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Geez. With all this positive news going on and we only get a measly 10% bump today? 🤷‍♂️

Why does being a HODLorian always have to be sooooo disappointing? 🥺

I'm gonna find a more impressive company and put all my TSLA investment there, pronto! 🤥

/S

Edit: Granted, if we make it to $275.835, it will have gone up to 11, but we'd need a model of Stonehenge to make that happen, wouldn't we?
 
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On the Morgan Stanley upgrade to overweight:

So I guess Morgan Stanley has bought all the TSLA stock they want by now?

I read the first four pages of their bullish report. Kinda of a speculative reason for an overweight, but plausible. Tesla could arguably be turning into an NVidia/Amazon (AWS) kind of company depending on where Dojo goes (that was their thesis).

I certainly think the Dojo architecture is world class and then some. I don't think anyone has something that is that communication intensive, and it is fast dense/high bandwidth communications that makes a difference for AI supercomputers. I really think people are overlooking just how world class Dojo really is. Tesla has actually been soft peddling it (for once). I suspect it is because Elon doesn't believe in it strongly. I have noticed that Elon and I are on opposite sides of many AI/FSD technology issues for the past ten years really. But I have to give him kudos for greenlighting the project!

At any rate, it's just one of many examples why I am still bullish on Tesla. They have a LOT of world class technologies under their roof which will make a difference in due time.
 
If anyone believes welded steel (traditional build) is stronger than a casting, just send them this video, courtesy of Sandy Munro.

Oh, where to begin . . . if you have space to increase section, low-density materials generally make for better structures than high-density materials, particularly if specific strength is roughly equal -- which it generally is for common engineering metals. So magnesium>aluminum>titanium>steel -- if you can increase cross section. You see in this in bicycle frames, where ultra-high-strength steel for light-weighting was pursued until bicycle frame tubes became so thin that "crippling" failure modes (local buckling of the very thin material) became a big issue. Aluminum didn't work because it wasn't stiff enough, until Gary Klein realized you could just go with larger diameter tubing in aluminum to make up for the material lack of stiffness. You couldn't do this with steel because it was already at its limit in that ratio of wall thickness to tube diameter -- if you kept weight constant with larger diameter tubing with even thinner wall thicknesses, crippling and denting issues got in your way.

As to denting, the type we've all experienced on car doors and fenders from door dings, such denting is sensitive to sheet thickness. A 3mm aluminum door panel weighs the same as a 1mm thick steel panel, but it is, in general, much less likely to get dented -- even if the steel is stronger. In the real world, a car company wants a weight saving from aluminum, so the panel isn't 3mm thick, it's perhaps 1.6mm thick, and you don't get superior dent resistance -- but it's much lighter than steel.

The gigacast structures on the Model Y are about cost and manufacturability improvements, not about weight savings, though there may be some, especially when you consider the body sealer that doesn't have to be used. They replace tens of stamped steel components that are spot-welded together with a single near-net-shape part, giving much more precision and simpler assembly. The material properties of high-pressure-die-cast aluminum basically sucks, but Tesla has tailored an alloy that has decent elongation and better strength than some other HPDI alloys. And, again, aluminum just in and of itself is about a 1/3 the weight of steel. Minimum wall thicknesses in the gigacast parts are set by casting limitations -- I would be surprised if any part of a gigacast MY part is less than 3mm thick, much thicker than the prior steel components. And section modulus improvements are made with all the reinforcing ribs you see on the part. So you end up with a part that's perhaps even heavier than the original steel structure, made with a much less strong material, but equal or better in strength and stiffness as a part because of the design freedom of having a 3d part with ribs and increased section where needed instead of a 2d stamped construction. As for cost of repair, in either case if you damage the body structure much beyond the sacrificial, designed-to-crush end beams, a car is likely to be totaled. Oh, a very skilled auto body repair technician might be able to repair a more damaged sheet steel structure theoretically, but in practice, it's not economic.

So Sandy hitting stuff with a sledgehammer isn't particularly interesting. The thicker, ribbed aluminum structure of the gigacasting resists denting more than the thinner steel, but that says almost nothing about the load cases the parts actually are required to carry in normal use or in a crash. It's a circus trick.
 
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On the Morgan Stanley upgrade to overweight:

So I guess Morgan Stanley has bought all the TSLA stock they want by now?

I read the first four pages of their bullish report. Kinda of a speculative reason for an overweight, but plausible. Tesla could arguably be turning into an NVidia/Amazon (AWS) kind of company depending on where Dojo goes (that was their thesis).

I certainly think the Dojo architecture is world class and then some. I don't think anyone has something that is that communication intensive, and it is fast dense/high bandwidth communications that makes a difference for AI supercomputers. I really think people are overlooking just how world class Dojo really is. Tesla has actually been soft peddling it (for once). I suspect it is because Elon doesn't believe in it strongly. I have noticed that Elon and I are on opposite sides of many AI/FSD technology issues for the past ten years really. But I have to give him kudos for greenlighting the project!

At any rate, it's just one of many examples why I am still bullish on Tesla. They have a LOT of world class technologies under their roof which will make a difference in due time.
No bro, Tesla has over 250 years of AI experience once you add up the team they put together....
I guess using these metrics Nvidia was working on AI since hunting and gathering with over 200,000 years worth of experience

 
I disagree (and I do have a degree in Chemistry). Basically, his last point is the most valid - we don't build ICE engines from sheet metal. They are big CAST blocks (usually aluminum). When done right, cast Aluminum can have rigid properties that surpass steel.
I was not debating cast alu vs steel, rather I questioned his method of hammering stuff and drawing conclusions. See last sentence below.
Oh, where to begin . . . if you have space to increase section, low-density materials generally make for better structures than high-density materials, particularly if specific strength is roughly equal -- which it generally is for common engineering metals. So magnesium>aluminum>titanium>steel -- if you can increase cross section. You see in this in bicycle frames, where ultra-high-strength steel for light-weighting was pursued until bicycle frame tubes became so thin that "crippling" failure modes (local buckling of the very thin material) became a big issue. Aluminum didn't work because it wasn't stiff enough, until Gary Klein realized you could just go with larger diameter tubing in aluminum to make up for the material lack of stiffness. You couldn't do this with steel because it was already at its limit in that ratio of wall thickness to tube diameter -- if you kept weight constant with larger diameter tubing with even thinner wall thicknesses, crippling and denting issues got in your way.

As to denting, the type we've all experienced on car doors and fenders from door dings, such denting is sensitive to sheet thickness. A 3mm aluminum door panel weighs the same as a 1mm thick steel panel, but it is, in general, much less likely to get dented -- even if the steel is stronger. In the real world, a car company wants a weight saving from aluminum, so the panel isn't 3mm thick, it's perhaps 1.6mm thick, and you don't get superior dent resistance -- but it's much lighter than steel.

The gigacast structures on the Model Y are about cost and manufacturability improvements, not about weight savings, though there may be some, especially when you consider the body sealer that doesn't have to be used. They replace tens of spot-welded stamped steel components that are tack-welded together with a single near-net-shape part, giving much more precision and simpler assembly. The material properties of high-pressure-die-cast aluminum basically sucks, but Tesla has tailored an alloy that has decent elongation and better strength than some other HPDI alloys. And, again, aluminum just in and of itself is about a 1/3 the weight of steel. Minimum wall thicknesses in the gigacast parts are set by casting limitations -- I would be surprised if any part of a gigacast MY part is less than 3mm thick, much thicker than the prior steel components. And section modulus improvements are made with all the reinforcing ribs you see on the part. So you end up with a part that's perhaps even heavier than the original steel structure, made with a much less strong material, but equal or better in strength and stiffness as a part because of the design freedom of having a 3d part with ribs and increased section where needed instead of a 2d stamped construction. As for cost of repair, in either case if you damage the body structure much beyond the sacrificial, designed-to-crush end beams, a car is likely to be totaled. Oh, a very skilled auto body repair technician might be able to repair a more damaged sheet steel structure theoretically, but in practice, it's not economic.

So Sandy hitting stuff with a sledgehammer isn't particularly interesting. The thicker, ribbed aluminum structure of the gigacasting resists denting more than the thinner steel, but that says almost nothing about the load cases the parts actually are required to carry in normal use or in a crash. It's a circus trick.
 
Strange that as the Premarket TSLA price is in the 260’s max pain has dropped to 232.

Is this some sort of timing artifact? Or something else?
Options for this week started life as LEAPS before the last split. I have some with a strike price of $246.67. So there were very many traded (and still held) from back when TSLA was in the high one hundred range.
 
Are you really not aware (after following this Forum for years) that Open Interest is published once per trading day at 07:00 am ET and that it is ALWAYS based upon the previous sessions options trading? :/

I notice you posted your comment at 07:33 am ET so after the update for Friday's session...
I was not aware of this so thank you for the information.

A good investor is always learning.
 
I'd have to verify this with @mongo but I believe there is an IRA provision for fleet (or is it leased?) vehicles which provides an exemption. If so, a Tesla-owned Robotaxi fleet would qualify for the rebate, and thus could use China-sourced batteries. And at any rate, the econonics of the fleet are so good it scarcely matters... No cell-starving there. ;)
The commercial clean vehicle credit bypasses the critical mineral and component requirements.
Cell manufacturing credits still require local manufacturing.

That's not for Tesla (based on color scheme and also poster on X)

Franz is standing next to a four wheel mock up. Note the luggage inboard of the rear wheel(s).
 
My only objection is the rubber-band low-profile tires on a giant wheel. I know this isn't even a full concept car at this point...but why on earth should a light-weight, low-cost robotaxi need big wheels and low profile tires?

As far as I can tell, low profile tires on big wheels has 3 potential advantages: (1) cosmetic/marketing preference, (2) allows for bigger brakes in a heavier or higher-performance car, and (3) might allow better cornering in a high-performance car. None of those should apply to a robotaxi...but the low profile tires will still bring their standard downsides: more expensive wheels, more expensive tires, shorter tread life for the tires, and increased susceptibilty to damage of the tire and wheel when hitting potholes and other road hazards.

I know it's just a pre-concept...but Step 1 with a robotaxi should have been smaller wheels and meaty tires to reduce up-front and maintenance cost and improve durability.
 
Franz is standing next to a four wheel mock up. Note the luggage inboard of the rear wheel(s).

Yep. There has been some confusion by assorted folks taking a quick look at the pictures, but I think both have 4 wheels. I think the cardboard mock-up with Franz shows the back wheel inset a few inches compared to thh front wheel -- you can compare where each touches the ground. I think the more complete design image shows the same geometry, but adds fender skirts on the back to reduce drag. I believe the original 2-door Honda Insight had a similar geometry -- narrower track width and fender skirts at the rear.
 
My only objection is the rubber-band low-profile tires on a giant wheel. I know this isn't even a full concept car at this point...but why on earth should a light-weight, low-cost robotaxi need big wheels and low profile tires?

As far as I can tell, low profile tires on big wheels has 3 potential advantages: (1) cosmetic/marketing preference, (2) allows for bigger brakes in a heavier or higher-performance car, and (3) might allow better cornering in a high-performance car. None of those should apply to a robotaxi...but the low profile tires will still bring their standard downsides: more expensive wheels, more expensive tires, shorter tread life for the tires, and increased susceptibilty to damage of the tire and wheel when hitting potholes and other road hazards.

I know it's just a pre-concept...but Step 1 with a robotaxi should have been smaller wheels and meaty tires to reduce up-front and maintenance cost and improve durability.
Plot twist: By the time this comes to fruiton, Tesla will have developed/manfactured its own cost effective/maximum range tires, adding one more step into vertical intergration :)
 
Making money on new car sales is unusual and it's not at all unreasonable to think that Tesla may be headed to the place other carmakers inhabit as production volumes increase and vehicles need to be moved.

EVs are lower maintenance in their nature, so they will lack the high-margin revenue stream down the line from parts and maintenance.

Autonomy is what Elon thinks will be the replacement for (and improvement on) that service and maintenance revenue the legacy OEMs depend on to make their money after selling new cars at cost.


"and so on" surely must refer to what Elon cites as the most important factor here but that seems to be omitted from your detailed list: making a product that is so compelling that people are willing to pay a premium for it.


I don't think any of this should be controversial, I'm mostly regurgitating what Elon has said before in interviews etc.

I agree that the margins will likely decrease while EVs and therefore Teslas become less exclusive, more mass market. However, comparing them to ICEs one also has to take into account that at the same volume they will be cheaper to build and offer a better value (cheaper to operate, better performance), which should make up for the lost parts/maintenance revenue.
 
My only objection is the rubber-band low-profile tires on a giant wheel. I know this isn't even a full concept car at this point...but why on earth should a light-weight, low-cost robotaxi need big wheels and low profile tires?

(3) might allow better cornering in a high-performance car. None of those should apply to a robotaxi...but the low profile tires will still bring their standard downsides: more expensive wheels, more expensive tires, shorter tread life for the tires, and increased susceptibilty to damage of the tire and wheel when hitting potholes and other road hazards.

I know it's just a pre-concept...but Step 1 with a robotaxi should have been smaller wheels and meaty tires to reduce up-front and maintenance cost and improve durability.
On dry smooth pavement only. Most every other situation large aspect ratio tires work better.
 
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