Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

People keep saying this. It won’t happen like that because eventually in the not too distant future nobody will be buying diddly squat from the OEMs.

Yeah, sure. There will be some propping up for a time, but in the end if a business can’t sell product and make money then the green fountain will stop flowing. People with money and power like having money and power. You can’t get money and power from a failing business forever.

I figure a few OEMs are going to instantaneously implode and be gone overnight while the others shrink into niche companies or into oblivion.

I actually hope the UAW gets what it wants for its members; that’ll just speed up the story to the end. And no, I’m not even a little concerned about the UAW getting into Tesla. If it does; then the people working there are too dumb to be part of saving humanity.

Careful there, cat. The French don't like it.

 

[replicant]

If it does; then the people working there are too dumb to be part of saving humanity.

Who's then to save humanity?

 

[scaesare]

I understand what you are saying but my eyes is seeing something different. Its why the JB Hunts and Schneiders governed to 65mph. But the majority of trucks are not moving at 65mph or less, especially on the race track like I-35.

Its beyond impressive that the Tesla Semi got 700 miles range, FSD will probably improve upon it. I just want to see the Tesla Semi driven like the mad maxes drive their rigs (majority of trucks you see parked at Loves) and get a "real world" number.

(emphasis mine)

Minor clarification: Typically, the "range" of an EV is considered the distance it can travel on a single charge.

Those 700+ trips that @GhostSkater originally posted were all with charging stops:

 

[advocate8]

I guess that will be true for non-Teslas, but most charging stops in a Tesla are around 15 minutes--barely enough time for a pit stop and to get a drink. Eating at a restaurant or watching a movie takes much longer. I don't see it in the artist's renditions, but there had better be a lot of non-charging or L2 charging stalls to accommodate the restaurant and movie (or there will be a lot of idle fees).

The larger truck stop chains, with their showers and fast food and modest shopping are already on it, gearing up with big plans built around EV chargers. The stops they’re already good at servicing -- longer than a standard gas stop, much much shorter than a movie -- make a lot of sense for charging. They’re kind of the masters of giving at least a certain segment happy with what they want/need for a 10-15 minute stop, so their business model is easy to adapt for EV charging stops.
Maybe some company with better ideas about food will step up and do similar. Some of the larger gas stations in France, and most stations in Iceland could be good models in a way.

 

[Captkerosene]

I honestly think that Gary is mostly very reasonable.

Gary's model derives almost all of TSLA's valuation from the sale of cars. Elon thinks that almost all of TSLA's valuation comes from AI and robotics. One of them is wrong ... and not by a little bit. (Guess who I think is right.)

I think Gary wants to own TSLA for the AI and robotics but doesn't want to admit it. He has clients who would leave him (and conservative value buddies who would think he's crazy) if he says that he believes Elon's claims about Robotaxi and Bot. So, instead, he bakes enough value into the car business to justify owning the shares on that basis alone.

 

[AndrewZ]

(emphasis mine)

Minor clarification: Typically, the "range" of an EV is considered the distance it can travel on a single charge.

Those 700+ trips that @GhostSkater originally posted were all with charging stops:

View attachment 978117

Yeah aside from charging the trucks almost don't stop moving for 24hrs on these high-mileage days, they're clearing using a team of at least two people.

There are other dynamics to consider here as well, like the high-mileage days requiring a start at full charge and that means high-mileage days don't happen consecutively. So you can get 700 or even 1000 miles in a single 24 hour period, but it will be bookended by lower mileage days to charge the truck to full prior to the big mileage day and then drain it down to empty to squeeze in those miles meaning the next 24 hour period begins with a long charge.

 

[lafrisbee]

Tesla tops the most shorted list of large cap stocks.

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1701566929054372187?s=20

The ants see this as secondary evidence that the stock is the darling of those that manipulate a stock to make billions. The sentiment about the STOCK is weighted towards both ends. Thus creating "bipolar" stock price swings.

 

[JupiterMan]

Gary's model derives almost all of TSLA's valuation from the sale of cars. Elon thinks that almost all of TSLA's valuation comes from AI and robotics. One of them is wrong ... and not by a little bit. (Guess who I think is right.)

My understanding of this is that Elon thinks most of TSLA's future valuation will come from AI and robotics.

so both could be right.

 

[lafrisbee]

The larger truck stop chains, with their showers and fast food and modest shopping are already on it, gearing up with big plans built around EV chargers. The stops they’re already good at servicing -- longer than a standard gas stop, much much shorter than a movie -- make a lot of sense for charging. They’re kind of the masters of giving at least a certain segment happy with what they want/need for a 10-15 minute stop, so their business model is easy to adapt for EV charging stops.
Maybe some company with better ideas about food will step up and do similar. Some of the larger gas stations in France, and most stations in Iceland could be good models in a way.

Just say it!
The new Logo: Buc e-e- s

 

[growler23]

Just say it!
The new Logo: Buc e-e- s

Indeed. For those who haven't been there, this matches the Bucees' chain business model very well.
Go in, wander in wonder at all the amazing beaver-themed crap you might buy for 10-15 minutes. Bathroom break, buy a snack/drink, go out to your Tesla, and drive away fully charged.
Disclaimer: I plan to charge at Bucees later today as I cross Texas. May or may not buy some Beaver Nuggets.

 

[hitchhiker]

The Bucees east of Houston was my favorite charging stop crossing the country.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm surprised by the significant drop in inventory. I thought most Tesla's were ordered from the factory vs out of inventory. FSD tranfer isn't that significant of a catalyst. There's an announced refresh coming. Interest rates are sky high. What gives?

They cut inventory prices. It made for a relatively good buying opportunity for people and may have pulled forward some sales.

 

[Krugerrand]

Careful there, cat. The French don't like it.

C’est la vie!

 

[Krugerrand]

Who's then to save humanity?

We won’t care; we’ll all be dead.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I guess that will be true for non-Teslas, but most charging stops in a Tesla are around 15 minutes--barely enough time for a pit stop and to get a drink. Eating at a restaurant or watching a movie takes much longer. I don't see it in the artist's renditions, but there had better be a lot of non-charging or L2 charging stalls to accommodate the restaurant and movie (or there will be a lot of idle fees).

Maybe we just don't see the 10 acres of charging space off to the left? I think the main parking area would be for TMC members mostly.

I mean, we've had front row seating pretty much the whole time. And it's gonna play out just like we imagined it!

As they say... "Hold on to your white papers!"

 

[GhostSkater]

(emphasis mine)

Minor clarification: Typically, the "range" of an EV is considered the distance it can travel on a single charge.

Those 700+ trips that @GhostSkater originally posted were all with charging stops:

View attachment 978117

At the start I had a plan to gather all the data from all trucks all days and see what nice charts we could come up with, compare all charge curves, distance per % SoC and so on, but couldn't get a way to get the raw data, and way too much work to get all by hand

Let's hope now that the event is over they will do something like that

 

[CHGolferJim]

Gary's model derives almost all of TSLA's valuation from the sale of cars. Elon thinks that almost all of TSLA's valuation comes from AI and robotics. One of them is wrong ... and not by a little bit. (Guess who I think is right.)

I think Gary wants to own TSLA for the AI and robotics but doesn't want to admit it. He has clients who would leave him (and conservative value buddies who would think he's crazy) if he says that he believes Elon's claims about Robotaxi and Bot. So, instead, he bakes enough value into the car business to justify owning the shares on that basis alone.

…..and keep in mind his P&L estimates are based on a very conservative forecast of 10 million cars sold in 2030.

 

[jerry33]

The larger truck stop chains, with their showers and fast food and modest shopping are already on it, gearing up with big plans built around EV chargers. The stops they’re already good at servicing -- longer than a standard gas stop, much much shorter than a movie -- make a lot of sense for charging. They’re kind of the masters of giving at least a certain segment happy with what they want/need for a 10-15 minute stop, so their business model is easy to adapt for EV charging stops.
Maybe some company with better ideas about food will step up and do similar. Some of the larger gas stations in France, and most stations in Iceland could be good models in a way.

Yes, I've thought that would be a great idea for a long time. L2+movie theater with food seems as if it's a no-brainer. My issue is with the artist's rendition. I don't see anywhere that cars can be parked except at a Supercharger stall.

 

[scaesare]

At the start I had a plan to gather all the data from all trucks all days and see what nice charts we could come up with, compare all charge curves, distance per % SoC and so on, but couldn't get a way to get the raw data, and way too much work to get all by hand

Let's hope now that the event is over they will do something like that

Of the few that I did rough calcs on based on mouse-pointer-hovering (to get the SoC values) most looked to be within spitting distance of the 500 mile range, and most seemed to have some >55MPH segments in the trip... so I think the range rating is reasonably legit in real world scenarios...

 

[Tim S]

They cut inventory prices. It made for a relatively good buying opportunity for people and may have pulled forward some sales.

My inventory Model 3 had a $2400 "price adjustment". That plus FSD transfer plus $7500 tax credit plus keeping stalks pulled my sale forward, instead of waiting for the Highland refresh.