Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Seems like Tesla may have pushed a map data out or something. Car now stops correctly @ 35mph

Yes, Tesla can quickly deploy a route update to the connected fleet, but that's not a general solution. This is a classic instance of the old "Blind Corner Problem". Do you remember this video published in May 2019?

Tesla Vision Path Prediction To See Around Blind Corners | DPCcars (2019-05-06)

Clearly the general solution is for FSD Beta's "planner" neural net to identify blind corners (regardless of signage), then to slow to the appropriate speed so that ANY surprise that appears on the road ahead can be handled safely. This means planning for surprises (like a stop sign in a blind corner) even if they don't appear.

This solution is robust to blind corners, bad weather, low visibility, missing/incorrect signs, or vandalism of signage, and many other circumstances where traveling at the speed limit is not appropriate for the condtions.

In the meantime, Tesla does include this statement for drivers in their FSD Beta instructions:

Use Full Self-Driving in limited Beta only if you will pay constant attention to the road, and be prepared to act immediately, especially around blind corners, crossing intersections, and in narrow driving situations.

Do you remember "Joe Mode"? I think in honor of this episode, Tesla should create "Ross Mode"... that's when FSD Beta pops up a screen reminder of your duties and responsibilities as the Driver (then won't let you speed around blind corners for 2 weeks). Hah!

Cheers to the Beta Testers!

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK/Tesla/Advertising

I just did a Google search (Opera, Android phone) for "uk ev share"

First link is sponsored to tesla.com

Below the link, hyperlinked title and 3 line description it has two further links for "Available Inventory" and "Test Drive a Tesla"

Clicking the advert info, Advertisier is verified as Tesla, US.

Available inventory takes me to a page with inventory and an information section saying "10,000 km Free Supercharging... Long Range RWD, Long Range AWD or Performance Model 3 in June 2023 to qualify". Terms and conditions link:- June 8-30th 2023. Delivery MUST happen before June 30, 2023. Can't cancel existing order & reorder. Can't transfer order to another person. Free Supercharging for original buyer only, disappears if sell car.

Model 3 RWD is £38,790 instead of £42,990 (struck through). Details:- New vehicle, free white paint.

I then repeated the search on Chrome (PC) and got.

View attachment 950674

I no longer get any Tesla Sponsored Links on Google. This was probably highly targeted in terms of

• Geography (UK, perhaps just Great Britain - excluding Northern Ireland due to delay in delivering, perhaps even just areas close to ports, so even excluding Northern England, Wales, Scotland.
• Time - 27th June now, not much time before 30th.
• Budget - really a dip in the water to test effects
• Only a few extra cars needed to be sold - now they're gone, the campaign is ended/suspended.
• Demographics - perhaps you have to fit into Google's EV-buyer box from searching, youtube etc. I should have done a check on another browser/account which wasn't logged in to my normal account - or asked family to check.

Also, perhaps Tesla higher ups didn't approve and it was just a local initiative. It was mentioned by Tesla Daily/Rob Maurer on youtube.

 

[petit_bateau]

I no longer get any Tesla Sponsored Links on Google. This was probably highly targeted in terms of

• Geography (UK, perhaps just Great Britain - excluding Northern Ireland due to delay in delivering, perhaps even just areas close to ports, so even excluding Northern England, Wales, Scotland.
• Time - 27th June now, not much time before 30th.
• Budget - really a dip in the water to test effects
• Only a few extra cars needed to be sold - now they're gone, the campaign is ended/suspended.
• Demographics - perhaps you have to fit into Google's EV-buyer box from searching, youtube etc. I should have done a check on another browser/account which wasn't logged in to my normal account - or asked family to check.

Also, perhaps Tesla higher ups didn't approve and it was just a local initiative. It was mentioned by Tesla Daily/Rob Maurer on youtube.

Good catch. They are still showing miles offers on the GB inventory

but now they are ready for delivery, so I think the availability has changed - that may be one of the reasons

 

[scaesare]

View attachment 951159
BMW Munich Delivery and Experience Center yesterday, apparently the transition to EV's is bringing "JOY" to BMW?

That grill!

 

[JRP3]

Loose lips sink ships.

You don't usually jump overboard at the first drop unless you were looking to get off anyway.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Good catch. They are still showing miles offers on the GB inventory

View attachment 951209



View attachment 951210

but now they are ready for delivery, so I think the availability has changed - that may be one of the reasons

View attachment 951211

Ok - so perhaps Tesla wanted to spark actionable interest, pull forward some orders or weren't convinced immediate demand was there before end of quarter.

Anecdotally, demand from company car drivers (often considered part of "fleet") in the UK has fallen for UK-specific reasons- so perhaps some fleet orders are cancelled or delayed. Just having a little uncertainty at quarter end is enough for Supercharging or other promotions.

This is not a RoE (Rest of Europe) phenomenon. This is UK-specific, and probably to small effect, so others shouldn't overdo it's implications.

I hope that the new market in Türkiye more than offsets this for European demand.

It's also just China-produced Model 3. Model Y much better choice for most people and more popular everywhere. Model Y does not have the 10,000 km/6,000 mile Supercharging promotion as far as I can see.

New number plate in September, so this might affect next quarter's deliveries. Lower July & August, much higher demand in September. We change plates in March and September and the car market is affected by this unusual seasonality.

 

[Unpilot]

Do you remember "Joe Mode"? I think in honor of this episode, Tesla should create "Ross Mode".

Just no...the less Ross...the better.

That man never saw a mirror he didn't fall in love with.

 

[nativewolf]

You don't usually jump overboard at the first drop unless you were looking to get off anyway.

And it is a factory site that is by necessity very very limited in Europe. They cannot just drop in a Berlin or Austin sized complex anywhere. Only a few dozen cities have the people you want to hire and only a fraction from there have the right land area available for a factory. Plus they are building a factory and it was rumored in Mexico for months and months and they did not scupper that deal. They don't really have any choice but also...who cares? It just does not matter. Why bother with secrecy? Maybe it costs you a few $ in speculators but who cares if it is the right place.

 

[2daMoon]

You don't usually jump overboard at the first drop unless you were looking to get off anyway.

When Tesla enters into a contract that includes not leaking info (NDA) and, the other party breaks that contract, this is what happens.

Breaking an NDA poisons the pool of resources that will be bidding on all aspects of bringing a new factory online. Very possibly raising the costs before those contracts can be secured. If the business environment in Spain was already sketchy, maybe demonstrating how they won't abide to the terms of a contract was all they needed to do to push Tesla away.

I expect what you have written is accurate enough. Tesla may have been looking to get off anyway. This in no way discounts what @Krugerrand posted. Their loose lips sunk that ship, even though the ship may have been taking on water and listing to starboard a tad already.

 

[Maarten]

The CEO of MAN trucks, a huge player in Europe, in an interview: electrical trucks are the future.

Tl;dr:
“E-mobility is coming now. The technology is mature and most efficient. In our estimation, 80[%] or even 90% of logistics trucks will be electrically driven.. ...H2 will only be marginal, being far too expensive."

'Far too expensive' | Europe’s second-largest truck maker says hydrogen will not be a major road freight fuel | Hydrogen Insight

MAN CEO expects commercial vehicles to be mainly battery electric in the future, with H2 being marginal and focused on extremely heavy loads

www.hydrogeninsight.com

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673629061552242688

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673636807827677185

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just no...the less Ross...the better.

That man never saw a mirror he didn't fall in love with.

Lol! Well, maybe a little less 'side-eye' while discussing #823

Cheers!

 

[Fred42]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673636807827677185

I just received an e-mail with the following subject: Final Days of Lucid Air Special Offers. I think the way I first read this wasn't their intent.

 

[UkNorthampton]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673636807827677185

Lucid soon according to some. The point for TSLA/Tesla is that some of the nonsense spoken in mainstream/shill media about market share, competitors etc is less believable.

 

[EVMeister]

Dangerous for who? That tweet saved Tesla from a hostile takeover.

But Saudi money is great. Look at how it turned out for Lucid... Oh wait.

 

[Krugerrand]

They don't really have any choice but also...who cares? It just does not matter. Why bother with secrecy? Maybe it costs you a few $ in speculators but who cares if it is the right place.

There are lots of choices. Tesla cares. Secrecy has always mattered to Tesla. What doesn’t matter is what you think.

 

[petit_bateau]

It is thought that 4680 machinery had gone to Berlin for installation, but before being installed was then sent to Austin where it is now operating. The reason being the US-IRA domestic manufacturing subsidies.

Well in January 2024 there are EU rules due to come in to force which will give rise to a 10% import tariff on non-EU sourced cells. The tariffs will ramp more as time goes on.

Point being that it would be good to see some 4680 machinery starting to turn up in Berlin, or else this will affect even the Berlin-origin Y. Naturally it will also affect the Shanghai sourced 3 and the Fremont sourced S/X.

Other manufacturers are also struggling to source EU production so there is a little bit of pressure to delay this, and also it means that all OEMs are equally disadvantaged right now.

The UK is particularly disadvantaged due to its own Brexit - mouth - gun moment, but that's not really a problem for Tesla to solve. If/when Berlin has localised cells then it may in time make it worth Berlin taking on the task of making RHD vehicles, but that's a secondary issue.

Brexit ‘cliff edge’ poses threat to UK electric car production, warns industry chief

Head of SMMT raises concerns over tightening of trade rules from January on vehicles exported from UK to EU

www.theguardian.com

 

[Drumheller]

Wow:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673584536167301122

Threads:
FSD discussion
FSD V12 (end to end AI)
Tesla to license Autopilot / FSD

There are infinite numbers between 11 and 12. Elon also previously mentioned that the autopilot team is reserving version 11.420 for something special. (Or maybe it was 11.420.69)

It doesn't necessarily imply that v12 is close.

 

[Buckminster]

There are infinite numbers between 11 and 12. Elon also previously mentioned that the autopilot team is reserving version 11.420 for something special. (Or maybe it was 11.420.69)

It doesn't necessarily imply that v12 is close.

Ashok is talking about this year, not just Elon.