Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah, Capster's question seemed like a good one to me too. I'd love to see increased Megapack sales for Q3 to offset the lower auto production and revenues.

Tesla does not buy LFP cells for its auto products, it buys complete battery packs. They can not be substitued into Megapack products (think of the work to qualify a battery cell alone; now think of the lawsuits in the case of a megapack fire). This has been discussed here literally for years, and is a settled question.

Tesla has even released video of the inside of a Megapack XL showing the cells. Compare that to the LFP pack tear-down shown by Sandy Munro. Still, people want to believe they have a simple magic bullet solution. But as Elon said, "ideas are cheap; execution is hard".

TL;dr No easy substitution of LFP cells between Megapack and Models 3/Y

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712148594743037988

Tesla collect 100% credits for Cyber(4680)Cells

I highly recommend that you read Jordan's entire tweet above from the Limiting Factor. But if you don't, here is the bottom line:

-At this point, it looks like Tesla probably has an excess of cells for the C/T ramp! Hopefully that means they can start ramping the Semi or start converting Model Y or Model 3 to the 4680

 

[insaneoctane]

Those are honestly pretty lackluster and mundane wrap colors for those prices. I've seen a lot of custom wraps in fantastic wild colors (sky blue, orange, Ford yellow, silver stardust, etc), they stood out in parking lots easily, and the few owners I talked to about them paid much less than $7500 to have it done. And why offer white, gray, and black again? Seems very redundant and poorly thought out to me?

These wraps are colored PPF vs vinyl. This likely significantly limits the color gamut available.

 

[capster]

I have thought about it, I have real-world experience in logistics, and I know you can not simply 'walk back the process' in the short time frame you expect. Megapack at Lathrope alone is ~50,000 tons of LFP cells per year. You don't mess with that kind of logistics train without YEARS of planning, and for what? Please provide an estimate of the benefits of your plan, and why you think Tesla has not considered your alternative.

Sheesh. It was a question not an assertion. Given Tesla’s rapid and unanticipated chip switch, it didn’t seem so far fetched that that they might have redirected supply in an anticipated situation. And, frankly, you would have been one of the last people from whom I would have expected these kinds of responses, instead I’d have thought you’d provide your answer directly.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I highly recommend that you read Jordan's entire tweet above from the Limiting Factor. But if you don't, here is the bottom line:

Excess?

Isn't that enough for around 16k CTs. Not to mention that's a total number built there, which doesn't include older gen 1 but may include cells used for MY/CTs already.

Doesn't seem like "excess".

 

[Motor Mouth]

Anybody else surprised by the 4680 acceleration? This is fantastic news! It's been sorta quiet on the battery manufacturing front, but this is the kind of fundamental production ramp that matters the most. CT and Optimus are fun, but to me batteries are the bricks in the wall that will be the foundation of the next stage of sustainable growth.

 

[mongo]

Tesla does not buy LFP cells for its auto products, it buys complete battery packs. They can not be substitued into Megapack products (think of the work to qualify a battery cell alone; now think of the lawsuits in the case of a megapack fire). This has been discussed here literally for years, and is a settled question.

Tesla has even released video of the inside of a Megapack XL showing the cells. Compare that to the LFP pack tear-down shown by Sandy Munro. Still, people want to believe they have a simple magic bullet solution. But as Elon said, "ideas are cheap; execution is hard".

TL;dr No easy substitution of LFP cells between Megapack and Models 3/Y

You cannot swap cells between the two, but you can swap cell production.
CATL makes cells for cars and, I believe, Megapacks. If they are raw material constrained, Tesla could request more of one and less of the other.
I do not think it likely they did so, but it is possible.

 

[kbM3]

Someone took a stab at deriving BYD’s EV profits. If they’re right, they’re much, much lower than Tesla’s. And then obviously BYD would be far less competitive than it might appear.

https://x.com/alojoh/status/1712014850946166978?s=61&t=puvOJqHO8CtyeSYH_P4EgQ

 

[Mike Smith]

So Tesla is able to ramp 4680 much faster than experienced cell maker LG can ramp Ultium, which is much easier. How embarrassing for them. Or could it be that GM just doesn't want the ramp to go fast because they don't really want to sell EVs?

 

[EQC_]

20 millionth 4680 cell produced at Giga Texas
10 millionth was June 16th, 4 months ago.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712141348038488439

A couple thoughts/questions:

Along the lines of the difference in meaning between: "Let's eat, Grandma!" and "Let's eat Grangma!", I find Tesla's statement not quite 100% clear. I think they are saying that Giga Texas just produced Giga Texas's 20 millionth 4680. But, there is just enough ambiguitiy that they could be saying that Tesla just produced their 20 millionth 4680, and it happened to be produced at Giga Texas. But that, I mean that I'm not quite 100% sure that the Kato Road facility's production isn't part of that 20 million total.

Next: didn't we hear that Kato Road is closed for October-December for upgrades? I wonder what the updates will be in terms of individual cell changes as well as production rate....

And finally: do we know what Kato Road's latest production rate was, before the shutdown for upgrades?

 

[UncaNed]

Anybody else surprised by the 4680 acceleration? This is fantastic news! It's been sorta quiet on the battery manufacturing front, but this is the kind of fundamental production ramp that matters the most. CT and Optimus are fun, but to me batteries are the bricks in the wall that will be the foundation of the next stage of sustainable growth.

Indeed! Wonderful news.

We can't exactly extrapolate from this limited data to reckon the rate they can increase cell production capacity, but it's certainly encouraging.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Anybody else surprised by the 4680 acceleration? This is fantastic news! It's been sorta quiet on the battery manufacturing front, but this is the kind of fundamental production ramp that matters the most. CT and Optimus are fun, but to me batteries are the bricks in the wall that will be the foundation of the next stage of sustainable growth.

Not really. We're hitting the fun part of the exponential growth curve. I expect big leaps from now on until we get close to the design capacity at Austin.

 

[Usain]

Excess?

Isn't that enough for around 16k CTs. Not to mention that's a total number built there, which doesn't include older gen 1 but may include cells used for MY/CTs already.

Doesn't seem like "excess".

You really have to read Jordan's tweets to get the full explanation. But he is assuming that the growth in 4680 production will continue at its historical exponential rate. I think that's a good assumption given all we've been hearing about adding more and more lines.

4680 at scale is finally here!

 

[Usain]

So Tesla is able to ramp 4680 much faster than experienced cell maker LG can ramp Ultium, which is much easier. How embarrassing for them. Or could it be that GM just doesn't want the ramp to go fast because they don't really want to sell EVs?

I think GM knows that going too slow on EVs is a sure ticket to bankruptcy.

The problem is that GM partnered with LG Energy. If LG was in any other business they would be bankrupt too. But batteries are such a hot commodity that you don't have to be good at making them. You can deliver crap and still make money.

 

[AudubonB]

Boycotter of the NYTimes Cheapskate that I am, this is as close as I can get to reading the Times's 4/26/54 article. Or you can go to their TimeMachine:

MURRAY HILL, N. J., April 25 -- A solar battery, the first of its kind, which converts useful amounts of the sun's radiation directly and efficiently into electricity, has been constructed here by the Bell Telephone Laboratories. VIEW FULL ARTICLE IN TIMESMACHINE »

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Anybody else surprised by the 4680 acceleration? This is fantastic news! It's been sorta quiet on the battery manufacturing front, but this is the kind of fundamental production ramp that matters the most. CT and Optimus are fun, but to me batteries are the bricks in the wall that will be the foundation of the next stage of sustainable growth.

But...but....according to Gordo, Tesla does not manufacture its own batteries.

 

[mongo]

A couple thoughts/questions:

Along the lines of the difference in meaning between: "Let's eat, Grandma!" and "Let's eat Grangma!", I find Tesla's statement not quite 100% clear. I think they are saying that Giga Texas just produced Giga Texas's 20 millionth 4680. But, there is just enough ambiguitiy that they could be saying that Tesla just produced their 20 millionth 4680, and it happened to be produced at Giga Texas. But that, I mean that I'm not quite 100% sure that the Kato Road facility's production isn't part of that 20 million total.

Next: didn't we hear that Kato Road is closed for October-December for upgrades? I wonder what the updates will be in terms of individual cell changes as well as production rate....

And finally: do we know what Kato Road's latest production rate was, before the shutdown for upgrades?

Understandable, 868k in one week included shots of Kato and Texas, but 1 the millionth cell in January of 22 only included a photo of Kato, and 10 and 20 million only included Texas.

 

[madodel]

Someone took a stab at deriving BYD’s EV profits. If they’re right, they’re much, much lower than Tesla’s. And then obviously BYD would be far less competitive than it might appear.

https://x.com/alojoh/status/1712014850946166978?s=61&t=puvOJqHO8CtyeSYH_P4EgQ

Margins only matter for TSLA. Chinese companies filling acres and acres of fields with dumped EVs is ok as long as production numbers are met, no matter what the losses are.

 

[insaneoctane]

General question for those who track Tesla's progress against their statements from battery day. It's my "gut" that tells me that Tesla is somewhat behind their optimistic goals for the 4860 ramp. I think Tesla set incredibly aggressive develop, transition to production, and production time lines on the 4860 ramp. I think they decided that the physics was mostly solved with DBE and chemistries and it was just engineering the scaling (aggressive assumption). Believe it or not, I would stipulate that Elon felt if everything went well, they might even exceed the plans revealed on battery day. It feels like Tesla is probably behind those internal expectations- maybe even a little behind on the public expectations too, but not significantly. I offer the statement to not have a 2170 "backup plan" for 4860s in Berlin (or something like that) as my evidence. Am I misremembering anything here? Are we still on plan per public statements? I think the Tesla team is amazing and moving at light speed, so no knock against crazy aggressive goals...I just think I (and most in this thread) would benefit from a solid recap of Tesla's progress to put the 20M 4860 cell tweet in context.

 

[elasalle]

General question for those who track Tesla's progress against their statements from battery day. It's my "gut" that tells me that Tesla is somewhat behind their optimistic goals for the 4860 ramp. I think Tesla set incredibly aggressive develop, transition to production, and production time lines on the 4860 ramp. I think they decided that the physics was mostly solved with DBE and chemistries and it was just engineering the scaling (aggressive assumption). Believe it or not, I would stipulate that Elon felt if everything went well, they might even exceed the plans revealed on battery day. It feels like Tesla is probably behind those internal expectations- maybe even a little behind on the public expectations too, but not significantly. I offer the statement to not have a 2170 "backup plan" for 4860s in Berlin (or something like that) as my evidence. Am I misremembering anything here? Are we still on plan per public statements? I think the Tesla team is amazing and moving at light speed, so no knock against crazy aggressive goals...I just think I (and most in this thread) would benefit from a solid recap of Tesla's progress to put the 20M 4860 cell tweet in context.

Battery Day was like Sept 2020 ... so aren't we (in many ways) already 3 years late based on initial assumptions/expectations from battery day? ... so looks like we are finally turning the corner ...
MY, Semi both supposed to take advantage of the 4680 ramp, .....
but 4680 ramp seems to be coming ahead of the upcoming CT ramp.