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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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hmm...I'm not saying overbuild for the purpose of clean hydrogen, it just becomes a side benefit. Here is an old article:


Tony Seba asserts that the cost curve will favor much higher than 200% generation capability. Expecting something like 3x to 5x generating capacity vs the energy need, simply because PV will be so much cheaper than storage.

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What's the issue with this?

The grants state that the hydrogen creation must be clean, i.e. not be made using power from oil/coal, etc.

It's not talking about consumer vehicles, but things like fertilizer, energy storage, ships, aircraft, and petrochemicals from what I skimmed.
Looks like it funds several research "hubs" that pusue different things. Some look reasonable (green H2 for fertilizer), some will be obsolete before they launch (H2 for heavy trucking in Ca), one appears to Indeed be a complete boondoggle to get it passed in the Senate (Grey H2 to somehow sequester carbon in, yes, West Virginia). This last one reminds me of the 'carbon sequestration ' effort by the oil majors...sited in West Texas tapped out oil wells ... where the sequestered CO2 will (entirely coincidentally!!!) liquefy and force to the surface previously unrecoverable crude.
 

Slightly off topic but Lex Fridman will do another pod soon with Elon. Looking forward to listening to them talk
Already there are over 500 suggestions for questions to ask Elon. I've been reading through a ton of them and none have struck me as being really good questions.

There was one that was decent:
"Why do birds suddenly appear, every time you are near?"

But seriously, I think I'm getting really jaded. Is there anything that Elon hasn't already answered? Maybe I've seen him interviewed too much.

I feel like when someone asks Elon a question, I already know what the answer will be. It's kind of like my wife.
 
Already there are over 500 suggestions for questions to ask Elon. I've been reading through a ton of them and none have struck me as being really good questions.

There was one that was decent:
"Why do birds suddenly appear, every time you are near?"

But seriously, I think I'm getting really jaded. Is there anything that Elon hasn't already answered? Maybe I've seen him interviewed too much.

I feel like when someone asks Elon a question, I already know what the answer will be. It's kind of like my wife.
If the answer given before was wrong is it bad to ask it again?
 
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I'm mostly happy with Schwab although I dreaded it when USAA sold their accounts to Schwab. It ended out being seamless, just less convention for international issues than is USAA, with which moving around the world is standard stuff.
What a difference two years later. Someone called Schwab a "hot radioactive mess" which is apt.
Even with their proclaimed 'Private Banking' they are truly horrible if you ahem anything remotely complex:
First, their call center is useless when you reach someone, which takes, on average 2-5 minutes;
Second, It is impossible to assess the tax consequences of a proposed trade priority to execution, much less evaluating differing recognition choices. Most decent brokers have a handy tool to assess such choices before execution;
Third, Almost nobody seems to understand the concept of the second one so one needs to explain basic accounting;
Fourth, heaven forbid an international transaction. That is almost laughably primitive and even the transfer desk itself is quite ignorant;
Fifth, If you have any, repeat any, mostly complex transaction needs 'fuggedaboudit'.
Sixth, OTOH, ignorance is bliss. They do execute, for good or poor, they execute on basic trades.
I am now in the process of moving all my Schwab business to JP Morgan. They're not perfect but they'r not virgins in coping with basic domestic US and international business.
Note: Their ineptness has just cost me some significant coinage, but most of all due to their inability to actual execute a transaction with correct identification of payee and recipient, not to mention not knowing what IBAN, SWIFT codes and ABA mean, when each is applicable and how to identify payee and payor. Should those be difficult to understand?
Note 2: I am angry now, but time is unlikely to change my perspective to being less irritated.
Note 3: Back during my international banking, trading room days I would have dismissed the lot of these clowns for incompetence. Today, with real time tools readily available, I would never have let any of these loose in contact with a client.

Lastly, selling some TSLA to fund a vanity project does occasion some core recognition of what happens with a 15:1 split and passage of fruitful years. I may live to minimize the idiocy of my decisions, but I am doing my share to defray the US national deficit for this year.
 
I'm not arguing for hydrogen...anyways...
My post was support for your argument not in opposition to it.

You correctly stated that we would end up using more than 100% generation capacity for multiple reasons, I just pulled in another take on it that says that the optimum may be in the 3x to 5x range. It's only a projection so costs down the road remain to be seen. Maybe 2x works in some locals or maybe the price ratio for PV vs Batteries changes so that storage isn't so prohibitive.

End result, you and I are on the same side of the argument.
 
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This is just the United States:

I count 4 new battery factories coming online in the US alone in 2024. Stellantis, GM, Gotion, One Circle.

There's 8+ Ford, GM, Hyundai, Stellantis, Tesla (Lithium Refining), LG Energy, Panasonic, Redwood Materials new battery factories in 2025.


I'm reading that we're going to reach 1 TWH capacity for battery manufacturing in 2024 from Benchmark Mineral.
 
Pretty sure 2024 is going to take the cake

For clarity, is it good FOR US when 2024 takes the cake? In one of those local carnival cake-walk things, the winner gets to take the cake...so I get that 2024 is going to be winning the contest for the wildest year, as you noted. But, for the rest of us...are we missing out on a good cake so we're losing? Or maybe we'd be better off not eating a(nother) whole cake, so we get to win right along with 2024?

Really, I must know: What do you know about the wild things to come in 2024, and will it be good for us here or not? And also, if we're good, can we take turns with your time machine?
 
For clarity, is it good FOR US when 2024 takes the cake? In one of those local carnival cake-walk things, the winner gets to take the cake...so I get that 2024 is going to be winning the contest for the wildest year, as you noted. But, for the rest of us...are we missing out on a good cake so we're losing? Or maybe we'd be better off not eating a(nother) whole cake, so we get to win right along with 2024?

Really, I must know: What do you know about the wild things to come in 2024, and will it be good for us here or not? And also, if we're good, can we take turns with your time machine?

I'm not prescient. Also, probably not autistic (like some people here who are).

I will say, in order to be helpful, to please observe the news right now and read between the lines in regards to what Tesla and friends are doing for us all...for quite some time.
 
I'm not prescient. Also, probably not autistic (like some people here who are).

I will say, in order to be helpful, to please observe the news right now and read between the lines in regards to what Tesla and friends are doing for us all...for quite some time.
While I see that I also wish I had listened to Elon recommending to stay out of margin :)

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1601075815927554048 December 2022 mhm maybe shouldn't have listened for first six months after that but then :)
 
While I see that I also wish I had listened to Elon recommending to stay out of margin :)

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1601075815927554048 December 2022 mhm maybe shouldn't have listened for first six months after that but then :)

We might be either talking about two different things, but I'll take a chance at responding to your really abstract response.

Q - Have you ever put 8B people on your back and said, "I got this"? do you think that might be a complicated scenario to play out? maybe heavy on your shoulders? dangerous to your family and friends?
 
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Excellent X thread by Larry Goldberg.
I'll admit to being one who has been hoping for a small stock buyback. But it's hard to find faults with Larry's analysis. This plus the lingering threat of tough economic times lasting longer than has been forecast (and Elon explicitly stating he sees the same) leads me to think the possibility of a stock buyback in the near future is very low.

 
This is just the United States:

I count 4 new battery factories coming online in the US alone in 2024. Stellantis, GM, Gotion, One Circle.

There's 8+ Ford, GM, Hyundai, Stellantis, Tesla (Lithium Refining), LG Energy, Panasonic, Redwood Materials new battery factories in 2025.


I'm reading that we're going to reach 1 TWH capacity for battery manufacturing in 2024 from Benchmark Mineral.
Gotion for one has enormous opposition in the Michigan township that is the intended location,
Ford’s plant with CATL is facing huge opposition due to Chinese role and is at the moment suspended. It is far from certain that all,of the announced plants actually open at all, and fewer that will see 2024 scaled production. Really, this story needs plant by plant specific estimates.
 
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Gotion for one has enormous opposition in the Michigan township that is the intended location,
Ford’s plant with CATL is facing huge opposition due to Chimese role and is at the moment suspended. It is far from certain that all,of the announced plants actually open at all, and fewer that will see 2024 scaled production. Really, this story needs plant by plant specific estimates.
I was just watching a video about a huge Hyundai plant being built in Georgia, which also talked about other vehicle manufacturing in the American south. My wife commented, "Funny how none of these plants are being built near Detroit". Funny indeed.