Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

The Cybertruck AI is learning how to play Frisbee!

hey now.

 

[lafrisbee]

<---- happy to see all the smiling faces that were able to hang on with diamond hands

 

[navguy12]

How Tesla could send the stock to 300 today: Tweet a photo of the cybertruck

…of one of its wheel cover’s flying off and almost hitting another vehicle.

/s

 

[bkp_duke]

2 quotes from the article
Reading the article, the agenda seems, Tesla's are way better road tripping for one, otherwise, no agenda eye sea

(me 15 months, 28,000 miles) (~45,000km)

----------------snip-------------------
Riding along with Granholm, I came away with a major takeaway: EVs that aren't Teslas have a road trip problem, and the White House knows it's urgent to solve this issue.

------------snip--------------​

Tesla chargers are significantly better than the competition, and most of the electric vehicles in the U.S. are Teslas.

Tesla is opening up its exclusive network to more vehicles, which could transform the charging experience as soon as next year, but not all automakers have embraced Tesla's technology. And although Tesla dominates the EV market, the Biden administration wants every automaker to go electric quickly and every driver to have access to fast, reliable charging.
----------------snip-------------------

The article actually showed how bad the charging infrastructure in the US is, ___except___ Tesla's from my jaundiced eye reading it and how the rest better shape up or go BK

My beef, if not clear, was the title. 99% of people won't read past the title and will therefore lump Teslas in with all other EVs. This should have been in the title, otherwise it is deceptive.

 

[SO16]

2 quotes from the article
Reading the article, the agenda seems, Tesla's are way better road tripping for one, otherwise, no agenda eye sea

(me 15 months, 28,000 miles) (~45,000km)

----------------snip-------------------
Riding along with Granholm, I came away with a major takeaway: EVs that aren't Teslas have a road trip problem, and the White House knows it's urgent to solve this issue.

------------snip--------------​

Tesla chargers are significantly better than the competition, and most of the electric vehicles in the U.S. are Teslas.

Tesla is opening up its exclusive network to more vehicles, which could transform the charging experience as soon as next year, but not all automakers have embraced Tesla's technology. And although Tesla dominates the EV market, the Biden administration wants every automaker to go electric quickly and every driver to have access to fast, reliable charging.
----------------snip-------------------

The article actually showed how bad the charging infrastructure in the US is, ___except___ Tesla's from my jaundiced eye reading it and how the rest better shape up or go BK

The article was good.

The headline was not.

 

[dhrivnak]

Yup, this is like an electric Volkswagen XL1, the car that VW should have build 10 years ago (their loss, soon their demise):

Volkswagen 1-litre car - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Doug DeMuro knows about the XL1:

Cheers!

I REALLY tried to buy one but no-one I could find anywhere at Volkswagen would sell me one.

 

[Thekiwi]

After trading hours notes from a 'Go Electric Event' held on the weekend (3rd year running)

A local group I belong to hosted a 'Go Electric' event this weekend. While EVs were a focus we also had select manufacturers representing e-bikes, roof-top solar with backup power, battery construction tools and garden tools, heat pumps (HVAC), and induction cooktops. The idea is to get hydrocarbons out of your personal life with better alternatives available in each category.

We had 28EVs (the usual subjects with some duplicates).

Takeaways:
- Ignorance remains high. We are still at the early stages.
- However, the attendees have moved somewhat from early tech adopters and tree huggers to $ savers (with a hint of green cred).
- Tesla's reputation is tremendous. Elon's reputation is terrible (amongst this crowd anyway) with 4 people telling me that a Tesla was off their EV list due to him. Not starting a debate here just reporting the the endless hits are having a real affect.
- For the first time ever 2 people told me directly that they would only get Tesla because 'they have been doing EVs the longest'. Loved that. Puts paid to the '100 years of manufacturing cars' legacy auto argument that was going to bury Tesla.
- With most of the other EVs in front of me and interacting with most of them yesterday the Teslas are just so much further ahead on tech (and, subjectively, design).

Visited my parents city last weekend - definitely see the shift with people that are almost in climate denier camp that are talking about going to EVs & Solar+home battery solely due to money saved. Enough real world examples in their lives now that they see how much money it can save, after seeing friends or friends of friends do it.

 

[Usain]

Honestly after listening to James Douma's FSD V12 explanation and the narrative Isaacson wrote in the book about V12 end to end, a lack of accuracy is a understatement. Maybe he wanted it to frame it as a surprise or something but it definitely made it sound like some rouge team decided to try end to end while Musk was skeptical, but was then convinced by the team.

vs

James Douma's explanation of the transition from V10->V12 tells an entirely different story. Karpathy wanted to do end to end since the beginning, but the signal is too weak using the training software they had at the time. So they developed in multiple steps, adding bits and pieces of NN to every version from 10->11 trying to boost the signal so eventually they can do end to end. So V12 is not only an additional attachment to but also came from the backs of V10 and V11. It was not some rouge team who wanted to try a different method that is not on the same path as FSD trajectory.

I lead a team of software developers. Being skeptical is part of the job. Any time the team wants to take a leap like that, I ask a lot of questions until I am convinced of the technical merits. Usually, I go with what the team wants to do, but even if the plan sounds good, it's not always the best time to implement it.

Everyone has known that end-to-end was always the end goal. But I'm sure Elon had a lot of questions before giving his approval to devote resources to trying end-to-end at that time. Maybe Isaacson misinterpreted the scene. Or maybe he got it right. Or maybe he was adding some extra drama. I'll reserve judgement until I can read the whole narrative in context.

I'm sue there will be plenty of nits to pick at from those of us who follow Tesla closely. Should make for some interesting posts.

 

[Usain]

The article was good.

The headline was not.

As Tesla articles go, 1 for 2 ain't bad.

 

[Tim S]

His downside case of $10 is now $150 after stock splits.

In todays note he has a downside case of $120.

So technically he's more bearish on Tesla now than he was back in 2019.

You have that math backwards. His $10 downside target in 2019 is 66 cents today ($10 ÷ 15).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Honestly after listening to James Douma's FSD V12 explanation and the narrative Isaacson wrote in the book about V12 end to end, a lack of accuracy is a understatement. Maybe he wanted it to frame it as a surprise or something but it definitely made it sound like some rouge team decided to try end to end while Musk was skeptical, but was then convinced by the team.

vs

James Douma's explanation of the transition from V10->V12 tells an entirely different story. Karpathy wanted to do end to end since the beginning, but the signal is too weak using the training software they had at the time. So they developed in multiple steps, adding bits and pieces of NN to every version from 10->11 trying to boost the signal so eventually they can do end to end. So V12 is not only an additional attachment to but also came from the backs of V10 and V11. It was not some rouge team who wanted to try a different method that is not on the same path as FSD trajectory.

Not questioning Douma, but how does Douma know that? Was he part of the team, knows a lot of people there, or?

 

[Todd Burch]

Not questioning Douma, but how does Douma know that? Was he part of the team, knows a lot of people there, or?

Karpathy gave a lecture about this a few years ago--about how Software 2.0 would "eat away" at Software 1.0--about how neural networks would slowly eat away at traditional code until there was almost none left. Sorry, don't have it handy right now but I'm sure it can be found with a quick Youtube search.

Karpathy and others knew that you can't take the Comma.ai approach, where you go straight to end-to-end. You need to develop some more modular neural networks first to help you validate and select quality data, and mine the fleet. Otherwise, the amount of data you need and the time and manpower you need to groom it is overwhelming.

 

[ggies07]

Karpathy gave a lecture about this a few years ago--about how Software 2.0 would "eat away" at Software 1.0--about how neural networks would slowly eat away at traditional code until there was almost none left. Sorry, don't have it handy right now but I'm sure it can be found

Karpathy and others knew that you can't take the Comma.ai approach, where you go straight to end-to-end. You need to develop some more modular neural networks first to help you validate and select quality data, and mine the fleet. Otherwise, the amount of data you need and the time and manpower you need to groom it is overwhelming.

Got it:

 

[MartinAustin]

Whoops! Still a few bugs to work out, CyberTruck...

Tesla Cybertruck wheel cover flies off in traffic as production looms

Tesla’s Cybertruck is just about ready to enter production, but a test vehicle was caught on video causing a potentially...

electrek.co

From the clear video taken near San Francisco, on a Tesla dashcam no less.

View attachment 973019

Maybe the Cybertruck had a BZ4X wrap on it?

 

[wipster]

You should be able to find a transcript from NPR and share exactly what you found objectionable. I've already listened to Lex's two hour interview and some other shorter ones. I haven't heard anything like you describe.

I do plan to read the book. From what I gather, Isaacson had two years of unfettered access to Elon. There is bound to be some good information in there from Isaacson's reporting. I don't expect perfect accuracy, but I'm sure it will be good enough to learn a few things.

I'll hold my critique until I read the book in it's entirety. Regardless of what the Issacson's personal feelings are, the sign of a good author is to not add them to the writings in the book, concentrating on the subject.

I hope Walter Issacson is successful in being a good author in this important biography. I'm anxious to read how and why Elon's political views have changed in recent years (if they have at all). I vehemently disagree with many of the things he has said and done recently, but in the other hand, I wholeheartedly agree with his right to say them.

If any of you have read and/or watched Outlander, there is some similarity between Jamie's views and statements at the start of the revolutionary war, some good comparisons with Elon can be made.

 

[dhanson865]

TSLA has to get over 313.80 in the next few days or this 1Y chart goes green the bad way (by scrolling until the prior high disappears off the left edge).

 

[alhounos]

Good ol' Gordon Johnson was really singin' for his dinner today!

 

[bkp_duke]

Good ol' Gordon Johnson was really singin' for his dinner today!

IT's RICH hearing GJ call anything "fluff".

 

[SPadival]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701304268316094685

View attachment 972969
Compares to:
View attachment 972967

Probably the shortest amount of time that Elon spent reviewing any design. That's the reason this concept pic is in the book.. was probably discarded in seconds lol. But hey.. YouTubers gotta YouTube (not cool the Rob Maurer deleted my comment pointing this out)!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1309657470973825025

 

[winfield100]

My beef, if not clear, was the title. 99% of people won't read past the title and will therefore lump Teslas in with all other EVs. This should have been in the title, otherwise it is deceptive.

Moderately OT

If you read the article, at the bottom was a comment box to NPR that they (hopefully) read.

I inundated them with facts, figures, data, comments about a better title for _next_ article,
you know, PV arrays making 100's of megawatt hours (well 87mwh so far on mine free sunshine),
10's of 1,000's of miles driven on fusion powered sunshine.
author drives a Bolt, suggested they redo the road trip with Tesla's & compare trouble vs no trouble,
mentioned EVADC EV club recreation of John Broder Feb 2013 DC to NYC "failed" trip by 8 Tesla's with 0 problems, etc etc

give her ideas and feed her real data to write _next_ article.

bias her in our direction. her job is writing articles. make it easy for her. give her real data.