Tesla is the only company on earth right now with a profitable FSD business...so yeah I am insinuating that Tesla has a profitable FSD business.I would say your first sentence contradicts itself based on any study of economic history, including an analysis of Tesla as you are insinuating that somehow Tesla has a profitable FSD solution...which they don't. Was Amazon a competitor in e-commerce? They didn't make money for a decade but they had a solution and were dominate. Uber in rideshare? Uber is a capital destroying monster but has a solution and maybe just maybe has found profits. We have no idea what Teslas solution will be, at this time it is years away from a product so purely academic. What we do know is that the industry is in the very infancy, two entities have products in the USA and several have products in China. Nobody knows how they'll get to market at scale but only these 2 have products. Tesla doesn't. Waymo is the clearest but I still wouldn't bet that we understand the strategy in full. When Tesla can deliver a FSD Robotaxi then we'll know how Tesla plans to attack the market and be able to discuss Tesla as a competitor to Waymo or Cruise.
Point 3 is obviously incorrect. That is a potential way for Tesla to differentiate but clearly absolutely not a requirement. Rideshare profits are in urban metro regions. Why offer anything else unless govt subsidies support it? Uber, Didi, Lyft, Grab has already profit tested the business models. I can't get an Uber to my home and I can't get one at my parents house. I see no reason for Tesla to offer a robotaxi in either location.
Without a doubt Tesla is the best positioned to actually build a robotaxi and software. Maybe unique in this regards. FSD can also become a very profitable product without robotaxis. EM has also said something else about robotaxis- he said it was critical for Tesla to have a solution early in the field.
My last post on any of these for a few years- right now its just been the same rehash as last year with the only update being Waymo and Cruise are moving to offer actual services at a faster and faster rate. For you investors this is just a data point to watch- how much of your investment thesis is FSD robotaxi revenue?
Point 3 is the most important because as of today, 99.999% of the US transportation has been sold to people in the form of public, ride hailing, or personal transportation. There are certain ingredients you need to sell transportation to people and steal from the current saturated market share.
1. Time saving and comfort = biggest reason why people choose cars/trains/planes over walking.
2. Cost = second biggest reason why people choose what they choose
Are waymos cheaper than incumbent transport alternatives?
Are waymos faster than incumbent alternatives?
If both answers are no, then what is the point of a waymo? Selling novelty can only get you so far. Because "I would like to pay 3x more and get to my destination 3x slower..." is said by no one ever in the history of people paying for transport (unless if the transport vehicle is the actual event..think cruising or the novelty of sitting in a waymo to take a selfie).