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The pic is the new version.
Old:
4. The Full Self Driving capability can only be transferred once and so cannot be transferred to another vehicle or to another person even if the vehicle is privately sold. This offer cannot be combined with any other promotion, and is not redeemable for cash.

New:
4. The Full Self Driving Capability can only be transferred this one time. This offer cannot be combined with any other promotion, is not redeemable for cash, and cannot be assigned to another person.

The update takes out that transferred FSD gets removed if you sell the car.

The final "cannot be assigned to another person" means they won't transfer person A's FSD to person B's new car.
Thanks @mongo
 
2 cybertrucks left the factory in a enclosed car carrier (I've never seen this type of car carrier). Source greggertruck


F1reqacaMAA2dua
 
I'm still not sure the semi doesn't take the 2170 production as the powerwall moves to LFP and Y to 4680. The planned semi production could consume Reno GF 2170 production. I just don't know if the 4680 ramp, behind schedule as it is, will ramp fast enough to get the 4680 production up by 2024 to build Semi with 4680. The 2170 is going somewhere and I assume other than the M3 (due to revamp).
Does anyone have a road map/timeline for what was proposed at battery day vs where we are now?
 
The pic is the new version.
Old:
4. The Full Self Driving capability can only be transferred once and so cannot be transferred to another vehicle or to another person even if the vehicle is privately sold. This offer cannot be combined with any other promotion, and is not redeemable for cash.

New:
4. The Full Self Driving Capability can only be transferred this one time. This offer cannot be combined with any other promotion, is not redeemable for cash, and cannot be assigned to another person.

The update takes out that transferred FSD gets removed if you sell the car.

The final "cannot be assigned to another person" means they won't transfer person A's FSD to person B's new car.
There's still, I think, a possibly serious gotcha.

Back in 2016, Tesla said that every car they produce will have all the hardware needed for self-driving: "We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver."


When I bought my two Teslas at the end of 2017 (S & 3), that's what I expected. That's what I still expect, if Tesla ever delivers on working FSD.

I'm not at all sure that new cars still guarantee that. And the language in this new FSD transfer option is very specific: you are not transferring anything, rather you are forfeiting the old and getting the new FSD for no charge. It seems clear that the terms and conditions on the new FSD are what will govern.

And it doesn't seem to me that there's any language protecting new FSD buyers in the case that hardware upgrades are needed in order for the car to get to any particular level at all, never mind "full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." So it seems to me that if Tesla eventually gets to real FSD, but requires HW4 or HW5 or better sensors or something, then my 2017 FSD vehicles will have to be upgraded at Tesla's expense, but a new vehicle wouldn't.

Anybody know for sure?
 
If the 80%/qtr Austin cell ramp rate can be maintained then by the end of 2024 it might be possible for Austin Y production to be at the max throughput for the originally intended machinery, i.e. 4 lines of 4680 @10GWh/yr per line feeding into 500k per year of Y production @80kWh pack per Y. That seems to have been the original intent.

I think it requires the full intent of the 4680 project to realise the 10 GWh/line capacity. So there are some as-yet-unproven bits that are vital ingredients.
10GW capacity per line only applies to the Kato Rd pilot facility. My understading is the new full production lines at Austin, Nevada etc are 25GW per line, bringing the total planned production capacity at Austin to 100GWh/yr.

I quoted the source for this as the limiting factor in my post below from May.

Good summary but I note one clarification. My understanding is that the planned capacity for 4680 production at Austin is 100GWh, similar to that planned for Nevada.

According to the Limiting Factor (see video below @17:30), Tesla are currently working to fully ramp a single 4680 production line with a capacity of 25GWh. Additionally in the Q4 2022 earnings call Drew said "As far as where we stand in Texas, 1 of 4 lines are in production, with the remaining 3 stages of commissioning and install". So once Tesla have ironed out the kinks and ramped production they will have 4 lines in Austin producing 4 x 25 = 100GWh.

 
So it seems to me that if Tesla eventually gets to real FSD, but requires HW4 or HW5 or better sensors or something, then my 2017 FSD vehicles will have to be upgraded at Tesla's expense, but a new vehicle wouldn't.
This is my understanding as well.

There is a population of vehicles, perhaps a few hundred thousand, that were sold with this explicit understanding. It would seem that this population should be bracketed and this “amnesty” should be formalized for these original owners at least. There was no time limit.

Whether it is these vehicles and all FUTURE owners of these particular vehicles is less clear IMO.

Were this ”amnesty“ to be formalized for this particular population of vehicles and owners without time limit, this would be a reasonable accommodation.
 
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This is my understanding as well.

There is a population of vehicles, perhaps a few hundred thousand, that were sold with this explicit understanding. It would seem that this population should be bracketed and this “amnesty” should be formalized for these original owners at least. There was no time limit.

Whether it is these vehicles and all FUTURE owners of these particular vehicles is less clear IMO.

Were this ”amnesty“ to be formalized for this particular population of vehicles and owners without time limit, this would be a reasonable accommodation.
The accommodation would be nice (speaking as a HW3 owner myself), however it would only be available once Tesla has solved FSD - otherwise there is no "evidence" that FSD won't work on HW3. At that point in time Tesla would be compensating these owners with an asset that cold generate hundreds of thousands of dollars - probably easier just to give the owners back the money they paid for FSD.
 
@Mungo calculated a increase in yield from 55% to 73%, for the record I calculated ,70% to 98%, but I have low confidence in my calculation.

All we can confidently say is it is very likely Austin yields are now in the 70%.-98% range.

Initially at Austin they were stockpiling 4680 packs and working on the yield on 1 on 4 lines, they were probably recently doing batch production switching between 4680 and 2170 packs.

As strange as it may seem yields at Austin were probably lower than yields at Kato road for some time.,

They have recently split into separate parallel production lines, this implies to me that Austin yields are no longer a major problem and are in the same general ballpark as Kato Rd.

The 80% lift in production capacity can't be explained by improved yield alone, most probably they are started ramping the other 3 4680 lines at Austin, but my hunch is those ramps are still early stages.

Similar to Mongo I considered any cell that failed quality checks to be an 100% loss, in part because a lot of the cost is the manufacturing cost and in part due to the lack of a working onsite Cathode plant, meaning that any cell recycling can't completely close the loop, cathodes need to be imported.

Working on yields before ramping additional lines also made efficient use of raw materials including imported cathode materials which can not easily be replaced.
The batch production up until some point early 2023, replaced by two parallel lines with one for structural 4680 and the other for non structural 2170 in recent months, makes a lot of sense, thank you. It is only since the beginning of the year that the combined 4680 volumes have reached approximate parity with 2170 allocations (imho).

1690102859651.png


My other thought was that from memory Battery Day occurred before the IRA was proposed or certainly well before any details were clear.

In house 4680 production, a cathode plant and Lithium refinery are the perfect response to IRA in addition to any other benefits.

According to Battery Day Cathode changes were an additional 12% per kWh cost reduction, obviously that doesn't kick in until the Cathode plant is built.

My overall take on Drew's comments is that Tesla has fallen over the line on the energy density and cost needed to start CT production, ramping volumes is a work in progress,

The next locations for 4680 production are:-
  • Berlin (Model Y)
  • Mexico (Gen 3)
  • Sparks Nevada (Semi)
It is hard to guess what the relative priorities will be, my hunch is that most of the hard slog on the Austin ramp will be complete by the middle of 2024. As far as we know Mexico and Sparks construction has not yet started.

They may do Berlin next and it may be a simple copy-and-paste of the final Austin lines, IMO Berlin could be a 6 month project, and could be largely complete by the end of 2024, or at least at a stage where local teams can take over.

Anything they learned along the way at Austin, they don't need to learn twice. Austin was the first attempt at high volume 4680 production.
Agree.

Battery Day was 100 GWh/year in 2022, from last estimates and data Tesla themselves shared they are somewhere between 2 to 3 GWh/year

I think Q2 2023 had Tesla at approx 1.5 GWh of 4680 production, i.e. 6 GWh/yr if that same production had continued for four quarters.

By comparison total Tesla cell consumption in 2023 is likely going to be 140-150 GWh in vehicles, and a further approx 20 GWh in stationary storage.

Clearly the 4680 production is only a fraction of what Tesla is using, so it is fortunate that the Chinese LFP solution is delivering the necessary.

10GW capacity per line only applies to the Kato Rd pilot facility. My understading is the new full production lines at Austin, Nevada etc are 25GW per line, bringing the total planned production capacity at Austin to 100GWh/yr.

I quoted the source for this as the limiting factor in my post below from May.


"Good summary but I note one clarification. My understanding is that the planned capacity for 4680 production at Austin is 100GWh, similar to that planned for Nevada.

According to the Limiting Factor (see video below @17:30), Tesla are currently working to fully ramp a single 4680 production line with a capacity of 25GWh. Additionally in the Q4 2022 earnings call Drew said "As far as where we stand in Texas, 1 of 4 lines are in production, with the remaining 3 stages of commissioning and install". So once Tesla have ironed out the kinks and ramped production they will have 4 lines in Austin producing 4 x 25 = 100GWh."


I'd love Limiting Factor to be correct that the four Austin lines are each 25GWh/yr, rather than the nominal objective of 10 GWh/yr from the one Kato line. However I don't see actual evidence in that video that this is so. It seems to me that LF are making one assumption too many without solid evidence. I'd love LF to be correct mind you.

Nevertheless I don't think that will really have any bearing until end 2024. Even if Austin can continue to ramp 4680 cell rates at 80%/qtr it is only at the end of 2024 that the rate would reach 40 GWh/yr in the success case. And that 40 GWh/yr of 4680 is assuming they solve the materials supply issues, and everything else that is still in the unsolved pile. So it is only in 2025 that it might become apparent whether new 10 GWh/yr lines are needed at Austin, or whether the existing lines really do have a nominal 25 GWh/yr capacity each.

Hopefully long before then Tesla will fill private investors in with public domain information as to what is really going on. I rather feel as if institutional investors are starting with a information level full of confident knowns based on structured factory tours in a way that remote private investors don't have. That is somewhat tedious.
 
The accommodation would be nice (speaking as a HW3 owner myself), however it would only be available once Tesla has solved FSD - otherwise there is no "evidence" that FSD won't work on HW3. At that point in time Tesla would be compensating these owners with an asset that cold generate hundreds of thousands of dollars - probably easier just to give the owners back the money they paid for FSD.
Timeline could be:
V12 (Diffusion, end to end) is prioritised on HW3 and works perfectly in 2023 / early 2024
If not, HW4 is prioritised and works 2024/5
Following that, knowledge of what works is then slimmed down to work on HW3 in 2025/6
 
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At that point in time Tesla would be compensating these owners with an asset that cold generate hundreds of thousands of dollars - probably easier just to give the owners back the money they paid for FSD.
I don’t remember this as a “or your money back” proposition.

It was clear that it might be that FSD could not be achieved in which case no harm no foul. If Tesla stopped equipping vehicles with FSD HW and SW, then obligation met.
 
@Mungo calculated ....
Maybe meant @mongo ?

We do have a user here by that name, but only 11 posts, and mostly about tires.

@mongo is one of the more thoroughly knowledgeable posters about a wide variety of topics than I've encountered online. And not only does he often cite sources and provide references, but his interaction style is very even keel.