I don’t technically have him on ignore, but do ignore any of his - or other’s - prognostications. Historically, they are no better than chance.

I was even pushed an article this morning that TA signals indicate Tesla is “overbought” and due for a pullback due to some “Golden Cross” nonsense. It may pull back, or it may continue to advance. I still hold Technical Analysis has zero predictive value and is a horrible way to try to time the market.

Those are posts of a true psychopath. I genuinely hope nobody lost money or even life due to reading this.

It is always the formula:

Garbage,
Nonsense
blah, blah, garbage
Not investment advice.

 

[winfield100]

Anyone able to explain the "Golden Cross" discussion? Folks seem to see this as a significant event and I am utterly clueless.

On another note, a lot of speculation on what will drive Tesla's value going forward i.e. FSDb, bot, energy, etc etc.(not saying I disagree)

The things that I really latch onto are the gen 3 vehicle(s) and CT. These seem to be more concrete changes taking place with fairly well defined timeframes. It's hard for me to imagine these don't have drastic effects on share price as production ramps.

@TesslaBull
from around jan 2020 to around may 2022,
the yellow line, 50day Simple moving average was _above_
the thick black line, 200 day SMA
the light blue line 20 day SMA

ie 50 day SMA > 200 day SMA (upwards pressure?)

things generally trending upwards, tho the "ziggy zaggy" daily prices tend to say "jold ma bheer fer a bit"

from around may 2022 trend was downwards, occasionally with a vengence

ie 200 day SMA > 50day SMA (downwards pressure?)

now the trend _may_ be reversing_,
but again "ghod (and the quants) only noes"
(whats it gonna be boy?)

the significance of the cross, at least to me, is a _lot_ of real folks, plus "synthetic" folks, lesser grade AI's and programs follow those indicators and _may_ tend to exercebate moves, preferably upwards

Is it predictive? I have no idea but probably not
confirmatory? the eyes can see patterns in hallucinations and ears hear commands from unseen voices from invisible beings so maybe

Is it better than "scrying" (reading warm fresh sheep entrails)

I have no idea nor do I want to know, but you did ask that thats my interpretation

(I've followed TA for 40 years, if it worked and _only_ I used it maybe, but enough use it so predicitve value diluted out) but still pretty patterns)

 

[cliff harris]

Im surprised there is not more widespread coverage, and discussion of, and frankly anger about the US government just handing the largest loan in their history to Ford because Ford have been so spectacularly clueless about EVs until now.
This loan is 20x the size of the loan the govt gave Tesla. What the hell is so special about Ford that they deserve this, rather than Lucid, Rivian or Tesla?
It smacks of extreme corruption to me, and pouring good money after bad. At the very least, it should have been conditional on firing the entire board of directors for gross uselessness in the obvious, well-signaled face of the EV transition.
I'm furious and I'm not even a US tax payer. I suspect ford's advertising dollars will help them ensure the news is buried in the back pages so voters do not notice...

 

[betstarship]

Awesome!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672252679324680193

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Brake by wire on the rear wheels is a necessity for the unboxed process, and Bosch has been testing and showing a system that does exactly that

Brembo's brake by wire system was demonstrated on a Model 3 a couple of years ago

 

[winfield100]

addendum, 20, 50, 200 day SMA for 2023
it looks better finally gol-dern cross

 

[Knightshade]

Im surprised there is not more widespread coverage, and discussion of, and frankly anger about the US government just handing the largest loan in their history to Ford because Ford have been so spectacularly clueless about EVs until now.

This is not remotely the largest loan in US government history.

This loan is 20x the size of the loan the govt gave Tesla.

But less than 2x the size of the one they gave Ford back in 2009 (which they recently finished repaying)

I'm sure Tesla could get a huge loan now too if they needed one- but they don't.

FWIW though Redwood materials DOES have an outstanding loan from this program for 2 billion despite being a tiny company.

Redwood Materials scores $2 billion DOE loan to boost its EV battery operations

The company is building a $3.5 billion factory in South Carolina.

www.theverge.com

What the hell is so special about Ford that they deserve this, rather than Lucid, Rivian or Tesla?

They applied for it.

None of the others did.

It smacks of extreme corruption to me

Why?

Tesla has put a lot of effort into getting RID of debt-- why are you mad they aren't adding more of it?

 

[winfield100]

and May 2022 to Jan 1 2023 $300 to $108
(the straight line is a linear regression line of the close)
(sept to dec was a in the streets)

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Looks at SP.

If this is the result of a "golden cross"...no thanks.

Would it make you feel better if I told you that's a dummy and not a real stuntman?

 

[nativewolf]

This is not remotely the largest loan in US government history.




But less than 2x the size of the one they gave Ford back in 2009 (which they recently finished repaying)

I'm sure Tesla could get a huge loan now too if they needed one- but they don't.

FWIW though Redwood materials DOES have an outstanding loan from this program for 2 billion despite being a tiny company.

Redwood Materials scores $2 billion DOE loan to boost its EV battery operations

The company is building a $3.5 billion factory in South Carolina.

www.theverge.com

They applied for it.

None of the others did.



Why?

Tesla has put a lot of effort into getting RID of debt-- why are you mad they aren't adding more of it?

To which I would add good on Ford for planning on putting $50bln into a clean energy transition and good on the USA govt to support a company willing to change. Ford has mortgaged everything on this transition. There is not much more they can do, Ford going bankrupt won't help the USA transition to sustainability.

 

[GhostSkater]

Disappointed to wake up and see this isn't posted yet, you guys are slacking, c'mon

They managed to install and commission a second 9K Gigapress without people realizing

Bodes well for CT ramp or if they have something else going on that needs more castings volume

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672231532839198722

 

[Drumheller]

To which I would add good on Ford for planning on putting $50bln into a clean energy transition and good on the USA govt to support a company willing to change. Ford has mortgaged everything on this transition. There is not much more they can do, Ford going bankrupt won't help the USA transition to sustainability.

The loan Ford took in 2009 was also for clean energy transition. 14 years later, was that money well spent?

Let them face the consequences of their poor choices and likely fail. Stop bailing out bad companies. That encourages more bad behavior and decision making.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Im surprised there is not more widespread coverage, and discussion of, and frankly anger about the US government just handing the largest loan in their history to Ford because Ford have been so spectacularly clueless about EVs until now.
This loan is 20x the size of the loan the govt gave Tesla. What the hell is so special about Ford that they deserve this, rather than Lucid, Rivian or Tesla?
It smacks of extreme corruption to me, and pouring good money after bad. At the very least, it should have been conditional on firing the entire board of directors for gross uselessness in the obvious, well-signaled face of the EV transition.
I'm furious and I'm not even a US tax payer. I suspect ford's advertising dollars will help them ensure the news is buried in the back pages so voters do not notice...

Couldn't it just be a business move? I'm sure it's not an interest-free loan.