Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

I assume you mean 18650, not 21650... And I agree the architecture is more important than the cells themselves.

Thanks. Edited to fix.

 

[scaesare]

This dead space might be due to RIP flufferbot.
I believe the first M3s built with the fluff did not have the random banging noises coming from the bottom. Now they do, as was recreated by Bjorn.

I'm speaking of the S/X packs, which was the context of this conversation.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

A compelling S refresh would have to place the car far beyond the top of the line Model 3 in terms of range and performance in order to justify the premium price. 400+ miles and Ludicrous mode standard would probably do it.

 

[kyzhk]

A compelling S refresh would have to place the car far beyond the top of the line Model 3 in terms of range and performance in order to justify the premium price. 400+ miles and Ludicrous mode standard would probably do it.

I'm calling it. next model s refresh will be 420 mile range. (335*1.26 ~= 420) - 26% is the pack level energy density improvement in model 3 vs model s (cell level energy density was about the same).

Not necessarily in this upcoming refresh, but eventually.


Even if Tesla manage to exceed 420 miles range, they should always offer 420 mile range as a special edition (off menu special!) just for the meme.

 

[TradingInvest]

I'm calling it. next model s refresh will be 420 mile range. (335*1.26 ~= 420) - 26% is the pack level energy density improvement in model 3 vs model s (cell level energy density was about the same).

Not necessarily in this upcoming refresh, but eventually.

Even if Tesla manage to exceed 420 miles range, they should always offer 420 mile range as a special edition (off menu special!) just for the meme.

I keep seeing people suggest S and X need to get 400~420 miles. I'm wondering who actually need that milage for daily driving? The extra milage will add weight, add cost, reduce efficiency. In my view it's not the best place to put the money. You can recharge it by the end of the day. I would guess 335 miles is sufficient for 95% of people.

 

[RobStark]

OT CO2 Emissions by Country 1961-2017

 

[RobStark]

I keep seeing people suggest S and X need to get 400~420 miles. I'm wondering who actually need that milage for daily driving? The extra milage will add weight, add cost, reduce efficiency. In my view it's not the best place to put the money. You can recharge it by the end of the day. I would guess 335 miles is sufficient for 95% of people.

1)Teslas are not daily commuter cars. They replace ICEv for all driving needs.

2) Very few people buy based on what they need instead they buy in a matrix of what they want and what they can afford. A lot of wealthy people who live in cold regions very much think they need 400 miles of EPA range whilst in winter that really means 250-300 miles. A lot of people want a Model X with 400 miles of EPA range so they can tow their boat in the summer for 250 miles.

3) If Tesla doesn't sell them a BEV with 400 miles of EPA range someone else will. Eventually. Maybe Rivian. Maybe somebody else.

 

[TradingInvest]

OT CO2 Emissions by Country 1961-2017

Per capita numbers would be more meaningful. These numbers can be misleading when a smaller country is actually polluting far more than their fair share.

 

[Carl Raymond]

OT CO2 Emissions by Country 1961-2017

I ranked it informative based on the still.

After watching I unrated. It’s terribly misleading, giving the appearance USA have improved and China are the worst.

Needs to be per capita to be useful. Also needs to keep the scale constant.

 

[RobStark]

Per capita numbers would be more meaningful. These numbers can be misleading when a smaller country is actually polluting far more than their fair share.

Both numbers are meaningful

I think the youtubber will post a per capita vid within a month or so.

If the scale is held constant it would be far less visually interesting. It is a vid not a print journal.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

1)Teslas are not daily commuter cars. They replace ICEv for all driving needs.

2) Very few people buy based on what they need instead they buy in a matrix of what they want and what they can afford. A lot of wealthy people who live in cold regions very much think they need 400 miles of EPA range whilst in winter that really means 250-300 miles. A lot of people want a Model X with 400 miles of EPA range so they can tow their boat in the summer for 250 miles.

3) If Tesla doesn't sell them a BEV with 400 miles of EPA range someone else will. Eventually. Maybe Rivian. Maybe somebody else.

This.....

You gotta remember that while you may be ok with 300 miles and think anything over is overkill, other people have different circumstances. Some live in cold environments, some like to tow, some like to do weekend roadtrips to areas like remote mountains where getting to a charger is inconvenient. There's lots of scenarios where 400 mile range would be very welcome

 

[anthonyj]

The latest Fred article claims there's evidence for the S&X refresh getting 2170 based battery packs but that doesnt jive with recent statements from Musk that they had no plans nor does it make sense if they are already battery constrained with just 2170s for the Model 3. So what gives? Without seeing the evidence it's hard to know but I'm inclined to think the evidence may have been misinterpreted.

Musk says a lot of things. He said all stores were closing and ten days later reversed course. I can make a huge list of things he said and turned out to be opposite. Falcon wing doors on Model Y, alien dreadnought, FSD by 2017, no glass roof and cloth seats on $35k Model Y, funding secured, etc

 

[Artful Dodger]

Both numbers are meaningful

I think the youtubber will post a per capita vid within a month or so.

If the scale is held constant it would be far less visually interesting. It is a vid not a print journal.

A 3-D bar-chart showing County,Time,Cumulative-Emissions (X,Y,Z) would make a striking static graph.

I liked the video above, agree a second one would also be useful.

People need help to visualize the scale of the problem. Then everyone choses Tesla (okay, some also choose other EVs).

Show me the Tesla PICKUP!

 

[Carl Raymond]

This.....

You gotta remember that while you may be ok with 300 miles and think anything over is overkill, other people have different circumstances. Some live in cold environments, some like to tow, some like to do weekend roadtrips to areas like remote mountains where getting to a charger is inconvenient. There's lots of scenarios where 400 mile range would be very welcome

The bigger the range, the higher the fruit. We’re at the beginning of this transition and there’s still plenty of low hanging fruit.

Remember that the ICE competition are not providing an energy system with cost proportional to range. They supply an empty fuel container that costs pittance. Much easier to pick that high hanging fruit later, when cell/pack costs have halved.

 

[EVMeister]

Jeez, do you even read his twitter?

Somebody asked him to make the sheep his profile pic, so he did.
Since the sheep is absolute unit, now Elon is absolute unit too.

I'm aware he posted "absolute unit" with a Merino sheep. I was specifically asking about why his bio says absolūt unit!

 

[Carl Raymond]

More evidence of headline tampering. This time it’s my local ABC.

Originally “
In a muddy field outside Shanghai, Elon Musk's $2b China gamble is taking shape
”

Somehow becomes “
Tesla CEO Elon Musk's massive gamble on China could be thwarted by local rivals
”

There’s nothing in the article supporting the latter headline. It actually makes the case that the locally made cars are boring and the locals love Musk and love Tesla. More profoundly it points out that Teslas made in China will cost half to make, adding greater margin.

Bill Birtles - if this post finds you, please put in a complaint to your editor.

 

[lklundin]

Morning Cornelia has left SFO with destination Panama, ETA April 26 at 11 (UTC),
MORNING CORNELIA Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9519145) - VesselFinder

 

[Mobius484]

Anybody get an idea of how many cars the boat has? Surely people are scoping pier 80...

 

[lklundin]

This is my final post on the subject.

Thank you.

 

[lklundin]

Zso Zso, Sad but true. I believe everything you are saying here.
Perhaps Tesla can manufacture a Canadian version M3 with battery inhibitor to get within the <$45k price with option to upgrade battery OTA to match it's current pricing. A shame Ontario Gov't is allowing EV rebates for hybrid vehicles which are nothing more than BEV wannabees. I recall another TMC member mentioning the lack of EV rebates for Tesla compared with other EVs as a badge of honour as Tesla EVs do not need incentives to flourish while all other EV manufactures need them.

How much can Tesla shave off the Model 3 base price with some discount wheels/tires ?