Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

I'm calling it. next model s refresh will be 420 mile range ... Even if Tesla manage to exceed 420 miles range, they should always offer 420 mile range as a special edition (off menu special!) just for the meme.

You can always rely on Tesla fans to set expectations so unreasonably high that they're guaranteed to be disappointed.

 

[RobStark]

Telling a customer that insist on 500 miles of range you will not sell him a BEV he wants; keep driving the old diesel or buy a new diesel is ecological nonsense.

 

[KarenRei]

New wuwa video - continued incremental progress in construction

 

[davecolene0606]

There's also anti-EV fearmongering about range - always rooted in a bit of reality, such as range loss in the cold.

So 'range anxiety' has a larger than life influence on first time EV buyers - and in that sense that perception should be met by EV makers even if much of it is unjustified fear from the unknown. Airplane makers also do everything in their power to address flying phobia and claustrophobia - range anxiety is a similar phenomenon.

Eventually as charging networks become denser and more reliable and people's road-tripping behavior will change to be more relaxed with more charging stops, demand will naturally shift towards more cost effective battery sizes. But for the time being meeting this need is a valid response to a perceived want by customers, regardless of whether it's fully justified.

Demonstrative of our collective warped sense of reality is owning a car period. With respect to the efficiency of capital use it clearly supports that people will spend unwarranted sums of capital to immunize themselves from perceived corner cases such as the once a year road trip or the need to carry a lot of stuff almost never.

The irony lays in the irrational dismissal of outsize cost for little return when it comes to buying range vs hearing someone complain that 14 bucks to “fill up” at a supercharger is expensive!

But then, how many people insist that paying the stupid tax (lottery) is a good way to spend $.

So yea, a 420 pack is a real thing when it comes to “no brainer” 100 percent adoption.

Fire Away!

 

[KarenRei]

Oh, and to anyone who's baffled as to why TSLAQ on Twitter has taken to dressing in a specific type of clown wig and red nose, and sometimes saying "honk honk" - it's an alt-right meme:

White Nationalists Adopt Clowns as Their Next Racist Symbol (Yes, Seriously) | Right Wing Watch
Clown Pepe / Honk Honk / Clown World | Know Your Meme

Example, for those who don't spend time on Twitter:

I can only *hope* that the vast majority of them have no clue that it's an alt-right meme that they adopted, and that they only adopted it because they saw fellow TSLAQ members using it. Sadly, I may be giving them too much credit...

 

[reardencode]

We need faster charging and a denser fast charging network.
Bigger batteries are ecological nonsense, since they require more energy for ALL of your kilometers (due to the extra weight), while only solving a problem that only exists for a small number of your kilometers.

I’m pretty sure that if gas stations were spaced 100km apart, people would also think they need a bigger fuel tank.

While mostly true, this argument applies to any battery over about 150mi range. So why do Teslas tend to have 300mi range?

For my family 300mi is the bare minimum where charge times are low enough for long road trips; and we can drive up and down mountains from a remote camp site, tolerate vampire drain and still make it to a charger on the way home. I'd gladly pay an extra $5-10k for another 50+mi range.

Edit: grammar

 

[Huskyf]

They make turbo now - Tesla China Factory

 

[jeewee3000]

A compelling S refresh would have to place the car far beyond the top of the line Model 3 in terms of range and performance in order to justify the premium price. 400+ miles and Ludicrous mode standard would probably do it.

Completely disagree. A premium ICE vehicle (example Audi S7: +90.000 EUR) can have similar range and performance to a much cheaper model (Golf GTI Performance: 40.000 EUR).

The premium is justified more by size, ride comfort, luxury interior.

Providing options for bigger batteries for the very wealthy would never hurt though. P200D in a few years anyone? (the Roadster pack basically)

 

[jerry33]

Communication seems to be worst in class at Tesla, I'm 6 months of trying to solve a 5 min issue. I have never seen a more messed up company on communication and CS and marketing blunders. Where to they get their managers, Paypal? This concerns me more than other factors out there, it's like a perpetual glass ceiling.

I've seen far worse. A very long time ago employer took three years to straighten out a $25 billing error. At least fifty correcting invoices were made and hours over the phone. Probably cost $10K to fix the $25 error.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Re range, my few cents.

• always remember that US is quite unique: few nations are vast and used to drive so much.
• OTOH, the bigger the car, the more US-centric it will be.
• people were used to charge their phones once a week. Now they do multiple times a day. It's a completely different approach, and it actually generated an aftermarket of small batteries as a backup.
• the critical factor, I think, is the critical mass of EVs on the road. When you reach the tipping point everything will fall in the right place: disinvestment from fossil fuels, new investment in EVs, batteries, electrification, new chargers.
  
• With EVs, is "show, don't tell". People are emotional about money: of course they get emotional when they need to spend >35k$ for a something. Let them worry about range: show them how you live and drive with a Tesla.
• If the Tesla Network is close, I think it could be the best demand lever of them all: a PR machine of unprecedented proportion. Thousands new potential customers that ride in a Tesla everyday is something that other brands don't have (at least, they all have reached market saturation: for Tesla, it's sea of untapped potential).

 

[jerry33]

I keep seeing people suggest S and X need to get 400~420 miles. I'm wondering who actually need that milage for daily driving? The extra milage will add weight, add cost, reduce efficiency. In my view it's not the best place to put the money. You can recharge it by the end of the day. I would guess 335 miles is sufficient for 95% of people.

There are two very good reasons. The first is trips--particularly trips up north in winter where the 400 mile range declines to a bit over 200. The second is perception. Most people who don't drive EVs believe their cars and trucks have a range between 400 to 700 miles (whether they actually do or not). Until the perception that EVs are short range goes away, EV adoption will not speed up. You can argue that it's not needed for daily driving all you like, but until the perception changes, only a few will be convinced.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I know it sounds silly, but it’s my perception of where we need to be for 100% adoption.

That still leaves a lot of EVs to sell though.

Not speaking to your numerical estimates, but in general, I think you show how it will be wiser to optimize EVs for the large majority. Incidentally, and without specific knowledge of the problem, it's why I'm not enthused with recent pushes for 100% emissions-free or renewable energy mandates. It practically assures measures with a greater impact will be starved of funds.

 

[KarenRei]

There are two very good reasons. The first is trips--particularly trips up north in winter where the 400 mile range declines to a bit over 200.

Not on the highway it doesn't.

 

[Sean Wagner]

The first is trips--particularly trips up north in winter where the 400 mile range declines to a bit over 200.

I doesn't seem like Norway has a problem with EVs at all. Maybe there are also measures that might serve to lengthen useful range that don't depend on more energy storage capacity, akin to pre-heating batteries before supercharging? As a percentage of vehicles sold, hence assisting the ark of EV production and evolution that ultimately benefits everyone, priorities will favor the "easy pickings".

 

[Remus]

Telling a customer that insist on 500 miles of range you will not sell him a BEV he wants; keep driving the old diesel or buy a new diesel is ecological nonsense.

Apple abandoned customers insist on physical keyboard, or replaceable battery. Then they added the headphone jack to the list.

You can't please everyone.

 

[W84M3]

There is a third reason. Bigger battery pack makes charging faster as in time/miles added taking into account the same C-rate + charge speed tapers off later

 

[Antares Nebula]

China's sliding auto sales may be obscuring a change in buyers' tastes

"For some in the industry, they say it will be the smartphone-like interface of the new vehicles that will really attract buyers. Those consumers are increasingly using internet-connected services such as food delivery for daily life, especially in China."

I think that this is a significant aspect of the modern car, in addition to the EV powertrain and autonomous abilities, and a major attractor for the modern tech savvy consumer. Basically, the whole "iPad on wheels" or smartcar aspect, where much of the car can be controlled and improved/upgraded by the carOS, and where users have greater control and interactions with their car via the carOS and smartphone companion app.

Tesla takes pole position on this dimension as well, in addition to its lead on the EV powertrain and autonomous abilities. While the legacy OEMs may be able to compete on the latter two dimensions, they will have a hard time on the software front without partnering with a big software company, like Google, Apple or Microsoft.

 

[TheMrX]

Isn’t that the whole point of constantly expanding the Supercharger network (and making it the largest network of chargers), along with destination charging by local businesses?

Otherwise, why stop at 400? Might as well go to 500, 600, 700, maybe even 1,000 miles. Make the battery pack as large as possible like a bulging battery case for a phone. Or, go so far as selling an external battery pack/charger that you can tow behind the S and X. Then one might not need to charge for a month.

I think announcing a towing package for all models combined with a Tesla trailer that can act either as a supplemental battery for range on the road and a PowerWall while parked at home would be an awesome idea.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

New wuwa video - continued incremental progress in construction

Wow, this thing is going up insanely fast! I wonder if Tesla has the mechanical lines ready to go to install once the structure is done? Looks like this is going to be in Tesla's hands sooner than later. Awesome to see!

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Re range, my few cents.

• always remember that US is quite unique: few nations are vast and used to drive so much.
• OTOH, the bigger the car, the more US-centric it will be.
• people were used to charge their phones once a week. Now they do multiple times a day. It's a completely different approach, and it actually generated an aftermarket of small batteries as a backup.
• the critical factor, I think, is the critical mass of EVs on the road. When you reach the tipping point everything will fall in the right place: disinvestment from fossil fuels, new investment in EVs, batteries, electrification, new chargers.
  
• With EVs, is "show, don't tell". People are emotional about money: of course they get emotional when they need to spend >35k$ for a something. Let them worry about range: show them how you live and drive with a Tesla.
• If the Tesla Network is close, I think it could be the best demand lever of them all: a PR machine of unprecedented proportion. Thousands new potential customers that ride in a Tesla everyday is something that other brands don't have (at least, they all have reached market saturation: for Tesla, it's sea of untapped potential).

As to your first bullet...

My wife and I had the pleasure or visiting your beautiful country last year. This was our very first trip to Europe (I know, we need to get out more). The first and most profound thing I noticed was the difference in how, what and how often people drive. We were in Rome and the VAST majority of cars we saw were Smart Car sized vehicles. Granted this was an urban environment but still it was fascinating to watch Romans go about their business in, what we Americans would consider, micro cars. The driving environment is different. The refueling infrastructure is different. The entire approach to transportation is different. We always tend to believe that what we are used to is the way it is throughout the world. It's not.

Dan