Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

Gotcha!
Yeah 'serviced runs of over 500 miles' would be less ambiguous than "gotten runs over 500 miles". Though in both cases the use of 500 miles adds some level of ambiguity since that is the semi's range estimate.

They don't say over 750 because the run wasn't 770, it was 520 (over 500). The semi can do both legs in a day, but that's two runs, not a single 1,000 run.

But the focus wasn't on the arbitrary length of a run, it's on what they have learned about the Semi, the actual article title is: "Pepsi Reveals Everything About The Tesla Semi Trucks"

So, referring to any arbitrary distance (be it 520, 757 or 1,000) when you can stop and charge can be misleading when you are talking about what the Semi can do. That's like saying "my ICE has gotten over 800 miles" because that's my distance I travel on vacation... but that tells you nothing about the capabilities of my ICE if I stopped for gas 3 times. (Well, except my tires were in decent shape )

So, again, my post was to clarify for those reading so they were not left with the wrong impression of the Semi's range... wasn't delving in to Pepsico's routes...

In any case, point made. Let's move on.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1709946301084057769

https://twitter.com/x/status/1709947330844356611

https://twitter.com/x/status/1709946466016592256

Not sure if this happened earlier , but seeing it for 1st time

 

[Cosmacelf]

Hope this is the end of the x/twitter surge and Elon will now focus attention back on our golden goose

I actually kinda wish he doesn't, and steps down as CEO of Tesla. I've been thinking this for a long time now actually.

His Solarcity acquisition was a giant strategic mistake. There is no other way to look at it as a bailout of a company he was chair of. It didn't do too much damage to Tesla, but there was nothing positive it brought.

And after he bought Solarcity, he gutted its offerings and pivoted to a solar roof, which is still very, very problematic and may never actually work from a business point of view.

He pushed for the Cybertruck - that appears to be a strategic win, but the jury is still out. It isn't clear whether Tesla would have done just as well with a traditional truck - it probably would have been shipping by now, for example.

Elon was almost successful in nixing the $25K car. He wanted it robotaxi only, no steering wheel, etc. It took his mgmt team quite a while to convince him otherwise. That was a needless delay.

He has been consistently wrong, for like 7 years, on Autopilot/FSD advancement. Has he been starving the FSD team of resources because he thinks success is just around the corner ... for seven years? 200 core developers is kinda small for such an important effort.

It will be very interesting to see where Teslabot lands. Its success is 100% dependent on advanced AI, specifically how to teach it to do novel tasks. So, dependent on something that Elon has been wrong about for seven years. THIS time, he's got it figured out, right? THIS time their AI team will have the goods to make it a success ... soon? Right?

In the end, Tesla is now being run by very good people, a stellar culture has been imbued, Elon's contributions could actually be hurting on balance.

 

[mongo]

His Solarcity acquisition was a giant strategic mistake. There is no other way to look at it as a bailout of a company he was chair of. It didn't do too much damage to Tesla, but there was nothing positive it brought.

A positive: staff from Solar City helped save the Model 3 ramp.

 

[nativewolf]

He’s referring to the semi hauling cybertrucks.
It looks like a day cab diesel semi tractor. Those typically weigh 10k to 15k pounds

Nah, they'll weigh closer to 20k and it is part of my business to know. Tell me what make the day cab was and I'll tell you pretty much exactly. A really nice day cab will be over 20k. There is some ridiculous post on the internet talking about 10k for a day cab and that's just ..well I have never seen one.

 

[nativewolf]

I actually kinda wish he doesn't, and steps down as CEO of Tesla. I've been thinking this for a long time now actually.

His Solarcity acquisition was a giant strategic mistake. There is no other way to look at it as a bailout of a company he was chair of. It didn't do too much damage to Tesla, but there was nothing positive it brought.

And after he bought Solarcity, he gutted its offerings and pivoted to a solar roof, which is still very, very problematic and may never actually work from a business point of view.

He pushed for the Cybertruck - that appears to be a strategic win, but the jury is still out. It isn't clear whether Tesla would have done just as well with a traditional truck - it probably would have been shipping by now, for example.

Elon was almost successful in nixing the $25K car. He wanted it robotaxi only, no steering wheel, etc. It took his mgmt team quite a while to convince him otherwise. That was a needless delay.

He has been consistently wrong, for like 7 years, on Autopilot/FSD advancement. Has he been starving the FSD team of resources because he thinks success is just around the corner ... for seven years? 200 core developers is kinda small for such an important effort.

It will be very interesting to see where Teslabot lands. Its success is 100% dependent on advanced AI, specifically how to teach it to do novel tasks. So, dependent on something that Elon has been wrong about for seven years. THIS time, he's got it figured out, right? THIS time their AI team will have the goods to make it a success ... soon? Right?

In the end, Tesla is now being run by very good people, a stellar culture has been imbued, Elon's contributions could actually be hurting on balance.

You have laid out some important points that others have ignored or glossed over for years. I would say he was also far off on the 4680 and the entire battery capacity/needs. They have been agile enough to backfill with less than stellar alternative solutions but they have resulted in compromises such as certain tesla models being slower than a chevy bolt (not that I care about speed but it is not something to brag about).

Re the bot it is going to require a lot more than AI, but that is a point for another day.

The battery launch failures have significantly delayed the CT and Semi, the semi was a glorious solution that would dramatically alter the field of heavy trucking. Years late now.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Curve ball... how did 500 mi range become the spec in the first place? Nice and round, it rolls off the tongue? Or was this based on research... like what they're doing right now with Pepsi? Real world is always different.

Perhaps 465 miles is more efficient for future charging infrastructure by not having to carry as many batteries (which are in short supply). It takes a lot of power to move those extra batteries around. So if I were Tesla, I'd be trying to find the sweet spot based on geographic layouts and real testing. It would still need to pull full loads up mountains, but that's another equation that could possibly be adjusted with one less gear tooth etc. These are Plaid motors in the Semi, right? Super high RPM.

So ya, out of thin blue air, what if pack size and specs are changing, would we know? Obviously it wouldn't sound good if it didn't do 500 mi. But the price could drop to make it a newer product line, and get the chemistry fine tuned to maybe squeeze it back up later on. Could also be why they aren't being clear on range. The number 500 is maybe just a double dare, no different than the speed of sound challenge. I'll let the distribution gurus figure out if what I'm implying even makes sense.

(Edit: Or different batteries coming soon for Semi... just speculating).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Curve ball... how did 500 mi range become the spec in the first place? Nice and round, it rolls off the tongue? Or was this based on research... like what they're doing right now with Pepsi? Real world is always different.

Perhaps 465 miles is more efficient for future charging infrastructure by not having to carry as many batteries (which are in short supply). It takes a lot of power to move those extra batteries around. So if I were Tesla, I'd be trying to find the sweet spot based on geographic layouts and real testing. It would still need to pull full loads up mountains, but that's another equation that could possibly be adjusted with one less gear tooth etc. These are Plaid motors in the Semi, right? Super high RPM.

So ya, out of thin blue air, what if pack size and specs are changing, would we know? Obviously it wouldn't sound good if it didn't do 500 mi. But the price could drop to make it a newer product line, and get the chemistry fine tuned to maybe squeeze it back up later on. Could also be why they aren't being clear on range. The number 500 is maybe just a double dare, no different than the speed of sound challenge. I'll let the distribution gurus figure out if what I'm implying even makes sense.

500 mi = WS "anal lysts" likey
465 mi = WS 'anal lysts" poo poo on

 

[SOULPEDL]

500 mi = WS "anal lysts" likey
465 mi = WS 'anal lysts" poo poo on

As I edited... maybe hide the range until it's to 500 using newer batteries or efficiency upgrades. Who knows.

 

[Krugerrand]

You have laid out some important points that others have ignored or glossed over for years. I would say he was also far off on the 4680 and the entire battery capacity/needs. They have been agile enough to backfill with less than stellar alternative solutions but they have resulted in compromises such as certain tesla models being slower than a chevy bolt (not that I care about speed but it is not something to brag about).

Re the bot it is going to require a lot more than AI, but that is a point for another day.

The battery launch failures have significantly delayed the CT and Semi, the semi was a glorious solution that would dramatically alter the field of heavy trucking. Years late now.

Yeah, lots of glossing over as if nobody else at Tesla ever made glaring mistakes, and that Elon hasn’t eaten their and taken the blame when he didn’t need to. And absolutely no need to credit him with the decisions that saved the company multiple times.

Such displays of ignorance and arrogance from the cheap seats. Unless you’re in the room, you have no clue and even then I’m not sure the truth wouldn’t get distorted.

And no, I’m not saying Elon hasn’t made mistakes. He has, he’s admitted them, he moved on. Maybe you and others could move on too and take the money he’s made you and go buy yourself an ice cream cone.

Elon’s biggest and only important mistake was thinking humanity deserved to be saved.

 

[raffiniert]

Elon’s biggest and only important mistake was thinking humanity deserved to be saved.

Wow, couldn't agree more with the rest of your post, but this left me speechless. Don't be so pessimistic, humanity has brought awesome things, art, music, love, kindness, cures for illnesses. We can and we will fix the rest.

People hatin' on Elon on some forum not understanding that the easiest way to not make mistakes is to not start making anything at all is at least fun.
I have pity for people like that

 

[Mengy]

I actually kinda wish he doesn't, and steps down as CEO of Tesla. I've been thinking this for a long time now actually.

His Solarcity acquisition was a giant strategic mistake. There is no other way to look at it as a bailout of a company he was chair of. It didn't do too much damage to Tesla, but there was nothing positive it brought.

And after he bought Solarcity, he gutted its offerings and pivoted to a solar roof, which is still very, very problematic and may never actually work from a business point of view.

He pushed for the Cybertruck - that appears to be a strategic win, but the jury is still out. It isn't clear whether Tesla would have done just as well with a traditional truck - it probably would have been shipping by now, for example.

Elon was almost successful in nixing the $25K car. He wanted it robotaxi only, no steering wheel, etc. It took his mgmt team quite a while to convince him otherwise. That was a needless delay.

He has been consistently wrong, for like 7 years, on Autopilot/FSD advancement. Has he been starving the FSD team of resources because he thinks success is just around the corner ... for seven years? 200 core developers is kinda small for such an important effort.

It will be very interesting to see where Teslabot lands. Its success is 100% dependent on advanced AI, specifically how to teach it to do novel tasks. So, dependent on something that Elon has been wrong about for seven years. THIS time, he's got it figured out, right? THIS time their AI team will have the goods to make it a success ... soon? Right?

In the end, Tesla is now being run by very good people, a stellar culture has been imbued, Elon's contributions could actually be hurting on balance.

This is a bit harsh and unfair, don't you think?

Solar City might not have been a good investment in hindsight but it DOES align perfectly with Tesla's mission. If Tesla had become a solar panel installing juggernaut then no one would be deriding Elon for buying Solar City.

And solar roof is a great product being held back by installation labor. That will likely be alleviated in time due to Optimus.

And you say he's been consistently wrong for 7 years on FSD advancement? That's not how I see it, FSD has progressed immensely over the past 7 years. He has been wrong about the timeframe for hitting Level 5 but Elon is an eternal optimist afterall, and FSD has proven to be a tougher nut to crack than expected. Still, progress is regularly made and to say he's been categorically "wrong" about FSD is incorrect, it's just taking longer than he expected it to.

I don't think Elon is perfect by any means and his timeline expectations are often unrealistic, but he has almost always been proven correct over a longer timeframe.

 

[Usain]

I actually kinda wish he doesn't, and steps down as CEO of Tesla. I've been thinking this for a long time now actually.

His Solarcity acquisition was a giant strategic mistake. There is no other way to look at it as a bailout of a company he was chair of. It didn't do too much damage to Tesla, but there was nothing positive it brought.

And after he bought Solarcity, he gutted its offerings and pivoted to a solar roof, which is still very, very problematic and may never actually work from a business point of view.

He pushed for the Cybertruck - that appears to be a strategic win, but the jury is still out. It isn't clear whether Tesla would have done just as well with a traditional truck - it probably would have been shipping by now, for example.

Elon was almost successful in nixing the $25K car. He wanted it robotaxi only, no steering wheel, etc. It took his mgmt team quite a while to convince him otherwise. That was a needless delay.

He has been consistently wrong, for like 7 years, on Autopilot/FSD advancement. Has he been starving the FSD team of resources because he thinks success is just around the corner ... for seven years? 200 core developers is kinda small for such an important effort.

It will be very interesting to see where Teslabot lands. Its success is 100% dependent on advanced AI, specifically how to teach it to do novel tasks. So, dependent on something that Elon has been wrong about for seven years. THIS time, he's got it figured out, right? THIS time their AI team will have the goods to make it a success ... soon? Right?

In the end, Tesla is now being run by very good people, a stellar culture has been imbued, Elon's contributions could actually be hurting on balance.

Elon has made some mistakes for sure. But all the things you mentioned as failures are just "things that are late". And yes, some "things" are later than they could have been because Elon was pushing boundries and he underestimated the rate of progress. He could have played it safe a little more. But technology predictions are always tricky. All tech CEOs get them wrong.

To say he starved the FSD team of resources sounds kind of nuts when you consider how much he's been pouring into Dojo and Nvidia clusters. I haven't heard that the FSD team wanted to hire more developers or labelers. It seems to me that Elon has given the FSD team everything they asked for and more.

The reason I keep adding to my Tesla position is precisely because of those "things that are late". Many of those "things" are going to be earth-shattering when they go from "late" to "here". And I'm expecting some big ones in 2024.

 

[SOULPEDL]

go buy yourself an ice cream cone.

OT.
From experience (I was 8 yrs old), make sure the cones have ice cream in them.
For example, this box does not contain Ice Cream. It is false advertising IMHO.

Spoiler: This is SO WRONG!!!

(Just tryin to lighten up the conversation at bit)

 

[WADan]

I actually kinda wish he doesn't, and steps down as CEO of Tesla. I've been thinking this for a long time now actually.

His Solarcity acquisition was a giant strategic mistake. There is no other way to look at it as a bailout of a company he was chair of. It didn't do too much damage to Tesla, but there was nothing positive it brought.

And after he bought Solarcity, he gutted its offerings and pivoted to a solar roof, which is still very, very problematic and may never actually work from a business point of view.

He pushed for the Cybertruck - that appears to be a strategic win, but the jury is still out. It isn't clear whether Tesla would have done just as well with a traditional truck - it probably would have been shipping by now, for example.

Elon was almost successful in nixing the $25K car. He wanted it robotaxi only, no steering wheel, etc. It took his mgmt team quite a while to convince him otherwise. That was a needless delay.

He has been consistently wrong, for like 7 years, on Autopilot/FSD advancement. Has he been starving the FSD team of resources because he thinks success is just around the corner ... for seven years? 200 core developers is kinda small for such an important effort.

It will be very interesting to see where Teslabot lands. Its success is 100% dependent on advanced AI, specifically how to teach it to do novel tasks. So, dependent on something that Elon has been wrong about for seven years. THIS time, he's got it figured out, right? THIS time their AI team will have the goods to make it a success ... soon? Right?

In the end, Tesla is now being run by very good people, a stellar culture has been imbued, Elon's contributions could actually be hurting on balance.

I think you may be underestimate the value of a driven leader with vision. The culture will be lost (not immediately), but overtime without the spiritual leader. It’s unclear what is going to happen at Amazon now that Bezos is busy with his new life (and new wife).

 

[Skryll]

This is a bit harsh and unfair, don't you think?

Solar City might not have been a good investment in hindsight but it DOES align perfectly with Tesla's mission. If Tesla had become a solar panel installing juggernaut then no one would be deriding Elon for buying Solar City.

And solar roof is a great product being held back by installation labor. That will likely be alleviated in time due to Optimus.

Another important aspect: To not let Evil win. Solar City was almost brought to its knees when it was overweight on expansion at the risk of being attackable by shorts, and they did. A solar city bankruptcy would have caused severe issues for solar adoption across the United States. Instead, Tesla bailed out solar city customer and business and gave a big long middle finger to the financial vultures, and, in effect, also the fossil fuel industry trying to prevent solar adoption.

Solar Roof would be super cool if it was possible to get it done at reasonable cost, hopefully a breakthrough eventually happens. Just like with battery cost.

We really lucked out in this battle that the Saudis bailed on Elon's funding secured and didn't get to own this amazing company for pennies on the dollar of what its potential really is. Instead we get to. Have some faith.

 

[GSP]

So the new cheap Model Y is available in the US for $36,490 after the tax credit. That translates to around £30,000. The cheapest Model Y in the UK is £44,990. So we are paying 50% more than you for the same car. Don't let me hear any of you Americans complain about anything, ever

Americans just love to complain.

I get complaints from my fellow Americans about my income tax bill being reduced by $7500. Somehow they think it is money given to me from their taxes, instead of a lower tax burden that is available to anyone who purchases new autos.

GSP

 

[uscbucsfan]

People just love to complain.

Fixed.

Everyone complains, regardless of where they are from. There are like 10 post here complaining about the S/X no longer making a RHD variant for the UK despite almost never selling there.

It's human nature. Living all over the world, I don't know that I've witnessed any culture that complains more or less than others. The complaints just vary based on the view/issues in the culture.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wow, couldn't agree more with the rest of your post, but this left me speechless. Don't be so pessimistic, humanity has brought awesome things, art, music, love, kindness, cures for illnesses. We can and we will fix the rest.

People hatin' on Elon on some forum not understanding that the easiest way to not make mistakes is to not start making anything at all is at least fun.
I have pity for people like that

Where have you been? That was me being optimistic. I’ll refrain from being pessimistic about your list because TSLA went green.

 

[unk45]

I actually kinda wish he doesn't, and steps down as CEO of Tesla. I've been thinking this for a long time now actually.

His Solarcity acquisition was a giant strategic mistake. There is no other way to look at it as a bailout of a company he was chair of. It didn't do too much damage to Tesla, but there was nothing positive it brought.

And after he bought Solarcity, he gutted its offerings and pivoted to a solar roof, which is still very, very problematic and may never actually work from a business point of view.

He pushed for the Cybertruck - that appears to be a strategic win, but the jury is still out. It isn't clear whether Tesla would have done just as well with a traditional truck - it probably would have been shipping by now, for example.

Elon was almost successful in nixing the $25K car. He wanted it robotaxi only, no steering wheel, etc. It took his mgmt team quite a while to convince him otherwise. That was a needless delay.

He has been consistently wrong, for like 7 years, on Autopilot/FSD advancement. Has he been starving the FSD team of resources because he thinks success is just around the corner ... for seven years? 200 core developers is kinda small for such an important effort.

It will be very interesting to see where Teslabot lands. Its success is 100% dependent on advanced AI, specifically how to teach it to do novel tasks. So, dependent on something that Elon has been wrong about for seven years. THIS time, he's got it figured out, right? THIS time their AI team will have the goods to make it a success ... soon? Right?

In the end, Tesla is now being run by very good people, a stellar culture has been imbued, Elon's contributions could actually be hurting on balance.

Yes, mistakes. Let us just forget that the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. Let us forget that the Supercharger network has been so successful that virtually every major NA EV competitor has signed on to use the network. Let us forget that Tesla Energy now has high Gross Margins and high growth, count pled with Virtual Power Plants as operating reality. Let's just concentrate on the missteps and late deliveries , shall we? We certainly would not want to think of the steady reduction in vehicle cost, including those insanely gigantic Gigapresses.
Much better to concentrate on the mistakes and late deliveries. After all the successes are not nearly so important. Much better it is to think of the plentiful supply of Elon missteps.
I might say I'm sorry to be so argumentative, but I'm not. I might even put an /s somewhere but I intend no sarcasm.
Finally, I, too, am irritated with much of Elon's behavior. When I am I think about Jobs, Einstein, H. Ford, N. Tesla, Edison and many more, warped and irritating every one. Every one had failures and stupid moves. That makes it obvious to conclude that 'world changing talent' also has glaring human defects. Those defects invariably include some offensive ones.
We should be better than to focus only on those highly visible defects. Even Isaacson understands that those achievements come at the price of quite strange distortions.