bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The Waymoites in the Waymo thread had a fit when I pointed out similar poor experiences in SF.
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Discussing Robotaxi competitors is not FUD. You all can't just take any critical angle as FUD, it's intellectually lazy.
Ok how do you pick that number out of ...well where ever you picked it. "in a fully mature system robotaxi are 10-60% fo the global fleet". I mean...how can you type something about the future and make any such assertion about something that has never been done. Besides which that number is just meaningless. Might as well say it is 1-99% somewhere in that bounded area.The Robotaxi fleet is likely to be driven by an app similar to Uber, any change in this area is a software / map update.
For pickup the customer will stand in a safe / convenient location, the default assumption for a Robotaxi fleet is that any safe pickup location is also a safe drop off location.
The next step is giving the customer the option to decline a drop off location and select a better one.
Initially some Tesla staff can just map safe pickup / drop off locations in cites.
In the long run FSD can try to learn the visual aspects of safe pickup / drop off locations.
IMO fundamentally Waymo and Cruise don't have a solution which economically scales to the required fleet size. In a fully mature system, Robotaxis are 10%-60% of the global vehicle fleet.
What would it cost Waymo and Cruise to put 1 Million Robotaxis on US roads, and how long would it take?
A very good post from an investment POV.I think it is fair to discuss the FSD competitors as a growing threat to TSLA valuation. Elon keeps insisting that a FSD Robotaxi fleet is the future cash cow of Tesla automotive, and yet we dont see Tesla operating a single driveleress robotaxi while competitors are now in 8 cities with rapid expansion plans underway.
There are two distinctly separate FSD robotaxi systems that are already operating successfully. One of those companies just said it only took a few weeks to tweak the system in preparation for adding Austin to its network.
(I’m glad they are entering Austin, it might annoy Elon enough seeing them every day that he actually pushes Tesla to start a driverless robotaxi trial).
I don’t care if these robotaxis aren’t going to operate in bumpkinville nowhereland with a population of 57 people - a robotaxi service will follow the Uber rollout and focus on where the vast bulk of demand is: cities.
Tesla may be ahead in developing a truly “drive anywhere“ FSD system, but that is a different product than the business model for a robotaxi service.
Elon is perhaps letting perfect (a true drive anywhere FSD system), get in the way of good (a city by city rollout of a driverless robotaxi fleet that requires hardcoding some intersections/maps)
I think it is fair to discuss the FSD competitors as a growing threat to TSLA valuation. Elon keeps insisting that a FSD Robotaxi fleet is the future cash cow of Tesla automotive, and yet we dont see Tesla operating a single driveleress robotaxi while competitors are now in 8 cities with rapid expansion plans underway.
There are two distinctly separate FSD robotaxi systems that are already operating successfully. One of those companies just said it only took a few weeks to tweak the system in preparation for adding Austin to its network.
(I’m glad they are entering Austin, it might annoy Elon enough seeing them every day that he actually pushes Tesla to start a driverless robotaxi trial).
I don’t care if these robotaxis aren’t going to operate in bumpkinville nowhereland with a population of 57 people - a robotaxi service will follow the Uber rollout and focus on where the vast bulk of demand is: cities.
Tesla may be ahead in developing a truly “drive anywhere“ FSD system, but that is a different product than the business model for a robotaxi service.
Elon is perhaps letting perfect (a true drive anywhere FSD system), get in the way of good (a city by city rollout of a driverless robotaxi fleet that requires hardcoding some intersections/maps)
Bu is it more "cab forward"?The CT frunk looks smaller than the Lightning frunk but easier to access than the R1T frunk. It's a decent compromise which allows the more cab forward design of the CT, which is more important in my opinion.
Nope. I refused to sign the NDA, which later was dropped, but too late for them anyway.Have you actually ridden in a Waymo?
This has the appearance of growth, but I see it as doubling down with high risk, and will require tons more cash.
Cruise and Waymo both made this decision because Uber has finally shown profitability:Cruise and Waymo are expanding real robo-taxi services.
Self-Driving Taxis Took Over San Francisco. Guess Where They’re Going Now?
After pilot programs in a few cities, autonomous vehicles are about to expand in a big way.slate.com
This is problematic for TSLA investors, as margins have been compressed, many of this forum have changed their tune to focusing more on FSD as the main driver of future earnings growth.
Yes Waymo and Cruise rely on Lidar and HD maps (big nothingburgers) and bigger computers that cost more $$$, but they are beginning to capture the hearts and minds of people who experience this new technology. Unlike sexy EVs, Tesla is not at the forefront and will not be the brand associated with the tech.
Meanwhile Tesla is nowhere close to starting robotaxi services. Even if the software improves 10x, it won't be good enough for robotaxi. It likely needs to get 100x better, so that's going to take a few years. And then on top of that, its going to take time to actually ramp robotaxi services (and work out the kinks) even after the software is a safe driver.
So Cruise and Waymo are going to have another 2-3 years of easy expansion (much like Tesla did in EVs for a decade).
While Tesla may overcome this at some point, I don't see how this could be good for valuation in the next few years. How will investors gain confidence Tesla can actually secure much of this market when they see competitors way out ahead earning robotaxi revenue and growing services rapidly?
Cruise and Waymo both made this decision because Uber has finally shown profitability:
Uber is now a profitable, cash-generating machine | TechCrunch
It is Cruise and Waymo that are falling behind.
I'm not sure what your point is. No one has demonstrated how to make robotaxis profitable. At least Uber can make their ride share operation profitable, even if it did require assuming billions in debt and take an endless amount of time. Is the expense related to the driver the main reason for this? Time will tell.They have less than 5% marketshare of taxi rides in the city they are in but yea it's a good idea to expand.
The point is there's no demand for robotaxies but they keep expanding cities..which was a sarcastic remark to the person I was replying to, agreeing that these companies are just appearing to expand but are actually just bleeding cash.I'm not sure what your point is. No one has demonstrated how to make robotaxis profitable. At least Uber can make their ride share operation profitable, even if it did require assuming billions in debt and take an endless amount of time. Is the expense related to the driver the main reason for this? Time will tell.
Without profitability, the robotaxi concept is right there in the tech dustbin along with 3D television.
Gotcha. You might want to use /s next time.The point is there's no demand for robotaxies but they keep expanding cities..which was a sarcastic remark to the person I was replying to, agreeing that these companies are just appearing to expand but are actually just bleeding cash.
I provided a broad range of numbers due to the uncertainty.Ok how do you pick that number out of ...well where ever you picked it. "in a fully mature system robotaxi are 10-60% fo the global fleet". I mean...how can you type something about the future and make any such assertion about something that has never been done. Besides which that number is just meaningless. Might as well say it is 1-99% somewhere in that bounded area.
Waymo is contracting with Greely. I million cars would be 50 billion or so. About 8 months of Google profits. How long does it take greely to deliver ...I would guess 4-6 years. Just a hairy guess but they are building a custom robotaxi sans driver platform.
...and yet, the supercharger network does actually generate a profit.Wow, relying on Tesla for supercharging...so? Tesla just stated they wouldn't even be charger other OEMs higher rates to use the network! This is not a big profit generator for Tesla.
Some more cost savings in HW4 infotainment (on Y at least)- apparently they halved the RAM and local storage compared to HW3 Ryzen
Agreed about the waymo model being doomed. Not so sure about FSD L-5 being years away (means 5-10 years). Just drove to NE on .4. Significant improvement. Only one takeover on a one lane both ways construction zone (out of the six times--3 zones times 2 ways). This was the first time that the car made it on the turn through Oklahoma City without a takeover. I'm even finding that I'm using it most of the time on surface streets around DFW--works great in almost all cases if you don't use the Nav system--urban only, trip always use Nav. Still urban surface, there is still a significant problem with map-vs-vision (weird lane changes, often turns one corner too soon, doesn't stay a fixed distance from the centre line, takes too many minor streets compared to more trafficked streets, wants to do the speed limit rather than a safe speed on those minor streets. Minor means residential with cars parked on both sides leaving only one lane for both directions)....and yet, the supercharger network does actually generate a profit.
How about waymo and cruise? whats the profit margin for them? I love how you use the term 'not a big profit generator' for something that actually exists, but hand-wave away the ludicrously loss-making cash-burning mess that is waymo and cruise because.... reasons.
- If waymo actually had the same number of driverless miles as Tesla I'd be worried (they are below 0.1% as I recall?)
- If waymo currently made a profit I'd be worried
- If waymo actually made their own cars and didn't have to pay a profit-margin to a 3rd party I'd be worried.
I am so not worried. I'm very bearish on FSD. I think robotaxi is many years away. I have zero doubt Tesla get their first. HD maps are out of date the nanosecond they are recorded, and LIDAR sucks in bad weather. There is NO answer to these criticisms of the ridiculous waymo model. They are doomed by design and will never get free of their local maxima.