Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

In a perfect world, yes. However, we still have the element of 'human' drivers that are pre-occupied with tasks such as texting, eating, (anything else that causes them to be distracted),etc while driving

That's quite the negative nancy comment, didn't expect that coming from you!

 

[betstarship]

While this sounds good, it's a long way off based on my FSBb experiences. I know this was a talking point since 2019 and its one that led to me buying FSD. It does not resonate with me anymore. I did buy the dream that it was "right around the corner" at first. It's still there just around the Dojo corner, maybe.

I had FSDb for $2000 and did not buy it on my recent purchase based on its performance over 140k miles and 3 years. I did buy enhanced Autopilot, as that works pretty well on divided highways. Only 2 times has the car headed right for a concrete divider while in FSDb on a divided highway with high g-force intervention required to prevent a collision.

I bought the subscription for FSDb on my new Y and let it lapse last month. It was still unable to drive without phantom braking on a 2 lane-divided highway which is perfectly straight without mistaking a mirage of hot pavement for an imminent collision. This was the same as 3 years ago when the previous vehicle was equipped with radar it still had the same phantom braking issues through the desert. Yesterday it attempted to pull right into the traffic stream on a right-on-red situation.

I don't post here as often as I used to but in my lurking, I just had to say something about this comment. Waymo and Cruise have accomplished driverless robotaxis, though the sensor and compute overhead is too high at the moment.

I had much of my investment in TSLA but am slowly moving it into real estate at this point.

The Tesla folks keep talking about licensing FSD during the earnings calls. That's a signal on its own. Further, many partner contracts get made for double-digit improvement in a primary feature's functionality for a single company. I'll put a guess out there that FSD already would give triple digit improvement in safety from their "competitors" such as Cruise and Waymo.

 

[capster]

I think you are off by a few years on the latter. Then again there is a lot of pressure now to move the progress needle on FSD at a much faster rate than it has been. (Which has been very little at least for us). It wouldn’t surprise me to see more manpower put into this in the next year or three. Without some serious progress in the next year or three the ongoing shifting FSD promise will lose its attraction to investors.

Jmho.

This is too conservative, imho, given Dojo compute capacity forecasts. 2027 feels too late, but I'm an Optimus.

In "The Singularity is Near", it's quite clear that growth in AI is expected to be exponential. So past performance does not translate to future trends very well. It's been "never cry wolf" so many times, but that has no bearing on growth from this time forward.

Therefore, I would not be surprised for some initial robo-revenue $$ by next year's end. There's very little cost side to the equation (besides FSD insurance internally, and cleaning fees). Once it starts, I expect instant cash-flow positive (unlike rivals) and VERY rapid expansion of the service. This is the mission focus.

Well, I can‘t feel too bad about my forecast if I immediately get a that’s too soon and a that’s too late .

To add some detail:

I expect Tesla will say FSD is no longer Beta by the end of 2024. Will that mean FSD is going to be good enough right when they do so—for most every situation, most every place, mostly all of the time—for (general) robotaxi use? I don’t think so. There‘s also some chance HW3 will need upgrading for robotaxi use.

I agree that there is a good chance that Tesla will see some robotaxi revenue as soon as next year, if only from Boring Company tunnel use. And, yes, I’m optimistic about Optimus too.

Indeed, I also think that robotaxis have the potential have broad utility well before 2027, though it’s not entirely a technical question. Elon stated during the last earnings call that Tesla was seeking more compute power (not more people) and, lo, pretty soon the Saudis and the UAE announce large purchases of Nvidia AI chips. Of course, denying those chips to Tesla had nothing to do with their decisions /s. Any ensuing slow down of Tesla’s efforts might be as little as a month, possibly three, and, possibly though very unlikely, as much as a year.

I was talking about robotaxis being an appreciable factor in the evolution of the auto market in 2027; one would be nuts to wait till then to position their portfolio for robotaxi breakout.

Personally, I’m positioned for Tesla to throw the switch on robotaxis today. Which is to say, I’m pretty much all in and will continue to hold (I’ll be rolling what LEAP calls I have back into shares probably well before robotaxis are a factor, but I wouldn’t mind if Tesla were to throw that switch soon ).

Saudi Arabia and UAE race to buy Nvidia chips to power AI ambitions

Gulf nations acquire thousands of GPUs amid global shortage of semiconductors needed to build large language models

www.ft.com

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla is now outselling Toyota in California. And Tesla is now tied with Lexus for #1 in customer satisfaction.

 

[unk45]

This is too conservative, imho, given the history of market disruptions by new technology. Further, robotaxis will almost certainly be a significant (decisive?) factor by 2030 and certainly before 2035.

I‘m still holding to my 2024 forecast for FSD. For my own planning, I’m pegging appreciable robotaxi use very likely no later than sometime in 2027.

I am considering infrastructure, so comparing with spread of electric refrigerator and motorcars. Both were very rapid but actually took a couple decades to replace the vast majority of prior practice around the world.

In the early 1950's there was still an icebox in the house I lived in, no telephone, no electricity. That was actually in the USA, far Southern Ohio. Of course my family and all that long before then, in the early 1900's in Southern California and my relatives in Rio de Janeiro had them too. When we see the world dominance fo renewables and of BEV adoption we need to consider all the words, not just the wealthy urban parts. It's perilously easy to imagine otherwise. Perhaps I am too conservative in my outlook because I remember other times.

Still, I have two BEV in two countries with others readily available when traveling and consume social media rather too much, and travel entirely too much.
That makes me rather sensitive to what in marketing we call 'mother-in-law research. Above all we need to avoid extrapolating from personal experience. I've made such mistakes much too frequently.

 

[EQC_]

Unfortunately, I don't think the used car market is ready to properly value used BEVs yet. There still exists concerns over battery longevity and replacement costs. Previous generation products like the Nissan Leaf, or even the recent Bolt battery issues don't help perceptions. Until we start to see some reputable hard data to promote the fact that BEVs likely have significantly lower TCO over 200K+ miles, I feel older, higher milage BEVs will be valued artifically well below what they ought to be.

Agreed. I think a big part of it is also that people get used to continued payments over time, even if it accumulates into a huge sum, but don't want to "expect" a single high payment. $150 per month on gasoline forever (plus the prospect of rising gas prices) often seems less bad than spending $10K to replace a battery at some point in a 10 year window...but if you do the math, the gasoline costs way more.

Might be clever for Tesla to come up with some sort of monthly payment "battery insurance" plan, or even just a monthly payment system after battery replacement. Probably a good 5-8 year warranty on any battery replacement too. They'd need to show that the "battery payment" plus the cost of electricity over time is less than the cost of gasoline + ICE maintenance for a similar driving pattern on a used ICE car....

 

[Singuy]

Perhaps it is, but on a perfectly straight road with literally no cars for 0.5 miles I am phantom braking from 85 to 70 mph at least 1 time per 5 miles.

My model Y would also have crashed, when it changed lanes from the fast lane, into the shoulder across the left yellow line on Highway 85, and was driving in the shoulder headed for the concrete divider that narrows with the overhead signs. This was at 2 pm in relatively light traffic.

When I say Waymo and Cruise are successful, I mean they are actually doing it.

Waymo and Cruise are not allowed to operate at 85mph or 70mph. Cruise max speed is 35mph and Waymo I believe is 65mph. Also both are not allowed on hwy. Your bar is still set higher than those two companies.

Sounds like your issue is just bad map data of a certain area and also you should maybe try to let the car do its thing before correcting it(in a safe manner) before judging it. I have a concrete divider that looks like the car will hit it everyday but it merges just fine.

 

[jerry33]

I am considering infrastructure, so comparing with spread of electric refrigerator and motorcars. Both were very rapid but actually took a couple decades to replace the vast majority of prior practice around the world.

In the early 1950's there was still an icebox in the house I lived in, no telephone, no electricity. That was actually in the USA, far Southern Ohio. Of course my family and all that long before then, in the early 1900's in Southern California and my relatives in Rio de Janeiro had them too. When we see the world dominance fo renewables and of BEV adoption we need to consider all the words, not just the wealthy urban parts. It's perilously easy to imagine otherwise. Perhaps I am too conservative in my outlook because I remember other times.

Still, I have two BEV in two countries with others readily available when traveling and consume social media rather too much, and travel entirely too much.
That makes me rather sensitive to what in marketing we call 'mother-in-law research. Above all we need to avoid extrapolating from personal experience. I've made such mistakes much too frequently.

FWIW, when growing up in the '50s, I can recall seeing ice boxes on TV and in movies but not in anyone's house nor at any of the farm houses I visited. (Note: Nebraska is not known for cutting edge technology)

 

[bkp_duke]

Perhaps it is, but on a perfectly straight road with literally no cars for 0.5 miles I am phantom braking from 85 to 70 mph at least 1 time per 5 miles.

My model Y would also have crashed, when it changed lanes from the fast lane, into the shoulder across the left yellow line on Highway 85, and was driving in the shoulder headed for the concrete divider that narrows with the overhead signs. This was at 2 pm in relatively light traffic.

When I say Waymo and Cruise are successful, I mean they are actually doing it.

My rideshare rides in Waymo and Cruise must be WAY different than yours. Both in SF back in June had multiple problems requiring "remote intervention" from their teams.

 

[elasalle]

Maybe your bar is set way too high? Cruise certainly doesn't care to master phantom braking prior to rolling out their robotaxies. Wait sorry, you just need to slap a warning sticker on the back glass and call it a day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693683263079055675

Nor do they care to solve cross traffic red light runners even though it has side cameras and lidar. I get it if a human didn't see the incoming car but certainly a Tesla would not move into this intersection even if the light turned green.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693277980011721175

Example of FSD reacting to red light runners.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628194758072885249

How come FSD, Autopilot , robotaxi etc don't get parking/driving violation citations? or do they?

Every incident should be fined, you should come ready to pay all penalties ... that could be the deterrent needed

 

[MartinAustin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693873523985674644

I really hope Tesla is viewing the Cybertruck as the first entry into the "Cyber" collection that will have a Model 3, Y, S, X and Compact versions. Sure a Cyber S/X is overkill but omg can you imagine falcon wing doors on Cyber X

Tesla excels in minimize product catalogue for efficiency but as Tesla grows volume into the scale of Toyota and beyond, I think having the normal Tesla lineup and the Cyber equivalent would give Tesla's entire product category enough variety to sell 15-20 million cars a year and knowing Tesla, they would smartly make the platform between a regular 3 and a Cyber 3 the same to where they continue to share efficiencies

(Market is closed) I enjoy looking at renders as much as the rest of you, but why do these 3d artists think Tesla has suddenly become able to make curved stainless steel vehicles? They haven't. Stainless steel is super strong. Curved/stamped stainless steel wears out the stamping dies super-quick and is not profitable. The Cybertruck is made from flat pieces of steel. Even the holes where the door handles were on the prototype got removed in an optimisation. Stainless steel is difficult to manufacture vehicles with

 

[Vines]

Waymo and Cruise are not allowed to operate at 85mph or 70mph. Cruise max speed is 35mph and Waymo I believe is 65mph. Also both are not allowed on hwy. Your bar is still set higher than those two companies.

Sounds like your issue is just bad map data of a certain area and also you should maybe try to let the car do its thing before correcting it(in a safe manner) before judging it. I have a concrete divider that looks like the car will hit it everyday but it merges just fine.

I was traveling in the fast lane, no merges, no options to change lanes from that lane for 1 mile behind me and 20 miles in front of me. FSDb changes lanes over the yellow line, drives on the shoulder and heads toward a concrete divider. Yes, I intervened safely, no this is more than just some bad mapping. This is like 5 miles from Tesla HQ.

I might be expecting too much and have spoken with my dollars with regard to FSDb. You are right, it is a great idea to take another ride in a Robotaxi through SF now that they are operating in more busy hours. I think it will be a long time if ever before Tesla will be licensing to Waymo or Cruise.

 

[2daMoon]

(Market is closed) I enjoy looking at renders as much as the rest of you, but why do these 3d artists think Tesla has suddenly become able to make curved stainless steel vehicles? They haven't. Stainless steel is super strong. Curved/stamped stainless steel wears out the stamping dies super-quick and is not profitable. The Cybertruck is made from flat pieces of steel. Even the holes where the door handles were on the prototype got removed in an optimisation. Stainless steel is difficult to manufacture vehicles with

The concept of there someday being a flurry of Cyber vehicles is a good one, but I agree, one look at the renders and it is obvious the artist didn't grok what it is that makes a Cyber a Cyber.

Looking forward to seeing more rational examples of folded Stainless Steel models that are based more upon the Cybertruck's design parameters.

 

[AndrewZ]

Waymo and Cruise are not allowed to operate at 85mph or 70mph. Cruise max speed is 35mph and Waymo I believe is 65mph. Also both are not allowed on hwy. Your bar is still set higher than those two companies.

Sounds like your issue is just bad map data of a certain area and also you should maybe try to let the car do its thing before correcting it(in a safe manner) before judging it. I have a concrete divider that looks like the car will hit it everyday but it merges just fine.

I‘m surprised Waymo would allow up to 65mph.

There’s an interesting dynamic here where urban driving is more complex but likely actually lower risk than highway because the speeds are so much higher as are the stakes if something goes wrong, and reaction times need to be shorter at those highway speeds. I’d expect that Tesla would follow a pattern similar to the robotaxis out there already: they would accept liability on urban roads before that risk will be accepted on highways.

I think the only thing stopping Tesla from attempting Waymo or Cruise-like functionality today is unwillingness to take ownership of the driving task and liability for what happens when the system is operating. These other companies do it today even though their vehicles make mistakes, no reason it couldn’t be attempted by Tesla.


But FSD is nowhere near good enough for Tesla to accept the liability, the question is how much better does it need to be? 10x safer than humans? 100x? 1000x? Considering the size of Tesla’s fleet if a switch were to be flipped that would turn current FSD Beta vehicles into robotaxis, the liability would be massive and the risk mitigation needs to be equally massive.

 

[Electroman]

The Tesla folks keep talking about licensing FSD during the earnings calls. That's a signal on its own. Further, many partner contracts get made for double-digit improvement in a primary feature's functionality for a single company. I'll put a guess out there that FSD already would give triple digit improvement in safety from their "competitors" such as Cruise and Waymo.

I can see how this will all play out. For many years no one will touch Tesla's FSD with a long pole. The pride of ones own development will keep the legacy makers from approaching Tesla. And then one day Ford will announce that they have licensed Tesla's FSD and it will be available on all cars manufactured two years later. And then GM will join after two weeks. And then VW, Stellantis, Honda, Nissan will all join. Toyota will be bankrupt by then.

Tesla's SP will go to the moon.

 

[Christine69420]

Browsing around X today I came over this nugget in a post from Tesla Thomas. Ten or so years ago - the S85 RWD era - he worked in sales and had an interview with Jerome Guillen:

In my second interview with Jerome, after he had drilled me on how many more cars, we could sell, after a hypothetical introduction of AWD, (which I wouldn’t answer because I simply didn’t know the numbers in my market at the time) he said this: We will spend the next 10 years scaling, and then it will be time to turn the screws". The price cuts that Wall Street is panicking about have been in the planning for OVER A DECADE. This is when Tesla takes market share. Of course, Elon says, we need more than Tesla to make EVs, but also Tesla want to sell as many cars as possible. This is when we make the it hurt.

Full tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692182349784522825

 

[hobbes]

Tesla to resume Giga Shanghai Phase 1 battery plant to support Project Highland: report

With Project Highland just around the corner, Tesla seems to be preparing itself for an explosion of orders for the revamped Model 3.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone see Vinfast ($VFS) stock today? up over 100% for no reason.

Apropos of nothing in particular, how'd Gamestop ($GME*) do today?

*rhymes with "meme". /S

Cheers to the steady hands!

 

[ggies07]

Browsing around X today I came over this nugget in a post from Tesla Thomas. Ten or so years ago - the S85 RWD era - he worked in sales and had an interview with Jerome Guillen:

In my second interview with Jerome, after he had drilled me on how many more cars, we could sell, after a hypothetical introduction of AWD, (which I wouldn’t answer because I simply didn’t know the numbers in my market at the time) he said this: We will spend the next 10 years scaling, and then it will be time to turn the screws". The price cuts that Wall Street is panicking about have been in the planning for OVER A DECADE. This is when Tesla takes market share. Of course, Elon says, we need more than Tesla to make EVs, but also Tesla want to sell as many cars as possible. This is when we make the it hurt.

Full tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692182349784522825

yes, yes, yes, yesssssssssssssssssss.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Browsing around X today I came over this nugget in a post from Tesla Thomas. Ten or so years ago - the S85 RWD era - he worked in sales and had an interview with Jerome Guillen:

In my second interview with Jerome, after he had drilled me on how many more cars, we could sell, after a hypothetical introduction of AWD, (which I wouldn’t answer because I simply didn’t know the numbers in my market at the time) he said this: We will spend the next 10 years scaling, and then it will be time to turn the screws". The price cuts that Wall Street is panicking about have been in the planning for OVER A DECADE. This is when Tesla takes market share. Of course, Elon says, we need more than Tesla to make EVs, but also Tesla want to sell as many cars as possible. This is when we make the it hurt.

Full tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692182349784522825

Reading this gives me even more conviction in Tesla. Who let alone plans and then executes almost to the day on what exactly they are going to do. Brilliant!