Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

Yes, most of what I review automatically is adjusted for splits. The EPS story for AAPL is admittedly complex with two splits, 7:1 in 2014 and 4:1 in 2020, but to further complicate it, AAPL has been buying back shares to the tune of almost $600B(!) over the past decade resulting in fewer shares even with splits (I think). That makes the EPS analysis complicated enough that I'm not willing to redo the analysis on my iPad!

Apple Stock Split History

A stock split history for Apple and split-adjusted CAGR.

www.stocksplithistory.com

224:1

 

[hobbes]

I expect you will see something like a monthly Tesla Charging membership via the Tesla app or the ability to pay as you go, with 10-15% uplift once this all gets sorted out. There have been no details about how pricing will work other than it will be the same pricing, but no explanation about how you get to that real pricing. Tesla still has to have a team of people to update the app, maintain the api, perform testing, design/build/test charging adapters, etc. All those costs need to be burdened by someone, whether it’s the auto manufacturer now and the non-Tesla consumer later remains to be seen.

We have it already in Europe: 13 EUR a month subscription for foreign brands to get the same price per kWh as a Tesla owner, otherwise 10-12% higher price. Likely Tesla will do something similar in the US.

 

[unk45]

I remain single-mindedly focused on one Market situation, as in the above from the May 24 - June 8 period. The next 13F deadline is August 14 (so long from now!); that is when we will learn the extent to which BlackRock has or hasn't increased its TSLA position. For the record, as of March 31, they held 178.66MM shares, #2 amongst Institutional Investors after Vanguard's 220.62MM. I'll wager they may have surpassed Vanguard by the end of last quarter.

A wise focus. TSLA institutional reluctance , exacerbated by the individual investor concentration for TSLA, so our security practically begs for manipulation. Without question that is a circular argument. A massive position from BlackRock serves a crucial function of reassuring skittish institutional investors, as important a function as the holding itself.

The massive speculative positions will not cease until the retail investors marks diminish as a proportion of the whole. That concentration is a primary reason why most market analysis is so flawed; nearly all generic market modeling is developed using data from securities which have high institutional shareholder concentrations. There is much more evidence, but retail traders are unable to access accurate timely data, so they stand as inevitable losers in the game.

BlackRock is capable of altering that dominance quite quickly.
It would benefit our most enthusiastic derivatives fans to examine market structure as well as trading data. Studying BlackRock itself is an excellent place to learn the value of prudence.

 

[winfield100]

A wise focus. TSLA institutional reluctance , exacerbated by the individual investor concentration for TSLA, so our security practically begs for manipulation. Without question that is a circular argument. A massive position from BlackRock serves a crucial function of reassuring skittish institutional investors, as important a function as the holding itself.

The massive speculative positions will not cease until the retail investors marks diminish as a proportion of the whole. That concentration is a primary reason why most market analysis is so flawed; nearly all generic market modeling is developed using data from securities which have high institutional shareholder concentrations. There is much more evidence, but retail traders are unable to access accurate timely data, so they stand as inevitable losers in the game.

BlackRock is capable of altering that dominance quite quickly.
It would benefit our most enthusiastic derivatives fans to examine market structure as well as trading data. Studying BlackRock itself is an excellent place to learn the value of prudence.

If only there was some way to lower the daily volume numbers.., make _every_ trade costly or difficult, and zap the virtual shares,,,,

 

[petit_bateau]

A wise focus. TSLA institutional reluctance , exacerbated by the individual investor concentration for TSLA, so our security practically begs for manipulation. Without question that is a circular argument. A massive position from BlackRock serves a crucial function of reassuring skittish institutional investors, as important a function as the holding itself.

The massive speculative positions will not cease until the retail investors marks diminish as a proportion of the whole. That concentration is a primary reason why most market analysis is so flawed; nearly all generic market modeling is developed using data from securities which have high institutional shareholder concentrations. There is much more evidence, but retail traders are unable to access accurate timely data, so they stand as inevitable losers in the game.

BlackRock is capable of altering that dominance quite quickly.
It would benefit our most enthusiastic derivatives fans to examine market structure as well as trading data. Studying BlackRock itself is an excellent place to learn the value of prudence.

If Blackrock is trying to accumulate .... big if ........ but if

Then other institutionals will also be minded to go into accumulate mode.

So the retail shareholders will need to sell so that institutionals can accumulate.

And all of the institutionals will want to accumulate at low prices, in small nibbles, not driving the price up: promoting dips and then buying those dips.

All of the institutionals will want this this. (But they will also want to get ahead of each other.)

So they all have to co-ordinate in public, so as to strip those retail shares out as quietly and as cheaply as possible.

And the big traders can assist this (those dips, those dips).

So retail need to avoid a mugging ......... if that is what is afoot.

 

[EVMeister]

Haven't watched yet, but this may be of interest to some here. Herbert Ong (Brighter with Herbert) has a YouTube interview with Tasha Keeney from ARK Invest, discussing their $2000 per share price target and autonomy (amongst other things).

 

[Knightshade]

[*]Tesla sets up a system where non-Tesla owners can get referral credits if they buy a Tesla or convince a friend to?

Hasn't that existed for years for anyone with a Tesla account regardless of owning a car? I'd swear I had the ability to give referrals in my Tesla account before I actually owned my first car....

 

[Krugerrand]

So retail need to avoid a mugging ......... if that is what is afoot.

Kind of too late. Several here raised their hands and sold on the way down to $100. You know for bloody sure, a much larger percentage of less conviction retail shareholders capitulated.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Looking at it another way we have

2.5 trillion Gary Black
1-4 Trillion Starfoxisdown
5 Trillion Stephensen IndicatorTM
10 Triilion Drumheller
18 Trillion Artful Dodger

TSLA had a market cap as high as $1.2T in 1 1/2 years ago and as low as $322B six months ago. Current market cap is $870B. We can't even get 2023 right. Projections for 2030 will be no different. There is a very wide range of possibilities. One of those above will be correct.

 

[Maarten]

TSLA had a market cap as high as $1.2T in 1 1/2 years ago and as low as $322B six months ago. Current market cap is $870B. We can't even get 2023 right. Projections for 2030 will be no different. There is a very wide range of possibilities. One of those above will be correct.

My 2030 prediction is $1T-18T.
Your Milage May Vary.

 

[unk45]

If Blackrock is trying to accumulate .... big if ........ but if

Then other institutionals will also be minded to go into accumulate mode.

So the retail shareholders will need to sell so that institutionals can accumulate.

And all of the institutionals will want to accumulate at low prices, in small nibbles, not driving the price up: promoting dips and then buying those dips.

All of the institutionals will want this this. (But they will also want to get ahead of each other.)

So they all have to co-ordinate in public, so as to strip those retail shares out as quietly and as cheaply as possible.

And the big traders can assist this (those dips, those dips).

So retail need to avoid a mugging ......... if that is what is afoot.

Agree mostly. To avoid a mugging, stay away from dark and opaque places. Good principle for pedestrians too. Don’t ever buy anything from a drug dealer. Good principle for longevity. Similarly for securities, the drug dealers are the options markets. They inhabit those ‘dark and opaque places’, and like drug distributors, they write their own rules. The lesson of ‘War Games’ remains valid.

Those are among my life rules. Living, as I have, in war and unruly places, I have never been mugged. (True, though I’m surprised). Back when I was working in securities product design, long long ago, I thought I understood. That I did, but I imagined that I could ‘chip a little’ without harm. As with other hard drugs, it ain’t so. Luckily I lost what I had but it wasn’t much, so I learned.

My two biggest lessons came with helping redesign Global Custody and Global Master Trust. Those two provided the astonishing insight that some markets are well-regulated, some not much at all. Overall that taught that very, very few people understand how much money is in arcane and opaque securities operations, not just trading.

Oddly none of these elements seem to be considered in any trading models, ‘friction’ is not even imagined to exist when disclosed processing fees no longer exist in the US and several other places.

These factors are driving TSLA above all others simply because TSLA is probably the only ‘large cap’ capable of absorbing all that volatility without destruction. Why? Because TSLA maintains such enormous financial discipline that the company is impervious to manipulation precisely because it has zero need to raise new equity. Similarly with a strong free cash flow it can endure all that abuse.

Those are largely why Elon mused about going private. Still, many of us are helping to generate more negative pressure by participating in this charade. Many of us have shorthand HODL. One crucial reason is that tge options market exists today mostly to support those major ’shorts’ whose primary efforts are to destroy the securities they short.

Those practices should have been illegal and from time to time have been. In the US the Glass Steagall act repeal, coupled with the DTC eventually producing instant trading has eliminated the rails. Please think about all that when considering joining ‘the dark side’.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I expect you will see something like a monthly Tesla Charging membership via the Tesla app or the ability to pay as you go, with 10-15% uplift once this all gets sorted out. There have been no details about how pricing will work other than it will be the same pricing, but no explanation about how you get to that real pricing. Tesla still has to have a team of people to update the app, maintain the api, perform testing, design/build/test charging adapters, etc. All those costs need to be burdened by someone, whether it’s the auto manufacturer now and the non-Tesla consumer later remains to be seen.

Here is how it works in Scotland £10 monthly gets lower pricing. I just pay the higher prices for my FIAT500e as it is so infrequent. This is all controlled from the "Charge my non tesla" tab in the Tesla App. I believe this IS going to be huge financially for Tesla. All those modelling 3 billion a year are based on individual owners with low usage. Most of the usage will actually be rideshare/taxi/robotaxi with much higher daily usage (In Dundee the bulk of the 50kw hubs usage is Taxis and almost all of the non tesla charging at the Dundee supercharger is commercial traffic (not so much Taxis yet as the bulk of the Taxis are still chademo Leafs). So I would be in double digit billions at least for this income alone.

 

[jerry33]

If only there was some way to lower the daily volume numbers.., make _every_ trade costly or difficult, and zap the virtual shares,,,,

Sales tax on each trade would do it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Was looking for any Tesla Robot news from Shanghai AI conference, but could only find an unrelated story on how bots will be showing for display - only at Tesla showrooms, this one from NY. Cool attraction, hope that is not the only reason Tesla hired 50 related employees.

I think the show is over now? Says until the 8th which has passed in China.

At least I got my Burnt Hair product! Interesting stuff!

Tesla Optimus robot arrives in stores, you can see it in NYC

 

[SOULPEDL]

Agree , the chart looks good

But I think the future short term direction of TSLA share price will be determined by the Gross Profit margin in the earnings report

A dropping GP % will see the share price likely drop in the short term . An increasing GP % will likely see an increasing share price

Just my 2 cents worth and not investment advice

I wonder about margins from the expense side. Does anyone has a gut feel for capital expenses like for more factory lines and capacity?

We are barely breaking ground in Nevada with Li-Semi factory, Mexico not started, maybe a few presses showed up for cybertruck, so is it possible Tesla went light on expenses in Q2 while also dropping prices… because they can?

 

[insaneoctane]

We have it already in Europe: 13 EUR a month subscription for foreign brands to get the same price per kWh as a Tesla owner, otherwise 10-12% higher price. Likely Tesla will do something similar in the US.

This model would be music to my ears as an investor....something above and beyond just free access and identical pricing for all the Johnny come latelies suckling from the teet for that sweet, sweet Supercharger nectar...

 

[GhostSkater]

Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin TX is a fantastic venue for F1 and many other racing events. It also happens to be quite close to the Austin gigafactory. Maybe we'll see a next gen Roadster racing event there some day. The Ferrari 458 event I saw prior to the big F1 race was quite entertaining. Many of the Ferrari drivers were amateurs and there was an abundance of wrecks. The vintage F1 "race" event was also very cool.

On the Pikes Peak Climb, Unplugged Performance folks said they are waiting for the Roadster to try to take the first place of every class when asked if they would aim for the top

I bet it happens similarly to the Plaid in which they got their hands on one to modify way before the launch

 

[Singuy]

Was looking for any Tesla Robot news from Shanghai AI conference, but could only find an unrelated story on how bots will be showing for display - only at Tesla showrooms, this one from NY. Cool attraction, hope that is not the only reason Tesla hired 50 related employees.

I think the show is over now? Says until the 8th which has passed in China.

At least I got my Burnt Hair product! Interesting stuff!

Tesla Optimus robot arrives in stores, you can see it in NYC

There was a "bot leak" livestream that has now been taken down due to connecting the dot wanting to do some editing(his mic was coming in and out). I didn't listen to it much due to it being excruciating to listen to(felt like it was dragged on). However the rumor was there were some people familiar with the matter saying there are "many bots" at the Tesla gigafactory in Austin, some were put to work. Employees found them pretty creepy during night shift.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677053831157370880

 

[insaneoctane]

My 2030 prediction is $1T-18T.
Your Milage May Vary.

This is correct.

 

[Singuy]

Was watching a Chinese drama with the wife yesterday on netflix. I was excited that the main character was in a Model S after hearing the chime, a quick glance at the instrument panel, and the white seats. Then the camera zoomed out and it was an Xpeng.

The copying is super strong, to the point of using exact tones of the Tesla warning chimes one can't distinguish them if you had your eyes closed.